Ben Alamar of ESPN is a Hack (new ESPN power rankings!)

[Guest]

So here we go:

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OoOOOOooooOOOooOOOo, it's a fancy Bayesian procedure! Cool buzzword dude. Care to expand on your priors or would you rather toss around words without context? LET'S EXAMINE!

 

When the post-Josh Smith Detroit Pistons face the East-leading Atlanta Hawks on Monday afternoon, it's undeniably a matchup of two of the league's hottest teams (2:30 ET, ESPN).

A new metric developed by ESPN Analytics suggests the Pistons do not stack up well against the Hawks.

You may be familiar with the Basketball Power Index from college basketball. ESPN's NBA version, which debuts Monday and will appear each week, is similar to the College BPI and the Hollinger Power Rankings but with some sophisticated tweaks so that it accounts for overall strength of schedule, pace, number of days of rest, game location and preseason expectations.

The Hawks have won 12 straight in impressive style. BPI shows Atlanta has the league's ninth best offense which against an average defense, would typically score 1.6 points more than an average team per 100 possessions. Defensively, the Hawks are 12th, and similarly you'd expect their D to hold opponents to 1.5 fewer points per 100 possessions.

Adding the Hawks offensive rating (1.6) and defensive rating (1.5) gives them a total BPI of 3.1, predicting that they would outscore an average team by 3.1 points per 100 possessions.

Given that the Hawks are one of only eight teams to be above average in both offense and defense, are leading the Eastern Conference, and have won 12 in a row, why aren't they higher in the rankings?

NBA Basketball Power Index Rankings

Rank Team Offense Defense Total Last Week

1 Golden State Warriors 4.2 4.7 8.9 1

2 Los Angeles Clippers 6.3 -0.5 5.8 2

3 Portland Trail Blazers 2.9 2.0 4.8 3

4 San Antonio Spurs 0.7 4.1 4.8 6

5 Dallas Mavericks 6.0 -1.4 4.7 4

6 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.3 2.9 4.2 8

7 Memphis Grizzlies 1.1 2.9 4.0 9

8 Toronto Raptors 4.8 -1.0 3.8 5

9 Houston Rockets 1.4 2.3 3.6 7

10 Atlanta Hawks 1.6 1.5 3.1 11

11 Chicago Bulls 1.1 1.7 2.8 10

12 Phoenix Suns 2.9 -1.0 1.9 12

13 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.9 -2.0 1.9 13

14 Washington Wizards -0.7 2.2 1.5 14

15 New Orleans Pelicans 2.2 -1.1 1.2 15

16 Milwaukee Bucks -2.3 1.8 -0.5 16

17 Charlotte Hornets -3.9 2.7 -1.2 17

18 Denver Nuggets -0.6 -1.0 -1.6 18

19 Miami Heat 0.0 -1.8 -1.8 19

20 Brooklyn Nets -1.7 -0.3 -2.1 21

21 Detroit Pistons -1.3 -1.0 -2.3 22

22 Sacramento Kings -0.5 -2.0 -2.5 23

23 Indiana Pacers -5.9 3.3 -2.6 20

24 Boston Celtics -1.6 -2.0 -3.5 24

25 Utah Jazz -1.8 -2.4 -4.2 25

26 Los Angeles Lakers -0.6 -3.6 -4.2 26

27 New York Knickerbockers -1.5 -3.8 -5.3 27

28 Orlando Magic -4.8 -0.9 -5.7 28

29 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.3 -5.8 -8.1 29

30 Philadelphia 76ers -10.9 -0.4 -11.3 30

BPI projects the Hawks have a 58 percent chance to win the East with a total of about 56 wins, but still ranks them behind the Raptors and Bulls in the East, because the Hawks have played an easy schedule so far -- the 20th hardest -- and yet have the 19th-hardest schedule for the remainder of the season. The Hawks are the beneficiaries of being in the East with only one other team (the Chicago Bulls) that is above average in offense and defense which drives their strength of schedule, or lack thereof.

Because the NBA BPI adjusts for competition faced, the Hawks' light schedule means that their 30 wins are not nearly as impressive as the Warriors' or Blazers', whose wins have mostly come in the tougher West. (The Warriors have played the eighth-hardest schedule this season and the Blazers have had the second-hardest.) Additionally, the expectations for the Hawks were low heading into the season -- so while the Hawks may be in the process of proving those expectations wrong, they may also be on a hot streak that will end and they could fade back -- it is, after all, a long NBA season.

