Squawk... Do we know what's best for the Hawks?

[Diesel]

This is a serious question.   Do we know  what's best for the Hawks?  I ask because I see many opinions on what we should do and they all vary.

Some want to trade Teague.  Some want to let Horf Walk.  Some want to trade Sap.  Some want to trade Korver.  

Just last year, these 4 were allstars and we were a 60 win team.

Some people want to turn the team over to Dennis.  Some people want to trade Dennis for a lottery pick.  Some people want to move up in the draft.   Some people want to trade out of the draft.   Some people want a Philly Big.  Some people want a superstar. 

As I read the Boards here's my conclusion:

1.  We can't come to one agreement about what this team should do.

2.  We all have our preferences.

3.  We haven't taken any time to consider what the current FO has done that is right, nor have we tried to discern the direction that they are going.

 

All that translates into 2 points:

1.  We believe that our success in the past was a fluke.

2.  We don't trust Budcox to get it right.

 

I challenge the whole BOARD..  IF I'm wrong about these 2 points... Step up and let me know if you think that 1... Our past was not a fluke.  2.  Budcox will get it right.

It's funny.  Nobody here trust Budcox enough to say that they do but nobody is calling for a new GM and a new HC.

Funny.

 

 

[hylndr11]

I dont think this has shit to do with Budcox, there not out on the floor, weve done as best we can given players available,  as usual we dont have the talent these other teams do. That are getting to the finals, have agreat team, just lack the players to hang with these teams with 2 top 15 players on there squad.  There going to have to figure out a way to get those players, been like this in nba for long time - 25 or so other nba teams have the same problem.  The players control the league, I think we all agreed on this in one of these other posts, it also begs the questions since we agree on the lack of parity in this league and why - why are we still here debating all of this, I guess lots of us here are gluttons for punishment :)

[macdaddy]

I guess by our past success you mean last year's 60 win season?   It wasn't a fluke.   We were a damn good team but not nearly as good as GS and Cavs.   This year we took a step backwards which leads us to #2.   We went backwards because the front office didn't continue to improve the team.   Did GS and Cavs sit on their hands after last year?  No, they went out and got more.  

It's new ownership now.   I trust Bud as a coach.   I'll give the GM situation one more season but my guess is we need a better GM.

[Bankingitbig]

We definitely do not need a new coach. Look at what Bud has done with our roster compared to other teams. He rejuvenated Korver, got Demarre and now Baze paid, made Millsap an all-star and has developed Dennis a lot from where he was his first year. I think he has overachieved with our roster.

Now Budcox has really only been around for 1 year now.. And this is what they have done:

• Traded 15th pick for Hardaway Jr. (time will tell on this and I still trust Bud to develop THJ, who is probably our most athletic player on the roster)
• Signed Kris Humphries (I think we all agree this was a positive)
• Traded Mack/Holiday for Hinrich (basically just financial flexibility)
• Received Splitter for practically nothing (this was regarded as a good move at the time to help solve our rebounding issues)
• Re-signed Millsap (definitely a positive)
• Traded Payne for future 1st round (a positive)

People want to criticize them for not making a deal at the trade deadline, but NO ONE knows what was being offered. All-in-all, I think people have huge biases and overestimate the value of Hawks' players in trades as compared to other teams' players, and also overvalue an unproven draftee. We all also have no clue what offers are seriously being thrown around or not.

[Bankingitbig]

Also, I don't think you can compare the Hawks FO moves to that of the Cavs, Warriors and Spurs because players are willing to take massive paycuts to play with those teams. No one is willing to do that for the Hawks YET, but I definitely believe Bud is turning the tide in terms of making ATL a more attractive option for FAs, especially the way he has gotten JYD, Baze and Millsap paid.

[Diesel]

18 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

I dont think this has shit to do with Budcox, there not out on the floor, weve done as best we can given players available,  as usual we dont have the talent these other teams do. That are getting to the finals, have agreat team, just lack the players to hang with these teams with 2 top 15 players on there squad.  There going to have to figure out a way to get those players, been like this in nba for long time - 25 or so other nba teams have the same problem.  The players control the league, I think we all agreed on this in one of these other posts, it also begs the questions since we agree on the lack of parity in this league and why - why are we still here debating all of this, I guess lots of us here are gluttons for punishment :)

Budcox is in control of what goes out onto the floor and who plays.  You can't separate that.

[HawkItus]

I trust Budcox, but most of all I'm a realest.  See GM's post "It is never enough"

[Diesel]

5 minutes ago, Bankingitbig said:

We definitely do not need a new coach. Look at what Bud has done with our roster compared to other teams. He rejuvenated Korver, got Demarre and now Baze paid, made Millsap an all-star and has developed Dennis a lot from where he was his first year. I think he has overachieved with our roster.

