Official Al Jefferson thread

[Buzzard]

Jazz have no one around him.The Twolves and Celtics had bigs with the same weakness.......in Perkins and Love.It's not as simple as you make.On the right team Jefferson is a good piece.

Which is why the Spurs like him. You are correct in saying they had little help in Minny or Utah; and what help they did have was post play help. Which helps out a lot if your goal is to clog the lane.

A match up of Jefferson/Horford vs Birdman/Bosh, Hibbert/West, and Chandler/Melo would be so much better for us than using Josh/Horford.

[coachx]

I still contend that an Al Jefferson / Tyreke Evans type team is on a road to first and second round exits just like our last 5 years but I would be hoping I was wrong if that is where we end up.

Going into the season everyone thought the Spurs were done and the Pacers were a nobody. I don't think many expected to see Memphis in the Conference Championship either.

[AHF]

I haven't thought the Spurs were done once. I didn't think the Pacers were good enough to win a championship (still have serious doubts on that score) and thought the Grizzlies would be also rans. At least the Pacers won some in the conference finals. The Grizzlies were swept so kudos on getting good enough seeding to avoid the Spurs for the first two rounds. I do think all the teams in the West were lucky that Westbrook got hurt. If he hadn't, it would have been a Spurs/OKC contest with no one else having much of a chance to come out of the West and face the prohibitive favorite Miami Heat in the East this season.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

The problem with the Jefferson discussion is . . . who said he was going to be our leading scorer?

What he brings to the table, is an offensive option that we haven't had since Moses Malone . . . a legit low post scoring option. But it may very well be Horford that leads this team in scoring and gets the most touches.

Al Jefferson basically scored 18 points on 16 shots . . and 19 total offensive possessions.

Al Horford basically scored 17 points on 14 shots . . . and 17 offensive total possessions.

For a comparison, Josh Smith scored almost 18 points on 16 shots, but used 21 possessions to do so.

Give Jefferson 21 possessions, and he's getting you 20 points.

Give Horford 21 possessions, and he's getting you 21 points.

And the killer with Smith's extra possessions, is that those turnovers were absolute killers at times, while Horford will turn the ball over less, and Jefferson will hardly turn the ball over at all.

People talk about "inefficiency", but when you're scoring almost, or right at a point per possession, that is pretty good. If they both keep trending this way, you're talking about a frontline who isn't going to waste too many opportunities to score, even if they both don't get to the FT line.

[MaceCase]

Why are only points and turnovers factored into a possession but not assists?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Why are only points and turnovers factored into a possession but not assists?

Don't ask me.

Maybe because when the ball leaves your hands, and your teammate grabs it, you no longer possess the ball. But if you lose it yourself, you lost possession. Or if you shoot it, and scored, you used your possession to score.

[MaceCase]

No I am asking you specifically. Obviously an assist is a possession that leads directly to a score. I say this because if a player is only focused on his own scoring he will have lower turnovers than one that is focused on scoring and passing. So including the negative statistic (turnovers) and none of the positive (assists) seems like it would skew "efficiency" just a tad, no?

[Chinky_eyed_hawk]

If there was a big man in FA that had a clear advantage over Jefferson as being a good passer, then assist factor. You feed me the ball, I get buckets. I like that. Now find the pieces to cover weaknesses.

[Buzzard]

I say this because if a player is only focused on his own scoring he will have lower turnovers than one that is focused on scoring and passing. So including the negative statistic (turnovers) and none of the positive (assists) seems like it would skew "efficiency" just a tad, no?

In a way you are saying there is a higher chance at a turn over if you give the ball up than if you try and score. Watching Manu against the Heat, I think its the opposite.

Players that try to penetrate and score and/or fight for position to score have the opportunity to turn the ball over at a much higher rate than someone who says with their pass, here Duncan, here Horford, here Bron you take it.

Edited June 25, 2013 by Buzzard

[TheNorthCydeRises]

No I am asking you specifically. Obviously an assist is a possession that leads directly to a score. I say this because if a player is only focused on his own scoring he will have lower turnovers than one that is focused on scoring and passing. So including the negative statistic (turnovers) and none of the positive (assists) seems like it would skew "efficiency" just a tad, no?

I didn't come up with the statistic citing what points per possession consist of, so you can't ask me.

When you're calculating someone's offensive rating, assists aren't calculated in that either.

Jefferson consistently has a pretty high offensive rating and PER. So those of you who try to make out how he's so inefficient, may be the ones who cite the wrong stats trying to diminish him.

But this ain't the NJSI. I didn't come up with "points per possession" myself.

[MaceCase]

I didn't come up with the statistic citing what points per possession consist of, so you can't ask me.

