Cap space article.

[Buzzard]

Moving Horford can bring you back another piece. You aren't thinking about this as a whole picture thing. For example, you can't trade Josh for Rondo right now. But you could trade Al for Rondo and keep Josh.

1st I have heard of this. Do you have a link on this Horford for Rondo trade or pure hope/speculation that we can trade Horford but not Josh for him?

[AHF]

I would rather swing for the fences than sign some B or C level free agents. Hit the HR in FA or tank and take another shot at the impact FAs in a year or two.

A team like this (which represents a pretty near best case FA) would win nothing of consequence while tying up cap space for the next 4 years:

Teague 9M (4 years)

Evans 12M (4 years)

Korver 4M

Horford 12M (3 years)

Jefferson 12M (4 years)

Lou 5.2M (2 years)

Jenkins 1.2M

Scott 0.8M

Ivan 1.2M

1st Round Pick

1st Round Pick

Scrub

Scrub

Cap Room: $0

Lottery opportunities: Near 0%

[AHawks89]

Yup, I agree with AHH. Go for the HR or tank. No more signing B list players and being stuck in mediocrity for more years.

[Buzzard]

I would rather swing for the fences than sign some B or C level free agents. Hit the HR in FA or tank and take another shot at the impact FAs in a year or two.

A team like this (which represents a pretty near best case FA) would win nothing of consequence while tying up cap space for the next 4 years:

Teague 9M (4 years)

Evans 12M (4 years)

Korver 4M

Horford 12M (3 years)

Jefferson 12M (4 years)

Lou 5.2M (2 years)

Jenkins 1.2M

Scott 0.8M

Ivan 1.2M

1st Round Pick

1st Round Pick

Scrub

Scrub

Cap Room: $0

Lottery opportunities: Near 0%

I don't think that team is useless even though I would rather have Pekovic over Jefferson. IMO that team is better than any team we had during the JJ years so its a legit shot to get out of the 2nd round.

[Guest]

I don't think that team is useless even though I would rather have Pekovic over Jefferson. IMO that team is better than any team we had during the JJ years so its a legit shot to get out of the 2nd round.

It's not useless - good enough to get into the playoffs, maybe win the 1st round and struggle to get out of the 2nd. Sounds like the same kind of team to me. I want Ferry to build a team that will be always in contention or close to contending, not a team trying to make it out of the 1st round of the playoffs. IF we don't get that big star in free agency and the B/C listers want too much money for too many years I prefer to pass on them.

I'm tired of being middle of the pack fodder.

[yungsta]

That is what I have been saying for awhile. Either get a legit star you can build around or tank and go into asset collecting mode and get some fresh young talent.

With the new CBA there will be teams desperate to get under the luxury tax line and will have to give up talent like memphis and OKC or teams willing to give up unprotected picks for us to take on some less than desirable deals so they can save money.

[JETSET]

Moving Horford can bring you back another piece. You aren't thinking about this as a whole picture thing. For example, you can't trade Josh for Rondo right now. But you could trade Al for Rondo and keep Josh.

So ask yourself. Is Rondo/Josh/Dwight better than Teague/Horford/FA? This is a complicated mess of who can you get to take our money and how much of it do you have to give up to get them here and if you build around Horford you don't have tradable assets. If you build around Josh you get Horford as a tradable asset. If you trade Horford for a comparable PG/SG/SF, you now have the goods to sign Dwight. Don't think of it as comparing Josh and Al...its a puzzle, not a straight up comparison. By letting Josh get to free agency and letting all your talent get to F/A...the only assets you now have are Horford, Teague and an injured Williams. Even Jenkins, Scott and your two draft picks aren't real assets at this point thanks to Drew barely playing developing the rooks.

Because of the difference between the cap and the LT you can't just sign 70 million in talent but you can trade for it to fill in the gaps. Building your roster into a contender is easier building around Dwight and trading Al than letting Josh walk and hoping to sign the best of what's left after Dwight/CP3.

