Synergy Sports tells it all about Hawks

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Josh Smith

The thing that people have complained for years, is that Josh Smith shoots too many jumpers. We all know that he is struggling this year. But WHY is he struggling? I cited my suspicion as to why I thought he was struggling in that Hawks - Magic thread, ( along with the fact that he is feeling the pressure of being "the man" ). And my suspicion is completely backed up by Synergy.

This is Josh's top 5 shot type breakdown from last season, along with the percent that he took that shot amongst all shots, the percentage he shot from the field on that shot, and his point per play on that shot.

Spot Up . . . 25.3% of shots . . . 36% FG . . . 0.81 ppp

Post Up . . . 19.3% of shots . . . 39% FG . . . 0.81 ppp

Isolation . . . 14% of shots . . . 38.7% FG . . . 0.80 ppp

Transition . . 13.1% of shots . . 70.5% FG . . . 1.14 ppp

Cut . . . . . . . 9.1% of shots . . . 67% FG . . . . 1.32 ppp

This is his top 5 shot type breakdown so far this year: ( current through last night's game )

Post Up . . . 26.8% of shots . . . 38.9% FG . . . 0.66 ppp

Spot Up . . . 22% of shots . . . . . 22.2% FG . . . 0.50 ppp

Cut . . . . . . . 14% of shots . . . . 45% FG . . . . 0.83 ppp

Isolation . . . 10.4% of shots . . . 25% FG . . . . 0.59 ppp

Transition . . . 7.9% of shots . . . 88.9% FG . . . 1.31 ppp

A few things stand out to me:

- Only 8% of his shots come in transition, which is a direct result of us not getting out and running. My suspicion is also that our guards are running the fast break looking to score on their own. I'm assuming this to be the case when I look at Teague's Synergy stats.

- The set shot jumper is completely broken so far this year. And that includes his FTs. The sign that he may get out of this horrendous shooting slump, is when he starts to make his FTs. But even 22% FG on spot ups for Josh Smith is way below his normal bad shooting.

- He's posting more and shooting a slightly higher percentage on his post up shots . . but is scoring less per play. Why? That's easy . . . the turnover rate ( which is 13.6% on this shot, compared to 6.7% last year )

[TheNorthCydeRises]

(( Note: I'm not trying to do every player, and I may only get through one or two more today. But I will try to do a lot more tomorrow, since I have the day off. ))

Al Horford

I've said from the offseason that what may happen sometime later this year, is a power struggle between Horford and Smith as to who is truly "the man" on the team. What I didn't anticipate is Jeff Teague also possibly being in that mix, along with Lou Williams ( who has become our ISO-LOU in the 4th quarters of games ). But Horford so far has been pretty good. His usage is up to 20.7% so far, which would represent the 1st time ever that he's getting 20% usage. But should it be even more?

Al's top 5 shot types this year

Post Up . . . . . 22.6% of shots . . . 50% FG . . . 0.96 ppp

Cut . . . . . . . . 19.4% of shots . . . 66.7% FG . . 1.29 ppp

Spot Up . . . . . 15.3% of shots . . . 17.6% FG . . 0.37 ppp

P&R Roll Man . 12.9% of shots . . . 50% FG . . . 1.06 ppp

Transition . . . . 9.7% of shots . . . . 90% FG . . . 1.50 ppp

- The days of thinking of Al as a strictly midrange scorer are gone . . at least for now. He's posting up more than ever, and is receiving the ball more on cuts to the basket. He's really doing a solid job with scoring the basketball in the paint. The question now is . . should he be getting the ball even more? The early numbers suggest that answer is yes.

- LOL @ 17.6% FG on his spot up jumpers. I thought that was definitely a misprint. But looking at what Synergy calls a spot up jumper, he has missed a lot of them. And the majority of the misses came in the Sacramento and LA Clipper game.

- The jumpers we DO see Horford make, mainly comes from the pick and roll, and a few off screens and in isolation. When the spot up jumpers start to fall again, this may do one or two things. He may start to settle for that shot a lot more, and not go inside. Or it may add to his offensive arsenal, and make him a more explosive scorer. If that happens, and Josh continues to shoot poorly, look for Horford to see HIMSELF as "the man", instead of Josh.

