C-Viv was just on NBA radio

[cam1218]

We just need to be patient with Al. He has had a mix of good games and bad games. I really wasn't expecting much out of him against the Heat after playing the previous night. I'm sure his confidence isn't really high right now, so if he isn't feeling all that great I don't think he is going to do much offensively. With that said, you still expect him to come down with more than 2 rebounds. 

 

The good thing is his up and down play isn't really hurting us too much right now. When we put Pero in at C we are still struggling to get rebounds from our center position. If our record was more along the lines with the Hornets I think this would be a much bigger issue.

 

We don't need Al to put up the 18 PPG he was giving us last year before he got hurt. Give me a healthy and active Al who can get us 15/9, with a few of those 28/12 games mixed in, and I'll be happy.

[macdaddy]

Yeah no difference, except we missed DMC and Korver for long stretches without Al, I believe we were 1-11 without them at one point and Teague played some of the worst ball of his career for 2.5 months... but yeah that was only because of Al.

 

How about the first year when we were as good or better with Zaza replacing Al?  

 

Yeah and the 29 games represented a new coach, two new starters and new system but we went 16-13 out the gate with him.   I mean we can make all the caveats you want, and I realize that we went without any center for a while, but you asked where the proof was that the W-L was better with Al than without.  There it is.   I understand you think he's on a downhill trend but I don't and I think most people don't. 

 

Zaza replacing Al?  I can't remember that far back but last I checked most coaches have favored Al despite being 'better' with Zaza.

[AHF]

It's not a slight against Horford, it's just stating for the sake of the thread that using PPG as an argument for a player being better or worse isn't a good one when usage plays a big role in a PPG change. 

 

The nice thing about his stats last year to the extent you think they are meaningful is that his efficiency actually went up as his usage went up.  That suggests the increase in scoring is sustainable in an offense.  When a guy just shoots more shots and puts up more PPG that is hard because usually a guy's efficiency drops as his usage increases.  Horford's didn't.  That said, I don't think he is aggressive enough on offense to sustain last year's usage rate for an entire season so I see him as a 16 ppg kind of guy when  playing 34 mpg.  His pp36 was sub 14 until 3 years ago and has been 16.8, 20.2 and 16.9 since.  I think that 16-17 pp36 range is very sustainable for him.

[Admin]

Yeah and the 29 games represented a new coach, two new starters and new system but we went 16-13 out the gate with him.   I mean we can make all the caveats you want, and I realize that we went without any center for a while, but you asked where the proof was that the W-L was better with Al than without.  There it is.   I understand you think he's on a downhill trend but I don't and I think most people don't. 

 

Zaza replacing Al?  I can't remember that far back but last I checked most coaches have favored Al despite being 'better' with Zaza.

 

We also had the easiest schedule in the league up to that point. Using last season as an example is a terrible one since we had so much fluctuation in the starting lineup because of injuries. 

 

You can't remember back 3 years to when Zaza replaced Al for the final 55 games and we played Boston in the playoffs where Al came back and we still lost in 6?  We finished 40-26 in the strike shortened season and we were 7-4 (.636) in the games with Al and 33-22 (.600) without Al. Technically we were better with Al, but 11 games vs 55 isn't an equal enough sample to really get a conclusion. All we can say is that Zaza stepped in for Al, put up 8 and 8 and we drove on. That's been the case for Horford's career, we aren't much better with him or much worse without him. 

[Admin]

The nice thing about his stats last year to the extent you think they are meaningful is that his efficiency actually went up as his usage went up.  That suggests the increase in scoring is sustainable in an offense.  When a guy just shoots more shots and puts up more PPG that is hard because usually a guy's efficiency drops as his usage increases.  Horford's didn't.  That said, I don't think he is aggressive enough on offense to sustain last year's usage rate for an entire season so I see him as a 16 ppg kind of guy when  playing 34 mpg.  His pp36 was sub 14 until 3 years ago and has been 16.8, 20.2 and 16.9 since.  I think that 16-17 pp36 range is very sustainable for him.

 

Again the only thing he's got going for him is a terrific mid-range jump shot and higher usage than he used to have. That's effecting so many of the stats that you like to rely on. It's great that he's got that weapon but you take that away from him and he doesn't offer you much of anything over league average in any area. 

