Mike Smith Blunders: Plays Starters for Entire Meaningless Game

[jhay610]

Smith chose to play his regulars for the ENTIRE meaningless game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game which had no bearing on playoff seedings or any ramifications whatsoever for either team, other than draft order for the Bucs.

I understand that Smith is thinking he must approach this situation differently, as the Falcons chose to rest their regulars in a similar situation before Green Bay came and razed the Dome a couple of years back. I also understand that pro football rosters are much shorter than collegiate ones, so it was imperative that *some* of the starters play *some* of the time.

However, I think the benefits of retaining any supposed edge and 'staying sharp' by playing the starters are far outweighed by the risks. The scarcity of opportunity to play as the #1 seed and reap all of its associated benefits mandate that asset/resource preservation must take absolute priority over all other matters.

What I mean is, it's so hard to get to this point with a reasonably healthy roster, and injuries are so prolific in the NFL, that you just can't risk incurring one to a key participant in the pursuit of the retention of some mythological 'edge'.

If the regulars need reps, it is far better to have them go at full speed in a controlled practice environment than against a division rival with nothing to lose and nothing to look forward to but the offseason.

I was stunned to see Matt Ryan dropping back time and again in the 4th qtr, as defensive linemen and blitzing linebackers fired off the line of scrimmage, assured of a passing play.

I am more interested in the process/approach than the results, but in this case one of the worst case scenarios played out as John Abraham, the team's premier pass rusher, sustained what appeared to be a high ankle sprain. This is potentially a serious blow to a team that is glaringly deficient at generating a pass rush.

The Falcons have been secretive about Abraham's status, with Smith playing down the extent of the injury, and no one outside of Flowery Branch knows exactly what the extent of it is. All I know is I saw Abraham carted off, unable to put weight on the ankle. I also know that a high sprain takes more than two or three weeks to heel, and if Abe is on the field, we should probably expect him to be operating at less than, potentially significantly less than, 100%.

I think this was a serious blunder by M. Smith. My opinion of him is that he is a very good coach overall -- a great leader of men and program manager. However, as a tactician/game manager, there have been more than a few decisions that have irked me as a fan. Issues such as clock management, 1pt/2pt decisions, 4th down strategy have been recurring themes. There was also the challenge gaffe in the Arizona game (similar to the Det/Hou Thanksgiving game, although it did not end up hurting the Falcons). That is a stupid rule that should be changed, but your job as a coach is to be informed of such things.

Anyway, end of rant. I simply could not believe my eyes on Sunday. I thought it was obtuse, stubborn, short-term thinking. It really irked me to see our regulars out subjected to serious injury in the 3rd and 4th qtrs, to the point where I almost wanted to see Matt Ryan sustain a serious injury just so Smith would be subjected to the level of scrutiny and blame that he should be, in my mind.

And no, this will not be forgotten even if the Falcons win the Super Bowl, as it highlights procedural/systemic issues and fundamentally deficient thinking, in my opinion.

Edited January 3, 2013 by jhay610

[macdaddy]

Definitely looked like a high ankle sprain. We cannot afford to go to the playoffs without Abraham. I sure hope he is really ok but like you i'm skeptical.

My issue was we were playing the starters but not really trying to win that hard toward the end of the game. By the fourth we obviously needed a good comeback to win the game. Just throw in the towel at that point. I can understand trying to win the game but once we were down late then just give up rather than a half hearted effort to win.

Plus we got someone else on D with a concussion. Who was that? I can't remember robinson maybe? With a concussion he can't just say he's ready to play. He'll have to be medically cleared. Crossing fingers.

Go Falcons.

[jhay610]

Yes. Robinson sustained a concussion, but that was in Quarter 1, so I have less of an issue with it. We were thin at corner anyway coming in, so he would have had to play some.

[Admin]

I am kind of on the fence about this philosophy but I think I was swayed some watching the Tom Coughlin "A Football Life" where he talks about when he played his starters in that final game against the Patriots during their 1st Super Bowl win of the Coughlin era. He talked about how one of the proudest moments of his life was when he got a call the following day from John Madden congratulating him on playing his starters even though it was a meaningless game as far as playoff seeding went and how that's how football is supposed to be played. Now I know that Madden is kind of a kook at this point in his life, but the guy is an NFL legend and knows more about football than probably anyone alive.

Time will tell if this was a good strategy by the Falcons. They have a week off to rest guys, but to also get rusty. I don't know their injury situation but they seemed fairly healthy so they didn't need 2 weeks of rest to get healthy as far as I can tell so I can definitely understand wanting to keep the starters sharp.

[DrReality]

Luckily none of the injuries were serious and it looks like we will be back to full strength next week.

[jhay610]

DrReality -- How do you know? As far as I know, the Falcons have not released an official injury report on Abraham. My guess is he is not 100% on Sunday. He could not put any weight on his ankle last week.

