Hawks - Magic

[lethalweapon3]

(Reminder for the local Squawkers not heading to Philips: the game won’t air on local TV due to the NBA-TV blackout. Enjoy the wondrous golden voice of Steve Holman on 680 AM tonight!)

It’s “Year 1, A.D.” for the Orlando Magic, tonight’s opponent at the Highlight Factory. The Magic is in CTRL+ALT+DEL mode “After Dwight,” shipping off the face of their franchise, getting a lot of moving parts in return, and jettisoning their raspy, candid head coach.

What is the effect of moving on from Dwight Howard and Stan Van Gundy? The biggest difference in Orlando’s team play shows up at the three-point line. The team that was #1 in three-pointers made in each of the previous five NBA seasons currently ranks 28^th. They turned Ryan Anderson into Goose Ayón, dealt Jason Richardson and Chris Duhon as part of the Dwight deal, and cut Quentin Richardson loose. Not having an established interior threat like Howard or even Marcin Gortat to draw extra defenders toward the rim reduces the likelihood of wide-open triples for J.J. Redick, Jameer Nelson, and Arron Afflalo.

They’re not getting trips to the line either (29^th in free throws made and attempted per game), getting the fewest personal foul calls in the league. So a bunch of their shots are now coming from well inside the perimeter, specifically about one-fourth of their shots combined at short-range (4^th in NBA in percentage of shots taken from 3-to-9 feet) and mid-range (1^st in NBA for percentage of shots from 10-to-15 feet).

Glen Davis taking the lion’s share of Orlando’s shots changes the complexion of their offense significantly. By comparison, Big Baby was the 7^th-leading offensive option on the Magic last season. Frequently shelved by Van Gundy during crunch time of the 2012 playoff games, Davis has a newfound confidence in former Hawk Jacque Vaughn’s new scheme, ranking 4^th in NBA preseason scoring (16.9 PPG). Whether Vaughn will maintain a confidence in Davis as the season wears on remains to be seen.

My preseason pick for Most Improved Player, Nikola Vucevic has doubled his playing time from last season in Philadelphia. The seven-foot Montenegrin has five double-doubles through nine games, and isn’t afraid to step out for a jumper as well (54.5 FG% at mid-range). He’s a better option at this distance than Davis, who is second in the NBA in mid-range jumpers taken but connects on just 29% of them. Starting until recently at point guard in the absence of Nelson, E’Twaun Moore leads NBA guards in FG% at short-range (69%).

Arguably the top in-the-flesh prize in the return haul for D12, Afflalo has been solid but unspectacular so far. He’s broken the 20-point threshold just twice in his nine starts for the Magic, not including any of his last six games, while shooting 43.5% from the field. If his shot is not falling, he’ll have to find other ways to lead. He’ll particularly have to get his consistency back as a top-tier defensive player, a reputation that eroded in Denver as his minutes expanded.

The Magic have been consistently shorthanded. Al Harrington remains out, rehabbing after four summertime procedures on his knee, including three surgeries to deal with a staph infection. Stone Mountain native DeQuan Jones, “How Can You Be” Mo Harkless, and Ayón have each missed time from injuries already. And Redick missed last night’s game in Toronto due to that pervasive stomach illness. Redick’s appearance will be a gametime decision tonight. Look for either Jones or Moore to start for Orlando at shooting guard if Redick is a late scratch.

As many Raptors fans have already done, doctors recently determined Hedo Turkoglu has a screw loose. Fortunately for him, it’s just the one in his left hand. Docs X-raying the hand Hedo broke during the season opener discovered the flaw and set back his return from surgery by about a month.

Also injured after the opener, Nelson is back but playing through a strained groin and hamstring. Meerkat has struggled to find the bottom of the net in his three games (15% from three-point range despite taking the most three-point shots per game), but has effectively distributed the ball (26 assists, 7 turnovers). He emerged as the vocal leader in timeout huddles on Friday, as the Magic took a third-quarter 10 point deficit against Detroit and turned it into a 24-point swing for their only win in their last seven games.

