Wednesday Insider

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Note: NBA Insider Chad Ford will be chatting live on ESPN.com today at 1 p.m. E.T. Click here to submit your questions.

The summer of 2002 is already poised to go down in NBA annals as the league's version of the Great Depression — no players and no money equals no signings. Rashard Lewis and Keon Clark are up for the part of Tom Joad in the film adaptation — the Free Agents of Wrath.

However, the general consensus is that the lackluster market will last only one season. That's why several prominent free agents are trying to ride this thing out. Why accept a bad deal this year when you can get a great one next summer? But are we really in for a full recovery?

There has been a plethora of talk over the last few months about next year's free-agent class. Tim Duncan, Jason Kidd, Jermaine O'Neal, Alonzo Mourning, Gary Payton, Karl Malone, Jerry Stackhouse, Elden Campbell, P.J. Brown, Juwan Howard, Brad Miller and Clifford Robinson are all eligible to be unrestricted free agents in 2003. With the way negotiations are going, players like Michael Olowokandi and Bonzi Wells could join them.

Then there will be a few top-notch restricted free agents (assuming they don't get extensions), including Elton Brand, Lamar Odom, Jonathan Bender, Wally Szczerbiak, Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Ron Artest, Gilbert Arenas and Corey Maggette.

In other words, the talent drought will be over. But will teams really have the money to lure top free agents away from home? Insider worked with several league sources over the past few weeks to get a rough gauge of each team's cap situation next summer. Those sources feel that the salary cap will likely increase back to the $42.5 million level next summer. Using that number, exactly how many teams will have the cap room to sign a free agent to a max deal?

The answer may surprise you. Only five teams are currently on pace to be far enough below that cap to offer a contract starting at $10 million a year — San Antonio, Denver, Utah, Indiana and the L.A. Clippers. But even that number is deceiving. Given the high number of free agents who the Pacers want to re-sign (Jermaine O'Neal, Reggie Miller, Jonathan Bender, Ron Artest, Jeff Foster), the Pacers won't be real players. Ditto for the Clippers, who will have (depending on what they do this summer with extensions) four players looking for big contracts. That leaves basically three teams with enough money to offer a free agent a max contract.

Of those three, the Nuggets and Spurs will actually have enough cap room to give two max deals. The Spurs will obviously earmark half of that money for their own free agent, Duncan. They're expected to use the other half to try to lure Kidd away from New Jersey. The Nuggets are wide open. The could have as much as $25 million in cap room next season and will certainly attempt to use a majority of it. The Jazz will be around $16 million under the cap. However, if they re-sign Donyell Marshall or use their full mid-level exception, that number will decrease. And, if the Jazz decide to re-up the Mailman next summer, their cap room will likely completely disappear.

Several other teams figure to have significant cap room next year. The Wizards and Cavs (again on the assumption that they don't add more long-term salaries this summer) will have roughly $7 million in cap room. The Heat have cleared away about $6.5 million in cap space, and the Magic are currently looking at about $5 million in cap room.

The Sonics could also have cap room next summer depending on the outcome of the Rashard Lewis negotiations. If Lewis leaves for Dallas, and the Sonics don't receive compensation, the team should be about $15 million under the cap. However, unless the team renounces Payton, his cap hold will eat up most of the remainder of its cap space. If Lewis re-signs, the Sonics won't have enough money under the cap to offer Kidd a full max contract. The Pistons also will have some room, but if they decide to re-sign Jerry Stackhouse, it will all disappear.

From there, it's pretty easy to do the math. Obviously, players can re-sign with their own teams regardless of whether teams have cap space. For free agents looking to switch teams, there will be basically four max contracts available and another four or five contracts that exceed the mid-level exception.

That's why several agents are thinking twice about grabbing a team's one-year tender or taking a one-year deal. There will be a lot of competition for a few precious salary slots next summer. While it may make sense for a prominent free agent like Olowokandi to wait, wouldn't a guy like Wells or Clark just get squeezed again? Combine the scarcity of cap space with the first-ever luxury-tax hit (most teams think the shoe will drop this year) and things could be just as gloomy next year.

Somewhere, David Stern is kicking back on the beach, stogie in hand, laughing his butt off at Bud Selig and the disaster known as Major League Baseball.

Are the Nets and Sixers done swapping?

The free-agent drizzle of 2002 may be lulling you into a coma, but the latest flurry of blockbuster trades is suddenly depleting the rumor mill.

