Bill Simmons puts the paddle to the tankers theory

[HawkItus]

NBA

The Trade Deadline Diary

Zach Lowe and Bill Simmons swap emails as the buyers and sellers in the NBA make their moves

BY ZACH LOWE AND BILL SIMMONS ON FEBRUARY 20, 2014

Editor’s note: Every time there’s an NBA trade deadline, Zach Lowe and Bill Simmons like to trade emails about the relative nonaction while secretly hoping that something huge will happen. It never does. Every February, they gamely press on. Here are today’s emails from coast to coast, as they appeared in real time, as our boys killed time until the 3 p.m. ET trade deadline.

Bill Simmons (12:35 PM EST)

Here’s a theory for you: If you’re a GM, what’s the best way to make sure you’ll stay employed for four to five years? The answer: Blow everything up, bottom out, build around young players/cap space/lottery picks, make a bunch of first-round picks, and sell the “illusion of hope” to your fans. What the new wave of young GMs like Sam Hinkie, Ryan McDonough and Rob Hennigan are doing is extremely smart — both from a basketball standpoint and a self-preservation standpoint — because it’s hard for anyone to say “YOU FAILED!” when you’re executing a multiyear plan that can’t be judged until 2016 or 2017 at the earliest.

I’d like to see people in other professions try this. For instance, the guy who runs ABC right now, Paul Lee, is mired in a two-year mega-slump. I think he’s launched 23 shows in the past two years and only two of them have had even mild success. Last week, Kimmel’s 11:35 late-night show outrated ABC’s 10 p.m. prime-time show on three different nights. That’s almost impossible.

OK, so let’s say Paul Lee started thinking like an NBA GM. What would happen? He’d tell everybody, “Look, we fell into the bad habit here of throwing up 10 to 12 shows every year just because we had to have new shows for our schedule. I gotta be honest, I knew most of these shows wouldn’t work. But we needed to put SOMETHING on. So next year, I’m swinging the other way — I have only two new shows that I like, so we’re launching those and that’s it. Instead of wasting your time with the other eight to 10 shows that won’t work, I’m filling those spots with the cheapest reality shows possible, then long-term, I’m using the extra money we saved on failed pilots and lousy pilots to develop better shows with more accomplished showrunners. We’re going to be really good … in 2016!”

You know what would happen if Paul Lee announced that? He’d get fired within five minutes. But in the NBA, everyone accepts that mind-set and even encourages it. Hey, fans — who’s ready to bottom out? Who wants to hinge their hopes to a bunch of maybes and might-bes? Totally bizarre. I find it hard to believe that every Phoenix fan would rather use those four first-rounders over parlaying one or two of them into players who would make this season’s already-fun Suns team even more fun. But what do I know?

[Sothron]

If you read through it, the point he's making is that tanking doesn't work in network television. He says he doesn't understand why PHX fans want them to draft vs. using the picks to acquire talent. Well, who doesn't recognize they should trade those picks for young talent?

His rant isn't anti-tank theory. It's just his nonsensical ramblings.

pretty much my thoughts on it. His analogy of network tv versus a sports GM is not a valid one.

[Admin]

If you read through it, the point he's making is that tanking doesn't work in network television. He says he doesn't understand why PHX fans want them to draft vs. using the picks to acquire talent. Well, who doesn't recognize they should trade those picks for young talent?

His rant isn't anti-tank theory. It's just his nonsensical ramblings.

It's only nonsensical if you're sober.

[HawkItus]

His point is that this is lazy GM'ing to just blow it up. In pretty much every other sport or profession the tanking strategy is not an acceptable answer. Just look at the landscape and see the how these "tanking" teams sale to their fans.

[AHF]

There is no other sport where tanking is as beneficial as it is in the NBA. The NFL is a total team game where you need depth on both sides of the ball and a single player or two isn't going to swing your franchise nearly as much as simply making smart choices and managing your assets. Winners in the NFL can still draft All-Pro players from their draft slots every season. MLB is even more along these lines given the long lead time (top picks are usually years away from contributing) and depth of talent. The only situation I can think of where teams try to lose intentionally other than the NBA is a much smaller amount of tanking that goes on in the NFL, particularly for teams targeting QB.

There is simply no sport where a Tim Duncan, Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, etc. type of player can make such a huge difference on the floor and no sport where the talent is so heavily concentrated at the top of the draft. The uniqueness of the NBA in this regard is the whole reason there is a lottery in the draft in the NBA but not in MLB or the NFL.