Now Budcox has really only been around for 1 year now.. And this is what they have done:

• Traded 15th pick for Hardaway Jr. (time will tell on this and I still trust Bud to develop THJ, who is probably our most athletic player on the roster)
• Signed Kris Humphries (I think we all agree this was a positive)
• Traded Mack/Holiday for Hinrich (basically just financial flexibility)
• Received Splitter for practically nothing (this was regarded as a good move at the time to help solve our rebounding issues)
• Re-signed Millsap (definitely a positive)
• Traded Payne for future 1st round (a positive)

People want to criticize them for not making a deal at the trade deadline, but NO ONE knows what was being offered. All-in-all, I think people have huge biases and overestimate the value of Hawks' players in trades as compared to other teams' players, and also overvalue an unproven draftee. We all also have no clue what offers are seriously being thrown around or not.

I agree with you that Budcox has made a lot of smart moves.   They have also made some stay the course moves.  My point was not to criticize Budcox or even to call for their jobs.  My point is that the Squawk here have come up with all these alternate universe moves... which suggest to me that we don't like the direction that Budcox is going.  Moreover, from all the variedness of the suggestions, I don't think that we can even come together and agree on 1 thing that the Hawks should do.   For instance:

 

1.  Should we move up into the draft?

2.  Should we stay pat and take Best Available Player?

3.  Should we consider all of our players expendable if we get a shot at a Superstar?  Who?

4.  Should we keep all of our players and search for 1 or 2 missing pieces?

5.  Should we stick with the Budball?

6.  Should we look to add more isoball?

 

This is a range of questions that I believe would get a variety of answers from the Board which claims to have the most knowledgable fanbase for the Atlanta Hawks.

Your second point... We overvalue our players?  I disagree here. I think most Hawks fans undervalue our players.   I have been here long enough to know that the SQUAWK vilifies one player and they will continue to vilify him until he's gone. 

This year it's Teague or Horf.  Horf because he's on the verge of getting a max Joe Johnson like Deal.   Teague because we have Dennis.  The truth is that the Dennis/Teague combination is one of the best 1-2s in the NBA.  It's better than Tony Parker/Patty Mills.   It's like a Curry/Livingston deal where either guy can be on.  However, Hawks fans don't realize the value.

Horf?  We don't know the plans that Bud has for Horf.  We just don't want to see him paid like he were Karl Malone.

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, HawkItus said:

I trust Budcox, but most of all I'm a realest.  See GM's post "It is never enough"

Aren't those two statement in conflict.  Are you trying to say that Budcox is working in an imaginary world?  When the Pistons beat Shaq and the Lakers, that was not supposed to happen.  Realist said that Detroit couldn't do it because they didn't have a star player and the Lakers have 2.   Well, sometimes, realism shows up in ways that you didn't expect.

 

[Bankingitbig]

I agree that people will vilify a player based on performance, but I think when it comes to trades, people think we can turn Teague (an above-average PG at a saturated position with a  1year deal) for a young, somewhat proven player at a position in higher demand, which just isn't going to happen.

I think you will always find conflicting viewpoints or trajectories from the fan base, but let's be honest.. A lot of the fan base doesn't know the true value of a player (because they aren't having discussions with other GMs), nor do they even fully understand contracts/salary cap. The most I hear about is how the Hawks need to get a superstar, as if superstars just grow on trees and you can easily pick one out. What superstar would be even available? The only one I can think of is Melo (and he even has a no trade clause). Would I want to give up Millsap and probably a lot of other pieces for him? Probably not.

Obviously we should stick with Budball because no one on our team is that good at Iso. I don't know about moving up in the trade honestly because who knows what other teams are asking for in order to move up (but I don't think this is really the draft to move up in).

I could see us doing a SnT with Horford, but have no idea who we would get. But more realistically, I could see us resigning Horford and letting Baze walk. Going hard after Batum and drafting someone like Prince (who Bud has shown time and time again that he can develop). I would be very happy with a lineup of Teague/Korver(THJ)/Batum/Millsap/Horford with Dennis on the 2nd unit. Maybe we could also make a move with Splitter to add another piece, who knows.. Do I think that team beats a healthy Cavs? No probably not, but I see us getting at least two games and who knows what could happen with injuries. Do I think any moves we make this offseason get us a championship? No probably not (unfortunately) and I think people need to realize that and be patient, which is hard to do.

 

[macdaddy]

the Dennis/Teague deal comes down to  you don't have starters coming off the bench at one position when you have no quality starters at 2 other positions.     If we can address our wing issue and get a decent backup center while still keeping Dennis and Teague then I'm all for it.   Of course the other problem is team chemistry and both guys are starting to tire of the situation.  

[AHF]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

I guess by our past success you mean last year's 60 win season?   It wasn't a fluke.   We were a damn good team but not nearly as good as GS and Cavs.   This year we took a step backwards which leads us to #2.   We went backwards because the front office didn't continue to improve the team.   Did GS and Cavs sit on their hands after last year?  No, they went out and got more.  

It's new ownership now.   I trust Bud as a coach.   I'll give the GM situation one more season but my guess is we need a better GM.

