Hawks Second Round Picks

[Hawk88]

I confess this is a rant.

Has anyone else noticed that the Hawks might have the worst record of any team for selecting second round talent. The list is amazing.

Solomon Jones, Salim, Cenk Akol, Donta Smith, Royal Ivey, Travis Hansen, D. Anderson, Terence Morris, Hanno Mottola, Scoonie Penn, the list goes on and on.

The bad news ist we draft these guys and then put them on the bench where they waste a roster spot with little to no production. They need to learn to unload these picks or use them on foreign players who can develop without taking up a roster spot and money.

It's one thing to take a flyer in the second round, all the teams do. Its another thing to keep them longer than necessary because you drafted them and want them to succeed so you look smart.

Like Solomon Jones, we are married to the guy because we drafted him. The only thing that I have noticed that has gotten bigger in his game the last two year is his butt. Seriously, his legs and arms are skinny as ever but his butt has expanded.

Salim was another waste which was evident by the end of his firt year. The kid is just a chunker. Why in the world the Hawks had him on the team other than to have an evern worse record is beyond me.

Maybe we learned last year by not having any pics. Maybe we dont' need any pics, we just sign decent proven veteran players and pay them a reasonable salary. We already have a few arguably start players in Johnson, Horford and Smith and some nice additional pieces.

Hawk88

[uga2006]

Very rarely do you find a solid to great pick in the 2nd rd. The 2nd rd. is mainly alot of project picks.

[Packfill]

Very rarely do you find a solid to great pick in the 2nd rd. The 2nd rd. is mainly alot of project picks.

True. That said, it seems the top teams always have late-first and/or second rounders playing meaningful minutes on their rosters:

Boston: Powe, Perkins, Rondo, Big Baby

Detroit: Maxiell, Johnson, Afflalo

Lakers: Walton, Turiaf, Farmar

Spurs: Parker, Ginobili

[AHF]

True. That said, it seems the top teams always have late-first and/or second rounders playing meaningful minutes on their rosters:

Boston: Powe, Perkins, Rondo, Big Baby

Detroit: Maxiell, Johnson, Afflalo

Lakers: Walton, Turiaf, Farmar

Spurs: Parker, Ginobili

Late first round picks are much more common to pan out than second rounders, though. If you are going to count guys like Rondo, drafted #23 overall, you have to count guys like Boris Diaw for the Hawks.

[crimedog]

I think he makes a good point, if you miss one or two decent players its fine, it happens. The problem is that we seem to be unable to get ANY productive players from the second round. In the BK era we took Travis Hansen with 37 before productive players like Blake, Zaza, Mo Williams, James Jones, Kieth Bogans, or Kyle Korver. We had 3 picks in 04 and ended up with Donta, Royal, and Sanikidze at 35, 38, and 43 instead of Duhon and Ariza (I'll admit, not much to find in that draft). We took Salim at 31 ahead of Bass, Turiaf, Ellis, Louis Williams, Gomes, etc. We took Solo at 33 ahead of Craig Smith, Paul Millsap, and Leon Powe, who all do what Shelden Williams was supposed to do as the 5th overall pick in that draft.

BK just didn't seem to understand how to evaluate project players, he didn't really have a philosophy in terms of selecting for talent or need. We didn't always target the most athletic players, ready to contribute players, or skilled players... he just picked.

It hurt our team because it was a big reason for our chronic lack of depth. If you are going to stock your bench with second rounders, they have to be productive. Instead, we would have 4 guys on the pine who could do absolutely nothing on the court. The biggest successes were Royal Ivey and the much maligned Salim.

The good news is that BK is gone and Sund, for all his flaws, seems to have a better idea of how to fill a bench.

[Packfill]

Late first round picks are much more common to pan out than second rounders, though. If you are going to count guys like Rondo, drafted #23 overall, you have to count guys like Boris Diaw for the Hawks.

Boris would definitely count. I think once you get into the twenties it becomes more difficult to identify NBA talent.