[AHF]

Again the only thing he's got going for him is a terrific mid-range jump shot and higher usage than he used to have. That's effecting so many of the stats that you like to rely on. It's great that he's got that weapon but you take that away from him and he doesn't offer you much of anything over league average in any area. 

 

Take away Dirk's jumper and he does nothing better than league average.  It is a very significant part of his game and his value as a floor spacer in Bud's offense.  

 

Look, I am not happy with his defense or rebounding this year.  I just expected him to be subpar in those areas while he was recovering from injury and expect him to get better in both of them as he recovers.  He was never an elite rebounder but was a very good defender before the injury.  Can he fully recover?  I don't know.  I am not willing to rule it out.

[Afro]

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Someone laughed at the idea of Horford scoring 18 PPG. I pointed out that he was scoring 18.6 PPG last season. Obviously usage impacts the amount of points he's going to score. Isn't that generally how it works for everyone? I don't see how this is a slight against Horford.

I didn't laugh at Horford scoring 18 ever. I laughed at him scoring 18 on this team right now as its constructed and taking everything into account.

[Admin]

Take away Dirk's jumper and he does nothing better than league average.  It is a very significant part of his game and his value as a floor spacer in Bud's offense.  

 

Look, I am not happy with his defense or rebounding this year.  I just expected him to be subpar in those areas while he was recovering from injury and expect him to get better in both of them as he recovers.  He was never an elite rebounder but was a very good defender before the injury.  Can he fully recover?  I don't know.  I am not willing to rule it out.

 

What now? Dirk is one of the most gifted scorers in the league. Take away his mid-range jumper and he'll still put up points all over the place. I've never seen anyone shut him down on a consistent basis either. I've seen Horford be shut down.  Dirk is 8 years older, has miles and miles of more experience on his body and he's still putting up 20 / 6 and half a block per game. Outside of blocks he's still equal or better than Horford. 

[Afro]

Take away Dirk's jumper and he does nothing better than league average. It is a very significant part of his game and his value as a floor spacer in Bud's offense.

Look, I am not happy with his defense or rebounding this year. I just expected him to be subpar in those areas while he was recovering from injury and expect him to get better in both of them as he recovers. He was never an elite rebounder but was a very good defender before the injury. Can he fully recover? I don't know. I am not willing to rule it out.

Dirk can also get his own shot a lot better than Horford can.

A lot of Horford offense comes in the rythm of the game. He doesn't create it himself. Which is another wrinkle. For his number to increase dramatically we will have to make a concerted effort to get him shots. I dont see that happening. I just dont see his usage going up other than the guarantee it does with more minutes. That and putbacks which will come with better rebounding.

[macdaddy]

We also had the easiest schedule in the league up to that point. Using last season as an example is a terrible one since we had so much fluctuation in the starting lineup because of injuries. 

 

You can't remember back 3 years to when Zaza replaced Al for the final 55 games and we played Boston in the playoffs where Al came back and we still lost in 6?  We finished 40-26 in the strike shortened season and we were 7-4 (.636) in the games with Al and 33-22 (.600) without Al. Technically we were better with Al, but 11 games vs 55 isn't an equal enough sample to really get a conclusion. All we can say is that Zaza stepped in for Al, put up 8 and 8 and we drove on. That's been the case for Horford's career, we aren't much better with him or much worse without him. 

 

So why rush him back from injury to play in the Boston series?  If we were as good or better with Zaza certainly we'd have been MUCH better with zaza over a gimpy Horf?   So far in our two examples the Hawks were 'technically' better W-L with Al than without.  We won 26 games the year before he got here.  10 more the next, and 10 more the next.   I'm sure you think that was the mostly the presence of MIke Bibby but I think most think Horford made more than a little difference.   I think he still will once he's at full strength.   

[Carmine]

Can't wait for Al to prove all these doubters wrong.

[JETSET]

All these people disagreeing with Dolfan, what do you expect?

He's not saying anything illogical. Al is a 14/9 guy. Thats not far from what he is now.

Are yall saying once he heals he's magically going to start scoring 18ppg?

The only thing I am disagreeing with Dolfan about is his incorrect assumption that Horford's numbers have declined across the board for 3 years in a row.  It doesn't take much effort to see that his statement is false.