Over the last few weeks, rumor mill standards Andre Miller, Glenn Robinson, Vin Baker, Kenny Anderson and now Dikembe Mutombo and Keith Van Horn have all packed their bags. Who said there's nothing to all the trade rumors floating around the NBA?

"It's the only way you can significantly upgrade your team this year," one team executive told Insider Tuesday. "There aren't many impact free agents this year and the draft has become such a developmental thing trades are the only way to significantly improve your team."

Of course, "significantly improve" is in the eye of the beholder. While it's pretty easy to argue that Miller significantly improved the Clippers, the other major deals of the last few weeks are open to interpretation. In many instances, it seems like teams are swapping problems for problems. How many times have we heard the old standby, "he needs a change of scenery" thrown out there, without provocation, at a press conference the last few weeks?

Will a change of scenery really stop Baker from devouring Twinkies by the truckload? Will the Big Dog suddenly feel the urge to play defense now that he's hanging with Ted Turner? And, while the blood is still fresh, does anyone believe that Van Horn will succeed in doing something that Toni Kukoc, George Lynch and Matt Harpring couldn't — convincing Allen Iverson to pass him the ball? And what about Mutombo? Does anyone believe that the famous New Jersey fresh air is really going to shave a decade off Mount Methuselah? Shaq tossed him around like a Caesar salad in 2001. All of that finger wagging didn't stop Shaq from averaging 33 points per game.

Still, you have to believe the Nets took a step forward, not because of Mutombo, but because they found a way to create more minutes for Richard Jefferson. Jefferson is the real deal folks. He's athletic, but smart. He's explosive, but sticks on defense like fly paper. He was brilliant playing point forward at the Shaw Summer League. His jumper is improving and his work ethic is unquestioned. He's the anti-Van Horn, and with the increased minutes and shot attempts, his stats should soar.

Still, the Nets still need to add a solid three-point shooter to the mix. That's where losing Van Horn hurts. He was their only consistent long-range threat. The team still has most of its mid-level exception, so don't be surprised if it gets serious about bringing free agent Rodney Rogers into the mix. Rogers' versatility will allow the Nets flexibility in putting a dangerous team on the floor.

Financially, the trade was basically a wash. Mutombo has three years, $54 million left on his contract. Van Horn has four years and $55 million left on his. MacCulloch is owed $29.5 million over the next five years.

Will the Sixers settle down now and go with this new, revamped roster? With Larry Brown, you never know. The Sixers wouldn't mind moving Derrick Coleman if they could get a younger, more athletic power forward in return. Why would anyone make such a trade? Coleman has the magic contract; he's in the last year of his deal. The Heat have been quietly dangling Brian Grant all summer. Would the Heat agree to a Coleman-for-Grant swap? It's not out of the question. Grabbing Coleman now would give the Heat the cap flexibility they're looking for next summer and give the Sixers a solid low-post presence to replace Mutombo.

Sixers add scoring and subtract a big salary

Stephen A. Smith / Philadelphia Inquirer

There's No Loss With Jefferson on the Roster

Shaun Powell / Newsday

Larry Brown knows the score

John Smallwood / Philadelphia Daily News

Sizing up Mutombo

Mitch Lawrence / New York Daily News

What's holding up Van Exel to the Knicks?

The Knicks and Mavs have been talking, on and off, about a Nick Van Exel-for-Kurt Thomas-and-Charlie Ward swap since before the draft. What's the holdup?

The New York Times has an interesting story today claiming that the Mavs would be willing to take Thomas and Ward for Van Exel, but Knicks president Scott Layden is reluctant to pull the trigger until he finds a starting-caliber center to replace Thomas.

According to the Times, Layden will soon begin searching for a third team that could supply the Knicks with a center in the trade. At one point, there was talk of the Knicks taking back Shawn Bradley as part of the deal. But given Bradley's miserable year last season, it's hard to dub him a "starting caliber" center. The Knicks could work out an agreement with the Mavs that would include guarantees that Dallas wouldn't match a mid-level offer for restricted free agent ZhiZhi Wang, but again, it isn't clear that he's the answer in the middle either.

The Knicks could make a run at the one big man with big potential — Keon Clark — but they may be too late. A league source told Insider late Tuesday night that the Kings are getting close to signing Clark to a long term deal.

The Knicks would probably be better off swapping for Van Exel and just making do until next season. If Clark is off the market, the Knicks will be stuck with a hodgepodge of marginal centers, including Michael Doleac, Dean Garrett and Kevin Willis. Pick one or two of them up for the minimum and let it be.

