Bust Rule 101, Shelden qualifies

[Final_quest]

I feel bad taking this from a troll on Real GM, but I'm interested at getting some responses.

Rule 101:

- Never ever draft a bulky undersized center or power forward that is 6-9" or smaller that plays with his back to the basket. Never draft one because of the stats the player has gotten over 3 or 4 years in the NCAA. Never draft one of these players if they are on a well recognized national program.(This is almost prophecy now in scouting that player will not succeed in the NBA. )

* Now there are a couple exception a player can be 6-9" power foward but

- # 1. If a player has some good face up moves from outside the paint, a consistent outside jumper that can be developed, the obvious ability to play outside also

- # 2. If the player has extreme dunking ability, fluid moves, or tenacity and that doesn't mean good it means extreme for their size. I highlited those players in BLUE because they are not solely relying on basket scoring with their backs to it. Also make jumpshots outside the key.

HERE IS THE OFFICIAL RULE: 101 BUST PICKS for the last 20 years

1985 - Wayman Tisdale - (2nd overall pick Indiana Pacers), 6-9"after an incredible ride in the NCAA scoring over 50points one game and absolutely dominating the collegiate ranks he was a very average at best player in the NBA.. Because they had never heard of rule 101 they passed on Karl Malone, Xavier McDaniel, Chris Mullen, Detleft Shrempf, and Joe Dumars

1987 - Armon Gilliam - 6-9" led the UNLV Running Rebels but went from stellar to cellar in the NBA. (#2 overall pick Phx) Mark Alarie of Duke was also drafted #19 same type player. My first rebound my freshman year came over him.

1989 - Danny Ferry - 6-9" was known as Dukes goto guy, but was scrutinized for years for not living up to expectations. (#2 overall Clippers) Missed out on Sean Elliott, Glen Rice, Tim Hardaway, and Shawn Kemp.

1989 - JR Reid 6-9" was a bust from the day he was drafted. (#9 Charlotte Hornets)

1991 - Larry Johnson - 1st pick doesn't count because he falls into the athletic as hell category.(charlotte Hornets #1) Exception Rule

1995 - Ed Obannon - 6-8" 9th pick was his most succesful on the inside, he had a knee that kept him from being a superior athlete. (#9 pick NJ Nets) Ed wasn't the only player that had rule 101 with him so did Corliss Willamson, Alan Henderson, and Mario Bennett

1997 -- Danny Fortson (10th - Milw.), Maurice Taylor (14th,Clippers) John Thomas(25th, NYKnicks)

1998 - Robert Tractor Traylor - 6-8" dominate force in the middle while in college transition in the NBA never came. (6th pick Dallas Mavericks), Pat Garrity 6-8"(#19,Milwaukee) had an outside game but wasnt very fluid.

1998 - exception Al Harrington 6-9" ( #25 Indiana)didn't play college ball as a PF he came straight to the pros and they developed his game as a face up player. It took a few years but the NBA teams were very patient.

1999 - Elton Brand - 6-8" Dominate player at Duke and the one player that is the exception to the rule. (Bulls #1 overall) Mirsad Turkcan (18th, Rockets), Elton Brand was almost an exception because I deemed him to have extreme tenacity, but when I remembered he played for Duke I went ahead and proclaimed him referee pampered, stat padded, and yes another mediocre to bust pick.

2000 - Kenyon Martin 6-9" doesn't fall into the category due to his incredible athleticism.

2000 - Marcus Fizer 6-8" If you ever saw this guy in real life you might think he was a football player. Even so he is already fighting to stay in the league. (#4 Pick = Chicago Bulls)

2001 - Shane Battier 6-9" is almost athletic enough not be in this but when you realize he is from Duke that is the third strike. (#6 Memphis) (19th overall Portland) Zach Randolph did beat the odds like Elton Brand is at least considered solid.

2002 - Chris Wilcox, and Amare Stoudemire 6-9" Extremely fluid and athletic, Dunking Maniacs doesn't count (8th,9th pick clippers and Phx)

2003 - Michael Sweetney 6-8" he has only been in the league for 3 years but lets bet he will be a bust for being a lottery pick (9th overall NY Knicks) . We had better not forget about Nick Collison 6-9" PF Kansas (12th pick Seattle)

2004 - There were no High picks, but notables that will never be more than average or possibly immediate bust. Kris Humphries 6-9 did develop a small part of his game to facing the basket. Al Jefferson is 6-10 but came straight out of high school normally that would make him an exception, but he is trying to back players down in the nba. So we will label him also mediocre - bust

