We need to take care of Marvin's contract now

[AtLaS]

Stats also don't tell the whole story either as it was obvious that Marvin was better in his 2nd year and then made an even bigger jump for most of his 3rd year.

How? Marvin sucked in his second year. He came back from the injury and was GIVEN a starting spot based upon his draft position. He had an inconsistent jumper all year. He finished inside at the worst rate of his entire career. Increased minutes are the ONLY reason his numbers went up.

Last year, he improved. He improved the consistency on his jumper (pre all-star break) and showed a few moves that he didn't have before, but wouldn't consistenly use them.

[Admin]

That actually proves my point even further. Since Smith was an RFA, he could negotiate with other teams and if we didn't come to terms he could bolt after next year. Marvin CAN'T negotiate with other teams so there is no reason AT ALL to overpay, or offer him more than we offered Smith. Honestly, that's a slap in the face to Josh, and stupid anyway to offer MW 10 million per when he is clearly not worth that..

At this point next year Marvin will be a RFA and in the exact same position as Smoove was this year. Right now we have probably have a chance to lock him up long term to a team friendly deal without worrying if someone might throw some crazy contract at him, like Olympiakos for example.

[AHF]

Of course it's technically correct, but my point is that just because someones minutes increase it doesn't mean that their stats will. If it were that simple then you could simply increase the minutes of your best per players and be set.

Stats also don't tell the whole story either as it was obvious that Marvin was better in his 2nd year and then made an even bigger jump for most of his 3rd year.

I think a big factor his 2nd year was injuries personally but most players do increase their stats in proportion to their minutes when they are moving from limited minutes to more regular minutes.

The only thing that changed significantly statistically was the increase in assists and TOs. His scoring efficiency was almost the same (little lower fg%, improved ft%, same 3pt%).

[Admin]

How? Marvin sucked in his second year. He came back from the injury and was GIVEN a starting spot based upon his draft position. He had an inconsistent jumper all year. He finished inside at the worst rate of his entire career. Increased minutes are the ONLY reason his numbers went up.

Last year, he improved. He improved the consistency on his jumper (pre all-star break) and showed a few moves that he didn't have before, but wouldn't consistenly use them.

I'm so sick of hearing that his increased minutes is the only reason why his numbers went up. For the millionth time, it's not just as simple as increasing a players minutes to increase their stats at the same rate. For example,

Points per minute:

Year 1 - 0.34

Year 2 - 0.39

Year 3 - 0.43

Do you notice a trend there? He increased his scoring at nearly the same rate every year. Had he not improved his points per minute he would have averaged 11.5 PPG instead of 13.1 PPG in his 2nd year. Even if his minutes don't increase this year, using the same progression we should expect 16.6 PPG at 0.48 ppm, however I expect his minutes will be increased to about 38 this year which would put him at 18.2 PPG.

Want to take a guess what Josh Smith's points per minute were in his 1st year? 0.35

How about his points per minute in his 4th year? 0.48

So yeah, let's continue to think that Josh Smith has made such tremendous strides while his scoring almost exactly mirrors what Marvin Williams has done.

Now, I realize that Josh Smith is a much better shot blocker and impact player, but he also shoots a worse percentage almost across the board and turns the ball over twice as much. With that being said I'm still asking for a contract that is 13 million less over 5 years than what Josh Smith got and you think that's not a smart idea? Please!

[Admin]

I think a big factor his 2nd year was injuries personally but most players do increase their stats in proportion to their minutes when they are moving from limited minutes to more regular minutes.

The only thing that changed significantly statistically was the increase in assists and TOs. His scoring efficiency was almost the same (little lower fg%, improved ft%, same 3pt%).

Sure most players do, but it's not an automatic thing that you can just count on. Not only that but in my post just above this I noted how his scoring rate has gone up each year and is almost exactly on track with what Josh Smith has done.

The only areas that disappointed me in Marvin 2nd year were his offensive rebounds went down and his FG% went down. Perhaps the rebounding was because of the injury, but either way that was a disappointment. Luckily he has increased his defensive rebounding to help make up for that.

