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I've been breaking down college tape, here's what I see so far for this college year


NBASupes

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These kids are as productive as I've seen in years at the top. Last year, it was the top 3 then scouting kicked in and then it was the top 5. This year before scouting kicks in, it's the top 6 and a major drop off from there. 

The kids this year are: Jabari Smith (Tyrone, GA/Auburn),  c holmgren (Gonzaga), P. Banchero (Duke) J. Ivey (Purdue), J. Duren (Memphis), and Kendall Brown (Baylor)

Smith doesn't remind me of anyone in particular. His game is perimeter based but he can play with his back to the basket. He plays kinda like JC but not as explosive but way better with the ball in his hands, can dribble drive, dribble pull up, he can C&S. I don't dislike anything about him. His metrics are off the scale. He can pass it very well. He's not a #1 option type but he's a perfect #2 whereas JC is a perfect #3. Smith defensive potential is very good. Man, he's a stud. I like him as much as I liked Mobley. I think he's a legit #1 overall pick for sure. A for sure stud. If I am DET or ORL, he's for sure my top target no matter what. 

https://tankathon.com/players/jabari-smith

Chet is strange like Trae Young. He got clear bust things like his size and frame but his talent and ability is world class and he's a legit #1 option down the road with high end quality defensive potential. Some people will likely sleep on him but he's probably gonna be a major star in the NBA. He's extremely productive and we knew he was a serious NBA talent before he played a game in college. I doubt he will go #1 but he should get considerations. 

https://tankathon.com/players/chet-holmgren

Pablo is a very productive freshman which is a positive. He's not out of this world like the two above or Zion but he's very good for a FR which is a great sign. With Pablo, you are looking for the "it" factor and honestly, I don't see it even as a Duke fan. If there is a player comp, he's a young Tobias Harris meets a young Derrick Coleman. I don't see a future superstar but he's gonna be a multi time all star and someone teams will have to respect. This is such a strong PF class. 

https://tankathon.com/players/paolo-banchero

J. Duren is probably the most impressive natural 5 I've seen in awhile. It's been a weak position for a minute. 2018 was the year of Ayton, Carter Jr, and Bamba as far as natural 5s go. He reminds me a lot of Mitchell Robinson but he has a much better natural frame while being like Robinson was before the weight gain. The weight gain hurt Mitch's athleticism and unlike Robinson, he has a very high feel for the game and BBIQ. Now Duren is really a #4 or #5 option on offense but he's defensive anchor. Duren will get a lot of love because centers like him are so freaking hard to find. Jarrett Allen turned himself into a stud being like this but Allen is nowhere near as impressive as Duren at this stage. Some people won't like it but he could go #1. It's so hard to find centers like this. 

https://tankathon.com/players/jalen-duren

J. Ivey is the best guard in this draft by a mile. If you had to compare him to other great guard prospects like trae-young--ja-morant--davion-mitchell--jalen-suggs. You will notice he is not the scorer Trae or Ja was but is superior to the others. Ivey like Suggs is an elite rebounding guard. In the NBA, I do believe Ivey will be a 1. His assists a not close to these other players which hurts his positional versatility rank. That said, Russell Westbrook is proof that this doesn't matter as much if you are elite slasher which Ivey is. In the NBA, the ability to get the rack at will opens up passing lanes even if you have iffy court vision. I personally feel like Ivey is a rich man's Russell Westbrook due to his shooting ability. If you want to draft the most sure fire star in this draft, it's Ivey but there are better basketball players in this draft. 

https://tankathon.com/players/jaden-ivey

Kendall Brown (Baylor), unique player, tremendous vision, not much of a half court player due to a shaky shoot but has a really good feel for the game and makes really good live ball decisions with the ball and quickly. Doesn't hold the ball. Good ball handler. Tries to attack closeouts and is a really good finisher around the rim. His defense is active and smart. He's clearly a 3. Isn't that skilled. More of a role player for now. Once he improves his jump shot, he could become a really good player and maybe a stud with development. Guys at his height and athletic ability with good feel and BBIQ are always intriguing long term. He's extremely productive but has what I call the JJJ bug which is, when you play under 24 MPG as a NBA prospect, there is a great chance you are no good right now. 

https://tankathon.com/players/kendall-brown

 

After that, this class has role players like https://tankathon.com/players/keegan-murray and very talented but raw guys like https://tankathon.com/players/patrick-baldwin-jr. It should be fun to see who also emerges in this class. Overall, outside of the top 6, good luck getting a legit stud. Bennedict Mathurin, A.J. Griffin, TyTy Washington, and Mark Williams are interesting to me. 