Dolfan, my point kind of flies in the face of this kind of 'old guard' thinking.Of course, both Tom Coughlin and John Madden know more about football than I will ever know, but it's exactly this type of rigid traditionalism that I am arguing against. The idea that 'that's how the game is meant to be played' and 'keeping the starters sharp' is exactly what I am opposed to here.

I think the risk of injury to a key player in a trivial game is a far greater adverse outcome than any supposed edge retention that could be attained by playing them. I am not so concerned about the outcome -- even though I think it has cost the Falcons their best defensive end -- and I don't think a win or loss on Sunday will speak to that either.

I am more concerned with the process, and advancing the thought process on the subject. To me, it is reminiscent of baseball writers trying to portray the sabermetrics crowd as geeks sitting around in room full of calculators, crunching numbers, when 'real baseball guys' make decisions with their 'gut' and their 'heart'.

I just don't see the benefit of risking your starters in the 4th qtr in a game like that, and I can't accept 'that's the way the game was meant to be played' as a valid argument for it. I just can't see how playing the full four quarters of that pointless contest will in any way better prepare them for a playoff game a fortnight away. The pace and tone of the game was that of a preseason contest, and I think we can all agree that those are not reliable predictors of regular season success. The opportunity to play as the number one seed is so rare that you have to gear your entire line of thinking towards maximizing it.

It's odd that coaches tend to err on the wreckless side of the issue because they are normally so risk averse -- for instance, they all punt far more often than statistical analysis would suggest is optimal, because a) most of them cut their teeth doing things 'by the book' and b) if you are perceived as taking a risk and lose, you get killed for it (even if the decision was correct) and will quickly find yourself headed out the door. However, for whatever reason, playing the regs in the last week is considered the correct strategy by the old guard.

Finally, just to head off the argument -- the idea bandied about by the pundits that 'the hottest team going into the playoffs wins the Super Bowl' is rooted in hyperbole, not statistics.

Edited January 7, 2013 by jhay610

[AHF]

I agree that nonsense like talking about how the game is "meant" to be played isn't useful. However, I don't have my mind made up on whether it is better to rest players or not. The data seems inconclusive. I won't slam a coach for this because my mind is not made up on the right thing to do. There are plenty of examples of teams that rested players and came out and lost to an underdog and examples of teams that rested and blew out a team that played the prior week. I'm also not sure that there is a simple "best" way to do this - it is very possible that for some teams the rest is more valuable and other teams continuity of rhythm, activity, etc. is more valuable.

I'm not sure that adds much to this conversation but I'll just throw my uncertainty on this subject into the mix.

[macdaddy]

Abraham is listed as questionable for Sunday. At this point i'm hoping we can win without him and he can return for the remainder of the playoffs.

Whether his playing was the right move or not this definitely sucks.

[Admin]

Well hard to say whether or not the strategy worked but they got the W and that's all that matters. Gonna have to play a lot better next week to beat the niners though! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I727 using Tapatalk 2

[jhay610]

Abraham was indeed slowed and left the game in the 2nd qtr. He did not return and faces a week of rehabbing to try and get out there at half speed again.

The Falcons had major problems generating any kind of pass rush, as Russell Wilson could have run a lemonade stand in the pocket and still have time to run for 10 or 15 yards when out of product.

In my book this remains a bonehead move and there was definitely a price to pay. Happy to win and move on though.

[macdaddy]

Abraham was indeed slowed and left the game in the 2nd qtr. He did not return and faces a week of rehabbing to try and get out there at half speed again.

The Falcons had major problems generating any kind of pass rush, as Russell Wilson could have run a lemonade stand in the pocket and still have time to run for 10 or 15 yards when out of product.

In my book this remains a bonehead move and there was definitely a price to pay. Happy to win and move on though.

Unbelievable win but not having any pass rush definitely hurt us. I can't see Abraham being healthy in another week. High ankle sprain takes a while. We need to find a way. This SF QB is now the media darling so we need to work on containing him.

[jhay610]

Post-mortem: John Abraham was a shadow of his normal safe and was absolutely a non-factor. Unsurprisingly, the Falcons were not able to apply pressure to the passer in either playoff game and were shredded.

Congratulations, Mike Smith!

[macdaddy]

Post-mortem: John Abraham was a shadow of his normal safe and was absolutely a non-factor. Unsurprisingly, the Falcons were not able to apply pressure to the passer in either playoff game and were shredded.

Congratulations, Mike Smith!

That was really a shame. The look on Abraham's face on the sideline told it all. Of course we should have more than one guy who can get some pressure on the QB and it was pretty much a team wide collapse in the 4th quarter. I don't care how bad the defense looked in the second half if the offense can't get one score you don't deserve the super bowl.

Now they are talking about releasing Abraham which would suck.