The creeping thought at the back of your mind...maybe

[Wretch]

I know. I know. (*as I stand here and take bullets, arrows, and grenades*). Yeah I know.

DUDE! WE ARE GOING TO THE PLAYOFFS! HELLO!?!?!?

I know...I understand.

Look at our record! We're one of the best in the league. OMG!

I know...I agree. I know... I know.

It's not time to start thinking about the lottery. OMG...EW!!!

I know. That's not the point of this. Just wondering if anyone misses those days. How the hope back then compares with the hope now.

I miss those days. Part of it. I miss draft night when we took Marvin and wondered if we had a LeBron or James Worthy...and didn't want to choke his *ss. When we hoped Chill could be like Pippen. When we followed the draft boards like crazy...watching every college game. When we had all that hope. Watching Smoove block 10 shots vs. Dallas. Watching Chill dunk on people. Watching Marvin get to the line, develop, a jumper...wondering if/when he'll start attempting 3's. Sitting on the edge of our seats right up until draft night. Wondering which of these guys are going to be the next Kobe or DWade...wondering if these guys could get us to the championship. If they would be All-NBA guys that would put the Hawks on the map....

Kinda miss all that arguing about Bogut, Paul, Chill, Deng...kinda sad looking at how BK screwed us. (Sura, Jack, and Stotts too for that matter).

What could have been... Yeah, I know...coulda...woulda...shoulda. HELLO! 2004 called, they want Ty Lue back!

I know.

I love that we're winning and I'm hoping we add that missing piece. I want to see us in at least the ECFs. But when the party is over, I won't be sad. And I can't wait to jump on the argument merry-go-rounds!

(If Stern doesn't contract the league and erase our team that is!!!!!)

[capstone21]

We have not been successful in the lottery in recent memeory with the exception of Horford who was a no brainer at 3.

Marvin

Sheldon

Acie Law

Childress

No, I would not be excited about us getting into the lottery again

[macdaddy]

Going back to the oldest number one still in the league. Excluding Wall and Griffin I count 4 or 5 guys who are franchise players/superstars out of 17. This is if you get the top pick. Our chances of winning the championship with the team we have right now is better than our chances of landing a franchise player in the draft.

2010John WallWashington WizardsKentucky2009Blake GriffinLos Angeles ClippersOklahoma2008Derrick RoseChicago BullsMemphis2007Greg OdenPortland Trail BlazersOhio State2006Andrea BargnaniToronto Raptorsfrom Italy2005Andrew BogutMilwaukee BucksUniversity of Utah2004Dwight HowardOrlando MagicH.S.: SW Atlanta Christian Academy (GA)2003LeBron JamesCleveland CavaliersH.S.: St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (OH)2002Yao MingHouston Rocketsfrom China2001Kwame BrownWashington WizardsH.S.: Glynn Academy2000Kenyon MartinNew Jersey NetsUniversity of Cincinnati1999Elton BrandChicago BullsDuke University1998Michael OlowokandiLos Angeles ClippersUniversity of the Pacific1997Tim DuncanSan Antonio SpursWake Forest University1996Allen IversonPhiladelphia 76ersGeorgetown University1995Joe SmithGolden State WarriorsUniversity of Maryland1994Glenn RobinsonMilwaukee BucksPurdue University1993Chris WebberOrlando MagicUniversity of Michigan1992Shaquille O'NealOrlando MagicLouisiana State University

Oops Sorry for the formatting

Edited January 28, 2011 by macdaddy

[niremetal]

We have not been successful in the lottery in recent memeory with the exception of Horford who was a no brainer at 3.

Marvin

Sheldon

Acie Law

Childress

No, I would not be excited about us getting into the lottery again

It's more than a small rewrite of history to say that Horford was a "no-brainer" at 3. Even on draft night, the people who thought the Hawks would/should take Horford was not based on the idea that he was the best player available. Not by a longshot. The pundits didn't give Horford much of a chance to develop until an All-Star. He was viewed as a "safe" pick, not a great one.

In any case, it wasn't a no-brainer. There was a complete consensus as to who would go #1 (Oden...and it's hilarious to watch the same pundits who talked about Oden being a once-in-a-generation talent now blasting Portland for taking him). And another consensus at who would go #2 (Durant). There wasn't anything remotely resembling a consensus at #3. The most common mock draft pick for the Hawks just 2 weeks before the draft was Brandan Wright (6 mocks had the Hawks taking him). The next most common was Mike Conley (4). Then came Horford (3) and Yi (2).

On Hawks fan blogs, there was even less consensus. The prospect of drafting Horford wasn't exactly a moment of unity in Hawks fandom. A plurality of people seemed to want Conley. Others wanted Yi (lots of people, actually), Wright, Noah, or Green. The Horford pick was blasted by many people (including the inestimable Diesel). Has everyone really forgotten all the "why did we draft another forward" and "what's the difference between him and Shelden" moaning?

By draft night, the prevailing prediction seemed to be that the Hawks WOULD take Horford, but definitely not that the Hawks SHOULD take him. On draft night itself, I distinctly remember the talking heads covering the draft saying they didn't like the pick immediately after Horford's name was announced.

