CBSSports: Week 3 NFL picks: Why Dolphins will beat the Falcons and cover

[Admin]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/23699129/week-2-nfl-picks-why-dolphins-will-beat-the-falcons-and-cover

Brent Grimes and Miami have had reason to celebrate. (USATSI)

The Dolphins are 2-0, tied with the Patriots for first place in the AFC East and showing so far this season why Miami actually might have a legit chance to compete with New England for divisional supremacy. Or at least have a shot at the Dolphins first playoff appearance since 2008 (and their second since 2001) while saving general manager Jeff Ireland's job in the process.

Which was kind of the point of the entire offseason spending spree that saw the team add receiver Mike Wallace, linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and cornerback Brent Grimes.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill just outdueled Andrew Luck in Indianapolis on Sunday, and a receiving corps that mostly been barren the past two years suddenly has plenty of depth. Now, the early line for Miami's home game this Sunday vs. the Falcons is up, and the Dolphins are getting 1.5 points. Which makes them a slight underdog against the spread at Sun Life Stadium.

So, why do I like the Dolphins to cover this game? Well, I've got three reasons.

1) The Dolphins receivers are pretty darn good now. How did this happen? Last year, the only playmaker Miami had at receiver was Brian Hartline. Other than him, Miami showcased players like Davone Bess, Rishard Matthews and Marlon Moore (and the departed Reggie Bush at running back). Now, though, you've got Hartline, high-priced free agent Mike Wallace (coming off a nine-catch, 115-yard performance), tight end Charles Clay and Brandon Gibson. Suddenly, it's an explosive-type offense in which Tannehill can excel. That's a big change from last season.

2) The Falcons running game might be worse than last year. Last season, Atlanta's rushing attack, led by Michael Turner's plodding, was ranked 29th in the league. When the Falcons signed Rams refugee Steven Jackson, they were hoping for a running back that could average more than the 3.6 yards per carry that Turner gave them in 2012 (to be fair, Turner did score 10 rushing touchdowns). Well, the team has gotten that, sort of. Jackson has rushed for 77 yards on 14 carries, which averages to 5.5 yards per attempt. But you take away the 50-yard run Jackson made in Week 1, and that average plummets to 1.9 yards. And he had to leave Sunday's game early with a thigh bruise. If Jackson can't play Sunday, that's going to be a huge problem for Atlanta.

3) It's hard to score against the Dolphins. It's not that often when a defense ranks 18th in the league in yards given up but third in points allowed. In Week 1, Miami held the Browns to 10 points. Which is good, but remember, it's only the Browns. On Sunday, though, the Dolphins held what should be a solid offensive attack for the Colts to 20 points and shut them out for the last 26 minutes of the game (and didn't allow a touchdown for the final 31 minutes). Atlanta's passing attack will be a tough test for Miami, but so far, so good.

[jy23]

Sjax is out 2-4 weeks so Jason snellilng will be getting most I the carries or maybe they'll give Vaughn a chance....don't get to high on your defense just yet. Like they said first game was against the browns so doesn't mean much and the colts were also held down against the raiders so although I do think you all are good I don't think you're that good. Our defense is much better than people are giving us credit for. This will be a damn good game tho. We're gonna have 4 starters out for sure maybe 6 so you're catching us at a good time

[Admin]

We had the best red zone defense in the NFL last year and are better this year. We give up a lot of yards between the 20's but TDs are hard to come by. I've heard y'all are without Asante as well, us that true? And I think I heard about a LB? Injury bug is hitting you guys hard.

[Admin]

I guess negativity is a common thread among Atlanta fans as the guys on the Falcons board are acting like the season is over.

http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/topic/3985656-steven-jackson-out-2-4-weeks-wtf

[Admin]

Haha someone made a funny YouTube / WWE style video out of that tackle you told me about

[jy23]

Most of those guys are teenagers, there are some good posters there but most are kind of ridiculous. I get much better football discussion here. Don't pay attention to that site.