- Defensively, people have been scoring pretty easily on Al. People are posting him up 44% of the time, and shooting 54% FG. Blake Griffin and David West did major damage against Al in these situations. On Spot Ups, which represents 32% of the shots Al defends against, opponents are shooting a whopping 59% FG on him. It looks like quicker PFs are having their way with him so far.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

Good post. Interesting stuff here... I completely agree with you that the uptempo style that everyone thought they were going to play isn't happening and it is part of the reason why Smith is struggling, but I don't expect him to be like this the whole season. The first half of the Portland game showed what this team is capable of when they get out in transition and run. This team is built for run and gun. Hell, even Horford is capable in the fastbreak. LD needs to turn the tempo up and get these boys running!

[Kimsey]

If you watch most/all the games what will these stats tell you. I mean you should be able to digest what you see in front of you considering todays technology.If it's a free agent like David West or Al Jefferson we may pursue these numbers have purpose but for guys I've seen play 1000 some odd games, maybe the data can show something different I doubt it.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Jeff Teague

Teague is having success because he's finally handling the ball a lot often, and he's making plays in his comfort areas. The turning point for Teague as a player, is if he can start getting some foul calls when he drives to the hole. He got hit last night on a drive in which he made a basket, and the referee made a "play on" soccer type of gesture when Jeff gave him that "you didn't call THAT foul" face.

Over 50% FG for Jeff this season, because he's not trying to do things he has no business doing. He's basically only taking 3 types of shots.

P&R Ball Handler . . . 43% of shots . . . 51.3% FG . . . 0.85 ppp

Transition . . . . . . . . 20.3% of shots . . 61.1% FG . . . 1.15 ppp

Isolation . . . . . . . . . 17.2% of shots . . . 33.3% FG . . . 0.68 ppp

Quick note about Teague's poor shooting in isolation. Almost ALL of those misses are coming with either the shot clock or game clock in a quarter below 5 seconds. In essence, what used to be the times in which JJ would have the ball with the clock running down, has now been transferred to Teague.

Teague's funky release on his jumper does not enable him to simply rise up over his man and shoot over top of him. Teague needs space. The Synergy video clips either show him trying to force a drive past his man, or do a lot of charge then step back dribbles to create enough space to get his shot off.

The other thing are the turnovers in the pick and roll, which came to a head in the Sacramento game. He's turning the ball over on 25% of his P&R plays. To me though, these are the perils and growing pains of being the main ball handler. He has never had that role on this team until this year, so he does need time ( and minutes ) to play through any mistakes he's making right now.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I'll do some of the rest either late tonight or tomorrow.

[Peoriabird]

Josh Smith

The thing that people have complained for years, is that Josh Smith shoots too many jumpers. We all know that he is struggling this year. But WHY is he struggling? I cited my suspicion as to why I thought he was struggling in that Hawks - Magic thread, ( along with the fact that he is feeling the pressure of being "the man" ). And my suspicion is completely backed up by Synergy.

This is Josh's top 5 shot type breakdown from last season, along with the percent that he took that shot amongst all shots, the percentage he shot from the field on that shot, and his point per play on that shot.

Spot Up . . . 25.3% of shots . . . 36% FG . . . 0.81 ppp

Post Up . . . 19.3% of shots . . . 39% FG . . . 0.81 ppp

Isolation . . . 14% of shots . . . 38.7% FG . . . 0.80 ppp

Transition . . 13.1% of shots . . 70.5% FG . . . 1.14 ppp

Cut . . . . . . . 9.1% of shots . . . 67% FG . . . . 1.32 ppp

This is his top 5 shot type breakdown so far this year: ( current through last night's game )

Post Up . . . 26.8% of shots . . . 38.9% FG . . . 0.66 ppp

Spot Up . . . 22% of shots . . . . . 22.2% FG . . . 0.50 ppp

Cut . . . . . . . 14% of shots . . . . 45% FG . . . . 0.83 ppp

Isolation . . . 10.4% of shots . . . 25% FG . . . . 0.59 ppp

Transition . . . 7.9% of shots . . . 88.9% FG . . . 1.31 ppp

A few things stand out to me:

- Only 8% of his shots come in transition, which is a direct result of us not getting out and running. My suspicion is also that our guards are running the fast break looking to score on their own. I'm assuming this to be the case when I look at Teague's Synergy stats.

- The set shot jumper is completely broken so far this year. And that includes his FTs. The sign that he may get out of this horrendous shooting slump, is when he starts to make his FTs. But even 22% FG on spot ups for Josh Smith is way below his normal bad shooting.

- He's posting more and shooting a slightly higher percentage on his post up shots . . but is scoring less per play. Why? That's easy . . . the turnover rate ( which is 13.6% on this shot, compared to 6.7% last year )

Nah, Smith is shooting poorly because he sucks on offense and can deal with someone else on the team being the lead scorer.

