Hey Lascar... It's not fixed... Ask a PTL fan

[DrReality]

Golden showers!!!

[Diesel]

I don't think those odds can be right...

It doesn't take into consideration how many balls are missing.

For instance, it automatically gives a 21.5% chance for PTL to get the 2 pick.

However, if one of Utah's 2 balls would have won the first place in the lottery, I think that PTL would still have around a 25% chance to win the lottery.

Not to mention going from pick to pick with only the top teams moving.

[DrReality]

But a case could be made to support the conspiracy theory that Toronto has been in trouble since the fiasco with Vince Carter. The franchise has had the image that no wants to play there. They have been struggling longer than Portland.

I'm happy for the Raptors.

[Diesel]

Dude, PTL's GM was MAD!!!!!

It was funny. He turned red and looked like he wanted to cuss!!!

[shock]

Best Friends Forever

[CBAreject]

Lascar, you're right about this filtering Diesel thing. I can't understand this thread because I can't see his posts. I do want to read this one because it's clear that Diesel is misunderstanding some math in this thread, and I think that's delicious. So typical...."Duh, probability?" Seeing him made a fool of is hardly worth it, though. I'll stick to filter mode.

Anyway, I've gathered that he doesn't understand how the Blazers fell to their most likely spot. Nice. Enjoy battling with him. I also saw that drzachary quoted him with "you were unmissed reject" or some crap. WTF is he talking to me? I can't read his posts. I only see his brain puke quoted in other people's threads. What a tard.

[Catapult]

The odds presented are the combined probabilities of all possible outcomes weighted by their individual probability.

Case probability for Blazers to get 2nd pick:

-Bulls (with 199 combinations = 19,9% probability) wins the 1st pick.

-Bulls' combinations are removed, so there would be 801 combinations left.

-Blazers have 250 combinations.

-probability for the Blazers to win the second pick in case Bulls won the first pick is 250/801=31,2%

-combining the probabilities Bulls-1st and Blazers-2nd = 19,9% * 31,2% = 6,2%

- repeat the calculation for 12 other lottery teams by replacing the Bulls' 1st pick probability with each teams probability to win the 1st pick (like 8,8% for Raptors)

- Sum the combined probabilities

- The sum of all the possible combinations where Team X picks first and Blazers pick second (where X is any other lottery team than Blazers) is... 21,4759587%, rounded to 3 decimals = 0.215

So YES the numbers take into consideration the "missing" balls.

[Diesel]

But knowing exactly what teams moved up from 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and how many balls exactly... should give a more accurate probability... right? It seems that the numbers given couldn't have taken into account accurately the true probability.

It seems more like an average probability than an accurate probability?

[AHF]

Quote:

---

But knowing exactly what teams moved up from 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and how many balls exactly... should give a more accurate probability... right? It seems that the numbers given couldn't have taken into account accurately the true probability.

It seems more like an average probability than an accurate probability?

---

It is a perfectly accurate probability. Once a team gets the top pick you must recalibrate to have perfectly accurate probability for the 2nd and 3rd picks, etc. because the total range of possibilities has changed from before the draft started.

It is not accurate to describe the 36% probability as anything less than 100% accurate for a pre-draft probability.

[Nicholasp27]

This thread was so predictable

No matter what happened, Diesel would have had a conspiracy for it

example: The ordering doesn't change as it falls perfectly in line with the record

Diesel: "Since this is a weak draft with no star and nobody that needed a boost up to #1, Stern had it do this in order to silence us truth-seekers! RIGGED!"

[Diesel]

I'm talking about the post draft probability though...

With the teams that moved up and out know, you should be able to get a more accurate number... What we're looking at is an average... without knowing the exact numbers.

[Diesel]

What, can you not read??

I mean, this has got to be your most stupidest post yet Master of the obvious..

I ask Lascar about the draft lottery being fixed and you chime in that this was the most predictable thread??

Damn...

What did you expect??? A discussion on the luxuries found on the Gulfstream G550??

Wow...

[Lascar78]

You're not looking at an average, you're looking at exact numbers:

-THE ODDS THAT PORTLAND WOULD FINISH AT #1 IN THE 2006 NBA DRAFT WERE EXACTLY 25%

-THE ODDS THAT PORTLAND WOULD FINISH AT #2 IN THE 2006 NBA DRAFT WERE EXACTLY 21.5%

-THE ODDS THAT PORTLAND WOULD FINISH AT #3 IN THE 2006 NBA DRAFT WERE EXACTLY 17.7%

-THE ODDS THAT PORTLAND WOULD FINISH AT #4 IN THE 2006 NBA DRAFT WERE EXACTLY 35.8%

Notice how they add up to 100%? Those were the exact odds that they would end up at the 4 positions, with everything taken into account. No averages involved. They are the precise odds that portland would get each spot. #4 was the most likely for them. Which is why I told you we were technically lucky to get #2 last year.