[exodus]

True. That said, it seems the top teams always have late-first and/or second rounders playing meaningful minutes on their rosters:

Boston: Powe, Perkins, Rondo, Big Baby

Detroit: Maxiell, Johnson, Afflalo

Lakers: Walton, Turiaf, Farmar

Spurs: Parker, Ginobili

The Hawks second round picks were very high and they passed on some very useful players. Since 2004 we could have had Monta, Lou Williams, Blatche, Milsap, Duhon (passed over twice), Ariza, Turiaf, Brandon Bass, Gomes, Daniel Gibson, .... ugh. Nice job BK.

[Swish]

You even left out a few ex. Let me list them all so we can re up our pain...;)

Amir Johnson

Monta freaking Ellis

Lou Williams

Paul Millsap

Chris Duhon

Trevor Ariza

Ronny Turiaf

Brandon Bass

Ryan Gomes

Boobie!

Leon "Playoffs" Powe

PJ Tucker

Dee Brown

Ouch.

[mrhonline]

Very rarely do you find a solid to great pick in the 2nd rd. The 2nd rd. is mainly alot of project picks.

Enduring criticism about 2nd round picks tries my patience.

The success rate of players even being in an NBA rotation four years later is something in the teens, IIRC.

I'd be fine with the NBA doing away with the 2nd round altogether, and replacing it with a multi-round NBDL draft in which teams get to place stock their NBDL team.

[exodus]

Enduring criticism about 2nd round picks tries my patience.

The success rate of players even being in an NBA rotation four years later is something in the teens, IIRC.

So what is the success rate when you pick at the top of the second round? I would say it goes up a bit and we picked at the top of the second round 3 years in a row and our success rate was 0.0%. It would have been 4 without the aj trade.

Before the drafts none of us had heard of guys like Ivey and Solomon. But we knew guys like Duhon (starting pg at Duke), Milsap (leading rebounder 3 straight years), LW and Monta (hs phenoms).

Our picks were at the top of the 2nd round each year and we have nothing to show for them. Just another failure for BK.

Edited August 26, 2008 by exodus

[mrhonline]

You just cherrypicked four guys out of total of, what, 90 players?

Spare me.

[tmac13]

You just cherrypicked four guys out of total of, what, 90 players?

Spare me.

I think it should be reasonable to think in all of BK's drafts that he would pick one useful player with all the high 2nd rounders we had. I know this is beating a dead horse but considering where BK drafted in both the 1st and 2nd rounds he has to be considered one of the worst talent evaluators ever to be a GM.

[exodus]

You just cherrypicked four guys out of total of, what, 90 players?

Spare me.

My list was a lot longer than that.

Monta, Lou Williams, Blatche, Milsap, Duhon (passed over twice), Ariza, Turiaf, Brandon Bass, Gomes, Daniel Gibson

I just pointed out the well known ones.

But lets look at your claim.

The success rate of players even being in an NBA rotation four years later is something in the teens, IIRC

So let's go with that. Ill assume a middle of the second round and 15% for arguments sake.

Now what does the rate go to when the pick is in the top 5 of the second round? I will say 23% as a guess, being conservative.

Now let's look at the odds of getting ONE solid rotation player picking at the top of the second round for 3 consecutive years. I am sure there is a quick way to figure this out but i would guess there would at least be a 50% chance of getting at least one solid player in the top of the second round for 3 consecutive years.

But you act like it is such a longshot as to not even be worth talking about. That is simply being in denial.

Edited August 26, 2008 by exodus

[Swish]

MrH, I gotta respectfully disagree. I listed 13 guys off the top of my head that are easily better than Solomon Jones, Donta Smith, Royal Ivey and Cenk Akyol.

So, Arenas, Boozer, Rashard Lewis, Manu Ginobili, Mike Redd, Nick Van Exel, PJ Brown, Mehmet Okur, Stephen Jackson, Cuttino Mobley, Antonio Davis, Mo Williams, Kyle Korver, Anderson Varejao, Toni Kukoc, and others don't count as successful I guess then?