 

I'm not sure what to expect of Al by the time March rolls around, but I do hope that the March version of Al is better than the current version of Al in some shape or form.

[JETSET]

We also had the easiest schedule in the league up to that point. Using last season as an example is a terrible one since we had so much fluctuation in the starting lineup because of injuries. 

 

You can't remember back 3 years to when Zaza replaced Al for the final 55 games and we played Boston in the playoffs where Al came back and we still lost in 6?  We finished 40-26 in the strike shortened season and we were 7-4 (.636) in the games with Al and 33-22 (.600) without Al. Technically we were better with Al, but 11 games vs 55 isn't an equal enough sample to really get a conclusion. All we can say is that Zaza stepped in for Al, put up 8 and 8 and we drove on. That's been the case for Horford's career, we aren't much better with him or much worse without him. 

That was nowhere close to the easiest schedule in the league.  A lot more goes in to strength of schedule than just opponents win/loss record.  

[Afro]

Can't wait for Al to prove all these doubters wrong.

I don't see any doubters. I'm not sure saying he will play like he always has is doubting haha.

I just dont see him scoring 18ppg unless he develops post moves our we key on him and take shots away from other guys. Which I don't see happening.

[AHF]

What now? Dirk is one of the most gifted scorers in the league. Take away his mid-range jumper and he'll still put up points all over the place. I've never seen anyone shut him down on a consistent basis either. I've seen Horford be shut down.  Dirk is 8 years older, has miles and miles of more experience on his body and he's still putting up 20 / 6 and half a block per game. Outside of blocks he's still equal or better than Horford. 

 

Dirk is a much better scorer, no question.  It is mostly off of his jumper, though.

 

In comparing the two, Horford has put up better rate adjusted:

rebounds (by a significant margin)

blocks

assist/turnover ratio

turnovers

 

If you are talking about just this season, Horford has been better in rate adjusted:

rebounds

assists

blocks

steals

 

I don't view Horford's play so far as his new baseline, though, anymore than I viewed Lou's performance last season as his new baseline.  Both are going to be subpar because they are recovery from injuries.

[Admin]

So why rush him back from injury to play in the Boston series?  If we were as good or better with Zaza certainly we'd have been MUCH better with zaza over a gimpy Horf?   So far in our two examples the Hawks were 'technically' better W-L with Al than without.  We won 26 games the year before he got here.  10 more the next, and 10 more the next.   I'm sure you think that was the mostly the presence of MIke Bibby but I think most think Horford made more than a little difference.   I think he still will once he's at full strength.   

 

Why rush him back? Because he was better than whomever we had backing up Zaza, which I believe was Jason Collins. And we thought we had a shot that year to make the ECF with Horford. 

 

1,001 is technically a higher number than 1,000. But is it worth bragging about? 

 

I think Horford made a difference vs our horrible teams prior to him getting here, but a lot of the improvement after he was drafted can be attributed to Josh and Marvin growing as players and even JJ. But yes the Bibby trade did take us from a team who really had no idea what we were doing to a playoff team. 

[Admin]

Dirk is a much better scorer, no question.  It is mostly off of his jumper, though.

 

In comparing the two, Horford has put up better rate adjusted:

rebounds (by a significant margin)

blocks

assist/turnover ratio

turnovers

 

If you are talking about just this season, Horford has been better in rate adjusted:

rebounds

assists

blocks

steals

 

I don't view Horford's play so far as his new baseline, though, anymore than I viewed Lou's performance last season as his new baseline.  Both are going to be subpar because they are recovery from injuries.

 

That's fine I really don't care to get into a Dirk vs Al debate as that has no bearing. I was just posting his basic stat line vs that of Al since you brought Dirk up. 

 

And again we find the difference in our beliefs. I believe that Al's baseline is as a 14 / 7-9 / 1 player. I hope that I'm wrong and he's better but considering that's his career average and his major injury history, I'm not even remotely confident in that. 

[Guest]

Well Al is better than Karl Malone so there's that 

Edited December 5, 2014 by JayBirdHawk

[High5]

On the subject of Horford's shooting (featuring Korver):

 

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[Admin]

Not sure which is more impressive, guards shooting that well from 8 feet and out or a C. Either way it's good stuff.