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lethalweapon3

By lethalweapon3
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lethalweapon3 Grand Master

lethalweapon3

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Atlanta’s early West Coast road trip swoops the Hawks into the Rose Garden for tonight’s tilt with rookie sensation Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers. It’s weird to report that almost everyone on Portland’s roster is healthy right now, as it appears that Minnesota has caught Portland’s legendary bug. Only Elliott Williams is out for the season with a torn Achilles.

Lillard (18.8 PPG, 7.0 APG, leading all rookies) has shown no problem with finding his buckets, aside from a blip in a game last week in Dallas. But in his last three games (16.3 PPG, 5.0 APG), matched up against Darren Collison, Chris Paul, and Patty Mills, he’s had a little trouble getting his teammates involved. Instead, it has been LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum getting teammates (including Lillard himself) the ball in positions to score lately. If Jeff Teague gives him any trouble, look for Lillard to give the ball up to his forwards and let them handle the passing duties while he fights to get open. 41% of his scores are assisted, compared to just 11% for Teague.

Batum is taking the expectations that accompanied his new contract seriously thus far. He’s finishing shots better at the rim (77% at the rim, 65% last year) and taking a higher volume of three-pointers (2.7 threes made per game, 100% assisted so far). He also become a theft maven, averaging 2.8 steals so far after never surpassing more than one per game in his previous four seasons.

Portland’s opponents have been blazing a trail right to the rim. 37.8% of all opponent FGs are at the rim, second only to Detroit, while Portland and Utah are the only NBA teams where opponents are taking more than half their shots within 10 feet. Between 3-9 feet, Blazer foes are hitting those shots at a league-high 49 percent. Combined with being among the top five in opponent FG% for mid-range and long-range two-pointers, Portland has the league’s highest overall opponent FG% (50.7%). The Hawks must take care of the ball and find finishers inside, or drive inside to make a play. Al Horford, in particular, ought to have a field day in the paint. There’s no need to settle for lots of threes against this team.

But, quick: who is currently the Hawks’ most successful three-point shooter in terms of FG%? If you guessed Teague (55.6%, ranked 9th in the NBA), you get a cookie! His accuracy is climbing from the 41% he connected on in the playoffs last year. He’ll need to distribute, of course, but when Atlanta goes into dual small-guard sets, Devin Harris and/or Lou Williams would do well to get the ball back to Teague late in the clock. Surely, Teague should be taking this shot more than Williams, Harris, You-Know-Who, and Tolliver, each of whom are below 30% from this range.

The Hawks still have a high proportion of 3-pointers among their opponents’ shots (28.5% of all FG attempts, virtually tied with Charlotte), yet Hawk opponents are still subpar in terms of converting on them (32.2%). This is despite having endured top-30 NBA shooters Kevin Martin, Thabo Sefolosha, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, LeBron James, Lance Stephenson, and Caron Butler already. Look for Batum (38.0 3FG%), Lillard (36.1 3FG%), and Matthews (45.5 3FG%) to take the bait early and often.

Securing the defensive rebounds on missed threes and getting out on the break will be key to any chance at a road victory. Only New York (for some reason) is ceding more defensive boards to opponents in games than Portland. The Hawks’ pace remains in the bottom-ten in the league, so for a team that at least pretends to like running, they need to produce more outlets from their defensive rebounds.

Both the Hawks and Blazers seem to go it alone when they’re making shots in the post, but apparently for different reasons. On short-range shots (3-to-9 feet), both teams are tied for last in baskets assisted (14.3% of field goals made). Portland is rarely going for these shots. Reigning All-Star LaMarcus Nurae Aldridge’s singular shot-taken-per-game at this range is way down from prior seasons, as he’s passing this up for way more long jumpers (more on this in a sec). As for the Hawks, with his soon-to-be-patented “Teaguedrops,” Jeff led the NBA in shots made from this range (1.6 per game; only two other NBA guards are hitting more than one per game) before not making any during the Clipper game, while Josh Smith is, unbelievably, in the top 5 (1.8 per game). Al Horford is hitting on short-range shots at a 60% rate, so it will be good to allow him to post up from time to time.

Aldridge is becoming what Josh Smith dreams of becoming with his copious long-range (16-to-23 feet) jumpers. With Aldridge settling for shots and passes from the elbow and near the perimeter (a whopping, NBA-leading 11.5 long-range two-point shots per game, up from 6.2 and 4.7 in his last two seasons… for comparison, Kevin Garnett is currently second with 5.3 shots), his scoring has regressed slightly because he is getting to the line nearly half as often (3.0 FTAs per game, compared to 5.0 and 5.5 in his last two seasons). His 43% shooting at this range is fine for a power forward, but nothing to write home about. When LMA is M.I.A. in the post, Portland is heavily dependent on still-green J.J. Hickson and rookies Meyers Leonard and Joel Freeland to make things happen down low. Aldridge and Ex-Hawks Head Coach Terry Stotts insist there’s no problem, but he’s got to diversify his shot choices if Portland is going have any long-term success.