Trade for Van Exel Not Easy for Knicks

Chris Broussard / New York Times

Heat tell free agents it's one and done

Pat Riley spoke with the media for the first time since the draft Tuesday. While there weren't any major revelations, Riley did give some insight into what the team is trying to do this summer.

Riley said that while the team remains a player on the free-agent market, he's only looking to give one-year deals. That may, in the end, scuttle the team's attempts to lure Rod Strickland back for another season. Strickland is seeking a multi-year deal.

"We had the third-best record in the league over the past six years, as much as a contender as anybody else, but we didn't show the results," Riley told the Sun Sentinel. "Part of our plan is to have a year to start over if we choose to. I'm not saying next year will be that way but we'll have two flexible things going for us to determine our direction. We'll be under the cap and under the tax. . . We're not looking to give multiple years right now. We probably made a couple of mistakes in the past, costing us flexibility."

Riley's problem is that his team hasn't cleared enough room to make a run at a top-flight free agent like Tim Duncan or Jason Kidd. Right now the Heat sit at about $6.5 million under the cap for next season. Unless the team finds a way to move either Brian Grant or Eddie Jones, it probably won't be able to clear enough cap room to make a serious run.

The team did re-sign free-agent center Vladimir Stephania to a one-year contract for the minimum.

Stepania signs for backup role

Harvey Fialkov / South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Riley says Heat still seeks solutions at point guard

Barry Jackson / Miami Herald

Peep Show

Cavs: Coach John Lucas met Monday night in Houston with Lamar Holt, the agent for Damon Jones, a free-agent point guard. Today, Lucas will meet with Jones in Houston. The Cavs desperately need a point guard to replace the departed Andre Miller. But Lucas said they are at least two weeks away from making a decision. "I'm taking my time because this is a big hole for us," Lucas told the Akron Beacon Journal. One possible snag could be Jones' desire for a multi-year deal. The Cavs would prefer to hand out a one-year contract. "The most important thing for me is years," said Jones, who has played for six teams in four years, including last season with Detroit. "I'm tired of moving around every year."

Grizzlies: Pau Gasol suffered a strained left quad recently while practicing with his national team. The Grizzlies confirmed the injury Tuesday, adding that Gasol would likely be sidelined for two weeks, the Memphis Commercial Appeal reported. The injury is not expected to keep Gasol from representing Spain in the World Championships later this month at Indianapolis.

Sonics: Mark Cuban is flirting with Rashard Lewis and Sonics president Wally Walker doesn't like it. Walker shot back at Cuban Tuesday after Cuban said that the Mavs' offer of three years for $15 million is close to the Sonics' offer of seven years, $60 million, at least for the first three years. "It's curious that Mark didn't mention the difference in our offer in years four through seven of the contract," Walker said. "Particularly as it relates to a player like Tim Hardaway, who gets traded from Dallas, or a player like Greg Buckner, who doesn't get re-signed. Let's run those numbers after tax." . . . Prep star Lenny Cooke is in Seattle working out with the Sonics. Cooke, who went undrafted in June, will compete for a roster spot that likely would guarantee him a one-year deal. "He will stay here and work out every day, which will be good for him," Sonics GM Rick Sund told the Seattle Times. "Our coaches are putting him through shooting drills and conditioning drills to get him up to speed."

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[cyman3]

This is all possible:

1)Next year, SPURS dont have TIM DUNCAN

2)Mutombo could be traded again esp with his ATTRACTIVE contract (only 1 or 2 years left)

3)Kidd could be playing on another team

4)Jazz could be under the cap even with OSTERTAG still on the team (if Karl + John retires)

5)Nuggets have a bright future but a POOR PRESENT. Top $$$ maker is CAMBY around $6-7 Million. They have MUCH MONEY to go after big names...

6)Sonics could be under the cap w/o Payton

big things can happen in couple of years...

[Hawksfreak]

Tim Duncan is probably going to Orlando.

[DJ_Money]

Not for $5 million, he isn't.

I'm fairly certain the Duncan will stay in San Antonio. I don't know about them being able to lure Kidd down there.

Duncan and Parker are a good start. Looks like there will be plenty of big men available, can you imagine Duncan and J. O'Neal or Duncan and 'Zo together?

What about another guard? Smitty doesn't have long left. Stackhouse or Wally won't be bad choices.

Damn, doesn't the future look bright in SA?