Newsday Insider Blog Opines About Smith

[sturt]

http://weblogs.newsday.com/sports/basketba...n_berger_4.html

....josh smith, IMHO, is not worth the kind of money he has been seeking and should take the $60 mil the Hawks have on the table before they pull it off the table....

Of course, the $64,000 question... which is probably a $2,000,000 question is whether the offer is 5 years or 6 years... as well as whether that includes or doesn't include incentives, as well as whether there are team or player option years involved.

[HawksFan87]

It was probably 60 mill before everyone else signed, now they have no chocie but to offer him the 12 mil he asked for, before he ups the price...

[Admin]

It was probably 60 mill before everyone else signed, now they have no chocie but to offer him the 12 mil he asked for, before he ups the price...

Except for the fact that he has no power here unless he signs overseas which seems extremely unlikely for him. Worst case scenario (other than that) for the Hawks is that he signs the QO and has to play his butt off this year trying to look good going into FA next year. The Hawks get the benefit of his best play and can trade him during the season or let him walk at the end of the year and use the cap room on someone else.

[DrReality]

I'm leaning in that direction. He is talented, but he is also immature and that makes a tricky situation for a young guy with a lot of money that is sour on the coach. Chances that it adds up to an attitude problem is sizeable.

[Walt]

It was probably 60 mill before everyone else signed, now they have no chocie but to offer him the 12 mil he asked for, before he ups the price...

The QO threat isn't leverage for a team with our recent track record, our ownership group, our coach (that JS isn't fond of at least), that just lost Childress.

If JS takes the QO his trade value diminishes significantly. While any team that trades for him keeps his bird rights that isn't the end all for a then 23 year old who likely would want his next contract to end around 27-28 anyhow.

W

[Buzzard]

I'm leaning in that direction. He is talented, but he is also immature and that makes a tricky situation for a young guy with a lot of money that is sour on the coach. Chances that it adds up to an attitude problem is sizeable.

I disagree. The ASG has all the leverage, this is why Josh is called a restricted free agent. Josh's only real options:

Take what the Spirit is offering.

Work out a acceptable SNT.

Take the QO.

Smoove needs to accept the fact that he is not worth more than a player like Prince right now; and just get this thing over with....

[crimedog]

Except for the fact that he has no power here unless he signs overseas which seems extremely unlikely for him. Worst case scenario (other than that) for the Hawks is that he signs the QO and has to play his butt off this year trying to look good going into FA next year. The Hawks get the benefit of his best play and can trade him during the season or let him walk at the end of the year and use the cap room on someone else.

You realize that if he takes the QO, he becomes a UFA and if he is traded the team that he is traded to doesn't get his bird rights, right?

If the Hawks aren't happy with whatever offers they are getting now, they won't be happy when teams are going to be trading for a 2 month rental.

If he takes the QO, we lose him for nothing at the end of the season.

[jhay610]

QO = Apocalypse. The absolute worst thing that could happen. This time next year there would be no one left on this board.

[sturt]

QO = Apocalypse. The absolute worst thing that could happen. This time next year there would be no one left on this board.

Your point is well taken, but just so there's some understanding that there are disasters and then there are apolalypses:

Trading the first Smith... Steve... for one of the true enigmas, dare I say "villians," of the NBA of the late 90s, Isaiah Rider proved to be a mistake of apocolyptical proportions. It wasn't just a bad trade because of what we lost... it was a really bad trade because of what we received in return. I believe it was the major determinant in pointing us toward where we ended up... at the bottom of the league.

Losing the second Smith... Josh... at worst wouldn't put another headcase on the roster, but just create a little additional cap room. Disaster, yes, but not to the degree of apocalypse.

(That's coming from someone who agrees with PHI and LAC that Josh would be worth the $14 or even $15 mil, so if I can find some silver lining, anyone should.)

Edited July 31, 2008 by sturt

[Admin]

You realize that if he takes the QO, he becomes a UFA and if he is traded the team that he is traded to doesn't get his bird rights, right?

If the Hawks aren't happy with whatever offers they are getting now, they won't be happy when teams are going to be trading for a 2 month rental.

If he takes the QO, we lose him for nothing at the end of the season.

I'm not sure if it works this way in basketball like it does in baseball but I would imagine that the team trading for Smith could give him a new contract. If not, at least they will be able to have a few months where they can try and convince him that this is the place he should stay. I do think that we would still get something of value for him and we might get a lot of value, depending on a lot of variables.

[exodus]

(That's coming from someone who agrees with PHI and LAC that Josh would be worth the $14 or even $15 mil, so if I can find some silver lining, anyone should.)

What is your source that said Philly and the Clipps thought Smith was worth $14-15 million? Do you have some kind of inside info with those two organizations that you have been keeping secret?

Edited July 31, 2008 by exodus

[mrhonline]

QO = Apocalypse. The absolute worst thing that could happen. This time next year there would be no one left on this board.

Not necessarily - the Hawks would still be able to offer more years.

However, it almost certainly means they'd have to pay MORE for Smith than he's asking for now.