A trio of Rondo/Dwight/Josh would never sniff a title so I would rather keep Horford and let Teague walk. Bring in some scrubs on 1 year deals and tank for a high pick in the starstudded 2014 draft. I don't see why people keep insisting on Rondo/Howard/Smith. How do you not realize that this is a terrible combo? This would be like the Nets. The cap would be maxed out and you wouldn't have a shot at a title. Terrible position to be in. I'm tired of being a treadmill team and I don't see how every one doesn't feel the same. I don't want any part of Jefferson or Mayo either.

and who says the Celtics would trade Rondo for Horford in the first place?

[Buzzard]

That is what I have been saying for awhile. Either get a legit star you can build around or tank and go into asset collecting mode and get some fresh young talent.

With the new CBA there will be teams desperate to get under the luxury tax line and will have to give up talent like memphis and OKC or teams willing to give up unprotected picks for us to take on some less than desirable deals so they can save money.

I get what you guys want to happen with the lottery but it is really hard to be #1, #2. #3 pick bad. I don't think most of you who want to tank understand that. Back in the early BK days we sucked, as soon as we got JJ our top 5 lottery picks went out the window.

In other words so long as we have Horford and a reasonable core around him we are not going to be horrible enough for the kind of odds most of you want. You want the 1st pick in next seasons draft, dump Horford and Smoove then we have a top 5 chance.

I remember those days and would rather trust Ferry to use the draft, trades, and cap these next two seasons; rather than sucking for three years or more and counting on the lottery balls and the so called can't miss picks.

[AHF]

I get what you guys want to happen with the lottery but it is really hard to be #1, #2. #3 pick bad. I don't think most of you who want to tank understand that. Back in the early BK days we sucked, as soon as we got JJ our top 5 lottery picks went out the window.

In other words so long as we have Horford and a reasonable core around him we are not going to be horrible enough for the kind of odds most of you want. You want the 1st pick in next seasons draft, dump Horford and Smoove then we have a top 5 chance.

I remember those days and would rather trust Ferry to use the draft, trades, and cap these next two seasons; rather than sucking for three years or more and counting on the lottery balls and the so called can't miss picks.

We have Horford and not much more right now. We could tank very effectively if we wanted without much difficulty. In that case, we wouldn't have to sign a "reasonable" core. Signings like a single year deal for Darko could be done. We have as close to a blank slate as any team in the league.

So I get not wanting to tank and thinking other routes are better but let's at least start with the acknowledgement that if we really want to tank, we can do exactly that.

Personally, I am open to different approaches but my nightmare is us signing some B/C level free agents who end up being worse than expected and suddenly we are stuck with Ben Gordon type terrible salaries killing our cap while we still suck as a worst case or, as a better but unacceptable case, just resetting for 4 more years of early playoff exits in a plan like I listed earlier in the thread.

[Admin]

We have Horford and not much more right now. We could tank very effectively if we wanted without much difficulty. In that case, we wouldn't have to sign a "reasonable" core. Signings like a single year deal for Darko could be done. We have as close to a blank slate as any team in the league.

So I get not wanting to tank and thinking other routes are better but let's at least start with the acknowledgement that if we really want to tank, we can do exactly that.

Personally, I am open to different approaches but my nightmare is us signing some B/C level free agents who end up being worse than expected and suddenly we are stuck with Ben Gordon type terrible salaries killing our cap while we still suck as a worst case or, as a better but unacceptable case, just resetting for 4 more years of early playoff exits in a plan like I listed earlier in the thread.

Wait did we fire Ferry and hire Joe Dumars or Michael Jordan or Otis Smith? I completely get what you're saying but in Ferry we trust and there's no way he's going to cripple us with mediocre talent on overpaid long term contracts.

And it's gonna be hard to tank when you've got the Boss dominating next year averaging 25 and 15 on a team full of scrubs if we don't land the marquee players this offseason. Combine that with a weak Eastern Conference and I could easily see a team led by Horford, Lou and Jenkins (plus hopefully Scott) sneak into the playoffs even if we don't want them to.

[AHF]

Wait did we fire Ferry and hire Joe Dumars or Michael Jordan or Otis Smith? I completely get what you're saying but in Ferry we trust and there's no way he's going to cripple us with mediocre talent on overpaid long term contracts.