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If I had to rate a top 6 for this class:

1. J. Ivey - I always say, go for the superstar. I can understand if DET or HOU don't do this but OKC can. NO has to do this, as does the Spurs, Blazers, Pacers, and Knicks. Sucks to see the Hawks in this range. 😞

2. Chet - He might be smaller than Brandan Wright size wise but he's taller and just a lot better. His size and frame is a major issue but his skills, talent, and ability is world class. He's a difference maker and those are what you want in a draft. 

3. Jabari Smith - I think he's the best player in this draft. Just, you want a #1 option at #1. He's best as a #2. His frame is narrow like JC. That said, this guy got everything to be a star for many years to come in the NBA. The most sure thing in this draft. Sometimes, the best players go 3. MJ and Mobley for example. Reddit will likely add Doncic but I am riding with Trigga Trae. 

I feel there is a gap after 3. Duren, Pablo, and Brown are all worthy top of the lottery picks but they are more fill the need players who can become something more than actual difference makers. I don't see a Zion in this class but I do see stars. 

4. I'll have to go with Brown. He's the most raw of the bunch but wings who can PDS, athletic, defend at a high level, and have at least the shooting form to look like they can be good is so hard to find and these guys develop so well in this league. Gambling on these guys generally works, you just gotta be patient. For Brown, at least the defense is there. 

5. Duren - I just think finding a natural 5 who can anchor, have high BBIQ, screen, athletic and can defend in space with a legit NBA 5 frame is so hard to find. Teams need it so bad and it's so hard to find. I just think he has the edge over Pablo. 

6. Pablo - I just think the offensive minded 4 who can PDS and can shoot is very valuable but it's not a difference maker. He will be a lottery pick for sure but defense is more important for 4/5 in 2021 than offense is if you are amicable on both ends. Pablo would probably be a clear #1 in 2006. 

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Just now, Spud2nique said:

I see this too. In about 1% of ballers or less, physiques ain’t got nuttin to do with it. He’s one of those. He’s extremely skilled and intelligent. I’m a fan.

He's a beast. I honestly think his best fit is Houston. Him, Sengun, and Green is a future nightmare in the making in 2025-26. 

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33 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

He's a beast. I honestly think his best fit is Houston. Him, Sengun, and Green is a future nightmare in the making in 2025-26. 

My Rocket 🚀 fan friend agrees. He said he didn’t care if he got Chet or Pablo but I dunno, ya Houston is gonna be something nice in a few years if all goes well. I like the kid Christopher they got too. He’s got a bit of everything in his toolbox 🧰 

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15 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

My Rocket 🚀 fan friend agrees. He said he didn’t care if he got Chet or Pablo but I dunno, ya Houston is gonna be something nice in a few years if all goes well. I like the kid Christopher they got too. He’s got a bit of everything in his toolbox 🧰 

There is a massive difference between Pablo and Chet. 

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  • 2 months later...
On 12/24/2021 at 1:44 AM, NBASupes said:

These kids are as productive as I've seen in years at the top. Last year, it was the top 3 then scouting kicked in and then it was the top 5. This year before scouting kicks in, it's the top 6 and a major drop off from there. 

The kids this year are: Jabari Smith (Tyrone, GA/Auburn),  c holmgren (Gonzaga), P. Banchero (Duke) J. Ivey (Purdue), J. Duren (Memphis), and Kendall Brown (Baylor)

Smith doesn't remind me of anyone in particular. His game is perimeter based but he can play with his back to the basket. He plays kinda like JC but not as explosive but way better with the ball in his hands, can dribble drive, dribble pull up, he can C&S. I don't dislike anything about him. His metrics are off the scale. He can pass it very well. He's not a #1 option type but he's a perfect #2 whereas JC is a perfect #3. Smith defensive potential is very good. Man, he's a stud. I like him as much as I liked Mobley. I think he's a legit #1 overall pick for sure. A for sure stud. If I am DET or ORL, he's for sure my top target no matter what. 

https://tankathon.com/players/jabari-smith

Chet is strange like Trae Young. He got clear bust things like his size and frame but his talent and ability is world class and he's a legit #1 option down the road with high end quality defensive potential. Some people will likely sleep on him but he's probably gonna be a major star in the NBA. He's extremely productive and we knew he was a serious NBA talent before he played a game in college. I doubt he will go #1 but he should get considerations. 