[Admin]

Most of those guys are teenagers, there are some good posters there but most are kind of ridiculous. I get much better football discussion here. Don't pay attention to that site.

I've noticed how bad some of them are. There are some knowledgeable fans who aren't ready to throw the season away though. I wish we had more Falcons fans posting here but that probably won't happen until the Hawks become a better team and we become more well known.

[jy23]

Lol yeah that tackle was amazing. And excuse me about your defense...hopefully we can get a couple of big plays out of Julio that keeps us from even having to be in the red zone and if not then I want a healthy dose of Tony in the red zone. Yeah Asante is hurt along with roddy but I'm not sure if they're gonna play or not....that's y I said maybe 6 won't play. But definitely 4 won't, starting de, olb, fb, and rb. Tough times man

[Admin]

Lol yeah that tackle was amazing. And excuse me about your defense...hopefully we can get a couple of big plays out of Julio that keeps us from even having to be in the red zone and if not then I want a healthy dose of Tony in the red zone. Yeah Asante is hurt along with roddy but I'm not sure if they're gonna play or not....that's y I said maybe 6 won't play. But definitely 4 won't, starting de, olb, fb, and rb. Tough times man

Julio on bombs and Tony in the red zone are what really worry me. Even with Roddy hurt we still have to keep him honest as he's a very good receiver. I'm curious how much you'll get to use Tony as you can't have your RT one on one with Cam Wake, gotta chip him with a TE or keep a back in. Indy did a great job last week on him but they doubled him all game long. Cleveland went one on one and he destroyed their RT. but make no mistake you guys will move the ball between the 20's, especially in the first half. It's been raining a lot too and some are saying it could be a very dark and rainy game and that would put the emphasis on the running game and who knows who has the advantage there.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

I am nervous about the S-Jax injury, but as for the article saying we were better with twinkle-toes Turner is ludacrious. S-Jax has better hands and is still 10x's more explosive. Hell, Turner still hasn't had a team pick him up yet. Weatherspoon injury will hurt too as he is our defense's energy, but that LB core is shotty to begin with, even when he is healthy. Really, this game will come down to the secondary. Can the Falcons contain Mike Wallace and can the Dolphins slow down the Roddy, Julio, and Gonzo show. I have a feeling that both QB's will get picked off, but it'll be whoevers comes at the worse time will be the issue. And the lines have to be considered too. Still don't understand how the Falcons keep going forward with subpar protection for Ryan and a dismal pass rush. My prediction for the game is 27-21 Falcons, but I'll say if the Dolphins lead at halftime, I think they will win the game.

[Admin]

I am nervous about the S-Jax injury, but as for the article saying we were better with twinkle-toes Turner is ludacrious. S-Jax has better hands and is still 10x's more explosive. Hell, Turner still hasn't had a team pick him up yet. Weatherspoon injury will hurt too as he is our defense's energy, but that LB core is shotty to begin with, even when he is healthy. Really, this game will come down to the secondary. Can the Falcons contain Mike Wallace and can the Dolphins slow down the Roddy, Julio, and Gonzo show. I have a feeling that both QB's will get picked off, but it'll be whoevers comes at the worse time will be the issue. And the lines have to be considered too. Still don't understand how the Falcons keep going forward with subpar protection for Ryan and a dismal pass rush. My prediction for the game is 27-21 Falcons, but I'll say if the Dolphins lead at halftime, I think they will win the game.

I think the article was just talking about statistically y'all may have been better on the ground, perhaps because of the TD's that Turner scored? Otherwise I definitely agree Jax is a better RB at this point and makes y'all a better team. Pretty fair score prediction, although of course I see it going the other way. If Atlanta gets a big lead then I'd be really worried for Miami as I don't see us as a team that can come back from down multiple scores.