But on Monday, the Hawks' next challenge is to win one more, and according to BPI, the Pistons won't be much of a challenge: The Hawks have a 76 percent chance to win.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12188507/atlanta-hawks-middle-pack-bpi-rankings

OK, nothing he has said is remotely Bayesian. Clearly, he is using that as a buzzword to sound important. He could be doing a Bayesian analysis, but without explanation you shouldn't assume he is. Next thing you know, he'll talk about "machine learning" without giving any indication that he understands what is going on with that.

But further, there is one huuuuuge problem where Alamar says:

"Because the NBA BPI adjusts for competition faced, the Hawks' light schedule means that their 30 wins are not nearly as impressive as the Warriors' or Blazers', whose wins have mostly come in the tougher West. (The Warriors have played the eighth-hardest schedule this season and the Blazers have had the second-hardest.)"

This is demonstrably FALSE:

 

2014-15 NBA RPI Rankings

RK TEAM RPI W L PCT SOS PWR PF PA EWL EWP

1 Phoenix .503 24 18 .571 .480 10 4495 4398 25-17 .589

2 Brooklyn .465 17 24 .415 .481 23 3918 4010 17-24 .405

3 Milwaukee .495 21 19 .525 .485 15 3938 3890 22-18 .550

Washington .535 28 13 .683 .485 12 4069 3995 24-17 .575

5 Dallas .537 28 13 .683 .488 9 4448 4202 29-12 .719

6 Portland .550 30 11 .732 .490 3 4232 3975 30-11 .738

7 Chicago .529 27 15 .643 .491 5 4297 4180 26-16 .612

8 Atlanta .570 33 8 .805 .492 1 4236 3961 31-10 .752

Detroit .467 16 25 .390 .492 16 4013 4082 18-23 .430

Toronto .532 26 14 .650 .492 11 4271 4058 28-12 .699

11 Indiana .460 15 27 .357 .495 24 3986 4059 18-24 .426

Golden State .582 32 6 .842 .495 2 4180 3766 32-6 .848

13 Minnesota .418 7 32 .179 .497 29 3858 4216 7-32 .188

14 Denver .487 18 22 .450 .500 22 4092 4152 18-22 .440

Orlando .460 15 29 .341 .500 28 4178 4432 12-32 .274

16 Houston .546 28 13 .683 .501 6 4200 4034 27-14 .660

Boston .461 13 25 .342 .501 27 3887 3960 16-22 .424

18 Charlotte .474 16 25 .390 .502 20 3917 4028 16-25 .387

19 San Antonio .532 26 16 .619 .503 7 4276 4098 28-14 .669

20 Philadelphia .429 8 32 .200 .505 26 3616 4102 4-36 .111

21 Memphis .561 29 11 .725 .506 4 4077 3915 26-14 .661

22 Cleveland .508 21 20 .512 .507 17 4127 4127 21-21 .500

Miami .493 18 22 .450 .507 19 3741 3888 14-26 .346

Sacramento .480 16 24 .400 .507 21 4077 4156 17-23 .421

LA Clippers .545 27 14 .659 .507 8 4381 4127 30-11 .728

26 Oklahoma City .506 20 20 .500 .508 13 4009 3951 22-18 .560

27 New York .415 5 36 .122 .513 30 3794 4169 7-34 .174

28 Utah .471 14 27 .341 .515 18 3915 4055 15-26 .359

29 New Orleans .516 20 20 .500 .521 14 4028 4019 20-20 .509

30 LA Lakers .474 12 29 .293 .534 25 4116 4367 11-30 .274

http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS/order/false

Might be hard to read for formatting issues, but see that? Portland has a strength of schedule of .490 right now. That ranks 6th worst. ATL has .492 which is tied for 8th worst. But Ben Alamar says that Portland has the 2nd hardest schedule. This is directly from ESPN.

Get the f*** out dude. You're a f***ing hack. You stole money from OKC and are stealing money from ESPN. What a f***ing joke. And he won't even explain his methodology. He is a prototypical example of someone I would say gives analytics a bad name. He has no f***ing idea what is going on. And he is making demonstrably bad mistakes in either calculation, analysis, or both. Probably both.

Edit: added in link to original Alamar article.

Edited January 19, 2015 by hawksfanatic

[MCVicious]

The dude also needs to work on his website game. That angelfire circa 95' website is not going to get him any new clients.

 

http://www.alamarsportsanalytics.com/default.html

[WillyMo]

"NBA Basketball Power Index Rankings"

 

 

How are the Clippers second? Lol what. These index power rankings from ESPN are always garb.

[AHF]

I saw that article over lunch.  Wouldn't have used it to wipe up anything I spilled if it was in print.  Crazy trash.  Atlanta allows the least points in the league but their defense can't even make the top 10?  Other ESPN analysts say they are top 5 in both offense and defense but they aren't in either category here?  With no explanation?  GTFO.