https://tankathon.com/players/chet-holmgren

Pablo is a very productive freshman which is a positive. He's not out of this world like the two above or Zion but he's very good for a FR which is a great sign. With Pablo, you are looking for the "it" factor and honestly, I don't see it even as a Duke fan. If there is a player comp, he's a young Tobias Harris meets a young Derrick Coleman. I don't see a future superstar but he's gonna be a multi time all star and someone teams will have to respect. This is such a strong PF class. 

https://tankathon.com/players/paolo-banchero

J. Duren is probably the most impressive natural 5 I've seen in awhile. It's been a weak position for a minute. 2018 was the year of Ayton, Carter Jr, and Bamba as far as natural 5s go. He reminds me a lot of Mitchell Robinson but he has a much better natural frame while being like Robinson was before the weight gain. The weight gain hurt Mitch's athleticism and unlike Robinson, he has a very high feel for the game and BBIQ. Now Duren is really a #4 or #5 option on offense but he's defensive anchor. Duren will get a lot of love because centers like him are so freaking hard to find. Jarrett Allen turned himself into a stud being like this but Allen is nowhere near as impressive as Duren at this stage. Some people won't like it but he could go #1. It's so hard to find centers like this. 

https://tankathon.com/players/jalen-duren

J. Ivey is the best guard in this draft by a mile. If you had to compare him to other great guard prospects like trae-young--ja-morant--davion-mitchell--jalen-suggs. You will notice he is not the scorer Trae or Ja was but is superior to the others. Ivey like Suggs is an elite rebounding guard. In the NBA, I do believe Ivey will be a 1. His assists a not close to these other players which hurts his positional versatility rank. That said, Russell Westbrook is proof that this doesn't matter as much if you are elite slasher which Ivey is. In the NBA, the ability to get the rack at will opens up passing lanes even if you have iffy court vision. I personally feel like Ivey is a rich man's Russell Westbrook due to his shooting ability. If you want to draft the most sure fire star in this draft, it's Ivey but there are better basketball players in this draft. 

https://tankathon.com/players/jaden-ivey

Kendall Brown (Baylor), unique player, tremendous vision, not much of a half court player due to a shaky shoot but has a really good feel for the game and makes really good live ball decisions with the ball and quickly. Doesn't hold the ball. Good ball handler. Tries to attack closeouts and is a really good finisher around the rim. His defense is active and smart. He's clearly a 3. Isn't that skilled. More of a role player for now. Once he improves his jump shot, he could become a really good player and maybe a stud with development. Guys at his height and athletic ability with good feel and BBIQ are always intriguing long term. He's extremely productive but has what I call the JJJ bug which is, when you play under 24 MPG as a NBA prospect, there is a great chance you are no good right now. 

https://tankathon.com/players/kendall-brown

 

After that, this class has role players like https://tankathon.com/players/keegan-murray and very talented but raw guys like https://tankathon.com/players/patrick-baldwin-jr. It should be fun to see who also emerges in this class. Overall, outside of the top 6, good luck getting a legit stud. Bennedict Mathurin, A.J. Griffin, TyTy Washington, and Mark Williams are interesting to me. 

I think Kendall Brown would be a good fit for us..We're gonna need another young wing....Hes not a ball stopper like Hunter and isnt afraid of contact like Huerter...And we need some fkn athletes on this squad.. He might be the most athletic player in the draft..And he's only 18....

 

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News from the KY front*:

With Cap and OO here, we probably don't need him, but I would love for the Hawks to get Oscar Tshiebwe. Latest mock drafts have him in 2nd rd if at all, but I suspect he could make it to the 1st round after March Madness.

Really strong, not afraid to muscle his way for a rebound. In top 2 for both O and D rebounds nationally I believe.

If for some reason we trade CC for anything other than Ayton, I think OO and OT would be a serious 1-2 punch in the mouth.

.

.

* Disclosure, I haven't been able to watch as many UK games this year, but based on what I've seen, they're looking good.

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1 minute ago, bird_dirt said:

News from the KY front*:

With Cap and OO here, we probably don't need him, but I would love for the Hawks to get Oscar Tshiebwe. Latest mock drafts have him in 2nd rd if at all, but I suspect he could make it to the 1st round after March Madness.

Really strong, not afraid to muscle his way for a rebound. In top 2 for both O and D rebounds nationally I believe.

If for some reason we trade CC for anything other than Ayton, I think OO and OT would be a serious 1-2 punch in the mouth.

.

.

* Disclosure, I haven't been able to watch as many UK games this year, but based on what I've seen, they're looking good.

If you say so, I didn’t follow the draft this year. I don’t know my head from my a$$… on that front… :indifferent:

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