[Peoriabird]

Nah, Smith is shooting poorly because he sucks on offense and can deal with someone else on the team being the lead scorer.

I meant can't deal with a teammate being the lead scorer

[Jody23]

Nice and interesting posts from Northcyde. Regarding Smith, I don't think it should take much longer for both Drew and Josh to figure out that he shouldn't be and isn't the best option offensively for this team. Not sure if either one will get it though.

[Guest]

Already? Your sample size is sitting at 8 for Josh, or right around 10% on the year. Wait until we get at least 33% before you start making any inference on this.I am not dismissing the information, I am just pointing out one should not have great confidence in this data being representative of Josh/Al/Jeff/whoever for the year.

[Plainview1981]

(( Note: I'm not trying to do every player, and I may only get through one or two more today. But I will try to do a lot more tomorrow, since I have the day off. ))

Al Horford

I've said from the offseason that what may happen sometime later this year, is a power struggle between Horford and Smith as to who is truly "the man" on the team. What I didn't anticipate is Jeff Teague also possibly being in that mix, along with Lou Williams ( who has become our ISO-LOU in the 4th quarters of games ). But Horford so far has been pretty good. His usage is up to 20.7% so far, which would represent the 1st time ever that he's getting 20% usage. But should it be even more?

Al's top 5 shot types this year

Post Up . . . . . 22.6% of shots . . . 50% FG . . . 0.96 ppp

Cut . . . . . . . . 19.4% of shots . . . 66.7% FG . . 1.29 ppp

Spot Up . . . . . 15.3% of shots . . . 17.6% FG . . 0.37 ppp

P&R Roll Man . 12.9% of shots . . . 50% FG . . . 1.06 ppp

Transition . . . . 9.7% of shots . . . . 90% FG . . . 1.50 ppp

- The days of thinking of Al as a strictly midrange scorer are gone . . at least for now. He's posting up more than ever, and is receiving the ball more on cuts to the basket. He's really doing a solid job with scoring the basketball in the paint. The question now is . . should he be getting the ball even more? The early numbers suggest that answer is yes.

- LOL @ 17.6% FG on his spot up jumpers. I thought that was definitely a misprint. But looking at what Synergy calls a spot up jumper, he has missed a lot of them. And the majority of the misses came in the Sacramento and LA Clipper game.

- The jumpers we DO see Horford make, mainly comes from the pick and roll, and a few off screens and in isolation. When the spot up jumpers start to fall again, this may do one or two things. He may start to settle for that shot a lot more, and not go inside. Or it may add to his offensive arsenal, and make him a more explosive scorer. If that happens, and Josh continues to shoot poorly, look for Horford to see HIMSELF as "the man", instead of Josh.

- Defensively, people have been scoring pretty easily on Al. People are posting him up 44% of the time, and shooting 54% FG. Blake Griffin and David West did major damage against Al in these situations. On Spot Ups, which represents 32% of the shots Al defends against, opponents are shooting a whopping 59% FG on him. It looks like quicker PFs are having their way with him so far.

I don't think Al wants to be "the man". I think he is happy being a 14/9 type of player... The issues to me appear to be more with Teague and Josh Smith. I don't think Teague likes giving the ball to Josh in half court at all... And it's obvious why.

The last part... I've never thought Al was a great defender... If he was, the team would have missed him more last year. ZaZa averaged, what... about 10PPG as a starter last season? I mean, for the most part he matched Al's production as a starter it felt like. Josh had to do a bit more last than he did before... But Al wasn't really missed last year. ZaZa was good for nearly 10/8 last year after all went down.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Hotlanta1981

[Diesel]

Without even delving into the Stats, this is the one thing that can be gathered. Josh is now trying to fill the shoes of being the man (face of the team). Those shoes don't fit. Josh can't be the scorer, he's a better Robin. But Horf nor Teague is a batman because neither knows how to share. There's only one guy who can share with Josh on this team and Josh won't do it. ZAZA... Zaza works a two man game with most PFs he plays beside... Weather it's Horf or Ivan. Josh won't do that kind of dirty work. Josh wants to look pretty. Teague can run the offense but he will only pass to Josh when Josh is moving. Teague runs plays. Joe would throw the ball to an isolated Josh. Josh won't see Isolation much in this offense. Also, where stats also mislead is transition. Josh transition is down because we don't transition as much. NO steals, rebounding down. The lineups that can do those things are less favorable for Josh. It's all chemistry.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Lou Williams

This was a quote from Lou back in August when questions were being asked about his role:

“I was off the ball [in Philadelphia], I would prefer to be off the ball, and I think both of those guys [Teague and Harris] are on the ball,” Williams said. “So I don’t think it will be an issue as much as people think it is. Once we open up camp I’m sure Coach [Larry] Drew will do a good job in figuring out where everyone is going to go….