Knight blew enough draft picks. At least give the man credit for the one he got right.

Edited January 28, 2011 by niremetal

[frosgrim]

Maybe if we had different owners I would feel differently, but right now I just don't see where this team is going except for a lot of 2nd round losses (or even first round losses). I really need to see something done about PG to get me excited about the potential of the team. Heck I would be energized by the addition of Melo (well depending on who we gve to get him). Bottom line for me, the Hawks just are not as enjoyable to watch this year as they have been over the last 3.

[AHF]

Going back to the oldest number one still in the league. Excluding Wall and Griffin I count 4 or 5 guys who are franchise players/superstars out of 17. This is if you get the top pick. Our chances of winning the championship with the team we have right now is better than our chances of landing a franchise player in the draft.

Oops Sorry for the formatting

My count is much more generous:

??? But it looks good - Wall & Griffin

Franchise Players

2008 Derrick Rose (looking good enough to be the lead guy on a finals team)

2004 Dwight Howard (Already in Finals)*

2003 LeBron James (Already in Finals)*

1997Tim Duncan (Multiple Championships)*

1996 Allen Iverson (Already in Finals)*

1993 Chris Webber (Near Finals)*

1992 Shaquille O'Neal (Multiple Championships)*

* = Likely Hall of Famer

Multiple All-Star But Not Enough to Lead a Team to the Finals

2002Yao Ming (May have been good enough but too injury prone)

1999 Elton Brand

1994 Glenn Robinson

Non-Franchise Players - Not Good Enough to Be #2 On a Championship Team

2007 Greg Oden

2006 Andrea Bargnani

2005 Andrew Bogut

2001Kwame Brown

2000 Kenyon Martin

1998 Michael Olowokand

1995 Joe Smith

[niremetal]

My count is much more generous:

??? But it looks good - Wall & Griffin

Franchise Players

2008 Derrick Rose (looking good enough to be the lead guy on a finals team)

2004 Dwight Howard (Already in Finals)*

2003 LeBron James (Already in Finals)*

1997Tim Duncan (Multiple Championships)*

1996 Allen Iverson (Already in Finals)*

1993 Chris Webber (Near Finals)*

1992 Shaquille O'Neal (Multiple Championships)*

* = Likely Hall of Famer

Multiple All-Star But Not Enough to Lead a Team to the Finals

2002Yao Ming (May have been good enough but too injury prone)

1999 Elton Brand

1994 Glenn Robinson

Non-Franchise Players - Not Good Enough to Be #2 On a Championship Team

2007 Greg Oden

2006 Andrea Bargnani

2005 Andrew Bogut

2001Kwame Brown

2000 Kenyon Martin

1998 Michael Olowokand

1995 Joe Smith

I think the jury is still out on Bogut. For Oden, I think it's highly unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility.

As for Yao...I know you weren't saying anything to the contrary, but it always bugs me when people say "oh, he was great except for his injuries" or "he could have been great if not for his injuries." The ability to stay healthy is a key part of being an athlete. I actually would argue that it is the most important part of being an athlete. It doesn't matter what natural talents a player has if he can't stay healthy. If the injury is caused by a freak accident totally disconnected from training and competition (as happened with Monica Seles and Roberto Clemente), that's one thing. But if your body's build (Yao), your style of play (Rafa Nadal in tennis), or even if it's the result of an avoidable in-competition injury (like Bo Jackson), I simply don't view it as a "mitigating factor." The ability to stay healthy - whether through physical gifts, training/condition, or playing style - or lack thereof is an inseparable part of being athlete. I don't see how it can be viewed separately any more than strength, quickness, or awareness can.

[macdaddy]

Its too early for me to say Derrick Rose is a franchise player. Remember when Baron Davis seemed like a franchise player?

Chris Webber I don't know. Was Webber more of a franchise player than say Joe Johnson?

Even with that you have to say the chances of landing CP3, Howard, Duncan, Shaq type players in the draft is extremely unlikely.

[AHF]

Its too early for me to say Derrick Rose is a franchise player. Remember when Baron Davis seemed like a franchise player?

In that case, you shouldn't count him in the denominator (i.e., he shouldn't be counted among the possible franchise guys).

Chris Webber I don't know. Was Webber more of a franchise player than say Joe Johnson?

Webber's Kings team should have been in the NBA finals but for one of the most illegitimate reffing scandals in pro sports. I don't count the Russians as beating the US in the Olympics so I have to credit Sacramento for having been the legit representative from the West who would have likely then beaten the snot out of the Nets but would have been in the finals in either case. I get where you are coming from and I can definitely understand an argument that he isn't a franchise guy...but since he should have been in the finals absent the shammockery then I'll credit him with having been the best guy on a finals team for this discussion.

Even with that you have to say the chances of landing CP3, Howard, Duncan, Shaq type players in the draft is extremely unlikely.