[mudderfudder77]

I'm not sure if it works this way in basketball like it does in baseball but I would imagine that the team trading for Smith could give him a new contract. If not, at least they will be able to have a few months where they can try and convince him that this is the place he should stay. I do think that we would still get something of value for him and we might get a lot of value, depending on a lot of variables.

According to Larry Coon's FAQ - if Smith signs the QO, the earliest he can be traded is Dec 15th and he would have to agree to the trade. Once agreeing to the trade Smith would lose all Bird rights. He could only re-sign with the traded team if they had cap room or used MLE/LLE/etc. He would be an unrestricted FA without any Bird Rights at the end of the season.

I don't know how much value he would have in that case.

[crimedog]

I'm not sure if it works this way in basketball like it does in baseball but I would imagine that the team trading for Smith could give him a new contract. If not, at least they will be able to have a few months where they can try and convince him that this is the place he should stay. I do think that we would still get something of value for him and we might get a lot of value, depending on a lot of variables.

Ex' or Mr.H can correct me if I'm wrong but the team that trades for him has to treat him like a complete UFA at the end of the season. They can't offer him anything that another team can't (and they wouldn't have his bird rights so if they couldn't go over the cap).

I guess they could try to convince him to stay, but they'd have to be pretty confident that he'd resign with them in the offseason when they'd have to have the cap room to offer him a big deal. If they were confident they could sign him, why give up value?

I think thats the reason people are looking at this as a potential disaster.

[crimedog]

According to Larry Coon's FAQ - if Smith signs the QO, the earliest he can be traded is Dec 15th and he would have to agree to the trade. Once agreeing to the trade Smith would lose all Bird rights. He could only re-sign with the traded team if they had cap room or used MLE/LLE/etc. He would be an unrestricted FA without any Bird Rights at the end of the season.

I don't know how much value he would have in that case.

... and this confirms my previous post.

If ASG thinks that Smith taking the QO is likely, they need to find any deal that they feel can offer some value and do it ASAP, otherwise they need to sign him.

[exodus]

i guess this would be a good thread to speculate about who would have the cap room available and what free agents would be available to compete with Smith in the unlikely event he takes the QO.

Here is a list from an earlier thread.

1) Kobe Bryant – Los Angeles Lakers

Early Termination Option: owed $47.8 million thru 2011

You may have heard of this guy, he's pretty good. However, attempting to predict what Kobe might be thinking or which way he might be leaning 11 months from now is an exercise in futility.

2) Carlos Boozer – Utah Jazz

Player Option: owed $12.6 million for 2009-2010 season

He's just 26-years-old and has already proven himself an elite NBA talent, worthy of max-money, after averaging 21 points and 11 boards per game over the last two seasons.

3) Shawn Marion – Miami HEAT

Unrestricted

If you study the statistics, The Matrix has been one of the NBA's most productive and efficient players this decade.

4) Steve Nash – Phoenix Suns

Team Option: owed $13.1 million for the 2009-2010 season

Very safe to assume that the Suns will pick up the relatively affordable $13 million dollar option and keep the former MVP in the Valley of the Sun for at least one more season. Nash would then become and unrestricted FA following the '09-'10 season, joining the unbelievable free-agent class of 2010.

5) Mehmet Okur – Utah Jazz

Early Termination Option – owed $9 million for the 2009-2010 season

It was considered somewhat of a gamble when the Jazz offered Okur a big contract after he served as a role player in Detroit during the early stages of his career, but that gamble has paid off handsomely for Utah as Okur has developed into a versatile and productive big man. With Boozer, Okur, and Kyle Korver all possibly opting out of their contracts next summer, Utah will have some very tough financial decisions to make.

6) Allen Iverson – Denver Nuggets

Unrestricted

Iverson has been a warrior and an absolute offensive force throughout his entire 13-year NBA career, but the fact of the matter is the diminutive playmaker will turn 34 next June - and there are a lot of miles on those resilient bones.

7) Ron Artest – Sacramento Kings

Unrestricted

It was assumed that Artest would opt out of the final year of his current contract and become a free-agent this summer, as he had claimed many times he would do just that. But he surprisingly choose to play out the '08-'09 season in Sac-Town, and then stated he immediately regretted that decision…

8) Lamar Odom – Los Angeles Lakers

Unrestricted

Odom seemed to really find his niche towards the end of last season as the third option behind Kobe and Pau Gasol.

9) Hedo Turkoglu – Orlando Magic

Early Termination Option: owed $7.4 million for the 2008-2009 season

Turkoglu is fresh off a career season which netted him the league's Most Improved Player award.

10) Andrew Bynum – Los Angeles Lakers

Restricted

Placing him in the Top-10, above many extremely established and well-respected veterans, is a speculative selection. ****

Just Missed the Cut:

Rasheed Wallace (Unrestricted) – Yes, he racks up technicals, but even at his advanced age, he also piles up points, rebounds, assists, etc. Sheed is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.

Jason Kidd (Unrestricted) – For much of his prime, he was the best point guard on the planet. Now, after being embarrassed by Chris Paul during the playoffs, he is hoping to prove he still has enough gas left in the tank

Andre Miller (Unrestricted) – Miller was the Sixers' best player for much of last season, keying a run to the playoffs. With Elton Brand on board, expect his assist numbers to keep rising.