“More attacking than catch-and-shoot,” Williams said. “Actually catch-and-shoot is one of the things I’ve been able to work on this whole summer. Coming down in transition and catching the ball and shooting, instead of catching and trying to create so much off the dribble.”

So let's see if anything has changed for Lou since he's left Philly

Top 5 shot types in 2011 - 12:

P&R Ball Handler . . 29.6% of shots . . . 41.1% FG . . . 0.94 ppp

Isolation . . . . . . . . . 18.2% of shots . . . 36% FG . . . . 0.90 ppp

Transition . . . . . . . . 12.8% of shots . . . 49% FG . . . . 1.20 ppp

Spot Up . . . . . . . . . 11.9% of shots . . . 34.4% FG . . . 0.96 ppp

So far this season

P&R Ball Handler . . . 48.1% of shots . . . 34% FG . . . 0.76 ppp

Transition . . . . . . . . . 13.7% of shots . . 54.5% FG . . 1.11 ppp

Isolation . . . . . . . . . . 13% of shots . . . 26.7% FG . . 0.65 ppp

Spot Up . . . . . . . . . . 9.9% of shots . . . 36.4% FG . . 1.15 ppp

Don't worry Lou. Drew is going to make SURE that you're off the ball ( if ever ), judging by the early returns. And we can't afford to have you off the ball anyway, seeing how you're like the only legit guy on the team who can create his own shot off the dribble and get a jumpshot ( even if the shooting is kinda off right now ).

The one thing I don't like seeing from Lou so far, are all of the 3 point shots he's taking out of the Pick and Roll. He's 5 - 23 FG when he's taking a 3 off the Pick and Roll as the ball handler. Those 23 threes represent 49% of his total shots out of this type of play ( compared to 23% of of those shots being threes ). And most of these are flat out terrible shots. It's the kind of crap that I used to despise about Jamal Crawford, when he used to jack those same type of shots up even when ice cold.

Just take better shots Lou. Or use your foul drawing skills to get to the line.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

The last part... I've never thought Al was a great defender... If he was, the team would have missed him more last year. ZaZa averaged, what... about 10PPG as a starter last season? I mean, for the most part he matched Al's production as a starter it felt like. Josh had to do a bit more last than he did before... But Al wasn't really missed last year. ZaZa was good for nearly 10/8 last year after all went down.

6'11" 275 is better at the center position than 6'10" 250... I'd like to see Al's defensive production at PF w/ Zaza at C. We have all been saying it for years that Horf should be a 4.

[Peoriabird]

Lou Williams

The one thing I don't like seeing from Lou so far, are all of the 3 point shots he's taking out of the Pick and Roll. He's 5 - 23 FG when he's taking a 3 off the Pick and Roll as the ball handler. Those 23 threes represent 49% of his total shots out of this type of play ( compared to 23% of of those shots being threes ). And most of these are flat out terrible shots. It's the kind of crap that I used to despise about Jamal Crawford, when he used to jack those same type of shots up even when ice cold.

Just take better shots Lou. Or use your foul drawing skills to get to the line.

Yet another Drewism! But y'all still think that he isn't the problem? Taking a player that knew the benefit of drawing fouls by driving to the basket and turning him into Jamal Crawford. This can't be just a coincidence.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Already? Your sample size is sitting at 8 for Josh, or right around 10% on the year. Wait until we get at least 33% before you start making any inference on this. I am not dismissing the information, I am just pointing out one should not have great confidence in this data being representative of Josh/Al/Jeff/whoever for the year.

Great confidence in the data? The data is what it is. Why wait until Christmas to toss out what the data is currently showing about the Hawks? If anything, showing what the team is doing right now, may illustrate how some players got better or regressed as the season wore on. If that's the case, why would any of these stat sites like Hoopdata, Synergy, or 82games put out their numbers this early in the season? It's my suspicion that if Josh were playing great, you'd have little if any problem with the stats showing how great he is. Josh has plenty of time to get back to the player we know him to be. I honestly don't expect him to play this bad offensively the rest of the year, so I'll track this to see which areas of his game improved throughout the year.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

6'11" 275 is better at the center position than 6'10" 250... I'd like to see Al's defensive production at PF w/ Zaza at C. We have all been saying it for years that Horf should be a 4.

