Dennis, 4 shots, 5 assists at the half

[thecampster]

This is what we need from Dennis.  only 4 shots but 5 assists at the half.  Ersan and Dwight leading the team with 8 shot attempts each. Hawks with an 11 point lead.  I am not anti-Dennis. I am just patiently waiting for more of this and less 27 points on 27 shots with 8 turnovers Dennis.

 

Mathematically speaking, let me break this down.

In the game last night, the Hawks took 85 shots with 19 turnovers. That equates to 104 possessions. The scored 95 points. Dennis is completely responsible for only 27 of those points on 35 of those possessions. That's 33% of the possessions going through Dennis. That is very easy to stop .

Tonight at the half, the Hawks have 37 shots and 9 turnovers, 46 possessions.  Dennis has 4 shots and 5 turnovers. Todays ratio so far is 9/46, less than 20% of the possessions. This is so much harder to defend and leads to way less fast breaks going the other way.  More of this, less of soloman.

[Lurker]

This is one of the few teams in which Dwight Howard actually has an advantage.

[Lurker]

Also: Dennis is really really bad at trying to be pass first. This is a full game of it and he has 8 turnovers. And you're OK with it? It's simply not his game.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Lurker

[rd79]

I don't know what's going on with Dennis lately but it seems he misses Sap in two ways

A) A guy the opponent respects, in recent games (before yesterday) Dennis was the only offensive weapon (especially when THJ was struggling) and unless you are LeBron or Westbrook it's hard to kill a defense when defenders have to care about one player only

B) As a pick and roll partner

But nevertheless Dennis caused lots of totally avoidable turnovers in last games. Surprisingly his passes to Dwight looked better yesterday, but threw some ill-advised passes in the backcourt... And that stepping out of bounds without an opponent even near him... Does he already pay the price for his first starting + high usage season which his body wasn't used to before? Hope he has some gas left in the tank for the playoffs...

Edited March 30, 2017 by rd79

[Thomas]

4 hours ago, rd79 said:

Does he already pay the price for his first starting + high usage season which his body wasn't used to before? Hope he has some gas left in the tank for the playoffs...

In 74 games Dennis has played right at 2300 minutes so like you said a pretty massive change for him and its at the NBA starting competition level. Going to need a good second wind for the playoffs and hopefully clean up the sloppiness. 

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3032979/dennis-Schröder

[thecampster]

20 hours ago, Lurker said:

Also: Dennis is really really bad at trying to be pass first. This is a full game of it and he has 8 turnovers. And you're OK with it? It's simply not his game.

In the second half, he took 3 times as many shots as in the first.  The Hawks were up 11 at the break but won by 7.  So first half, Dennis 4 shots, Ersan and Dwight 16 total. Hawks +11.  Second half, Dennis takes 12 shots, Dwight and Ersan take 11 total, Hawks -4.  Yes, I've watched it all year long and there is a correlation.  When his shot is falling it seems great, but long jumpers = long rebounds which equal fast breaks. Dennis shooting long jumpers + everyone else shooting jumpers = poorer overall defense from the Hawks.  I want Dennis to develop this part of his game. It isn't his game now, but it can be and will only get better with Paul on the floor.

[thecampster]

Think about the correlation.  First half, Dennis takes 1/4 of the shots of Dwight/Ersan and Hawks are up 11.  Second half, Dennis takes 45% more shots that Dwight/Ersan and Hawks lose the second half by 4. Its a mentality thing. He has got to spend the summer developing the pass first mentality and take his offense in the flow of the game.

[thecampster]

Better sample.  The last 10 games the Hawks are 3-7. Over that stretch, Dennis has scored 187 points (18.7 average) but on 192 shot attempts (19.2 average).  You can not successfully play the point averaging 19.2 shots per game and scoring 18.7 points. .974 points per attempt.

 

Over that same stretch, Dwight has scored 150 points on only 97 shot attempts.  1.55 points per attempt.  

The efficiency stats don't lie. 