[Diesel]

I'm so sick of hearing that his increased minutes is the only reason why his numbers went up. For the millionth time, it's not just as simple as increasing a players minutes to increase their stats at the same rate. For example,

Points per minute:

Year 1 - 0.34

Year 2 - 0.39

Year 3 - 0.43

Do you notice a trend there? He increased his scoring at nearly the same rate every year. Had he not improved his points per minute he would have averaged 11.5 PPG instead of 13.1 PPG in his 2nd year. Even if his minutes don't increase this year, using the same progression we should expect 16.6 PPG at 0.48 ppm, however I expect his minutes will be increased to about 38 this year which would put him at 18.2 PPG.

Want to take a guess what Josh Smith's points per minute were in his 1st year? 0.35

How about his points per minute in his 4th year? 0.48

So yeah, let's continue to think that Josh Smith has made such tremendous strides while his scoring almost exactly mirrors what Marvin Williams has done.

Now, I realize that Josh Smith is a much better shot blocker and impact player, but he also shoots a worse percentage almost across the board and turns the ball over twice as much. With that being said I'm still asking for a contract that is 13 million less over 5 years than what Josh Smith got and you think that's not a smart idea? Please!

Here you are again.... Trying to justify Marvin with Josh's offense. :sad:

Who here or anywhere has ever said we ought to lock Smoove up because of his offense?

IF there's one thing about Josh that we could change, it would be his offense!!!

Therefore, you need to come to the realization that Josh Smith's offense is not why we wanted to lock him up.

Henceforth, You arguing us locking up Marvin on the basis of his offense being comparable to Smoove's offense is terrible logic.

[Traceman]

If he has a break out season we already have him under contract and it will probably cost us less to get him this year then what it will next summer.

Also we can avoid the alienation problems that Smith and Chill felt.

I think we should offer him 5 yrs/$45M and see if he bites. If his agent countered with 5yrs/$50M, I'd meet him in the middle at 5 yrs/$47.5M. I MIGHT go up to $50M depending on how he looks in preseason this year. Anything over 5 yrs/$50M, I'd definitely take my chances in restricted free agency.

I think that Marvin improved significantly from year 2 to year 3 (just as J Smoove did) and I think he will take another jump this year. If he can be a 17/6 guy as our 3rd option (or 4th option depending on Horford) while shooting a good percentage and playing good D, I think he is worth an average salary of $9M a year. Anything he does over that, we are getting a bargain in my opinion.

[Admin]

Here you are again.... Trying to justify Marvin with Josh's offense. :sad:

Who here or anywhere has ever said we ought to lock Smoove up because of his offense?

IF there's one thing about Josh that we could change, it would be his offense!!!

Therefore, you need to come to the realization that Josh Smith's offense is not why we wanted to lock him up.

Henceforth, You arguing us locking up Marvin on the basis of his offense being comparable to Smoove's offense is terrible logic.

Why is it terrible logic? Marvin is a better on ball defender than Josh Smith is. Josh Smith is obviously a much better shot blocker, but that's the just about the only measurable area where he is better than Marvin.

And again, I'm suggesting that we pay quite a bit less to Marvin over the life of the contract.

Just keep drinking your haterade D, I know it's gonna break your heart when Marvin ends up spending his entire career in Atlanta.

[Swish]

I think Diesel may have a major man crush on Marvin and is very self conscious.

Should we really be comparing MW and JS at all?

[Admin]

I think Diesel may have a major man crush on Marvin and is very self conscious.

Should we really be comparing MW and JS at all?

Anyone who can look at them objectively can see many valid comparisons. Sure Josh Smith is the better player, more of an impact player, and more of an exciting player, but he's not that far ahead of Marvin as a complete package that comparing them is ludicrous.

[AtLaS]

Marvin is a better on ball defender than Josh Smith is.

No, he's not.

[Admin]

No, he's not.

Yes, he is.

[AtLaS]

Anyone who can look at them objectively can see many valid comparisons. Sure Josh Smith is the better player, more of an impact player, and more of an exciting player, but he's not that far ahead of Marvin as a complete package that comparing them is ludicrous.

When has Marvin EVER come close to a 5x5 game the way Smith does more than a few times a year. Scoring, they are close. As a "total package", the comparison is laughable.

[AtLaS]

Yes, he is.

Perhaps at the SF position, but Smith doesn't play SF so it doesn't matter. I'll take Smith the PF defender over Marvin the SF defender ALL day. As would 99% of all NBA fans.

