Do we take Howard or Smith??

[Blunt91]

I was over at NBAdraft.net and they currently have Josh Smith as the 7th overall pick. So if Josh Smith is still available at the 6thpick do we forget about Howard?or is Howard the guy we really want but Smith would be a nice consilation prize? I also found it interesting that Jameer Nelson has fallen to the 15th postion. If we get lucky and get in the top 3 and don't have to trade up to get Howard or Smith do we trade up to get Jameer Nelson? Here is a link to NBAdraft.net

http://www.nbadraft.net/index.asp

[TheDude]

i'd stay and get smith if we could.. we'd still have assets that we would have normally used to get howard for another trade of some kind.

If we could give up a 2nd round pick to move up a spot or two to get Jameer then I would but that would be it. If not, use the 2nd on Duhon or somebody.

[Weez]

I'd rahter have smith over Howard, period. that being said, I'd take Duhon and quite a few other pg's over Nelson too....he simply doesn't have a pro game.

[jeddelong]

One think about the nbadraft.net mock is that it does not take into account team needs. They aren't going to do that until next week I think. I noticed this at first because it has Chicago taking Howard which most people say won't happen (they are trying to move away from youth). The story here is that particuarly in the teens there will be much variance until team needs are factored in.

[Blunt91]

So are you saying Josh Smith will be a better player than Howard? Joshua didn't show me too much in the Mcdonald's All AMerican game. He has NBA range and can dunk but that was all that I saw, however for some reason he didn't get alot of playing time either. In my opinion I think the top 3 lotto teams will be 1. Orlando 2. Washington 3. Chicago Bulls. IF the Wizards get the 2ndpick I don't see that much of a need for Howard for them they might just pick Luol Deng or Shawn Livingston instead. Or they might draft Howard for us as a bargining chip to get or pick plus another pick and a player.

[Weez]

Yeah, I do think that Smith will be the better pro. Unless Howard really focuses on his fundamentals, footwork, and back to the basket game, he's going to plateau...and the fact that he's a "nice guy" actually hurts him to a degree in my mind. You just don't see that burn in him (or I haven't) to win games, to be the best. Duncan is the rare, rare exception to this rule.

That being said, I really hope Deng doesn't come out. He showed me little this year to warrant his departure...he needs major work on his handles and has trouble creating his own shot...maybe we'll get "lucky" with a 5th pick, Bulls draft Deng, and Smith falls to us....

[Diesel]

I seriously doubt that it falls the way that NBADraft.net has it. They didn't put much thought into their picks.

For instance, with Jarvis Hayes, Washington doesn't need another swingman. Their blaring need is at C and PF. They'd probably either trade down if they don't get Okafur or they'd take Biedrins.

LAC will not take another PF. They have Brand, Ely, Wilcox their blaring need is PG/SG... If they sign Dooling/Jaric, I think they'd either go after Deng because he's a good piece or they'd take Livingston or Harris.

Charlotte. Might take Livingston or they might take Deng. Make sense. He's from Duke... Good Piece. Right now, Bickerstaff is trying to get Okafur.

So here's my mock...

Orlando - Okafur.

Chicago - Howard.

Washington - Biedrins.

Charlotte - Deng.

LAC - Livingston.

Atlanta - Jo. Smith.

Phoenix - Harris.

Toronto - Podkolzine.

Philly - Chiraleav...

However, Chicago will try to trade up.

Orlando will listen to Chicago's proposals.

Washington will try to trade down.

So it could be:

1. Chicago - Okafur. After trading #2 + Curry/Crawford to Orlando for #1/J. Howard.

2. Orlando - Howard. - Listens to Atlanta.

3. Toronto - Deng. - After trading Marshall/#8

4. Charlotte - Livingston.

5. LAC - Josh Smith.

6. Atlanta - What do we do now...

I would trade JT/#6 to Orlando for Howard.

They would have:

JT/Crawford/Tmac/Gooden/Curry.

Just by trading down.

[Diesel]

Howard is young, but footwork is not a problem. He showed excellent footwork in the games I have seen him play. I didn't like the fact that he dunked so much in the McDonald's game. It almost made me think that's all there was to his game. But in the Capitol Classic, he showed a lot more. He has ball fakes and moves that remind me of a young Webber. I think that once he gets out there and gets stronger he will be hard to stop!

On the other hand, I think Smith will make a bigger impact earlier. But for an example..

Howard will come in better than A. Stoudamire.

Smith will come in on the same level or just a littel lower than Mello...

If we got Smith at 6, I would trade everything but Smith for Howard...

That means I'd take a bad Contract like Grant Hill.

[Nicholasp27]

nbadraft.net CAN'T put thought into order based on team needs as the lottery HASN'T yet happened

if they don't know what team is picking when, then they can't do a mock draft based on team needs!

sorry to have to state the obvious, but it seems that most are overlooking that fact

[Traceman]

Howard is nowhere near strong enough or aggressive enough to come in and have the impact that Stoudemire did as a rookie. He might be even better than Amare long term but I don't see that happening as a rookie. I think Howard will be slightly better than Bosh was as a rookie which isn't bad but certainly is not as good as Stoudemire was.

As for Smith being on the same level as Carmelo, PLEASE! Carmelo was damn near an All Star this year in the tough WC where they are LOADED with forwards. Smith has NOWHERE NEAR the stroke or basketball savvy that Carmelo has, in fact the ONLY thing he has on Melo is athleticism. I think Smith is going to be about like J Rich was as a rookie at best. Hell, if Smith were that good, he'd be the top overall pick hands down.

[Diesel]

Howard has more natural ability than Stoudamire. Sizewise, he's not far off either.

Smith will be surprising to say the least. Of what I have seen of him, he has the package. He can shoot, defend, run, Jump, rebound. He won't be in the same position as Mello unless he comes here, however, he will have exceptional ability. I will give Mello the edge in terms of knowledge of the game. However, that athleticism will make Smith's rookie year similiar to Vinny C's rookie year.

[cyman3]

yea i agree... if Melo came out of the draft this year, he'll be a lock for the top pick (even edging Okafor).

Melo was THE MOST NBA-READY college player in his draft.

if ur expectin SMITH to do what MELO did, ur basically expectin SMITH to produce LeBron James type numbers (since melo/james have similar stats).

and we all know that LEBRON JAMES is like once a decade type of HIGH SCHOOL PLAYER.

Next year, if Smith can produce half of CARMELO's numbers... he'll be a top 10 ROOKIE OF THE YEAR nominee.

[ctownsuper]

I am sorry to state the obvious but NONE of the high school players in this draft will have a huge impact. They will put up ok numbers if they get the PT (drafted by a team with no one, i.e. the Hawks). But Howard is compared to Kwame Brown (4.5 and 3.5). Smith is compared to Mcgrady (7 and 4). Smith will be nowhere near Melo, because Melo WENT TO COLLEGE. Howard will not be as good as Bosh because Bosh WENT TO COLLEGE. Don't get me wrong these guys will succeed but they are not gonna be deserving of all star bids like James and Melo were (should of been selected). They will be your typical unpolished guys coming straight out of high school. So Hawks fans, you may get your superstar in Smith or Howard, but he will not be a star in his first year, wait at least one, most likely two, or even three or four and you will have your superstar.

[Diesel]

The fact that some players go to college and stay in college speaks more to the fact that they are not going to be great pros! For instance, when was the last time a college player stayed until his Senior year and came out and dominated the NBA?

It doesn't happen. College doesn't do much to train somebody to play in the NBA. Coaches aren't teaching players to be successful on the NBA level, rather how to be college players. That's the problem with Duke. The longer a player stay at Duke, the worst his chances become that he will actually be a good NBA player.

#1. Good Players are eager to leave the confines of College.

#2. A good player can do more coming off the bench in the pros than going to college.

Just look at the numbers:

Magic, Micheal, Isiah, Vince, Shaq, Mello, Bosh.... All left College early.

Tmac, Kobe, KG, King James, J. Oneal,.... Never went to College.

Only Duncan is the guy in the top 10 that went for 4 years. He needed it because he picked up Basketball late in Life.

[Traceman]

The issue is WHEN will that impact come? LeBron is the only player on your list of guys who came straight out of HS and had a HUGE impact right away. Others such as Moses Malone and Amare Stoudemire have done it but the vast majority of HS guys have taken at least 2 to 3 years to have a significant impact.

As for your list of guys who left college early, Jordan, Carter and Shaq all spent 3 years in college. Magic and Isiah spent 2 years in college. Melo and Bosh only spent 1 year in college but its not like Bosh had a tremendous impact on the Raptors this year. He was good for a rookie with one year of college experience and he shows a lot of upside but his numbers were just okay.

I also take issue with your statement that: "A good player can do more coming off the bench in the pros than going to college." That certainly depends on what you mean by "coming off the bench." If the guy is coming off the bench like Darko Millic is, I don't think that statement is true at all. Darko would be MUCH better served from a developmental standpoint if he were playing rather than sitting on the bench. If he were a part of the rotation where he played 25+ mpg, it might be different.

[Diesel]

Quote:

---

I also take issue with your statement that: "A good player can do more coming off the bench in the pros than going to college."

---

Let me clearify.

Your example of Darko is one that is noted but really doesn't apply. Darko was not going to go to College anyway.

However, look at a guy like Elton Brand. What would staying at Duke have done for his career? I think the best thing he could have done was COME out and play with the big boys. I mention Duke a lot because Duke does not really prepare players for the pro game. It teaches that team defense centered around zone defense and that team offense centered around a motion offense. Both of those are almost useless in the pros.

Pro player focus more on one on one defense. How many one on one defensive players come out of college? Not many because they have been watered down with the zone crap.

Another example...

Grant Hill. Gong into Duke, Grant Hill was almost the same player as he was coming out of Duke. He only got a little better.

However, if you would have put that young Grant Hill with a coach who knows the game like Adleman and you would have seen a better player quicker.

You say Jordan and Magic and Zeke played three years... That's true. However, it was almost unheard of to come out as a Sophomore in those days. The College rules have changed... It used to be that you couldn't start until you were at least a Sophomore. Then it was you didn't consider leaving until you were a Junior. Now, people are beginning to see that College is a money making shame and it's better to go pro and learn from the sidelines (if you have to). I don't think KG, Kobe, or Oneal would have progressed as quickly had they gone and wasted time in college.

[Packfill]

The question is not which players hurt themselves staying in school (that is a short list, and the only real downside is draft position or injury, not so much development), it is which players hurt themselves by NOT staying in school. Guys like Omar Cook, Lenny Cooke, William Avery, DerMarr Johnson, Darius Miles, Jamal Crawford, Eddie Curry, Kwame Brown, Rodney White, Mike Dunleavy, DeJuan Wagner, Samuel Dalembert, etc. Some of these guys will be great successes - some are already turning the corner - but it is hard to argue that they would not have benefitted from another year or two in college with some playing time.

The pros do not necessarily do a better job developing players than college - Miles is exhibit A. Has he really improved in his 3 years in the league? Not much. Corey Magette is another example, he has improved, but it took a long time for him to get there. Argueably, he could have developed faster by taking a leading role on that Duke team after Brand, Langdon and Avery left.

And saying Grant Hill stymied his development by staying 4 years in college is crazy. Prior to injury he was one of the ten best players in the league - what more do you want?

Now some players don't need 4 years or 3 years or even two years of college - guys like Lebron and Carmelo for example. But what about a guy like Dejuan Wagner? How has leaving early benefitted his career other than fattening his wallet? He has not developed and his body was not ready for the grind of an NBA season.

Both Howard and Smith are great talents but it is asking an awful lot for them to come in and be stars right away. Jermaine O'Neal took a fews years to develop but he is an excellent player now. Stoudamire has come on faster, but will he ever be as good as Jermaine? Maybe?