The only indication of that we can see about Horford, is via 82games.com. I'm glad they're updating their site a little more frequently than in year's past.

Al Horford Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production at PF

22.4 ppg ( on 17.7 shots )

12 rpg

3.5 asst

2.3 turnovers

53.3% eFG% . . ( 36% inside FG% )

PER: 18.8

Al Horford Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production at C

16.5 ppg ( on 11.8 shots )

18.5 rebs

4.1 asst

4.1 turnovers

54.1% eFG% . . ( 59% inside FG% )

PER: 18.8

The good thing about Al, is that despite these bad man defensive numbers, he's slightly outperforming the PF or C he's going up against. So while his defense could be much better, he isn't killing us either.

The same can be said about Smith, in the opposite way. He's playing bad offensively, but his defense has been good as ever so far this year, no matter where he plays. So even when he's having a poor game, it's not like the guy he's guarding is going off on him.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Kyle Korver

We all know what Kyle is. He's a 3 point specialist that will take about 55% of his shots from 3 point range. And to be more specific on offense, he's going to have 3 shot types

Spot Up . . . 38.8% of his shots . . . 33.3% FG . . . 0.87 ppp

Off Screen . 23.8% of his shots . . . 47.1% FG . . . 1.11 ppp

Transition . . 22.5% of his shots . . . 64.7% FG . . . 1.78 ppp

And let's focus on the transition opportunities for a minute. He's shooting 71% from three point range in transition, making 10 of his 14 threes off the break. Teague is doing a really good job in finding Korver when he gets the ball and pushes it up the court. He's not out of control and is actively looking for Korver, who shoots it as soon as he catches it from Teague ( or Josh on some plays ).

Overall defensively, Korver has been ( dare I say it . . ) stellar on defense. Opponents are only shooting 32% FG against him.

They are also only shooting 4 - 24 ( 17% ) from 3 when he's guarding them. I don't know if people are really noticing it during games, but he really closes out hard on jumpshooters. In the past, guys like Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and sometimes Josh Smith were notorious for weak closeouts on 3 point shooters. But you can tell that Thibodeau in Chicago really stressed this to Korver. No such thing as "hand down, man down" with Kyle.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Devin Harris

Devin isn't really doing anything well so far, on both ends of the court. He has 3 main scoring types right now

P&R Ball Handler . . . 32.3% of his shots . . . 40% FG . . . . 0.44 ppp ( will explain this in a minute )

Spot Up . . . . . . . . . . 32.1% of his shots . . . 26.7% FG . . 0.72 ppp

Transition . . . . . . . . . 17.9% of his shots . . . 44.4% FG . . 1.1 ppp

The reason why he only has a 0.44 ppp on the Pick and Roll, is because he turns it over 44% of the time on that play. On some of these plays, you shake your head and wonder if dude has ever ran the pick and roll. And it's not because players are out of position, or fumbling away passes. It's because Devin either loses the ball himself going to the hole, or gets stripped making his move, or even trying to throw a behind the back bounce pass to Anthony Tolliver at the 3 point arc.

Defensively, he's not much better, especially when talking about defending the 3 point line. Some of this isn't his fault though, because when he plays the 2, taller 2 guards are simply shooting right over top of him, even if he challenges the shot. Other times though, he's simply lost in the play, leaving his man wide open, or not closing out on a shooter well.

He's making it easy for Drew to choose between He, Lou, and Teague. He hasn't had a double figure scoring game, nor more than 4 assists in a game all year.

[Plainview1981]

Without even delving into the Stats, this is the one thing that can be gathered. Josh is now trying to fill the shoes of being the man (face of the team). Those shoes don't fit. Josh can't be the scorer, he's a better Robin. But Horf nor Teague is a batman because neither knows how to share. There's only one guy who can share with Josh on this team and Josh won't do it. ZAZA... Zaza works a two man game with most PFs he plays beside... Weather it's Horf or Ivan. Josh won't do that kind of dirty work. Josh wants to look pretty. Teague can run the offense but he will only pass to Josh when Josh is moving. Teague runs plays. Joe would throw the ball to an isolated Josh. Josh won't see Isolation much in this offense. Also, where stats also mislead is transition. Josh transition is down because we don't transition as much. NO steals, rebounding down. The lineups that can do those things are less favorable for Josh. It's all chemistry.

Josh Smith is not a robin either.