[Guest]

The dude also needs to work on his website game. That angelfire circa 95' website is not going to get him any new clients.

 

http://www.alamarsportsanalytics.com/default.html

Hahaha, I didn't want to go too crazy on the Alamar hate but yes. This just typifies that he is a hack and is more interested in selling snake oil than doing *actual* work.

He is in his position right now because Dean Oliver left ESPN to work with the Kings. Why was Alamar selected? I have no f***ing clue. He is the type of person who would write a book on "The 10 Habits of Highly Effective Individuals"!

Oh wait...http://www.amazon.com/Sports-Analytics-Coaches-Managers-Decision-ebook/dp/B00APDGFOC/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1421702364&sr=1-1<- that is basically a self-help book applied to sports. Or in other words: bullshit!

[Plainview1981]

That's how it is.... When ESPN gives credit to this team it's basically backhanded. They consistantly find articles and stats that try to influence public opinion that someone else is still better no matter what the Hawks do.

[Guest]

I saw that article over lunch.  Wouldn't have used it to wipe up anything I spilled if it was in print.  Crazy trash.  Atlanta allows the least points in the league but their defense can't even make the top 10?  Other ESPN analysts say they are top 5 in both offense and defense but they aren't in either category here?  With no explanation?  GTFO.

Exactly.

I am pretty sure this is a mixture of user error and misapplication of Bayesian statistical analysis. It is clearly user error from him claiming that the Blazers have the 2nd toughest schedule...all the metrics for SOS have them in the bottom 3rd! EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.

The misapplication comes because I don't think he is updating his priors correctly. Notice that OKC is in the top 10? Yeah.......I don't think you know how this works Ben.

[coachx]

Bla, bla, bla.

 

Its comes down to matchups, execution, and some lucky bounces.

Edited January 19, 2015 by coachx

[ATLHawks3]

This guy is a fool. 

[Guest]

Hack.

[Guest]

Hi Ben you got a response?

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Uhhhh, what? That sounds preposterous.

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f***ing idiot.

[Gray Mule]

Brilliant writing!  Notice that the reason that Atlanta is winning is because

of their weak schedule.  We know.  We've been hearing this for some time.

 

We're rated #10, only 2 behind #8 Toronto Raptors!  Ain't that great!

[Peoriabird]

This dude sounds like some of our posters!  Who does he think he is? Hotlanta?

Edited January 19, 2015 by Peoriabird

[Randy]

Power rankings and that kind of computer generated nonsense went out of style with the BCS.  We have standings and records.  We don't need no power rankings.  I think their computer just said "Oh, the Hawks? All they do is win games."  

 

Or put another way, I'd never trade a single win for a first place in the power rankings.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Randy

[Plainview1981]

This dude sounds like some of our posters!  Who does he think he is? Hotlanta?

 

It's only took the team 15 years to prove me wrong about most anything.

 

It's funny how homers can't accept an point of view that's not..... Well, homerish. 

Edited January 20, 2015 by Hotlanta1981

[AHF]

Hi Ben you got a response?

Uhhhh, what? That sounds preposterous.

f***ing idiot.

 

No, no.  It isn't preposterous, @hawksfanatic.  It is simply totally out of line with the rest of the way people look at basketball without any definition behind it other than oblique allusion.

 

Moreover, how does that work?  Atlanta has played more road games than the top 3 teams in the East and the top 7 teams in the West.  They have played 8 back-to-back games so far (the same or more than GS and Port to use two I just grabbed for context).  

 

Total rest days are simply a matter of total games played (season starts on day 1 and then every day without a game is a day of rest).  Since the Hawks have played as many or more games than the top 8 teams in either division, we have to be on the low end of rest.

 

So using days of rest, home/away, and distance traveled and knowing that the Hawks have the:

 

*  Fewest rest days of all playoff bound teams

and

*  Most road games of all playoff bound teams (with the exception of Milwaukee)

 

= Easy schedule.  What?!?

 

It is time to show your work or get a failing grade, Mr. Alamar.

Edited January 20, 2015 by AHF

[Guest]

"Bane-sian"? What's Batman got to do with anything?

[Peoriabird]

It's only took the team 15 years to prove me wrong about most anything.

 

It's funny how homers can't accept an point of view that's not..... Well, homerish. 

Now that's the Hotlanta I know!

[Plainview1981]

Any formula that says the Clippers are the 2nd best team in the league is WRONG.

Edited January 20, 2015 by Hotlanta1981

[Vol4ever]

If I was ESPN this idiot would be given his pink slip. What a dork.