EDIT-just saw Ex's latest. MrH is one of my favorite posters but here he appears a little off the wall. I mean really, at least half of the guys even in the last six years are still in the NBA.

Edited August 26, 2008 by Swish

[AHF]

My list was a lot longer than that.

I just pointed out the well known ones.

But lets look at your claim.

So let's go with that. Ill assume a middle of the second round and 15% for arguments sake.

Now what does the rate go to when the pick is in the top 5 of the second round? I will say 23% as a guess, being conservative.

Now let's look at the odds of getting ONE solid rotation player picking at the top of the second round for 3 consecutive years. I am sure there is a quick way to figure this out but i would guess there would at least be a 50% chance of getting at least one solid player in the top of the second round for 3 consecutive years.

But you act like it is such a longshot as to not even be worth talking about. That is simply being in denial.

Going back a few years and looking at a five year window the numbers look like:

2006

James White

Steve Novack

Solomon Jones

Paul Davis

PJ Tucker

2005

Salim Stoudamire

Daniel Ewing

Brandon Bass*

CJ Miles

Ricky Sanchez

2004

Anderson Varajao*

Jackson Vroman

PJ Ramos

Lionel Chalmers

Donte Smith

2003

Marceij Lampe

Jason Kapono*

Luke Walton*

Jerome Beasley

Sofoklis Schortsanitis

2002

Steve Logan

Roger Mason

Robert Archibald

Vincent Yarborough

Dan Gadzurich*

That is 5 of 25 or 20%. That is pretty close to where you predicted, although most of these guys are fairly deep role players.

Billy Knight had 3 top 5 second round picks. If the odds of landing a useful player with one of those picks is 20% then the odds of missing out on all three picks is 64/125 or roughly 52%. It is something to criticize Knight over but isn't something to get all that worked up about, IMO.

[exodus]

Going back a few years and looking at a five year window the numbers look like:

2006

James White

Steve Novack

Solomon Jones

Paul Davis

PJ Tucker

2005

Salim Stoudamire

Daniel Ewing

Brandon Bass*

CJ Miles

Ricky Sanchez

2004

Anderson Varajao*

Jackson Vroman

PJ Ramos

Lionel Chalmers

Donte Smith

2003

Marceij Lampe

Jason Kapono*

Luke Walton*

Jerome Beasley

Sofoklis Schortsanitis

2002

Steve Logan

Roger Mason

Robert Archibald

Vincent Yarborough

Dan Gadzurich*

That is 5 of 25 or 20%. That is pretty close to where you predicted, although most of these guys are fairly deep role players.

Billy Knight had 3 top 5 second round picks. If the odds of landing a useful player with one of those picks is 20% then the odds of missing out on all three picks is 64/125 or roughly 52%. It is something to criticize Knight over but isn't something to get all that worked up about, IMO.

Keep in mind that the Hawks had 3 other 2nd round picks during the 3 years in question. Therefore just blind luck should have landed the Hawks at least one useful player but Mr H acts like 2nd round picks shouldn't count for anything. a quality GM should be able to come up with at least one or 2 decent players with the picks we had.

Roger Mason played a big role for the Wizards and got signed by the Spurs. CJ Miles was reupped and Big Baby got some time for the C's.

Edited August 26, 2008 by exodus

[TnDawg]

I think he makes a good point, if you miss one or two decent players its fine, it happens. The problem is that we seem to be unable to get ANY productive players from the second round. In the BK era we took Travis Hansen with 37 before productive players like Blake, Zaza, Mo Williams, James Jones, Kieth Bogans, or Kyle Korver. We had 3 picks in 04 and ended up with Donta, Royal, and Sanikidze at 35, 38, and 43 instead of Duhon and Ariza (I'll admit, not much to find in that draft). We took Salim at 31 ahead of Bass, Turiaf, Ellis, Louis Williams, Gomes, etc. We took Solo at 33 ahead of Craig Smith, Paul Millsap, and Leon Powe, who all do what Shelden Williams was supposed to do as the 5th overall pick in that draft.