[HawksFan87]

Only thing Marvin does better than Smoove is shoot jumpers, everything else Smoove is better at.. Comparing the 2 is hilarious anywayz......

and LMAO @ Smoove not being far ahead of Marvin that's a lie lol...

Anywhoo lata....

[crimedog]

Yes, he is.

Substantiate this... would you say Smith is a below average defender at the PF spot? Because I gave a list of half of last seasons' PFs that are almost certainly worse than Smith (no one I considered a push) in the other thread and you didn't disagree. Would you say Marv is an above average defender at his spot?

The other day when I pressed you on this you said that Smith wasn't as good of a perimeter defender but since he isn't a perimeter player that is a silly thing to base your evaluation on.

[Diesel]

Why is it terrible logic? Marvin is a better on ball defender than Josh Smith is.

Good on ball defender is reserved for player like Bowen and Bell who can actually hinder their opponents from scoring. Marvin is a fantastically mediocre defender who gets all this credit for being a good "on Ball" defender because it cannot be quantified. However, when you watch Hawks basketball, you realize that Marvin's defense is not comparable to real "good On Ball defenders".

Marvin plays SF, he has the easiest defensive assignment on the court. He usually draws the player who does the same thing he does, sit in the midcourt and wait for somebody to pass him the ball.

We played Memphis twice:

Memphis (Gay 17 points)

Memphis Gay 29 points

Yeah, I guess that was good on ball defense on Gay... Or was that somebody else's fault.

Deng 22 points.

More good on ball defense?

As you know we could go down the line on and on with all the small forwards that had good games on the Hawks. However, there's no need. You will only bring up more excuses after excuses and after a while, it will be Lue's fault that Gay scored 29 points and it will be Shelden's fault that Deng scored 22... But for you, Marvin will still be a good on ball defender.

I guess if you keep saying it, then Lemmings like Swish will believe it.

[Diesel]

Substantiate this... would you say Smith is a below average defender at the PF spot? Because I gave a list of half of last seasons' PFs that are almost certainly worse than Smith (no one I considered a push) in the other thread and you didn't disagree. Would you say Marv is an above average defender at his spot?

The other day when I pressed you on this you said that Smith wasn't as good of a perimeter defender but since he isn't a perimeter player that is a silly thing to base your evaluation on.

Viola.

Marvin doesn't stop anybody.

Marvin may be a better defender than Bibby but that about it.

[Hawk88]

I am more worried about getting hit by a Meteor than Marvins contract. I am also more worried that Obama could get elected.

Hawk88

[crimedog]

Viola.

Marvin doesn't stop anybody.

Marvin may be a better defender than Bibby but that about it.

I don't necessarily agree with this (well I do about the Bibby part, but...).

I think Marv is fine as a man defender. I think he's average, which is more than enough for a player his age with such room for physical, let alone mental, development. Similarly I thought Al was, at best, an average defender at either of the frontcourt spots but seeing as most rooks are terrible defenders (see Durant, Kevin or Thornton, Al), around average means that he could develop into a stunning defender.

My point is that there is some strange mythology going around here that makes Marv out to be some sort of near-lockdown defender when no one outside this board has made mention of his D one way or another. He certainly isn't a mark but no one really changes their gameplan because they are worried about their man getting shut down by Marv.

Similarly there is some sort of mythology that Smith gets torched every time he's on the court. I believe Dol's most recent words in the love/hate thread were "very poor man defender". The fact of the matter is that's not true either. He certainly isn't KG, locking guys down from the perimeter in or JO bullying guys in the paint, but he isn't a mark either.

The numbers back up both of these assertions, and, when in doubt go with the numbers. I've yet to hear anyone mention any game cept' Gooden's jump shot fest in which Smith just got abused but we can all think of games where Zaza got torched, or Lue, or Bibby, or Chil. I can even think of a game where Joe got torched by Flip Murray. Similarly, I can't think of any time Marv got really abused on the perimeter unless his man's shot was going down but I also can't think of a time where Marv was locked in and draped all over his man.

I have no problem with people holding different opinions, I just think that unless something is consensus you need to have more proof than "X is better than Y" and when pressed "because he is".

Edited September 6, 2008 by crimedog