2005 - Ike Diogu 6-9" I don't think after 20 years of this Im out too far on a limb in saying he will be average at best. (9th overall Golden State).. I don't want to be too hard on this injured player but Sean May 6-9" (13th pick Charlotte) played a lot with his back to the basket so 2 from 2005. Jason Maxiel 6-8" (#26 pick Detroit) Wayne Simien (#27pick Miami), David Lee (#30 New York is almost athletic enough to not be in here)

2006 - Shelden Williams 6-9" (#5 pick Atlanta)The funny thing about this draft pick is these guys wouldn't even look at another player in the draft. This draft may have been the hardest to judge 1-10 in the last 20 years, but Atlantas management told the world they had no interest in any other players like Randy Foye, Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy, Ronnie Brewer, and many more. Before the season even begins let me say great college career but mediocre at best. In the 2nd round 6-9" or smaller players Craig Smith, Alexander Johnson, and Leon Powe were also drafted in this draft and will probably join the ranks of history for first round bust.

2006 possible exceptions - Shawne Williams 6-9" (pick #17 Indiana)played a power forward for a year at Memphis but he drifted outside for 3point shots, He actually has a few good face up moves but no doubt about it he could fall into this if category if Indiana uses him as a power forward or center. He was also a guard in High School

2006 exception - Tyrus Thomas has shown he is an ultra athletic player, that can hit an outside shot. This type of player is ok to draft in the lottery.

*So the fun part if your not in Atlanta or hear that Indiana wants to use Shawne as a PF, is to look at next years 2007 rookie prospects and just know theres 20+ years of proof in this story to back what I mean.

[Johnnybravo4]

That is the stupidest article I have ever read.

Wilcox

Brand

Amare

Battier are busts?

And some are busts because they went to Duke? Just idiotic.

[mrhonline]

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That is the stupidest article I have ever read.

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Quoted for truth.

The guy hasn't played an NBA game yet, folks. Lay off.

[pimp]

you might wanna add "The Shaq OF The Mac" Gary Trent to your list

[joannes3000]

I thought he was saying that those 4 guys were the exceptions to the rule. And while I don't think Shelden will ever be a major NBA talent like Elton Brand for comparisons sake, I don't think he'll be a bust because he fits OUR need for defense and (hopefully) interior scoring.

[Sothron]

I was about to say, where's Gary Trent? Clarence Weatherspoon?

[Traceman]

had a lot of success. Time will tell on Shelden.

[Final_quest]

No those guys have exceptions due to other factors. The Duke factor is because it is often the case that players on big time programs get drafted based on exposure.

Not saying I agree because he seems to arbitrarily give out exceptions. I think we knew going in that it is rare to find successful short PFs. We're all just hoping Shelden is an exception to the rule.

[jezmund]

I consider Shelden a 'bigger' player than Boozer. Although Boozer might be a little smoother offensively than Shelden, Shelden is bigger, has a more defensive attitude and toughness, and there is no reason Shelden can't improve.

[AHF]

Here is a good example of the inconsistency in analysis in this article:

Shane Battier

(1) What I first like is that this is supposed to be about guys who were power forwards or centers prior to coming into the NBA and he includes Shane Battier on the list who never played anything but SF and wasn't projected to play anything but SF in the NBA. Why is he in this discussion?

(2) If he is in the discussion he clearly meets the writer's exception to the bust rule given his ability to play on the perimeter. (So does Pat Garrity for that matter). Yet the author doesn't mention this at all.

(3) His college is considered another reason to label him a bust. Shouldn't Duke be considered the source of exceptions to the rule with Brand and Boozer?

(4) He is good enough to be traded for Rudy Gay & Stromile Swift this offseason and has a good shot to make the olympic team because of his quality play on both ends of the floor and lack of ego.

[gutz]

Sheldon will be fine! Everyone is just wiggin out here. Time will tell. We have to give him at least next year to determine and probably more. I think he will contribute this year personally. Hopefully like 9pts, 8rb. and 2blks a game

[AHF]

Anybody remember back to the basket Danny Ferry? The guy who did little other than shoot 3 pointers during his career?

The guy took over 100 3pts each of his last two seasons and Duke and he is a labelled a bulky-undersized-back to the basket college PF/C for purposes of trying to up the # of busts that fit his criteria?

This is weak.

[Final_quest]

Perhaps Battier should be left off the list. Still looking at the list it's difficult to say why Shelden will be an exception to this rule.

[AHF]

The list goes on and on - Ed O'Bannon played SG & SF in the NBA, not PF. Why is he in this dicussion?

Pat Garrity clearly fits the exception to the rule but isn't excluded under this because it didn't meet the poster's desired conclusion.

Same for John Thomas.