And it's gonna be hard to tank when you've got the Boss dominating next year averaging 25 and 15 on a team full of scrubs if we don't land the marquee players this offseason. Combine that with a weak Eastern Conference and I could easily see a team led by Horford, Lou and Jenkins (plus hopefully Scott) sneak into the playoffs even if we don't want them to.

Ferry doesn't have my complete trust yet. I like what he has done so far but I wasn't that impressed with his work in Cleveland.

My earlier example wasn't mediocre or overpaid per se - it just was more like the Nets than a true contender.

Teague

Evans

Korver

Horford

Jefferson

Lou

Jenkins

Scott

Ivan

1st

1st

etc.

I'd rather tank than see that team locked in for the next 4 years.

[AHF]

Let me add that my viewpoint derives largely from the fact that I believe you need a star to become a champion. Most teams have had a homegrown star on their championship team and virtually all of them have had a superstar (LA - Kobe, homegrown, Shaq FA/trade; Mia - Wade, homegrown, Lebron/Bosh FA/trades; Spurs - Duncan, Parker, Manu homegrown; Celtics - PP/Rondo, homegrown, KG/Allen, FA/trades; etc.).

I think a team like the Pistons team that won a single championship without a superstar (Billups, Prince, Wallaces, Hamilton) is the exception that proves the rule and that trying that formula has led to lots of mediocre teams (including pretty much every successful Hawks team post Nique). So while getting a superstar doesn't guarantee you a championship, trying to build through lesser players is not a good strategy if your goal is to be a championship team. If the goal is to make the playoffs, then Tyreke Evans, Al Jefferson and some solid role players is a great strategy but not a championship one.

If we can't attract a superstar this offseason in FA, there won't be any available next offseason. That leaves the draft as a viable avenue of attack - particularly considering the 2014 draft promises to be one of the best drafts at the top of the draft that we have seen in the NBA for years.

[Peoriabird]

I chose playoff teams over 10 win teams...We can be like Memphis with the right coach.

[AHF]

I chose playoff teams over 10 win teams...We can be like Memphis with the right coach.

That is a legit view.

Of the last 40 NBA champions, 7 of them didn't draft the finals MVP:2012 Miami Heat - Lebron2004 Detroit Pistons - Billups2000-02 Lakers - Shaq1985 Lakers - Kareem1983 Sixers - Moses

1 of the last 40 NBA champions didn't have a drafted, All-NBA, star playing at least as the second best player on their team in the NBA finals.

[Buzzard]

Let me add that my viewpoint derives largely from the fact that I believe you need a star to become a champion. Most teams have had a homegrown star on their championship team and virtually all of them have had a superstar (LA - Kobe, homegrown, Shaq FA/trade; Mia - Wade, homegrown, Lebron/Bosh FA/trades; Spurs - Duncan, Parker, Manu homegrown; Celtics - PP/Rondo, homegrown, KG/Allen, FA/trades; etc.).

I think a team like the Pistons team that won a single championship without a superstar (Billups, Prince, Wallaces, Hamilton) is the exception that proves the rule and that trying that formula has led to lots of mediocre teams (including pretty much every successful Hawks team post Nique). So while getting a superstar doesn't guarantee you a championship, trying to build through lesser players is not a good strategy if your goal is to be a championship team. If the goal is to make the playoffs, then Tyreke Evans, Al Jefferson and some solid role players is a great strategy but not a championship one.

If we can't attract a superstar this offseason in FA, there won't be any available next offseason. That leaves the draft as a viable avenue of attack - particularly considering the 2014 draft promises to be one of the best drafts at the top of the draft that we have seen in the NBA for years.

Thing is most teams drafted one of their main cogs but OKC is the only team I can think of off the top of my head that drafted both of their top players. I think that goes to my statement about it being very hard to be a 1.2,or 3rd worse team once you get a solid all star.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Buzzard

[AHF]

Thing is most teams drafted one of their main cogs but OKC is the only team I can think of off the top of my head that drafted both of their top players. I think that goes to my statement about it being very hard to be a 1.2,or 3rd worse team once you get a solid all star.

