Dweeb-o supernerds with tape on their glasses like the Hawks' chances

[drzachary]

Dave Berri & the Wins Produced guys love the Hawks so far for this next season.

I think this is very premature, wishful thinking, etc, but it at least gives me hope for a better-than-expected performance:

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On a related note, I recommend that everyone who's into math, sports and other nerdery read Berri's two books ("Wages of Wins," "Stumbling On Wins") and Dean Oliver's "Basketball on Paper." It's very much a 'taking the red pill' experience.

[macdaddy]

He had me at Atlanta....lost me at Toronto.

[HawkItus]

Well they projected us 2nd last year too. They were right for about a week.

[drzachary]

Well they projected us 2nd last year too. They were right for about a week.

Who knows.. maybe if we didn't lose Lou and Zaza...

[coachx]

What PG was this based on us starting ?

Who knows.. maybe if we didn't lose Lou and Zaza...

I'm a firm believer that with those 2 we take Indy to 7 games........and who knows what happens in game 7.

[noble]

Ok to be fair the East looks really week this year. But how is IND and CHI not ahead of us?

[drzachary]

Well they projected us 2nd last year too. They were right for about a week.

They had us at 46 wins last year -- not too far off!

[taz]

I like the Toronto prediction it's balksy but I've been playing around with notion of Toronto making noise. They really did some great addition by subtraction this iffseason

[KB21]

It's early and it will be interesting to see how the minutes are doled out, but with just the players the Hawks have under contract right now (Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Lou Williams, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, John Jenkins) those players alone would account for 38 wins.

Monta Ellis is a wildcard if he is signed. If he continues to be the inefficient scorer he is, he will only get the Hawks about 2 extra wins from himself. However, he has an effect on his teammates that makes them more efficient shooters, which could potentially increase the wins they produce (I'm saying wins they produce, not wins produced, which is Dave Berri's metric). Brandon Jennings and Jeff Teague would account for around 5-6 wins, so we are potentially looking at a 44 win season with just the top 7 guys on the roster.

[Guest]

On a related note, I recommend that everyone who's into math, sports and other nerdery read Berri's two books ("Wages of Wins," "Stumbling On Wins") and Dean Oliver's "Basketball on Paper." It's very much a 'taking the red pill' experience.

The Berri books are great to get your head thinking right. Then once you've got that going, you should legitimately start to question his methods on Wins Produced to figure out what it does tell you and what it does not. Once you've got that down, it definitely opens your mind up to a whole new way of thinking. I wish more posters would take the time to adopt a new way of thinking instead of always boiling down to the "eye test" or "common sense" or whatever else you want to call just having an opinion that is not based on any evidence.

I am torn on the Wages of Wins Blog. Sometimes, they come up with really cool stuff that is interesting. Other times, they really crap the bed. And 3/4ths of the group are assholes who treat Wins Produced as some Holy Grail and hug Berri's nuts. Arturo is the one I really like on there, so it is a good thing he tweeted that.

[drzachary]

Really, if there's any takeaway for the average fan (whoever that is) from reading those books, it's two words: misses matter.

[drzachary]

As for the metric itself, I see it kind of like democracy: the best of a bunch of imperfect options.

[KB21]

The Berri books are great to get your head thinking right. Then once you've got that going, you should legitimately start to question his methods on Wins Produced to figure out what it does tell you and what it does not. Once you've got that down, it definitely opens your mind up to a whole new way of thinking. I wish more posters would take the time to adopt a new way of thinking instead of always boiling down to the "eye test" or "common sense" or whatever else you want to call just having an opinion that is not based on any evidence.

I am torn on the Wages of Wins Blog. Sometimes, they come up with really cool stuff that is interesting. Other times, they really crap the bed. And 3/4ths of the group are assholes who treat Wins Produced as some Holy Grail and hug Berri's nuts. Arturo is the one I really like on there, so it is a good thing he tweeted that.

Have you read Basketball on Paper yet?

I think the Holy Grail of statistics is going to be in the optical tracking data. In the case of a player like Monta Ellis, that is the data that tells you his teammates shot 51% from the floor on his passes vs 44% from the floor on Stephen Curry's passes during their final season together.

[Guest]

Have you read Basketball on Paper yet?

I think the Holy Grail of statistics is going to be in the optical tracking data. In the case of a player like Monta Ellis, that is the data that tells you his teammates shot 51% from the floor on his passes vs 44% from the floor on Stephen Curry's passes during their final season together.

I feel a little ashamed to say I haven't read Dean Oliver's book yet. I know MrH raved about the four factors when he was more active on the board (where the hell is he?) and I am familiar with the four factors, but I just never had the drive to pick that book up. I am assuming it is well worth the read?

I wouldn't go so far as to say there will ever be a Holy Grail for basketball statistics, but I am really excited about the optical tracking data that SportVU has developed. The spatial component of data is recently a general push in all statistics related fields, so the real applications of SportVU on basketball is almost certainly not known yet. You first need to develop the methods, then you can implement it and reap the rewards.

[Admin]

Using advanced stats to show even more how Monta is a player who doesn't make his teammates better...

Chris Paul has a career assist % of 46.3

Deron Williams has a career assist % of 42

Jeff Teague has a career assist % of 29

Stephen Curry has a career assist % of 28.3

Brandon Jennings has a career assist % of 28

Monta Ellis has a career assist % of 21.7%

Assist % - An estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on the floor.

[ATLSmith]

That's a crazy prediction, and....

[buckeye242424]

Brooklyn? Old, Jason Kidd head coach....I can't see why Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, Lopez arent making the playoffs?

[KB21]

I feel a little ashamed to say I haven't read Dean Oliver's book yet. I know MrH raved about the four factors when he was more active on the board (where the hell is he?) and I am familiar with the four factors, but I just never had the drive to pick that book up. I am assuming it is well worth the read?

I wouldn't go so far as to say there will ever be a Holy Grail for basketball statistics, but I am really excited about the optical tracking data that SportVU has developed. The spatial component of data is recently a general push in all statistics related fields, so the real applications of SportVU on basketball is almost certainly not known yet. You first need to develop the methods, then you can implement it and reap the rewards.

I've only read excerpts from it. I haven't had time to sit down and read the book through yet. Having a 3 year old, a 1 year old, and a job as a physician takes up a lot of time.

I do like the four factors though and the fact that the four factors account for about 96% of winning. I also like the fact that Dean Oliver isn't like Dave Berri in the sense that Dean actually sees a place in the game for the high volume, low efficiency guys, and that place may be as a player that can make his teammates more efficient with their shots.

Edited July 8, 2013 by KB21

[Admin]

Brooklyn? Old, Jason Kidd head coach....I can't see why Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, Lopez arent making the playoffs?

They'll be too full from their early bird specials at Luby's (or whatever local diner that mainly caters to old folks in Brooklyn)?

[Admin]

I've only read excerpts from it. I haven't had time to sit down and read the book through yet. Having a 3 year old, a 1 year old, and a job as a physician takes up a lot of time.

I do like the four factors though and the fact that the four factors account for about 96% of winning. I also like the fact that Dean Oliver isn't like Dave Berri in the sense that Dean actually sees a place in the game for the high volume, low efficiency guys, and that place may be as a player that can make his teammates more efficient with their shots.

What do you do in the time that you're making patients wait to see you?