I would say that your odds of winning a championship without a truly elite player are very, very low and that the chances of not getting one through the draft are low. Look at the champions:

2010 - Lakers acquired Kobe through the draft (I know it was a trade of a draft pick but that counts)

2009 - Lakers acquired their best player Kobe through the draft

2008 - Celtics acquired Paul Pierce through draft (their best player for many years and the most important offensive piece to their title team)

2007 - Spurs acquired best player Duncan through the draft

2006 - Heat acquired best player Wade through the draft

2005 - Spurs acquired best player Duncan through the draft

2004 - Pistons didn't acquire best player though the draft

2003 - Spurs acquired best player through the draft

2002 - 2000 Lakers acquired best player through FA and 2nd cog, Kobe, through the draft

1999 - Spurs acquired best player through the draft

1998 - 1996 Bulls acquired best player (Jordan) through the draft

1994-95 Rockets acquired best player (Hakeem) through the draft

1991-93 Bulls acquired best player through the draft

1989-90 Pistons acquired best player (Isiah) through the draft

1987-88 Lakers acquired best player (Magic) through the draft

1986 Celtics acquired best player (Bird) through the draft

1985 Lakers acquired best player through the draft

1984 Celtics acquired best player through the draft

1983 Sixers acquired best player (Malone) through the draft

1982 Lakers acquired best player through the draft

1981 Celtics acquired best player through the draft

1980 Lakers didn't acquire best player (then Kareem) through the draft

25 of the last 31 champions acquired their best player through the draft

6 of them didn't and those that didn't included the Lakers with Magic Johnson through the draft, the Lakers with Kobe through the draft, and the Celtics with Paul Pierce through the draft

Historically, I think the odds are really against a team winning a championship without their own drafted superstar.

Edited January 28, 2011 by AHF

[gsuteke]

You are nuts - I mean you are seriously out of your mind!

[Wretch]

Its too early for me to say Derrick Rose is a franchise player. Remember when Baron Davis seemed like a franchise player?

Chris Webber I don't know. Was Webber more of a franchise player than say Joe Johnson?

Even with that you have to say the chances of landing CP3, Howard, Duncan, Shaq type players in the draft is extremely unlikely.

Let me say first that I am in no way advocating that we blow up the core and start trying to draft players. We have a much better chance now of getting further than we do of starting over and trying to draft a franchise player. And that would take MUCH longer. BUT, if keep hovering around the 4th or 5th seed for the next 3 or 4 years without an ECF? I don't want to take the Babcock route of rebuilding through trades. It'll be the 90's all over. We'll miss out on the talent in the draft while we continue to miss out of the ECF's. I don't want to go back to limbo. I'd welcome the draft over that.

As far as our chances of drafting a Howard or Shaq... The first thing people need to understand is that Magic, Shaq, Durant, LeBron...these guys are the rare. But only in that you know they're going to be that good right off the bat. They are sure things and consenus picks. That does not discount the fact that there is a direct connection to the best players in the league and the very top of the NBA draft. How many teams have made it to the playoffs without at least ONE lottery pick? How many teams have made the ECF/WCF without one? How many teams have been to the championship game without one? How many championship teams are without a single player taken in the lottery? How many of ANY of those teams would be the same if you took away the most productive of those players?

I'm sure that the total number of those teams combined is close to zero.

Now, there is a lot of wheeling and dealing going on and I don't know the stats on a player that was drafted by a team and took a team to the finals...hmmm....but let me try to do this off the top of my head...Magic, MJ, Pippen, Stockton, Malone, Ewing, Kobe, Wade, Dirk, Duncan, Robinson, Zeke, Dumars, Drexler, Iverson, Pierce, LeBron, Bird, Reggie Miller, Hakeem....stopping there... There were obviously some trades made and whatnot and I'm sure there was a team that made it without a cornerstone player they drafted. But...the bottom line is that the draft lottery is not a crapshoot and it's not worthless. In fact, it's quite the opposite. The lottery as a whole is where the top talent in the NBA comes from. It produces champions.

If and when we do get back, it's not guaranteed we'll draft a superstar. But it certainly doesn't help to be stupid and just draft like we got no sense.

(LOL...well that's nostolgic! It feels like 2003 all over again!)

[Wretch]

BTW...on the poll...(lol, that doesn't sound right)...but anywho. We're really more excited about this team getting over the top? Than we were about drafting the next superstar? I guess... Maybe my opinion is just jaded from this season. Because that first year we made the playoffs was NUTS!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol

Eh...guess I'm just a NBA Draft fan. I think I enjoy watching the draft more than the finals (definitely some years).

[macdaddy]

BTW...on the poll...(lol, that doesn't sound right)...but anywho. We're really more excited about this team getting over the top? Than we were about drafting the next superstar? I guess... Maybe my opinion is just jaded from this season. Because that first year we made the playoffs was NUTS!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol

Eh...guess I'm just a NBA Draft fan. I think I enjoy watching the draft more than the finals (definitely some years).

I think that's where we are as a certain type of hardcore fan. The games last 2.5 hours. The playoffs last just weeks. The hypothetical wheelings and dealings last forever.