Josh Smith= BK standing firm? Scared of a mistake

[BBallPrincess]

Could the fate of Josh Smith be the reason Billy Knight is being so careful as to what he is doing this time around?

I mean they are going to have to pick up his option right? Wouldn't you? For one, they will have to pick up his option, because if they let him go into free agency without an option (couldn't be that crazy, could they?) anyone and can and will offer him crazy buck....Right?

As for him staying in the home town, atl is going to have to come up with a great dollar amount, right?

So here is the question that I pose. What moves are BK and family going to have to make in order to have enough to improve this team, and be able to keep his young stars. With the answer to that question maybe it will shed light into what he's looking to do over the next couple of years....

[CBAreject]

If the "young stars" actually become stars, we won't need to make any major moves. If they don't, we shouldn't be paying big bucks to keep them. Problem solved.

If MWill/Smoove become an All-Star and semi-star forwards, we will be a playoff team with an All-Star SG in JJ and a solid point in Speedy.

[BBallPrincess]

Quote:

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If the "young stars" actually become stars, we won't need to make any major moves. If they don't, we shouldn't be paying big bucks to keep them. Problem solved.

If MWill/Smoove become an All-Star and semi-star forwards, we will be a playoff team with an All-Star SG in JJ and a solid point in Speedy.

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Let me stand corrected, young stars in their own right on the hawks team. Not NBA wide...

[CBAreject]

I'm not correcting you. You are fine.

[exodus]

The Hawks still need a legit starting center even if the young guys do become stars.

[er9dverk]

that is true. but it doesnt have to be a superstar. dallas came real close to the trophy last year with damp and diop.

[CBAreject]

I'm not saying we don't need a center. I'm saying we'd be a winning team without a great one.

The question was what would we need to do to be a winning team so the young stars want to stay. I think if Marv/Josh improve substantially, we'll be a playoff team in the East without another addition. Then they'd want to stay.

I don't think we'll be a championship contender without a big man, but that's a different question.

[chillzatl]

picking up his option is nothing. He doesn't make that much. his next contract will depend on how much he improves over the next two seasons. He dropped as far as he did in the draft because GM's aren't excited little fans who see how high a guy can jump and nothing else. He had and has lots of things he has to work on before he's going to get a BIG contract. It will be obvious at the end of his contract what he is worth. If his talent dictates it, I'm sure we'll find a way to make him an offer.

[exodus]

My opinion is that the Hawks have to keep Smith and Marvin.

JJ is the only star on the team and Smith/Marvin are the only other players with a chance to be stars. They are just going to have to pay both and accomodate them in the lineup the best way they can.

[Final_quest]

Quote:

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If the "young stars" actually become stars, we won't need to make any major moves. If they don't, we shouldn't be paying big bucks to keep them. Problem solved.

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I think this is one of the biggest dilemmas facing our team. I wish it was as simple as you are making it out to be, but in reality it isn't.

The situation is similar to the Jon Koncack trap. The Pistons made an outrageous offer to Koncack before we were sure what kind of player he would become. They forced our hand. Don't you think we could be facing a similar problem with any of our young players?

[thesheedera]

I would add the caveat that they have to keep Marvin and Smith unless they can get an All Star in return for whatever package we trade.

But my guess is these guys are here long term.

[AtLaS]

Thats why we need to get him locked up in a contract before other teams have a chance to make him a big offer, like extend him after next season. Don't give him a chance to show some signs and some team go nuts for him, and force us to make a huge decision.

That's exactly what happened to Phoenix and JJ, JJ wanted 45 mil over 6 years or something like that and they could have locked him up, but Phoenix wouldn't give it to him, then the next year the Hawks were offering the max.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I'm not worried at all about either of these guys leaving.

For one, the Hawks own the Bird Rights to each player, so if we wanted to, we can go over the cap and even into Luxury Tax land to keep them . . if we're a playoff team.

Second, we don't have to worry about Marvin until the summer of 2010. I'm sure he'll pretty much show what he's about by then. He'll either be a decent starter . . or a superstar type player.

Third, the Hawks should be in no hurry to sign Josh Smith to any long term contract. Let the kid show if he can really elevate his game on a consistent basis. If he can, then pay the man. If he can't, he'll be treated like a young Al Harrington, and earn somewhere around 6 - 8 million on his next deal.

This core players on this team is pretty much set in stone for at least the next 2 seasons.

Let all of this play out, before we decide to start trading people or giving people boatloads of money.

[bird_dirt]

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that is true. but it doesnt have to be a superstar. dallas came real close to the trophy last year with damp and diop.

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oh yeah, that and 7' dirk who avery finally got to play in the paint and set a record for free throws. if we had nowitzki, i'd probably feel pretty good about zaza and lo wright as our centers, too.

[CBAreject]

I think it is pretty simple. If they're not star quality, we won't even be a playoff team. JJ isn't good enough to put us in the playoffs by himself.

We are counting on MW and JS improving with the optimistic playoff talk for this year. While I don't see us in the playoffs just yet, I do the following year. It's still because of the improvement of JS/MW. If they don't show major improvement, we won't be a playoff team at all. When they become FA's, we will be looking to trade them to blow this thing up and start over.

I know it's awful thinking about rebuilding again, but it happens to lots of teams. Memphis/Vancouver built around SAR/Bibby/Dickerson/Country. When that core failed to get it done, they had to blow it up and rebuild again. Yes, they got big contracts, but the structure was different then. If they'd had 5 years to evaluate that core, they wouldn't have shelled out that cash.

[bird_dirt]

yep. if we pick up jsmith's option, we'll have a couple more years to evaluate josh and marvin both individually and together as players. two more years should be plenty time to see if one or the other steps it up significantly. if one does, we focus on him. if both do, and do it well together, we should be glad that we have such a problem to deal with. if neither do then, well, would jerry west be available again in a couple years (just kidding)?

i agree with the playoff senerio. i'd be surprised if we made it this year--we don't even have one player that was an all-star last year (jj got kinda close, but snubbed, right?) and you generally need at least two all-star caliber players. i'd be surprised if we didn't in the following year, however, given how much mw and js SHOULD develop.

[CBAreject]

I believe 2 All-Star caliber players are neccessary for a championship run, but less is required for a playoff appearance. Generally, just 1 All-Star will do if he has just average starters at the other 4 positions. Milwaukee had that situation last year. Even Dallas only had 1 All-Star. 1 All-Star and 2 semi-star players is enough to get to the conference or NBA Finals in many cases.