Offensively, the Blazers’ depth puts the “Poor” in Portland. No one outside of the starting five is getting more than three shots a game, and none are scoring more than four points per game. Coach Stotts has a young and energetic roster, but any guys like Matthews, Aldridge, or Batum getting into foul trouble would mean heroic efforts from guys like Ronnie Price and still-in-the league-somehow Sasha Pavlovic will be needed.

Atlanta’s not quite in last place yet for free throw shooting (ahead of Cleveland and Denver at just 66.7 FT%; just 7-for-16 last night). Smith’s Voyage to the Bottom of the Free Throw Sea has him down to 14.3% on the year, but if they’re going to get out of their funk soon they may want to rely more on Teague (hasn’t missed yet) and Lou Williams (88.9%) to drive inside and get to the line.

Go Hawks!

~lw3

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hawkrule152 Newbie

hawkrule152

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Chris Vivlamore ‏@ajchawks

Likely Hawks lineup vs, Blazers. Teague, Korver, Stevenson, Smith/Tolliver, Horford. #ATLHawks

Just saw the AJCHawks tweet. All I can say is, Is Smith doesnt start, he is not going to show any effort at all on the court IMO. He is the type of player to mope about this and not give full effort. With that being said, I hope he does not start. He is a cancer to the team and we have much better chemistry without him.

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PSSSHHHRRR87 Enthusiast

PSSSHHHRRR87

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Seriously. We get mad because we have no rebounding and Smoove spends too much time on the perimeter, so if he isn't starting why would you replace him with somebody who can't rebound and spends all their time on the perimeter?

Fact is Tolliver is our backup F and I don't see a problem with Tolliver starting in the place of Smith, although I'd rather see him at SF and Pachulia at C, Horf at PF with Ivan off of the bench, especially with Aldridge at PF. Smith'll start tonight because of Aldridge... Edited by PSSSHHHRRR87
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AHF Grand Master

AHF

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Seriously. We get mad because we have no rebounding and Smoove spends too much time on the perimeter, so if he isn't starting why would you replace him with somebody who can't rebound and spends all their time on the perimeter?

Ivan .663 ts% / 17% total rebound %

Tolliver .399 ts% / 9% total rebound %

Ivan 98 ORTG >> Tolliver 82 ORTG

Ivan 102 DRTG (best on the team) > Tolliver 105 DRTG

Free Ivan!

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TheTruth Experienced

TheTruth

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Ivan .663 ts% / 17% total rebound %

Tolliver .399 ts% / 9% total rebound %

Ivan 98 ORTG >> Tolliver 82 ORTG

Ivan 102 DRTG (best on the team) > Tolliver 105 DRTG

Free Ivan!

IVAN should definitely be starting if the two choices are him and Tolliver.

This team needs rebounding to play the style of offensive ball they want. Tolliver won't give you that. LD can still play his precious boy toy Tolliver 15-20 mins because IVAN isn't a 30-35 min. player.

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TheTruth Experienced

TheTruth

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Wonder why Morrow didn't play against the Clippers? I was too. Let's hear what our esteemed head coach ha to say about Morrow after the Clipper game. Excerpts taken from the official Hawks blog:

Anthony Morrow also did not play Sunday, one game after he scored 17 points off the bench against the Heat. Drew said he had a determined rotation for the Clippers game and Morrow was not in the plan. Once the game got out of hand in the fourth quarter, he didn’t want to use Morrow in such a situation.

“I’m going to play him when I feel it’s a game that I really want to use him in,” Drew said. “Going into last night’s game, I already had my mind made up on the rotation that I did want to use. I didn’t want to throw him in there when the game is out of reach. I don’t want to do that.

“There are going to be some games when I’m going to be using him, particularly in needing his offense. We started with the big lineup last night. We got good mileage out of bringing Lou (Williams) and Devin (Harris) off the bench and trying to keep a big three position-wise out on the floor.

“I couldn’t find minutes for him in last night’s game. I am aware of the productivity he has brought when he’s been in there. He’ll be playing more.”

I about threw up after reading that. The dude scored 17 points in 15 minutes and you mean to tell me you couldn't find even ONE minute for the guy...yet you throw out unproven guys who hadn't logged minutes all year in Jenkins (another guard) and Scott?

What a joke. Where is the reward for playing well? I know the dude plays nonexistent defense and that he won't play 10-20 MPG...or even play every game, but to say "he wasn't in our plans" due to a "set rotation" you concocted before the game? It's expected to have a gameplan set before the game, but to totally not use a player when the game of basketball, heck any game, is fluid and can throw wrenches into preparation made beforehand is not only stupid, but it is bordering on insane.

Thoughts?

EDIT: Link: http://blogs.ajc.com/hawks/2012/11/12/atlanta-hawks-game-thread-smith-williams-ill-and-may-not-play-vs-blazers/

Edited by TheTruth
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MrMeltdown Newbie

MrMeltdown

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I could swear Teague has more than 5 assists. Good game so far. Funny how you always look up and Josh has taken the most shots. LMAO, at someone suggesting Lillard may school Teague. Lillard looks like less of a PG than Teague probably ever has but he will be just fine because he will get all the time he needs.

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