[HawkItus]

Lebron Miami

Lebron Miami

Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles

Paul Pierce, Boston

Tony Parker, San Antonio

Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat

Tim Duncan, San Antonio

Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons

Tim Duncan, San Antonio

Shaquille O'Neal, Los Angeles

Shaquille O'Neal, Los Angeles

Shaquille O'Neal, Los Angeles

Tim Duncan, San Antonio

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Hakeem Olajuwon, Houston

Hakeem Olajuwon, Houston

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Looking at this chart of the past Finals MVP's it is a huge crap shoot to tank for that "Super Star" If you are lucky there are 2 guys in every decade of talent that would be that Championship player. Boston and Dallas chased teams that were capable instead of guys and broke the royal heritage. Yes, tanking gets you good players, but getting "that guy" is a crap shoot unless you get the number one pick when he becomes available. It is much more efficient to let some one else draft that guy and go get him. Let him learn on someone else's dime.

[AHF]

It is much more efficient to let some one else draft that guy and go get him. Let him learn on someone else's dime.

That works well if you are the LA Lakers where a FA will go. If you are the Atlanta Hawks, you are going to wait a long, long time before Lebron James, Shaq, etc. agrees to sign with you if you don't land your own Wade first. Trades are the next option and you better have draft assets and studs on rookie contracts if you want to land the next KG, Harden, Allen, Deron, etc.

[Sothron]

Lebron Miami

Lebron Miami

Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles

Paul Pierce, Boston

Tony Parker, San Antonio

Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat

Tim Duncan, San Antonio

Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons

Tim Duncan, San Antonio

Shaquille O'Neal, Los Angeles

Shaquille O'Neal, Los Angeles

Shaquille O'Neal, Los Angeles

Tim Duncan, San Antonio

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Hakeem Olajuwon, Houston

Hakeem Olajuwon, Houston

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Michael Jordan, Chicago

Looking at this chart of the past Finals MVP's it is a huge crap shoot to tank for that "Super Star" If you are lucky there are 2 guys in every decade of talent that would be that Championship player. Boston and Dallas chased teams that were capable instead of guys and broke the royal heritage. Yes, tanking gets you good players, but getting "that guy" is a crap shoot unless you get the number one pick when he becomes available. It is much more efficient to let some one else draft that guy and go get him. Let him learn on someone else's dime.

There's not one superstar player that has ever signed as a free agent to this team. The closest we've come is Deke and Joe.

[HawkItus]

How much is because of the ineptitude we have operated with? If we build a culture that is attractive we can do it. Miami didn't do it until Pat Riley got there. Maybe Danny isn't the guy, but I've seen us get more respect since he and Bud got here than we ever had. Even with Nique.

[capstone21]

How much is because of the ineptitude we have operated with? If we build a culture that is attractive we can do it. Miami didn't do it until Pat Riley got there. Maybe Danny isn't the guy, but I've seen us get more respect since he and Bud got here than we ever had. Even with Nique.

Miami also had Wade who they drafted.

[AHF]

Miami also had Wade who they drafted.

Wade who they drafted along with lottery pick Caron Butler who was the biggest asset in the trade to get Shaq in for their first title.

[HawkItus]

Yeah, but Shaq doesn't agree to go their without Riley. Wade and Butler wouldn't have won a championship.

[Jody23]

You can't build a winning culture without talent. In this era, star players are not coming here to play with mid first rounders, mid-level exception players, etc...

[HawkItus]

You can't build a winning culture without talent. In this era, star players are not coming here to play with mid first rounders, mid-level exception players, etc...

We have two all-stars currently. With the right culture I think a star would definitely come play with Sap and Horford. Especially, after seeing what this system has been capable of.

[Jody23]

We have two all-stars currently. With the right culture I think a star would definitely come play with Sap and Horford. Especially, after seeing what this system has been capable of.

I agree with you on the culture part. But we'll need more than Horf and Sap. Horf and Sap are not perennial All-Star players. They're good blue collar guys, but they're not going to lure the real difference makers like Harden did for Houston last summer.

[MrMeltdown]

The Hawks are not a serious franchise and they keep proving it. Not serious about getting to ECFinals and beyond for first time and not serious about being bad enough to get a potential superstar

[DJlaysitup]

Well Dammit...as usual, when I'm in my pre-game first drink mode...synapses snapping at full speed...wisdom coming at me from all directions...I go down the thread a few posts and AHF says all the stuff I was planning to say and says it better than I would have. Alas.

[Randy]

Tanking only works with both luck (ping pong balls bouncing the right way) and perfect execution (actually picking the right guy.) Hawks tried it ten years ago, and failed, probably on both counts. Had they won the 2 pick instead of 3 we could have had Durrant instead of Horford. Had we the No. 1 pick that year, we might have had Oden. And we all know about the time we got the No. 2 pick and the No. 5 pick.