Moose: Nothing to write home about, but also nothing to sneeze at

[sturt]

I love me some mixed cliche's.

Studying his numbers three, nay four, things stick out to me comparing 2015-16 with 2014-15.

1. 3pt % tumbled by 10 points, 41% to 31%, and that he took 1 more 3 pt. shot per game, that decrease was all the more consequential and noticeable.

2. ORB% tumbled by almost 5 points, 12.2 to 7.5, though to be fair, when playoff time came around, he almost completely recovered that slippage, and overall, he rivaled Paul Milsap.

3. How many more games did Moose play last season? 20.... okay, and how many more minutes, then, did he get? 63 more minutes. Total.

Would make me want to study his game films more closely to see if his most productive minutes are occurring after he's been in the game for 10 minutes or more. Viewing the game logs, it appears to me it's fair to conclude his best offensive games came in those he had double-digit time, and his worst defensive games occurred when he didn't, but all of that is somewhat natural since, if he's doing well, you leave him in, and if he's not, you take him out. So that's why I'd want to see more precisely how he performs first 10 min vs. minutes thereafter from game to game.

All in all, I disagree with those advocating he's not worth keeping. I'll change my tune this time next year if he doesn't at minimum return to a 2014-15 kind of production. But I think it's completely plausible that, with a 35-38%-ish 3 pt stat, and a TRB% in the 14% range, he wlll merit another contract next off-season.

[Trout7]

Why worry about all the statistical analysis hoping someone can produce  , when you have Humphries that you know will produce.

[QuantumHawkz]

Moose is good for what he is being paid. I really like Moose's game. He can hit the mid range and has the range to knock down a few threes. His stat's decreasing is no surprise, he didn't see alot of action this past season. His hustle and shot altering ability is very underrated. He's a keeper,unless you find someone better for that price.  

[sturt]

37 minutes ago, Trout7 said:

Why worry about all the statistical analysis hoping someone can produce  , when you have Humphries that you know will produce.

I like Hump, but I don't know what he's going to get in this market.

What's more, if you always acquire players on the basis of what they already did without regard for their age, your roster gets old as you haven't accounted well for the fact that there becomes a point of diminishing returns. Has to be some balance there that allows your roster to benefit from players developing their upsides.

[DarnShadyRefs]

Maybe our Hawks U program isn't good at developing bigs. 

[DJlaysitup]

You still gotta have 5 guys on the court in garbage time...so we may as well keep Moose...the fans love yelling "Mooooooose" when he gets in the game.

[Thomas]

I'm fairly surprised his PER broke 13 because the eye test is the stat I have been going by and he makes us worse no matter who is on the court. Our PF situation is so up in the air in reference to the full forty eight minutes of a game played with everything going on right now I think his roster spot is more important than he is. Costello may even end up being a more productive option for us.

[sturt]

Honestly, add a little more attitude, and I see some resemblances to a young Zaza.... Zaza could shoot a jumper, could rebound, could make the occasional assist, wasn't a great leaper... but early-on in his Hawks career, he did get a shot at starting, and he carved out a place for himself. Moose, of course, is a better shooter overall with better range, though he gives away something to a young Zaza on the boards. Here's the stats on each after 3 seasons....

Moose, if you're reading this.... obviously, get your 3 pt shot back to the other side of 35%.... but also, see if you can't gain that Zaza-like subtle snarl over the off-season. :D

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, DJlaysitup said:

You still gotta have 5 guys on the court in garbage time...so we may as well keep Moose...the fans love yelling "Mooooooose" when he gets in the game.

Yep. For the $1 mil that's not even fully guaranteed Moose is our 'in case of emergency break glass' guy who can play the 4 or 5.

[Thomas]

Zaza is a center who has played at over 270 pounds for his career and has always been a banger. Moose is a power forward that can't grab a rebound at either spot and is the opposite of a banger. A banger named Humph took away whatever minutes Moose would have had against the mighty Cavs. Stats are great for research but when Moose has been on the floor the Hawks are worse.

[sturt]

Like I said... "Moose, of course, is a better shooter overall with better range, though he gives away something to a young Zaza on the boards."

I don't see either one as a pure C or PF. They are both large enough to play 5, but can move well enough to log minutes at 4.

[Thomas]

If Moose stays on the roster I hope I need to eat crow later in this upcoming season because of his positive play on the court. Thats as positive as I can get on him. 

[RandomFan]

7 hours ago, Trout7 said:

Why worry about all the statistical analysis hoping someone can produce  , when you have Humphries that you know will produce.

Because Moose is under contract for arond $1M, while Humphries is rumored to be getting future offers at something around $10M - and the salary cap exists.

5 hours ago, sturt said:

Like I said... "Moose, of course, is a better shooter overall with better range, though he gives away something to a young Zaza on the boards."

I don't see either one as a pure C or PF. They are both large enough to play 5, but can move well enough to log minutes at 4.

Maaan...Zaza is only a 5, and has always only been a 5. He ain't playing any 4. Zaza and Moose are completely different players, in that Zaza actually doesn't suck on defense. I like what Moose gives us on offense, but the reason he's a borderline NBA player is becuase he's a pretty sizeable liability on defense. The exact opposite of Zaza.

[sturt]

Allow me to explain.... Zaza is a better C than he is PF, and not surprisingly, the teams for which he's played have ordinarily needed him to play C. But he has played PF on a few occasions per 82games. I've never been persuaded that he's actually 270, myself, but that's just my own opinion. If so, he's about the most svelt 270 I've ever seen in my life, and he's no great athlete, but he also doesn't lumber around like someone carrying around that many pounds.

Defense? Again, unpopular as it might be to point out, Moose's D stats through 3 seasons and 1200 minutes mostly exceed Zaza's through 3 seasons and 4500 minutes played. A lot of what Zaza does well defensively is what also makes him a good rebounder.... he has an exceptional BBIQ for positioning, whether that's come through natural instinct or whether it's been learned, but probably both.

If you back it up and look at minutes played instead of seasons played, Zaza surpassed Moose's 1200 in just his second season.

Noticeably, Moose's DWS exceeds what Zaza's was at approximately the same milepost. What's always always always been incredible about Zaza is his DRB%... which again attests to what I said above about positioning.

Here's where Moose could seriously help himself.... get to the line more. And that would run parallel with the desire for him to gain a bit more of an attitude. Get in there, mix it up... might not get to Zaza's stellar 8 attempts per 100 possessions, but see if you can't get something closer to 4 or 5 at least.