[jy23]

I am nervous about the S-Jax injury, but as for the article saying we were better with twinkle-toes Turner is ludacrious. S-Jax has better hands and is still 10x's more explosive. Hell, Turner still hasn't had a team pick him up yet. Weatherspoon injury will hurt too as he is our defense's energy, but that LB core is shotty to begin with, even when he is healthy. Really, this game will come down to the secondary. Can the Falcons contain Mike Wallace and can the Dolphins slow down the Roddy, Julio, and Gonzo show. I have a feeling that both QB's will get picked off, but it'll be whoevers comes at the worse time will be the issue. And the lines have to be considered too. Still don't understand how the Falcons keep going forward with subpar protection for Ryan and a dismal pass rush. My prediction for the game is 27-21 Falcons, but I'll say if the Dolphins lead at halftime, I think they will win the game.

I'm actually excited to see worrilow get a chance to play...joplo already showed that he deserves to be in the field and now we see if worrilow can keep up that same intensity from preseason. If so our lb core will be pretty damn good come playoff time.

[macdaddy]

I think the only reason Turner's numbers the last couple years were even close to respectable was because he would break a 40 yarder every few games. I have nothing to back that up but i'm guessing if you take out long runs his per carry avg last year was pitiful.

If we beat Miami i'll be very happy and surprised.

[Admin]

Been watching the condensed Falcons-Rams game on NFL Game Rewind and seeing that this could have been a much closer game.

1st half thoughts

[*]The long Julio TD was a terrible read by the DB to go for a pretty average fake by Julio. [*]The INT return by Osi was a bad pass by Bradford for throwing a laser to a covered RB 5 yards away. [*]Then on the Rams possession late in the 2nd quarter (3:15 left) they've got Jared Cook wide open deep (I think it was him) and he falls down before getting to the ball, otherwise it's probably a TD. [*]The Falcons got a lot more pressure on Bradford than it appeared looking at the box score [*]The Falcons corners play off the WR's quite a bit [*]A lot of passes to the backs by Ryan and of course a lot of deep attempts - Ryan has one of the prettiest deep balls in the league [*]Douglas is open a lot out of the slot but doesn't seem as effective on the outside. With Roddy dealing with a bum ankle and Julio being limited by a knee injury he could end up playing a bigger role than normal on Sunday.

2nd half thoughts

[*]Falcons come out playing tight man coverage and Bradford has no time to find his receivers for a quick 3 and out [*]Running game doesn't look overly impressive without Stephen Jackson [*]Struggling to block Rams D-line [*]Julio seems to always be open [*]Gonzo running much shorter routes than I'm used to seeing him run. Not running the seam routes that I've seen in the past and he doesn't get a lot of separation on underneath routes [*]Falcons excellent coverage on special teams units [*]Rams had a lot of success in both halves with cut backs and counter runs with Richardson. Miami has a similar back in Lamar Miller [*]#23 Alford seems to be a liability in coverage as I've noted him giving up a lot of catches, including the Rams 1st TD. The Rams seemed to take advantage of the Falcons when they went to 5 wide on offense [*]RT for the Falcons really struggled with the Rams DE [*]Falcons have really gone conservative in 2nd half with no deep shots yet [*]Noticed a lot of catches against #27 McClain including the 2nd Rams TD (although he was picked) - McClain makes a lot of tackles though [*]Julio is nasty on those WR screens [*]Snelling is a lot more effective at RB than Rodgers [*]Trufant is a very aggressive CB and plays some excellent D. PI call on him keeps Rams drive alive [*]Last Rams TD #27 McClain again just allowed Austin to get into a spot and sit down for an easy TD and safety help from #25 Moore was late getting there - appeared to be a type of zone D on him but very ineffective [*]Mike Smith nice job keeping the Falcons aggresive with 2 passes on the final drive to get the 1st down and end the game. Play action to Snelling was a beautiful play call [*]Kind of wonder what would have happened if this game goes another quarter as the Falcons couldn't stop the Rams towards the end, but the Falcons were starting to move the ball well again after several failed drives in a row.