This isn't to say Dennis can't shoot or score. It is to say that his first option needs to be to get his teammates involved and look for his offense as the 2nd, 3rd or 4th option in the sets. I see a direct correlation between Baze's struggles this year and Dennis' mentality.

[AUhawksfan]

7 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Think about the correlation.  First half, Dennis takes 1/4 of the shots of Dwight/Ersan and Hawks are up 11.  Second half, Dennis takes 45% more shots that Dwight/Ersan and Hawks lose the second half by 4. Its a mentality thing. He has got to spend the summer developing the pass first mentality and take his offense in the flow of the game.

I agree that he needs to develop the pass mentality but he definitely isn't ready to do that now.  There are times when he tries to do too much passing the ball and his recent TOs are troubling (averaging a whopping 7 TOs in his last 5 games).

He needs to stop pressing so much.  Improving his shot will open up things a lot more as well.  I don't think he will ever be more than averaging 8 assists a game max because of his style of play.  Either way he can definitely improve.

[Lurker]

16 minutes ago, thecampster said:

In the second half, he took 3 times as many shots as in the first.  The Hawks were up 11 at the break but won by 7.  So first half, Dennis 4 shots, Ersan and Dwight 16 total. Hawks +11.  Second half, Dennis takes 12 shots, Dwight and Ersan take 11 total, Hawks -4.  Yes, I've watched it all year long and there is a correlation.  When his shot is falling it seems great, but long jumpers = long rebounds which equal fast breaks. Dennis shooting long jumpers + everyone else shooting jumpers = poorer overall defense from the Hawks.  I want Dennis to develop this part of his game. It isn't his game now, but it can be and will only get better with Paul on the floor.

Believe it or not, but Richaun Holmes being 6'8" had a factor into Dwight being more active. Dwight getting more shots has usually NOT correlated to the Hawks playing well, NOT.

[Lurker]

Against Robin Lopez, it will return to normal. Dwight will struggle on the block unless he's well into the paint and his activity level on the PNR will waver. The fact that you see a lot of missed lobs has two sides to the factor, not just the side of the guards, but the side of Dwight won't always roll hard.

If it's not a blowout, like one of the Chicago games, Dwight will just see the ball twice to three times on the block and if he doesn't roll hard on PNR, his shots will return to under 10, even with Millsap gone.

[thecampster]

Yah,

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

Against Robin Lopez, it will return to normal. Dwight will struggle on the block unless he's well into the paint and his activity level on the PNR will waver. The fact that you see a lot of missed lobs has two sides to the factor, not just the side of the guards, but the side of Dwight won't always roll hard.

If it's not a blowout, like one of the Chicago games, Dwight will just see the ball twice to three times on the block and if he doesn't roll hard on PNR, his shots will return to under 10, even with Millsap gone.

Provided a 10 game sample....sorry but it applied over the entire 10 games. Don't focus solely on last night.

[marco102]

Ok, just to get this straight.  On a team that has been struggling to score and the only guy who can get his own shot ,at the moment is Dennis, you want him to pass first to a bunch of bodies that can't shoot? Da hell?  I would love to see Dennis pass more. However, I believe he's doing exactly what Bud wants because if he was not Bud would bench him.   Bud knows we have scoring issues and with Sap, Bazemore, and Thabo out recently the scoring falls on Dennis and Timmy.  If we had two great shooters, I believe you see Dennis passing up his shot a lot more. 

I also believe Dennis is hitting a wall.  Hence his shooting percentages dropping and turnovers going up.

Edited March 31, 2017 by marco102

[rd79]

10 hours ago, thecampster said:

You can not successfully play the point averaging 19.2 shots per game and scoring 18.7 points. .974 points per attempt.

 

Over that same stretch, Dwight has scored 150 points on only 97 shot attempts.  1.55 points per attempt.  

The efficiency stats don't lie. 

This isn't to say Dennis can't shoot or score. It is to say that his first option needs to be to get his teammates involved and look for his offense as the 2nd, 3rd or 4th option in the sets. I see a direct correlation between Baze's struggles this year and Dennis' mentality.

I don't want to defend Dennis' current subpar shooting, but your arguments are.... let's call it interesting...

