The Hindsight Machine....5-30

[Diesel]

Ok, the Hindsight machine is that thing that most of us use in every post but we don't admit it. So in today's version of the Hindsight machine....Would you have taken Chris Paul over Marvin if you knew that you would never get Al Horford?

[matt52500]

I love Horford, but that is a no brainer. I will take the guy that could be in be (and this year was) in the MVP race in any given year. You just don't pass on those guys.

[Supporter]

I would rather have Teague+Horford over CP3, Horford is a big and Teague really isn't that bad

[capstone21]

Yet another Chris Paul thread...let it go!!!

[Sothron]

Forget Paul, we needed the better player in Deron Williams. Deron is better on both ends of the court than Paul. He is the one I was literally begging that idiot Knight to draft.But either way I'd rather have Paul as well.

[coachx]

Lets be specific following the paths of what was and what could have been as we step into The Hindsite Machine:

Marvin, Sheldon, Horford

Sheldon lead to 3 seaons of Bibby.....who lead to 1.5 seasons of Hinrich......and that path let us draft Teague. However, we should keep Teague seperate in that he was drafted after 2008 unless we want to bring up who we could have drafted with Paul on the team after 2008.

Paul and 2 late 1st rounders in 2006 and 2008. (The 2007 pick would have gone to The Suns.)

The 2006 mid-late 1st round draft class was pretty weak . Nothing but PGs but if we had Paul thats a mute point.

Here is what we had to choose from according to draft order:

15. Cedric Simmons

16. Rodney Carney

17. Sean Williams

18. O. Percherov

19.Quincey Douby

20. Ronaldo Blackman

21. Rajon Rondo

22. Marcus Williams

23. Josh Boone

24. Kyle Lowry

25. Shannon Brown

26. Jordan Famar

27. Sergio Garcia

28. Maurice Ager

29. Mardy Collins

30. Joel Freeland

2007 was top 3 protected. With Chris Paul we would not have won the 3rd pick. So this pick goes to Phoniex to complete the JJ trade.

2008 is year 3 for Paul, JJ, and Smith to play together. I would expect a playoff appearance and us picking between 20 - 25. (In reality this is the same year we lost to the Celtics in Round #1, with Horford as a rookie, and had the 15th pick that went to Phoneix to complete the JJ trade.)

Lets see who would have been on the board in 2008 according to draft order:

15. Robin Lopez (Our real pick that went to Phoneix. I think we would be picking after pick 20 with Paul. Maybe we luck out and take the international Ibaka but I don't have much faith in that.)

16. Maurice Speights

17. Roy Hibbert

18. JaVale McGee

19. JJ Hickson

20. Alex Ajinca

21. Ryan Anderson

22. Courtney Lee

23. Kousta Kofos

24. Serge Ibaka

25. Nicolas Batum

26. George Hill

27. Darrell Auther

28. Donte Green

29. DJ White

30. JR Giddens

I picked Paul and slim pickings in the late part of the 2006 and 2008 draft but it was a closer call after I analyzed the draft board in 2006 and 2008.

The 2006 pick may have been 15-20 but that was just an awful mid- late 1st round draft class for anything but the PG position. Other then Ibaka at #24, the 2008 draft was not much different.

Edit

Going back to the hindsite machine has made me realize.....this is more complicated then initially thought. It is possible for Chris Paul to lead Atlanta to the playoffs in 2006 as a rookie......meaning Phoniex gets our 2006 1st round pick and we keep our 1st in 2007 and 2008........but I don't want to play Hindsite Machine anymore b/c I don't want to go look up the 2007 class.

Edited May 30, 2012 by coachx

[AHF]

The 2006 pick may have been 15-20 but that was just an awful mid- late 1st round draft class for anything but the PG position. Other then Ibaka at #24, the 2008 draft was not much different.

I agree on 2006 but 2008 had a lot of guys who are contributors:

2006 was weak. Nothing but PGs but if we had Paul thats a mute point.

Here is what we had to choose from according to draft order:

15. Cedric Simmons

16. Rodney Carney

17. Sean Williams

18. O. Percherov

19.Quincey Douby

20. Ronaldo Blackman

21. Rajon Rondo

22. Marcus Williams

23. Josh Boone

24. Kyle Lowry

25. Shannon Brown

26. Jordan Famar

27. Sergio Garcia

28. Maurice Ager

29. Mardy Collins

30. Joel Freeland

2007 was top 3 protected. With Chris Paul we would not have won the 3rd pick. So this pick goes to Phoniex.

2008 is year 3 for Paul, JJ, and Smith to play together. I would expect a playoff appearance and us picking between 20 - 25. (In reality this is the same year we lost to the Celtics in Round #1, with Horford as a rookie, and had the 15th pick that went to Phoniex to complete the JJ trade.)

Lets see who would have been on the board in 2008 according to draft order:

15. Robin Lopez (Our real pick that went to Phoneix. I think we would be picking after pick 20 with Paul. Maybe we luck out and take the international Ibaka but I don't have much faith in that.)

16. Maurice Speights

17. Roy Hibbert

18. JaVale McGee

19. JJ Hickson

20. Alex Ajinca

21. Ryan Anderson

22. Courtney Lee

23. Kousta Kofos

24. Serge Ibaka

25. Nicolas Batum

26. George Hill

27. Darrell Auther

28. Donte Green

29. DJ White

30. JR Giddens

For me BOLD = Useful player to build the team cheaply; UNDERLINE = No-brainer starter quality or better. I left off guys who are useful bottom of the rotation players who probably only play for you if you lack alternatives (like Shannon Brown) and tried to limit it to guys that I thought a team like San Antonio would happily add to their rotation.

[ag82]

In hindsight, I'd take Paul for sure, but I still don't think that makes us even an EC champion.

[Nicholasp27]

We wouldn't have gotten Lowry or rondo with Paul and wouldn't have picked high enough for hibbert but ibaka or Batum may be possibleAlso, if you wanna play hindsight then without Paul we can select a better #11 than acie law....

[Guest]

Woody would have benched Paul so we would be in the same boat because he would have become a free agent and signed elsewhere.

Edited May 31, 2012 by JayBirdHawk

[Diesel]

Good post D, although i would love to hear the dieselputer's answer. I do think this is a tough question especially considering Paul has only been out of the first round once. Admittedly in a tougher conference. I think Paul might be overrated right now, plus he is a nut puncher so I've really never liked him.

Dieselputer says...Our frontoffice didn't have the mental ability to spot talent in the late picks of the first round so Shelden or whoever we would have pick would have been a wash.I can easily see us trading this pick. 2006 was the year we traded Harrington. We could have sent him to a team that could have given us the C we needed. Maybe Nene or Chandler or something like that.The problem is this.With a CP3, JJ, Childress, Smoove, and Zaza starting 5, I think that FAs would have wanted to be here.

[Nicholasp27]

If we draft cp3/deron then I'm not so sure we trade for jj...a big part of the justification was that he could play pg

[AHF]

Also, if you wanna play hindsight then without Paul we can select a better #11 than acie law....

This is true. We probably would have gotten the guy who went right after AC - Thaddeus Young. A 6'8'' Georgia Tech guy that can play the 3 or the 4 would have been a no brainer for us. He would have been an upgrade over Marvin as well (comparing today's roster against that hypothetical one).