I think it was a bit of a fluke or rather that January 2015 was a bit of a fluke.  Let's look at the numbers:

January 2015

17-0  100% Win %

Regular Season (Excluding Jan 2015)

2014-15 43-22 66.5% Win%

2015-16 48-34  58.5% Win%

Post-Season Other than Cleveland

2015 66.7% Win %

2016 66.7% Win %

Post-Season Vs Cleveland

2015  0% Win %

2016 0% Win %

 

So everything looks pretty similar except that one month of red hot glory.  That was not only the month to trump all other months but set a record for the entire history of the NBA.  That kind of screams outlier.

 

---------------

On trusting Budcox, I trust them to put together another solid team that wins in that similar range 62% +/- 5% range and to try to pull triggers on moves that would be transformative (they will pitch KD, etc.).  It isn't a matter of trust but I see them having a limited number of levers they can pull.  While their use of draft assets has not been encouraging for me, the track record is too small to draw a conclusion.  

[hylndr11]

Id love Batum but him and Whiteside are gettting max deals, teams already talking about offering max deals to those guys - Id call it a miracle if we can get a legit wing starter here and keep Horford at this point 

[Guest]

The only thing I know is we need  upgrades at certain positions and on the bench.

The Ferry situation set us back not because he's a great GM but because it left us in limbo at the 2015 trade deadline without ownership and GM direction. 

By the time new ownership was announced Jun 25, 2015 the draft was the same day. Bud was made PofBBall Ops and Wes named GM July 1st the start of FAcy. Both new to the jobs and position. I think we operated from a disadvantage and inexperience  stand point, handcuffed by old ownership leaving and new ownership arriving.

Just like our players need work to improve, so does our coach and GM.

[Bankingitbig]

1 hour ago, hylndr11 said:

Id love Batum but him and Whiteside are gettting max deals, teams already talking about offering max deals to those guys - Id call it a miracle if we can get a legit wing starter here and keep Horford at this point 

Yea it looks like Charlotte will be keeping Batum. Everything I have read seems to show that Batum wants to stay in Charlotte and Charlotte has him as their #1 priority.

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I think it was a bit of a fluke or rather that January 2015 was a bit of a fluke.  Let's look at the numbers:

January 2015

17-0  100% Win %

Regular Season (Excluding Jan 2015)

2014-15 43-22 66.5% Win%

2015-16 48-34  58.5% Win%

Post-Season Other than Cleveland

2015 66.7% Win %

2016 66.7% Win %

Post-Season Vs Cleveland

2015  0% Win %

2016 0% Win %

 

So everything looks pretty similar except that one month of red hot glory.  That was not only the month to trump all other months but set a record for the entire history of the NBA.  That kind of screams outlier.

 

---------------

On trusting Budcox, I trust them to put together another solid team that wins in that similar range 62% +/- 5% range and to try to pull triggers on moves that would be transformative (they will pitch KD, etc.).  It isn't a matter of trust but I see them having a limited number of levers they can pull.  While their use of draft assets has not been encouraging for me, the track record is too small to draw a conclusion.  

Except looking at monthly win totals is just an arbitrary, though convenient, dividing line.   Basically you're saying "Well they only had a good record because they won all those games".      

If you look at Cleveland this year they had a good January and a good and December.   All the other months the win % was in the 50s and 60s.   So was their #1 seed a fluke?     Would we still consider the Hawks season a fluke if we had gone 13-4 in January and won the east by 3 games instead of 7?  

[AHF]

4 hours ago, macdaddy said:

Except looking at monthly win totals is just an arbitrary, though convenient, dividing line.   Basically you're saying "Well they only had a good record because they won all those games".      

If you look at Cleveland this year they had a good January and a good and December.   All the other months the win % was in the 50s and 60s.   So was their #1 seed a fluke?     Would we still consider the Hawks season a fluke if we had gone 13-4 in January and won the east by 3 games instead of 7?  

I don't have to divide it by monthly totals.  I am saying the team got insanely hot and that outlier in production made the team look better than it was when the insane hot streak was blended with the rest of the seasonal data.  We've all had some hot streaks in sports before where you are hitting everything you throw up, etc.  We've seen that with individual players where someone gets super hot for a month or so and the rest of their season and/or career says they are not as good as the the data set including that outlier.  

I trust in the playoff performance I've seen from the Hawks the last two years  (not a single impressive series, not a stinker except against Cleveland) and the larger set of regular season performance to conclude we aren't that runaway #1 seed team.  We are more of a middle of the pack playoff team where we could lose in the first round or we could go to the ECF (and be completely non-competitive versus Cleveland) depending on matchups.

So, yeah, I don't think we were a more talented team than the Spurs and Cavs in 2014-15 despite us riding an insane hot streak to a better record.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I've always known what was best for the Hawks.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I've always known what was best for the Hawks.

[AHF]

23 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I've always known what was best for the Hawks.

 

 

12 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said: