Zach Edey Conundrum - Could Edey be the next great Atlanta Hawk or is he the next Cam Reddish

[AtLaS]

I've just always wanted to see Trae with a 5 that can stretch the floor.  I feel like we'd be unstoppable offensively.  Clint is such a major issue in this offense.  

I'm not opposed to Edey though b/c he would clearly be an offensive upgrade over Clint, but the lane will remain clogged for Trae drives.

[shakes]

16 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

SGA is not a PG anymore, who's the 3rd one?

Here's what I've learned watching 60+ Thunder games this year.  SGA isn't the PG on that team, he's the 2.    PG is JDub.  Giddey also runs the point.  SGA runs it as well.   JDub is the best PnR initiator on the team.

 

So they have 3 PGs in the SL.    And when any of them rest there is always at least one on the court to run the point.

[shakes]

5 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

He doesn't start but yeah I forgot about him. Yeah, they aren't drafting a PG when they drafted one last year. 

They have a drive and kick scheme. I don't see the fit. They like to play 5 out, A LOT. They do need size but you can find size in Europe for how they play

 

11 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Cason Wallace.

OKC is also one of the faster paced offenses in the NBA.  Bad fit for the slow Edey.  

 

Wallace is NOT a point guard.  He's a shooting guard.   The 3 PGs on OKC are SGA, JDub and Giddey.   

 

Heck, Chet initiates more offense than Wallace.   

[shakes]

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

He doesn't start but yeah I forgot about him. Yeah, they aren't drafting a PG when they drafted one last year. 

They have a drive and kick scheme. I don't see the fit. They like to play 5 out, A LOT. They do need size but you can find size in Europe for how they play

 

not just drive and kick.  They also play drive and cut like they're still living in the 90s.   That's why they need the middle open, so there is room for the cutters to flash.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

With the sheer volume of 3pt shooting other teams have and percentages nobody is giving him those post ups and if a team does they are going to lose via the 3 point game 99% of the time.

This depends entirely on the conversion rate.  League wide 3pt% is 36.6%.  That is equivalent to shooting 54.9% on your 2pt shots.  Factor in the fouls drawn (presumably more on post ups than on 3pt attempts) and you'll get to your TS%.  Then you can factor in the number of turnerovers from each type of action and the offensive rebounds and get to something closer to an all-in efficiency on those types of possessions versus 3pt shooting.  

For example, Siakam is shooting over 64% on post-ups this year and Kristaps is shooting over 62% (this is simple fg% on those plays not TS%).  Jokic, Towns, Valanciunas, Embiid, and a variety of forwards (Giannis, Kawhi, etc.)  have been very successful on post-ups at a rate that (at least based on efg% alone) looks to be materially more efficienct than the average 3pt shot.  Other big men have had success roughly on par with 3pt shooting (Sengun, Sabonis, etc.).  

The real question for how effective will Edey be on those shots and, if he does it effectively, at what point does that efficiency fall off?  (Across the league the # of post-ups has significantly dropped in recent years while the success rate of those post-ups has significantly risen which makes sense similar to the success rate of taking more open 3pt shots - when you are more selective you should be more effective).    

[NBASupes]

17 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

I've just always wanted to see Trae with a 5 that can stretch the floor.  I feel like we'd be unstoppable offensively.  Clint is such a major issue in this offense.  

I'm not opposed to Edey though b/c he would clearly be an offensive upgrade over Clint, but the lane will remain clogged for Trae drives.

Edey won't clog any lanes. He has his own gravity. If anything, he opens a lot of driving lanes. 

[NBASupes]

14 minutes ago, shakes said:

 

not just drive and kick.  They also play drive and cut like they're still living in the 90s.   That's why they need the middle open, so there is room for the cutters to flash.

Cutting is a part of DnK scheme. That's why they had lukewarm success with it last year. 

Chet massively improved their offense just by his abilities offensively. Defensively, just due his lack of bulk and strength, he has issues at the 5 but he makes up for it with his offensive value. 

[NBASupes]

18 minutes ago, shakes said:

 

 

Wallace is NOT a point guard.  He's a shooting guard.   The 3 PGs on OKC are SGA, JDub and Giddey.   

 

Heck, Chet initiates more offense than Wallace.   

JDub is a 2 to me but I can see how you could see him as a PG. He does have PG qualities. 

[AHF]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

JDub is a 2 to me but I can see how you could see him as a PG. He does have PG qualities. 

OKC has a bunch of guys who could be called combo guards.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

OKC has a bunch of guys who could be called combo guards.

I agree, how they use them together is extremely interesting 

[Mikey]

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Edey won't clog any lanes. He has his own gravity. If anything, he opens a lot of driving lanes. 

Where was that gravity when a team just played him straight up... oh yeah it doesn't exist. No team is going to double him at the next level cause they will be fine with conceding 2s 

[KB21]

1 minute ago, Mikey said:

Where was that gravity when a team just played him straight up... oh yeah it doesn't exist. No team is going to double him at the next level cause they will be fine with conceding 2s 

Also, they aren't going to guard him on the perimeter.  

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

Where was that gravity when a team just played him straight up... oh yeah it doesn't exist. No team is going to double him at the next level cause they will be fine with conceding 2s 

He will always have that gravity. Hell, he had that gravity even in the UCONN game. He was scoring at will till they started showing different coverages as Hurley stated he was going to do. 