Al Jefferson is a bust two years out of high school, lol. I guess Jermaine ONeal was a bust too?

David Lee clearly meets the athleticism requirement but that is ignored because it doesn't serve the point the writer wanted to make - not to mention he is now including guys who were the last picks in the first round just to boost his #s.

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If the guy wants to go back to the 80s why no mention of:

#3 pick - Buck Williams, 6'8'' PF/C - Multiple All-Star, averaged a double double for his career.

Tom Chambers - 6'9'' PF - 4 Time All-Star (maybe the athleticism exception?)

#2 pick - Terry Cumming, 6'9'' PF - Multiple All-Star

Antoine Carr - 6'9'' F - Peaked at 20 ppg

Otis Thrope - 6'9'' PF/C - All-Star

Michael Cage - 6'9'' C - Peaked at 14.5 ppg, 13.0 rpg

Waymond Tisdale - Not a bust. The guy averaged 15+ ppg over over ten years. Not the best player in the world but much better than the 7 footer that went directly after him, for example.

Charles Oakley - 6'8'' PF - All-Star. LMAO that he doesn't get mentioned in the article. Is there a better prototype for the 6'9'' or under bruiser?

Karl Malone - 6'9'' PF - HOF. Had no perimeter game when he came out of college. Guess he was destined to be a bust.

AC Green - 6'9'' PF - All-Star, 15 year career.

* * * *

That was for the 81-85 drafts. I am not bothering to go any further when we have 6 different All-Stars and one hall of famer already in the conversation. All the RealGM poster provided was an anecdotal list of busts who fit a

certain profile. I could give you the same thing for ultra-athletic, non-skilled players or for perimeter shooting big men, etc.

This doesn't mean much to me.

[TexasPete]

Shelden suffers from a lack of athleticism that will cap his upside. He needs an identity on offense badly. The kid doesn't have any low block moves. He just overpowered lesser foes in college. He can't do that anymore.

I hope that he can develop a reliable 15-18 foot face up jumper because he will need it. I have low expectations for him. If he can become a solid role player like Chill I will be happy. But if you can't see the similarities between SW and a bust...you either choose to support the administration or you are a blind optimist. Randy Foye should have been our pick. Billy Knight is an eccentric GM to say the least. If we somehow win the lottery next year I'm hoping that he doesn't bypass Oden. He looks at players so much differently than others I would sweat that one out until its done.

[exodus]

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That was for the 81-85 drafts.

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lol. Someone should copy your post and paste it on RealGM. Looks like the guy needs a history lesson.

[Traceman]

that either of them will be better than Shelden, particularly when you look at it in the context of what each of them would do for our team.

I liked Roy best but the reality is that if we had taken him, either he or Joe would have had to play a lot of PG and both are more SG than PG. It COULD have worked but it might not have.

I liked Foye too but can he play PG? I THINK he and Joe could have played together but what if they couldn't? Foye could turn out great but what if he is the next Rumeal Robinson?

As for Shelden, no question he brings what I think this team lacked most last year - inside toughness. I would have PREFERRED to get that toughness from a 7 foot plus true Center but none were available that warranted a top 5 pick. BK has gambled that Shelden will be able to overcome his lack of height and be an effective inside presence. Time will tell if he was right.

Bottom line, there was no perfect fit available to us at 5. We needed a true PG or a true Center but no player worth the #5 pick was available at the spot. I don't know if Shelden will pan out or not but Roy or Foye may not have panned out here either.

[AHF]

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That was for the 81-85 drafts.

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lol. Someone should copy your post and paste it on RealGM. Looks like the guy needs a history lesson.

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I tried and didn't find the post on the Draft or Atlanta boards - probably not worth the time anyway.

[Johnnybravo4]

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Shelden suffers from a lack of athleticism that will cap his upside. He needs an identity on offense badly. The kid doesn't have any low block moves. He just overpowered lesser foes in college. He can't do that anymore.

I hope that he can develop a reliable 15-18 foot face up jumper because he will need it. I have low expectations for him. If he can become a solid role player like Chill I will be happy. But if you can't see the similarities between SW and a bust...you either choose to support the administration or you are a blind optimist. Randy Foye should have been our pick. Billy Knight is an eccentric GM to say the least. If we somehow win the lottery next year I'm hoping that he doesn't bypass Oden. He looks at players so much differently than others I would sweat that one out until its done.

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Foye is not a point guard nor a defensive big, which were our two biggest needs.

[Duff_Man]

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you might wanna add "The Shaq OF The Mac" Gary Trent to your list

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I have stood next to Gary...if he is 6'9", I am 6'1"...my doctor says I am 5'7".