BK just didn't seem to understand how to evaluate project players, he didn't really have a philosophy in terms of selecting for talent or need. We didn't always target the most athletic players, ready to contribute players, or skilled players... he just picked.

It hurt our team because it was a big reason for our chronic lack of depth. If you are going to stock your bench with second rounders, they have to be productive. Instead, we would have 4 guys on the pine who could do absolutely nothing on the court. The biggest successes were Royal Ivey and the much maligned Salim.

The good news is that BK is gone and Sund, for all his flaws, seems to have a better idea of how to fill a bench.

I can't believe that I was considering cherry picking this topic...... You are right on point here though.....BK's biggest flaws are evident.......Sund is at least trying to improve the quality of guys on the bench. I am unfamiliar with his record as far as previous 2nd round picks. Will just have to wait and see in the future.

[AHF]

Keep in mind that the Hawks had 3 other 2nd round picks during the 3 years in question. Therefore just blind luck should have landed the Hawks at least one useful player but Mr H acts like 2nd round picks shouldn't count for anything. a quality GM should be able to come up with at least one or 2 decent players with the picks we had.

I agree that a normal GM using normal NBA scouting methods should have landed at least 1 useful player but the odds of not getting any useful players with those picks is reasonably high to the point where I wouldn't consider that a make or break criteria for evaluating BK. That is just one more flaw.

Roger Mason played a big role for the Wizards and got signed by the Spurs. CJ Miles was reupped and Big Baby got some time for the C's.

Mason should have been flagged. Miles hasn't done anything more productive than being resigned as far as I can tell, though. If the Hawks resign Salim or Solomon they won't be any more successful. Big Baby wasn't a part of these drafts but was productive as were other guys taken in other years like Gilbert Arenas.

[exodus]

I agree that a normal GM using normal NBA scouting methods should have landed at least 1 useful player but the odds of not getting any useful players with those picks is reasonably high to the point where I wouldn't consider that a make or break criteria for evaluating BK. That is just one more flaw.

I agree 2nd rounders aren't make or break but they can't be dismissed.

Miles hasn't done anything more productive than being resigned as far as I can tell, though.

Miles f'd up by not going to college. I remember watching him in the McD's game. His basketball skills and IQ were far ahead of his physical development. He would have been a star in college IMO but wasn't physically ready to go to the NBA straight out of HS.

He played only 11 minutes per game but keep in mind it is harder to get minutes on a 50 win team. Even with his limited time he put up 77 threes and shot 39% from 3. He has a good game off the dribble too. If he ever fills out he could be a quality player.

I would take him here in a heartbeat.

Big Baby wasn't a part of these drafts bu

haha i forgot his first name was Glen not Paul.

Edited August 26, 2008 by exodus

[mrhonline]

That is 5 of 25 or 20%. That is pretty close to where you predicted, although most of these guys are fairly deep role players.

Billy Knight had 3 top 5 second round picks. If the odds of landing a useful player with one of those picks is 20% then the odds of missing out on all three picks is 64/125 or roughly 52%. It is something to criticize Knight over but isn't something to get all that worked up about, IMO.

20% is actually worse than I thought it would be. And it gets worse the further you go into the draft because of all the stupid "stash in Europe" picks that have an even worse chance of success.

Also, don't forget that Royal Ivey is still in the league, and figures to be a role player in Philly, just as he was in Milwaukee and Atlanta. So that helps Knight's numbers out a bit. Not that I care about helping Knight out, it's just that it's a little silly to blame him for 2nd round failures when the guy drafts Shelden Williams at #5.

---

I still stand by my assertion that having an NBDL draft would yield results at least equal to the crappy 15% rate (or whatever it is) of 2nd rounders lately. Plus, then you'd actually get to see guys in extended minutes, and not just in practices.

Or maybe stop the draft at 46. (Lottery teams get 2 picks). And then anyone who didn't get drafted could declare themselves eligible for the NBDL draft... Just a thought, that's all.