Overall it was a pretty good game and this Sunday should be another one. The Dolphins don't pass the ball to the back out of the backfield nearly as much as the Rams do and we tend to look for the 10-25 yard pass a lot more. I didn't notice a lot of pressure from the middle of the D-line of the Falcons and that's where Miami is really susceptible to. Although last week we had trouble with the DE's coming in from the backside and getting 2 strip sacks on Tannehill, before he finally figured out how to step up into the pocket and avoid them.

[Admin]

Just read that Tannehill left practice early today due to a shoulder injury that he played through after injuring it against the Colts. Dolphins take Thursdays off so he'll have time to rest it, but this is definitely a concern as he separated this shoulder back in high school. If something happens to him we have a pretty solid backup in Matt Moore, although he's not the QB that Tannehill is.

[jy23]

Bobby Mac has been the worst cb so far this year but he hasn't been bad, trufant and Alford have just played better than I thought they would. Trufant plays more like a lockdown corner and Alford is more of a playmaker, he may give up some plays but hes going to make plenty of his own. Our RT comes out the gate playing ok but gets gassed rather quickly and gives up some pressure. He needs some time to get his conditioning together or just calm down out there and he will be ok. As for our defensive front Babs and peters (our dts) had monster games in game 1 but pretty much disappeared in game 2. Babs was in the saints backfield all day stopping plays before they got started and caused 2 false starts on one drive....I don't know what the heck happened last week but hopefully they show up this week. Pressure was there just didn't get the sacks from the outside. Keep your eye on #59...UDFA rookie but is a beast out there. Joplo Bartu, love that name lol. He's very athletic and does a hell of a job in coverage against TEs and attacks the ball...love this kid. Julio is def a beast on those screens lol, I told you watch out for em. TG wasn't very effective last week but I'm expecting him to get better as the year goes bc he missed most of camp...just needs a minute to get into the flow. Douglas is definitely good out of the slot but is under appreciated by most, I would rather is start drew Davis outside just so we can keep HD inside where he is most effective. Let toddy sit, he's not 100%. Snelling is def better than quizz in the running game and as I said I would rather he get most of the work and just keep quizz in his change of pace back role. But back to Julio...the guy is just a beast plain and simple. I expect another huge game from him this week as he begins to separate himself from the pack and shows just how damn good he is. Matt really does have a beautiful deep ball and it looks even better when it's headed to Julio lol

[WraithSentinel]

Roddy still not healthy and Gonzo looking old as hell out there. HD has stepped up big. Perhaps give Davis a few more staps. Got to get some help for Julio so he can hit them hard when a chance open up. I think the Falcons will be fine with Snell & Quizz.

I am just hoping this offense would kindly show up for the 2nd half of games. Hold the ball longer then 2 mins each drive. Quit going 3 & out on basically every drive in the 2nd half. Let the defense rest some. Tired of seeing 2nd half leads being blown and defense get most of the blame. It is the offense that put them in that position the majority of the time.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

I am nervous about the S-Jax injury, but as for the article saying we were better with twinkle-toes Turner is ludacrious. S-Jax has better hands and is still 10x's more explosive. Hell, Turner still hasn't had a team pick him up yet. Weatherspoon injury will hurt too as he is our defense's energy, but that LB core is shotty to begin with, even when he is healthy. Really, this game will come down to the secondary. Can the Falcons contain Mike Wallace and can the Dolphins slow down the Roddy, Julio, and Gonzo show. I have a feeling that both QB's will get picked off, but it'll be whoevers comes at the worse time will be the issue. And the lines have to be considered too. Still don't understand how the Falcons keep going forward with subpar protection for Ryan and a dismal pass rush. My prediction for the game is 27-21 Falcons, but I'll say if the Dolphins lead at halftime, I think they will win the game.

The Falcons just keep choking...

[Admin]

The Falcons just keep choking...

CBSSports called this one as Miami covered the spread. And you called it with the timely INT. Going away from the running game at key points, the fumbled punt, missed FG, and difficulty in the red zone were all huge factors in the Falcons blowing what should have been a win for y'all. Not sure why but Miami seems to ramp up in the 2nd half of games, done it all 3 games so far this year.