The lack of steady roster options for Coach Vaughn is leading to some uncommon leadership in certain stats. Redick has taken Dwight’s place as the team’s leading free throw shooter (3.6 FTAs per game; Howard took 10.6 in 2011-12). The leading shot blocker now that Dwight (2.1 per game in 2011-12) has moved on? So far, it’s Harkless (1.3 blocks in just 15.6 minutes per game). Their leading three-point maker? Would you guess Moore (1.8 threes per game)?

Last by far in the NBA for steals (only team with less than six per game), Orlando defenders are clearly not gambling, trying to get opponents instead to take tough shots over them. It may work out better for the Hawks to go for three the old-fashioned way. The Magic’s opponents are hitting just 32% from three-point range (4^th lowest), but 44% from 16-to-23 feet (2^nd highest).

It’s important for the Hawks to get off on the good foot (talon?) over the next couple weeks and move up in the East. Seven of the next eight games are at home, with the one road trip to Charlotte on Friday and just one team above .500 (the Clippers) on Saturday. A strong start against the Magic, who is on the second night of a back-to-back, will kick this stretch off properly.

Go Hawks!

~lw3

[buckeye242424]

Great post. I know it's early in the season, 4-4. But I think this home stand is going to play a pivotal role of where we're going as a team. Look at the teams were playing... We need to win most of these games. The Clips post the biggest challenge to me, but even so, it's winnable. We need to get off on the right foot and beat Orlando. They're depleted, no Dwight, we've won seven regular season games in a row vs. the Magic. I'd be very disappointed if this isn't a W.

[lethalweapon3]

Mini-Stat-du-Jour: Shawt-Range Shawty?

Most Field Goal Attempts (FGA) per Game from 3-to-9 Feet, thru 11/18/2012

(source: basketball-reference.com)

1. JOSH SMITH: 39 FGA/7 Games = 5.57 FGA/gm (41.0 FG%)

2. Dwight Howard: 51 FGA/10 Games = 5.10 FGA/gm (49.0 FG%)

3. DeMarcus Cousins: 40 FGA/8 Games = 5.00 FGA/gm (42.5 FG%)

4. David West: 53 FGA/11 Games = 4.82 FGA/gm (43.4 FG%)

5. Brook Lopez: 37 FGA/8 Games = 4.63 FGA/gm (43.2 FG%)

6. Nikola Pekovic: 32 FGA/7 Games = 4.57 FGA/gm (46.9 FG%)

7. Blake Griffin: 41 FGA/9 Games = 4.56 FGA/gm (48.8 FG%)

8. Roy Hibbert: 48 FGA/11 Games = 4.36 FGA/gm (27.1 FG%)

9. Tony Parker: 39 FGA/9 Games = 4.33 FGA/gm (41.0 FG%)

10. David Lee: 43 FGA/10 Games = 4.30 FGA/gm (25.6 FG%)

11. Al Jefferson: 47 FGA/11 Games = 4.27 FGA/gm (48.9 FG%)

12. Dwyane Wade: 31 FGA/8 Games = 3.88 FGA/gm (35.5 FG%)

13. Kobe Bryant: 38 FGA/10 Games = 3.80 FGA/gm (52.6 FG%)

14. Glen Davis: 33 FGA/9 Games = 3.66 FGA/gm (42.4 FG%)

15. Kevin Durant: 40 FGA/11 Games = 3.64 FGA/gm (45.0 FG%)

16. Pau Gasol: 36 FGA/10 Games = 3.60 FGA/gm (27.8 FG%)

17. JEFF TEAGUE: 26 FGA/8 Games = 3.25 FGA/gm (50.0 FG%)

18. Greg Monroe: 35 FGA/11 Games = 3.18 FGA/gm (37.1 FG%)

19. Nikola Vucevic: 28 FGA/9 Games = 3.11 FGA/gm (39.3 FG%)

20. Kevin Seraphin: 21 FGA/7 Games = 3.00 FGA/gm (42.9 FG%)

Keep it up, Shawty!

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Devin starts tonight. Teague-Harris-Korver-Smith-Horfordoh, and Jameer's sick now, probably won't play.~lw3

Edited November 19, 2012 by lethalweapon3

[PureGreatness]

Mini-Stat-du-Jour: Shawt-Range Shawty?