If we can sign Howard and CP, then you have your stars and I am content. If we get either of them, I can take a shot at that. If we are hoping that Al Horford, Al Jefferson and Tyreke Evans are going to win a championship that is fools gold.

If you go through the draft, get your superstar through the draft and then fill around that star.

I agree with your message but have to point out that until you draft that star pretty much nobody successfully builds their stud players all through FA. We don't have a player that is good enough to be the 2nd best player on an NBA championship team and we aren't going to get an in-his-prime Shaq type FA (even if we land Paul and/or Howard).

Howard and Paul are clearly my first choice for this offseason. The real issue is do you try to build with Evans, Mayo, Jefferson, etc. and tie up your cap space with a combination of those guys or do you tank hoping for a star or tread water waiting for the 2015 FA period.

[GameTime]

I chose playoff teams over 10 win teams...We can be like Memphis with the right coach.

We need to pump our brakes on Memphis. What have they won?

[Admin]

AHF that's all fine and dandy and I'm pretty sure that most here are hoping for Howard and CP3 as our offseason prizes but there's a very small chance of us landing both of those players and still not that great of a shot at us landing either of them.

My point is that Horford, Lou, Jenkins, Scott and 2 decent 1st round picks plus roster filler should be enough to squeak into the East playoffs or come damn close and that's if we don't spend another $ in FA than we have to. So tanking won't be easy unless we lose Horford for the majority of the season or something along those lines.

I certainly get not wanting to build around Jefferson but there's also Bynum and Pekovic who could be legit pieces of a championship team. Bynum has been there and done that and Pekovic is about as close to M. Gasol as there is. Put either of those guys next to Horford and you've got a tremendous front court. Re-sign Teague, get him a quality backup, then find a starting SF and then either add Evans or Mayo and you've got a pretty good roster. Hopefully one of the 17th or 18th picks in this years draft will turn into a starting caliber player or better. Or maybe you just draft SG and SF this year and forego Evans / Mayo and run with Pek/Bynum + Horford and wait for 2014 or even 2015. But for me I don't think you automatically go into tanking just because you don't land Howard and CP3 this offseason. They're the biggest prizes but they aren't the only prizes.

[Buzzard]

If we can sign Howard and CP, then you have your stars and I am content. If we get either of them, I can take a shot at that. If we are hoping that Al Horford, Al Jefferson and Tyreke Evans are going to win a championship that is fools gold.

If you go through the draft, get your superstar through the draft and then fill around that star.

I agree with your message but have to point out that until you draft that star pretty much nobody successfully builds their stud players all through FA. We don't have a player that is good enough to be the 2nd best player on an NBA championship team and we aren't going to get an in-his-prime Shaq type FA (even if we land Paul and/or Howard).

Howard and Paul are clearly my first choice for this offseason. The real issue is do you try to build with Evans, Mayo, Jefferson, etc. and tie up your cap space with a combination of those guys or do you tank hoping for a star or tread water waiting for the 2015 FA period.

I understand your point but its also about having assets. And I don't mean garbage tweener assets. Jefferson, Tyreke, Al, Teague are very tradeable assets. Kobe was aquired for Vlad. A 13th pick for any of the above is not out of the question.

I don't think Ferry is hanging his hat on one off season or draft. None of us should look at it that way.

Edited May 16, 2013 by Buzzard

[MaceCase]

I agree with AHF in that none of these secondary scenarios are championship caliber and worse, they are robbing the team of the flexibility to become championship caliber by both eating up necessary cap to swing a deal for true stars later either through future free agencies or trades and then not being bad enough to warrant a high enough draft pick.

Even with just Horford (come on now, stop the homerism) this is a team more likely to go the Indiana route where it's stuck in limbo for a few years at the 9th-10th seed in the East with talented prospects and no long term salary commitments. They waited to see if their young guys could make it to the playoffs first before deciding on adding high price veterans and still maintain cap flexibility to this day. Much rather go that route and tweak as need be than throwing out large dollar contracts this one summer and lock into mediocrity.