If you want to look at the partial odds, they are much less meaningful but they would be:

-THE ODDS THAT PORTLAND WOULD FINISH AT #1 IN THE 2006 NBA DRAFT WERE EXACTLY 25%. THEY DID NOT GET THAT LUCKY.

-THE ODDS THAT PORTLAND WOULD GET THE #2 PICK GIVEN THAT TORONTO GOT THE #1 WERE EXACTLY 27.4%. THEY DID NOT GET THAT LUCKY.

-THE ODDS THAT PORTLAND WOULD GET THE #3 PICK GIVEN THAT TORONTO-CHICAGO GOT THE #1-#2 WERE EXACTLY 35%. THEY DID NOT GET THAT LUCKY. THEY THEREFORE AUTOMATICALLY GOT THE #4.

[AHF]

Quote:

---

If you want to look at the partial odds:

-THE ODDS THAT PORTLAND WOULD FINISH AT #1 IN THE 2006 NBA DRAFT WERE EXACTLY 25%. THEY DID NOT GET THAT LUCKY.

-THE ODDS THAT PORTLAND WOULD GET THE #2 PICK GIVEN THAT TORONTO GOT THE #1 WERE EXACTLY 27.4%. THEY DID NOT GET THAT LUCKY.

-THE ODDS THAT PORTLAND WOULD GET THE #3 PICK GIVEN THAT TORONTO-CHICAGO GOT THE #1-#2 WERE EXACTLY 35%. THEY DID NOT GET THAT LUCKY. THEY THEREFORE AUTOMATICALLY GOT THE #4.

---

This is very basic math but looking at it from the opposite angle:

The "post draft" exact odds of not getting each pick in the draft for Portland were:

1 - 75% chance would not get it

2 - 72.6% chance would not get it

3 - 65% chance would not get it

4 - 0% chance would not get it

[Lascar78]

Quote:

---

Lascar, you're right about this filtering Diesel thing. I can't understand this thread because I can't see his posts. I do want to read this one because it's clear that Diesel is misunderstanding some math in this thread, and I think that's delicious. So typical...."Duh, probability?" Seeing him made a fool of is hardly worth it, though. I'll stick to filter mode.

Anyway, I've gathered that he doesn't understand how the Blazers fell to their most likely spot. Nice. Enjoy battling with him. I also saw that drzachary quoted him with "you were unmissed reject" or some crap. WTF is he talking to me? I can't read his posts. I only see his brain puke quoted in other people's threads. What a tard.

---

Yeah you pretty much got the gist. Here are some Diesel lowlights from this thread:

PTL gets screwed!!!

What was the mathematical probability that PTL picks 4th?

--------------

(to you)

How mighty good of the coward to return...

You were unmissed reject!

--------------

How do you get 36% chance of getting 4th??

Show me the math!

--------------

I don't think those odds can be right...

It doesn't take into consideration how many balls are missing.

For instance, it automatically gives a 21.5% chance for PTL to get the 2 pick.

However, if one of Utah's 2 balls would have won the first place in the lottery, I think that PTL would still have around a 25% chance to win the lottery.

Not to mention going from pick to pick with only the top teams moving.

----------------------

But knowing exactly what teams moved up from 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and how many balls exactly... should give a more accurate probability... right? It seems that the numbers given couldn't have taken into account accurately the true probability.

It seems more like an average probability than an accurate probability?

-----------------------

I'm talking about the post draft probability though...

With the teams that moved up and out know, you should be able to get a more accurate number... What we're looking at is an average... without knowing the exact numbers.

-----------------------

(to nicholas)

What, can you not read??

I mean, this has got to be your most stupidest post yet Master of the obvious..

I ask Lascar about the draft lottery being fixed and you chime in that this was the most predictable thread??

[Lascar78]

exactly

[exodus]

You might as well try to teach an elephant to roller skate.

[Diesel]

How could any of the numbers you put second or third be exact when you don't have any clue as to who moved...

There are 1000 combinations available.

if you have 250 combinations...

And the team that MOVES UP only had 2 combinations.

How is it possible that you now have ONLY a 21.5% chance of getting the next place...

That's complete silliness for you to even consider those AVERAGED NUMBERS exact...

[Diesel]

According to your numbers...

PTL had a 12.6% chance to get 4th in the scenerio that really happened.

12.6% is the exact probability... NOT the 37% percent that was averaged before the draft.

Damn...

And you tried to claim that this was LESS MEANINGFUL...

Trying hard to be right huh??

F--- Facts... right?

[Lascar78]

you continue to show your cluelessness when it comes to statistics. I'm not wasting any more time.