You're analyzing stats by comparing the PPA of your PG (who has to carry the offense without Sap) with the PPA of your Center who only scores on dunks, layups and oh yeah he made like two jumpers this season. Additionally he is gifted tons of FTs because everybody knows he dunks better than he converts from the stripe. And this 50% FTs increase his PPA because there is no shot attempt counted on a foul...

So yes efficiency stats don't lie but everybody choses the stats he looks at and gets his own truth out of them...

By the way recently there was no 2nd, 3rd, and 4th scoring option available. THJ is a 2rd option on good days and none on bad ones, maybe Dwight is a 5th option. I'm glad Baze came back on fire after his break, let's hope he keeps that and plays like that more often. If he and Ersan keep their recent form and if Saps comes back to take some load from Dennis so he can become more efficient again, we could make some noise in the playoffs

[thecampster]

Boy are you missing the argument. The vast majority of attempts Dwight is getting right now he is creating himself on put-backs and lobs. But if you were to go to Dwight consistently 8-10 times a game, he would shoot 50% on those attempts.  On the misses, a few things happen. 1) Offensive rebound put back. 2) Defensive rebound in close, Hawks have a chance to set their defense in transition. 3) Foul, where Howard shoots 50%.  Now notice I am not looking at turnovers, because those happen for both players.

Rarely does a jump shooter get his own rebound. Much more often, a center/PF gets their own rebound or their tandem does because of positioning swaps to double in the post. Lets call this 1 in 5 misses. Foul happen about 20% of the time with Howard down low. So if Howard get's 10 looks, 5 misses, 1 foul, that's 1 created point and 1 less transition for the opposition. If Howard gets his own miss or Millsap does, that's 2 points. On Howard's made shots, that is also another foul attempt.  what you see here is 10 shot attempts and about 13 points. However, you only see 4 rebounds for the opposition and none of which are fast-break type of run outs. Non-fastbreaks shoot a considerably lower percentage in the NBA...about 40%.  So on the 10 transition baskets you are seeing 4 made shots for about 9 points.

When Dennis shoots 10 shots, he makes about 44%. He'll make 3 2's and 1-3. Or 9 points. He may draw a foul in the process and get 1-3 free throws in those 10 shots.  So He'll score 10-12 points. However, he is creating 5.5 opportunities with either long rebounds or where he has driven under the basket and is out of position for defense. He is creating 5.6 fast break opportunities. In the NBA, these are converted at over 70%. So Dennis' makes are 4.4 shots, his misses are 5.6.  The same 40% on the 4.4 = 1.76 makes for the opposing team but the 5.6*7=4 more makes for the opposing team That's 5.7 makes per game on the same 10 shots if Dennis takes them. That = 3.4 more points given up or about 12.4.

 

Basketball is all about numbers and the shots Dennis is taking (the hard drives to the basket where he is blocked or has to get bailed out are low percentage for us and very high percentage transition for the opponent. Additionally, there is so much tape on Dennis now as the starter that his turnover numbers are going up and teams scout his tendencies. He needs to develop this mentality and we need to be more balanced. Here is our current shot breakdown which has only gotten worse as the season progressed.

Field Goal Attempts per Game

Dennis - 15.4 

Millsap - 14.2

THjr - 11.4

Baze - 10.1

Howard - 8.2

Dennis is taking more shots than any other member of the team and taking 10% more shots than Paul who can pretty much iso score on anyone any night. Most of Howard's attempts are garbage attempts.  Dennis is straight ball hogging and it has to stop.

[rd79]

3 hours ago, thecampster said:

Boy are you missing the argument. The vast majority of attempts Dwight is getting right now he is creating himself on put-backs and lobs.

1. Why don't the give him the ball more often down low? Because the turn the ball over a lot by force feeding him and he isn't a good post up player! How often will they turn the ball over when he is used more often and opponents recognize that?
2. Dwight may go th the basket at the right moment for a lob, but I think he would struggle to create that for himself all alone 

3 hours ago, thecampster said:

lots of words to describe the difference between big men and guards....