Plus, if you think teams can easily guard Trae, JJ, Murray, and Hunter, then I don't know what to tell you. 

I can't wait for a team in the NBA to do what UCONN did to Edey with Trae. 

Edited April 10 by NBASupes

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

Where was that gravity when a team just played him straight up... oh yeah it doesn't exist. No team is going to double him at the next level cause they will be fine with conceding 2s 

It all depends on how big of a threat he is.  No team will concede 2’s at a 60% clip for example.  They will adjust to stop that or lose most games.  
 

If he is converting at a 50% rate or lower or can’t produce at a significant volume then sure.

[AHF]

Fwiw, the 3 mocks that Jay posted today have Edey at 20, 22 and 31.

[KB21]

Boom or bust aren't the only NBA outcomes for Edey | theScore.com

[JeffS17]

Most attractive thing about the guy is his work ethic, so I wouldn't hate taking him with our Kings pick if he's still available.

[bird_dirt]

Adding more fuel to the fire…

 

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39906470/nba-draft-2024-projecting-30-best-prospects

 

NBA draft 2024: Projecting 30 of the best prospects

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Senior Writer

Apr 10, 2024, 08:00 AM ET

Atypically in the one-and-done men's college basketball era, Monday's national championship game featured two of the top four prospects in my stats-based projections squaring off against each other. Purdue center Zach Edey, the consensus national player of the year, and UConn counterpart Donovan Clingan are among the standouts in what's been panned as a weak 2024 NBA draft class.

Although Edey had a dominant game (37 points, 10 rebounds), Clingan's ability to defend him one-on-one enabled the Huskies to stay home on Edey's teammates and limit 3-point attempts as the Huskies won their second title in a row.

Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012.

This year's top players are atypical in terms of establishing themselves late in the process, however. Edey was projected in the second round of the preseason mock draft from ESPN's Jonathan Givony, while Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard was nowhere to be found before his freshman season in Lexington.

My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other levels to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ESPN's top 100 prospect rankings for the best consensus projection.

For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.

Now, let's get to the projections for players currently in the top 100.

 

1. Donovan Clingan

UConn
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 3.7 WARP

Clingan had the top stats-based projection heading into last year's NCAA tournament while coming off the bench on the national championship winner behind NBA-bound Adama Sanogo. Clingan's strong productivity in that role has translated into dominance as a sophomore starter, particularly during the NCAA tournament run.

The 7-foot-2 Clingan would be just the third draft pick in my database projected to block at least 6% of opponent 2-point attempts and secure at least 20% of available defensive rebounds, joining Mo Bambaand Victor Wembanyama. Because he's moved all the way up to third in the top 100, Clingan now has the top overall projection despite dropping to third in the stats-only version.

 

2. Reed Sheppard

Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 3.7 WARP

Although Sheppard's 52% 3-point shooting (on a robust sample of 144 attempts) is regressed down to a projected 39% as an NBA rookie, that's still the best projection for any player since Doug McDermott -- who had multiple years of college data -- in 2014. Sheppard's projected 2.5 steals per 100 plays, second among players in this year's top 100, is almost as impressive as his shooting. Thanks largely to those key skills, Sheppard has the best stats-only projection in this year's draft.

 

3. Alex Sarr

Perth
C
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 3.6 WARP

Sarr's stats-only projection is slightly better than the median No. 1 pick in the past 12 drafts. Playing in the Australian NBL at 18 years old, Sarr averaged 20.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes this season. Despite shooting just 30% on 3s, Sarr's 71% accuracy at the line suggests he has the potential to develop into a stretch 5 in time.

 

4. Zach Edey

Purdue
C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.1 WARP

Nobody doubts that Edey has been the best player in college basketball. The question is how his skills will translate to the NBA at 7-4. One interesting data point: No college player with a usage projection as high as Edey's has been drafted in the past 12 years. The two players ahead of him, Marquette guard Markus Howard and former Purdue teammate Trevion Williams, played go-to roles that didn't carry over in the NBA. (Williams has yet to play in the league, while Howard did on a two-way contract.) Nonetheless, Edey's dominance has earned him a spot in the first round after he chose to return for his fourth season at Purdue. And, after moving up in the top 100, Edey is the fourth and final player in the top tier of my projections.

 

5. Zaccharie Risacher

Bourg
SF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 81

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

On the plus side, Risacher -- currently atop ESPN's draft rankings -- averaged 13.1 PPG in just 24 minutes per game during EuroCup play at 18 years old (he turned 19 on Monday), making 57% of his 2s and 56% of his 3s. That performance was out of line with Risacher's play in the French LNB Pro A, however, as he shot just 51% on 2s and 34% on 3s. And a 69% career free throw shooting percentage across all first-division competition suggests Risacher's 3-point hot streak in EuroCup play might not be legitimate. 

[NBASupes]

https://www.espn.com/nba/draft2014/insider/story/_/id/11102133/nba-draft-marcus-smart-tops-kevin-pelton-prospect-projection-rankings?platform=android&appsrc=sc

Edey has the same 3.1 WARP as another center who is a perennial MVP candidate.

 

https://www.espn.com/nba/draft2014/insider/story/_/id/11064231/clint-capela-leads-projection-top-10-international-prospects-2014-nba-draft

 

Edited April 11 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

For those who want to know more about Pelton projections 

https://www.espn.com/nba/draft2013/insider/story/_/page/PerDiem-130625/how-warp-projections-fared