When you're calculating someone's offensive rating, assists aren't calculated in that either.

Jefferson consistently has a pretty high offensive rating and PER. So those of you who try to make out how he's so inefficient, may be the ones who cite the wrong stats trying to diminish him.

But this ain't the NJSI. I didn't come up with "points per possession" myself.

His offensive rating is a tick above league average and boosted by his rebounds and we've established countless times in the past that PER rewards inefficient players as long as they have high usage, so no, those would actually be the worst stats to cite in a debate about offensive efficiency.

[Buzzard]

I wonder why everyone loves Zbo but hates Jefferson.

TS% for:

Randolph:

2013 .506

Career TS .525

Jefferson:

2013 .522

Career TS .531

Randolph was obviously on the better team and has been most of his career, yet Jefferson still has a near equal TS%.

[MaceCase]

I wonder why everyone loves Zbo but hates Jefferson.

TS% for:

Randolph:

2013 .506

Career TS .525

Jefferson:

2013 .522

Career TS .531

Randolph was obviously on the better team and has been most of his career, yet Jefferson still has a near equal TS%.

I really don't know anybody who "loves" ZBo outside of Memphis. He is a prime example of a player who played efficient for just two seasons, became a crowd favorite for his grit, was rewarded with a 66 million over 4 years contract right after the Grizzlies first playoff series win and has made them regret it ever since.......

His one saving grace is that while his offense tanked back to career norms he became a vastly improved team and man defender. Jefferson is neither efficient, a crowd favorite, as good a rebounder or displayed much if any defensive apptitude in his career. I'd imagine that it would be even more unconscionable to reward him with a similarly lucrative contract.

[Buzzard]

I really don't know anybody who "loves" ZBo outside of Memphis. He is a prime example of a player who played efficient for just two seasons, became a crowd favorite for his grit, was rewarded with a 66 million over 4 years contract right after the Grizzlies first playoff series win and has made them regret it ever since.......

His one saving grace is that while his offense tanked back to career norms he became a vastly improved team and man defender. Jefferson is neither efficient, a crowd favorite, as good a rebounder or displayed much if any defensive apptitude in his career. I'd imagine that it would be even more unconscionable to reward him with a similarly lucrative contract.

This is what I am talking about. Without looking at the numbers its assumed by most that Zach is a much better rebounder than Jefferson. That is not true.

Career numbers:

Rebounds Per 36

Jefferson 10.5, Zbo 10.6

TRB %

Jefferson 17.1, ZBO 17.4

Defensive rebounds per 36

Jefferson 7.5, Zbo 7.1

DRB%

Jefferson 24.7, Zbo 23.6

I am done arguing for Jefferson. Its obvious that its a widely split camp between those of us who think he is a positive game changer and those who do not.

Edited June 26, 2013 by Buzzard

[MaceCase]

Why are we using career stats exactly? Jefferson has rebounded below his average over the last 4 years at a steady rate of 16.2% and Randolph has rebounded above his. Are you expecting both to revert to numbers they put up 10 years ago or continue in the trend that they've established currently?

[Buzzard]

Why are we using career stats exactly? Jefferson has rebounded below his average over the last 4 years at a steady rate of 16.2% and Randolph has rebounded above his. Are you expecting both to revert to numbers they put up 10 years ago or continue in the trend that they've established currently?

I expect it has a lot to do with being on the floor with players like Millsap, Favors, Kanter where Zbo only competes with Gasol. Is that logical?

[AHF]

I wonder why everyone loves Zbo but hates Jefferson.

TS% for:

Randolph:

2013 .506

Career TS .525

Jefferson:

2013 .522

Career TS .531

Randolph was obviously on the better team and has been most of his career, yet Jefferson still has a near equal TS%.

I'm not sure where you get everyone loving Randolph. I would actually rather have Jefferson than Randolph at this stage in their career.

[Admin]

I expect it has a lot to do with being on the floor with players like Millsap, Favors, Kanter where Zbo only competes with Gasol. Is that logical?

The teams average .7 rebounds per game difference with Memphis being slightly better so I wouldn't say that their teammates have much to do with it.

I'm not sure where you get everyone loving Randolph. I would actually rather have Jefferson than Randolph at this stage in their career.

Not me, if we aren't bringing Josh back then I'm going to be sorely disappointed not seeing a left hand catapult shot during our games anymore.

[AHF]

It is more the fact that Zach will be 32 next year and Jefferson will be 29.

[MaceCase]

I expect it has a lot to do with being on the floor with players like Millsap, Favors, Kanter where Zbo only competes with Gasol. Is that logical?

Or.....ACL injuries?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3894938

Notice a curious downtick in efficiency and rebounding post surgery.