Most Field Goal Attempts (FGA) per Game from 3-to-9 Feet, thru 11/18/2012

(source: basketball-reference.com)

1. JOSH SMITH: 39 FGA/7 Games = 5.57 FGA/gm (41.0 FG%)

2. Dwight Howard: 51 FGA/10 Games = 5.10 FGA/gm (49.0 FG%)

3. DeMarcus Cousins: 40 FGA/8 Games = 5.00 FGA/gm (42.5 FG%)

4. David West: 53 FGA/11 Games = 4.82 FGA/gm (43.4 FG%)

5. Brook Lopez: 37 FGA/8 Games = 4.63 FGA/gm (43.2 FG%)

6. Nikola Pekovic: 32 FGA/7 Games = 4.57 FGA/gm (46.9 FG%)

7. Blake Griffin: 41 FGA/9 Games = 4.56 FGA/gm (48.8 FG%)

8. Roy Hibbert: 48 FGA/11 Games = 4.36 FGA/gm (27.1 FG%)

9. Tony Parker: 39 FGA/9 Games = 4.33 FGA/gm (41.0 FG%)

10. David Lee: 43 FGA/10 Games = 4.30 FGA/gm (25.6 FG%)

11. Al Jefferson: 47 FGA/11 Games = 4.27 FGA/gm (48.9 FG%)

12. Dwyane Wade: 31 FGA/8 Games = 3.88 FGA/gm (35.5 FG%)

13. Kobe Bryant: 38 FGA/10 Games = 3.80 FGA/gm (52.6 FG%)

14. Glen Davis: 33 FGA/9 Games = 3.66 FGA/gm (42.4 FG%)

15. Kevin Durant: 40 FGA/11 Games = 3.64 FGA/gm (45.0 FG%)

16. Pau Gasol: 36 FGA/10 Games = 3.60 FGA/gm (27.8 FG%)

17. JEFF TEAGUE: 26 FGA/8 Games = 3.25 FGA/gm (50.0 FG%)

18. Greg Monroe: 35 FGA/11 Games = 3.18 FGA/gm (37.1 FG%)

19. Nikola Vucevic: 28 FGA/9 Games = 3.11 FGA/gm (39.3 FG%)

20. Kevin Seraphin: 21 FGA/7 Games = 3.00 FGA/gm (42.9 FG%)

Keep it up, Shawty!

~lw3

I know I was right when I said Josh seems to be taking more shots in the paint so far.

I hope me and LethaWeapon3 don't jinx Josh Smith tonight. Watch him shot all but 5 of his shots from the perimiter.

[Supporter]

Josh just has no offensive game, and we don't have the offensive options to get the best out of him. Horford and Teague are more efficient on the offensive end, and Drew seems to like spot up shooters like Korver. I think the best for both Josh and the team is to trade him. He doesn't really flow with the team, and if we can get back a defensive center for Josh, I am all for it.

[GameTime]

What happened to the 15 second shot clock run and gun Drew? We are slower than we were last year.

[MrMeltdown]

Josh just has no offensive game, and we don't have the offensive options to get the best out of him. Horford and Teague are more efficient on the offensive end, and Drew seems to like spot up shooters like Korver. I think the best for both Josh and the team is to trade him. He doesn't really flow with the team, and if we can get back a defensive center for Josh, I am all for it.

Damn this post is scary. I was about to post the same exact thing. Josh needs to play with a All NBA caliber PG or something. The guy has absolutely no offensive skill and needs someone to spoon feed him in order to be effective and efficient.

[GameTime]

Damn this post is scary. I was about to post the same exact thing. Josh needs to play with a All NBA caliber PG or something. The guy has absolutely no offensive skill and needs someone to spoon feed him in order to be effective and efficient.

Why not give him that PG instead of trading him? A defensive center does not make us a contender. Ferry knows this.

[Jody23]

Josh just has no offensive game, and we don't have the offensive options to get the best out of him. Horford and Teague are more efficient on the offensive end, and Drew seems to like spot up shooters like Korver. I think the best for both Josh and the team is to trade him. He doesn't really flow with the team, and if we can get back a defensive center for Josh, I am all for it.