Actually Dennis isn't a jump shooter and lots of his misses near the basket are converted by our offensive rebounder D8. Is there a stat to check who's shot Dwight rebounded before put backs? I would even argue that the games with Dennis struggling are the ones Dwight gets more points than during games with good shooting by Dennis...

3 hours ago, thecampster said:

Dennis is taking more shots than any other member of the team and taking 10% more shots than Paul who can pretty much iso score on anyone any night. Most of Howard's attempts are garbage attempts.  Dennis is straight ball hogging and it has to stop.

That's no true and Sap has at least as much off nights as Dennis. That's why he isn't worth max money. Sap can use his experience while Dennis has to gain that 1st. Both are 2nd options for me but they complement each other quite good. When Sap has a bad game they can try to use him less, but Dennis has to create the offense even on bad nights and since there is no capable backup PG on the team he has to do that till the game is decided. Teague last year wouldn't get a 10 turnover game because Bud would have pulled him after his 4 or 5 turns and replaced him without losing much, but that's not possible at the moment.  But I think Dennis wants to be great and I hope he learns when he has to take the foot off the gas. A good verteran backup point would be good for Dennis and the team. I still don't have a clue why they traded away Mack...

[Thomas]

Well in a slightly different direction, think Dennis finding Ersan for threes has actually improved the perimeter as well as when Tim is not so ice cold. Baze has been better in stretches for a while shooting from out there. Prince is showing a bit better from three now as well so there is a glimmer of hope for Dennis helping improve our three point efficiency with his passing. Feels like the very basic drive and kick will be utilized heavily in the playoffs by us, think we have improved some there and hoping for more. Dennis not finishing in traffic can be avoided some by actually getting to the foul line and cleaning up some slop. Just about everything about us still feels like an experiment though really.

[Guest]

It's 6 of one and half dozen of the other.

As anemic as the offense can be shooting the ball - Dennis has to be called on to score.  He's handling the ball too much for my liking but that's a function of the inability of ANYBODY else on this team to adequately handle the ball.  He's getting nothing behind him on the bench to help him out.  He's the only player (besides Millsap) that can confidently drive the paint and get a basket more often than not. In this stocked PG league he has to be ready to guard the opposing PG every night.

In a PnR with Dwight at the top of the key, Dwight doesn't do anything with the ball, most of the times it's just pass it back to Dennis.  How many times our wings drive pick up their dribble with nowhere to go and it's up to Dennis to go get the ball.  Someone to relieve Dennis of ball handling duties at times would be helpful.

Teams are playing the Hawks tight on the 1-5  PnR lob to Dwight, so that doesn't always work. The hi-low PF/Dwight lob combo works with Millsap and Ersan.  

I've said all season, that when Dwight runs the floor HARD, the pass is often late where he can just catch-n-go.  Too late passes lead to Turnovers.  Traditional post passing to Dwight does not work since he has bad hands and too turnover prone since teams will dig down and strip him. He's not explosive as he once was so he can't overpower like he once did.  He doesn't pass well when he get's doubled so - more Turnovers.

Yes, I would like Dennis to shoot less but confidence is lacking in other options sometimes.  

Yes, he needs to get a handle on the turnovers, especially the UNFORCED and LAZY ones.

[Lurker]

All I'm saying is it takes two to tango. Dwight sometimes doesn't roll hard on PNR, when he does he's often played tight to prevent a lob and as a result, the guard has to score or kick it out because there isn't room for cuts to the basket when Dwight rolls.

And with the former above^^, you often see missed lobs from everyone, not just the PG. It's the guards (sometimes SFs) silently crying "Roll hard to the rim!"

I'm going to get hate for saying so, but the offense looks how it should when Millsap is the PNR roll man. Because today it has to be more than just an occasional roll guy from the big. Utah has shown that you don't necessarily need passing big men on floor, but even so, your non passing big has to be a very willing active big on the PNR instead of just stand there at times.

But Millsap is versatile and Dwight is not. Millsap will roll, hit jumpers, and pass as the roll man.

[AHF]

I think everyone is aligned that Millsap is our best player.