Richard "Rip" Hamilton (ETO - Early Termination Option) – Hamilton has been a remarkably consistent and productive performer on a Pistons team that has advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals during each and every one of the six seasons he has spent in Detroit.

Mike Bibby (Unrestricted) – Once considered an elite PG, Bibby has struggled with injuries and inconsistency the last few seasons.

Second-Tier FA's:

Jamal Crawford (ETO) – Expect a big year from Crawford next season under new coach Mike D'Antoni, as Crawford will be encouraged to shoot the ball any time he touches it (and Jamal never needs much encouragement). Ironically, the Knicks may actually prefer that he opts out, which would enable them to free up additional cap space in 2010.

Eddy Curry (ETO) – It appeared he was developing into an All-Star after averaging 19.5 points and 7 rebounds per game as a 24-year-old in '06-'07, but he took a huge step backwards last season with Zach Randolph in town. Curry's career is at a crossroads…

Drew Gooden (Unrestricted) – Maybe if he signs a nice contract, he'll buy a razor and shave off that patch of hair on the back of his neck?

Chris Wilcox (Unrestricted) – The talent has always been there, but the desire and determination have been questioned.

Anderson Varejao (Player Option) – The last time he attempted to negotiate a contract with the Cavs, things got ugly.

Al Harrington (Player Option) – Hasn't quite found his niche in Golden State. It will be interesting to see how Don Nelson incorporates the new pieces (Corey Maggette and Ronny Turiaf) into the forward rotation.

Best of the Rest:

Unrestricted: Wally Szczerbiak; Brandon Bass; Jeff Foster; Trevor Ariza; Stephon Marbury; Grant Hill; Desmond Mason; Chris Mihm; Zaza Pachulia; Kyle Korver (ETO); Marquis Daniels (Team Option)

Restricted FA's from the 2005 Draft (Andrew Bogut, D Williams and Chris Paul have already been locked up long-term):

David Lee

Marvin Williams

Danny Granger

Raymond Felton

Charlie Villanueva

Hakim Warrick

Jason Maxiell

Nate Robinson

Edited July 31, 2008 by exodus

[Admin]

According to Larry Coon's FAQ - if Smith signs the QO, the earliest he can be traded is Dec 15th and he would have to agree to the trade. Once agreeing to the trade Smith would lose all Bird rights. He could only re-sign with the traded team if they had cap room or used MLE/LLE/etc. He would be an unrestricted FA without any Bird Rights at the end of the season.

I don't know how much value he would have in that case.

Well in that case then unless the team felt absolutely certain that he would re-sign with him we would lose some value with him. I don't like that rule at all, I think that if you trade for a player you should be able to negotiate an extension just like he was your own player all along.

[Admin]

... and this confirms my previous post.

If ASG thinks that Smith taking the QO is likely, they need to find any deal that they feel can offer some value and do it ASAP, otherwise they need to sign him.

I certainly hope that Smith doesn't take the QO. That's a complete failure by both parties if that happens. At the very least they should be able to find a trade for him. I can see this thing dragging out like the Rashard Lewis negotiations did a few years back while Sund was in Seattle but even in that instance Rashard Lewis realized that he could get the most money and years with the Sonics and did finally agree to a deal with them. I hope that is what ends up happening here, although I hope it doesn't take anywhere near that long of course.

[DrReality]

Hawks Feelin' Randy

Sekou Smith of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports today that former Knick Randolph Morris was signed by the Hawks to a one-year contract for the NBA minimum. Morris is tight with Josh Smith (those two and Dwight Howard were the kings of the Atlanta high school basketball scene back in the day) so not only is he happy he found another NBA job, he landed with one of his buddies in his home town.

I'm told Smith isn't going anywhere, by the way. He'll eventually sign there, it's a matter of how long of a committment will Atlanta agree to make with him. Dude is an amazing athletic talent with a ton of potential, but I don't believe he's someone you build around. You build with him, yes. But he's not a centerpiece at this point of his career.

As for Morris, let's see if he finally gets some burn and what he does with it when he gets it. I think he can be a servicable NBA player. He has good footwork and strength. His timing always was off as a Knick but that's mostly because he rarely played. Tough to judge him on what he showed as a Knick.

We talked a lot about this last season and Morris and Renaldo Balkman are two prime examples of it: the Knicks under Isiah Thomas was not a healthy environment for developing young players. David Lee emerged mainly on his own discipline and drive. Nate Robinson, to me, should be a better player with better coaching, but he's another one who has started to grasp the difference between throwing up shots and calling it a warmup to making actual basketball moves that he would in a game and studying other players. He still has a long ways to go.

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[DrReality]

As for Morris, let's see if he finally gets some burn and what he does with it when he gets it. I think he can be a servicable NBA player. He has good footwork and strength. His timing always was off as a Knick but that's mostly because he rarely played. Tough to judge him on what he showed as a Knick.

We talked a lot about this last season and Morris and Renaldo Balkman are two prime examples of it: the Knicks under Isiah Thomas was not a healthy environment for developing young players