Didn't see the game, but listened online. Some folks on another blog were saying Smith was playing the 3 and that was the reason for his struggles. If I saw the lineups correctly, he didn't play the 3 at all tonight. He was just flat out awful. Am I missing something?

[GameTime]

Didn't see the game, but listened online. Some folks on another blog were saying Smith was playing the 3 and that was the reason for his struggles. If I saw the lineups correctly, he didn't play the 3 at all tonight. He was just flat out awful. Am I missing something?

I am glad we are giving him this season so he can see he is not a #1 option and needs help. I'm not giving up on D12 and CP3 yet. He would be a perfect #3 option and utility player for them. Edited November 20, 2012 by GameTime

[Jody23]

I am glad we are giving him this season so he can see he is not a #1 option and needs help. I'm not giving up on D12 and CP3 yet. He would be a perfect #3 option and utility player for them.

He should actually be the fourth option at best. He's an energy player who should focus on finishing on the break or around the basket and getting rebounds.

[cam1218]

Didn't see the game. Looking at the boxscore, Josh missed most of his shots and all of his free throws.Jump shots? Posting up and just missing? Either way, how bad can out "best" player keep playing?

[MrMeltdown]

Why not give him that PG instead of trading him? A defensive center does not make us a contender. Ferry knows this.

You do know that there are only 3 All NBA PG's in the league don't you? Unless we are getting Nash, Paul, or Rondo who are the only All NBA caliber past first PG's out there then it is not happening and I don't see Rondo or Nash coming here and the Clippers are looking like they could end up going deep in the playoffs and they have a lot of fans right now. I can't see him giving that up to come somewhere like this. It is more likely that we could trade Josh than get a PG that can really make him better and Josh is not worth all of that IMO. Edited November 20, 2012 by MrMeltdown

[WakaFlocka]

I just want to say that I loved when Teague blocked Redick's jumper, saved it from going out of bounds, then came back down the floor, passed on the open 3, and threw the lob to Al.Hey, let's trade him though since so many other PGs in the NBA make plays like that!

[TheFuzz]

I've been really judgmental of Smoove in the past, but I gotta say I felt for the guy tonight. He stayed in the paint mostly and just couldn't hit anything. He got really pissed at himself when he bricked those free throws. Hopefully he learns from this, accepts what kind of player he is (not a #1 option and not a shooter), and gets out of this funk, and if he doesn't a change in scenery would probably do him some good.

[thecampster]

Steve Holman right after the two misses said on the radio broadcast, "I watched him in practice folks. He hits his free throws in practice." What does this tell me? It's mental and mental is much harder to fix than physical.

[Supporter]

It wasn't like Josh was just chucking either. He tried really hard to take good shots, but he has no feel around the rim. Unless he is dunking or laying it up, he is going to be really inefficient. Horford on the other hand knows how to get in position for easy buckets. If Josh learns how to play off ball it will be good for him and the team.

[Watchman]

Steve Holman right after the two misses said on the radio broadcast, "I watched him in practice folks. He hits his free throws in practice." What does this tell me? It's mental and mental is much harder to fix than physical.

They say that Wilt was the same way. He could make 85 - 90% of his free throws in practice but in the games he shot around 50% for his career. (Not implying that Smith is comparable to Wilt.)

[Peoriabird]

I can't figure out for the life of me why it is important to posters and Larry Drew that Josh Smith is one of the teams leading scorer! The guy can't shoot so why try and make him into one? He is Dennis Rodman reincarnated and the Bulls could care less whether Rodman took more than 3 shots. If Smith focused on what is good at i.e. rebounding, defense and blocking shots, he would be an all star and the Hawks would be in the hunt. But y'all want him to score for some inexplicable reason. If we signed Al Jefferson in the off season and had a front line of Jefferson, Horford and Smith with Teague and Korver in the back court, we could compete with Miami if Smith stayed in his lane!And for those of you in favor of letting Teague go to some how make Josh Smith a better offensive player, You are retarded!