Offseason: Here's what we are looking at.

[KB21]

Outside of a possible ownership change, a possible change in the management on the team, and yet another coaching change, this is what the Hawks have personnel wise going into the offseason:

Seven players are under contract for the 2003-2004 season:

1. Dan Dickau PG

2. Glenn Robinson SF

3. Chris Crawford SF

4. Shareef Abdur-Rahim PF

5. Alan Henderson PF

6. Theo Ratliff C

7. Nazr Mohammed C

These players count for $50,903,637 in payroll.

The Hawks have two restricted free agents:

1. Jason Terry PG

2. Dion Glover SG

The qualifying offer to retain the right to match any offer JT gets is $2,933,658. That number, which JT will at the very least get from the Hawks, brings the Hawks payroll to $53,837,295. The qualifying offer to Dion Glover is $2,270,320, which I'm not expecting Dion to get.

The Hawks have 5 unrestricted free agents:

1. DerMarr Johnson SG

2. Ira Newble SF

3. Emanuel Davis PG

4. Jermaine Jackson PG

5. Darvin Ham PF

Of these players, the only one I expect to return is DerMarr Johnson. That's because he will likely only get a minimum deal for a year to prove that he is fully recovered from his injury, and since he's not an older vet, his minimum won't be as much.

Counting the likely resignings of Terry and Johnson, this gives the Hawks 9 players. They will have to fill three more roster spots. They will have a $4.5 million exception, of which they can use part of or all. The chances of the Hawks using all of that exception is slim, IMO.

So, we are looking at a roster of:

PGs - Jason Terry and Dan Dickau

SGs - DerMarr Johnson

SFs - Glenn Robinson and Chris Crawford

PFs - Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Alan Henderson

Cs - Theo Ratliff and Nazr Mohammed

Add in a potential MCE player, which could be one of our own free agents (Newble, Jackson, Glover, or Ham), that will leave two roster spots open. One will be the Hawks first round pick, and the other will likely go to either the Hawks second round pick or a surprise from the Hawks summer league.

Add all of this in together, and it seems unlikely that we will make much progress at all this offseason. I don't see the Hawks being able to make a significant upgrade at the shooting guard position or along the bench. The chances of the Hawks getting a player who can contribute significantly with their pick from Indiana are slim, IMO, especially in what is considered a very weak draft. Last's year draft was stronger, yet the Hawks pick from the late first round has barely contributed this season.

If things continue on this course, they may not get better until after the 2004-2005 season when the three big contracts come off the books. Conversely, if things are blown up, they still may not get better until sometime after the 2004-2005 season. The question that will be critical to answer for whoever the general manager of this team will be is if this team needs to be blown up now or if they just need to patiently wait for the cap room after the 2004-2005 season. Of the key players under contract, Shareef has the most value and Theo will probably be the easiest to trade.

IMO, whatever improvement the Hawks make next season will have to be carried by their four top players. It certainly doesn't look like they will be able to bring in much help.

[Diesel]

All that seems like good Logic... however, I got one word that describes what Pete and the boys will do...

TRADE.

Nothing minor... But a major trade will come this offseason.

I don't know if it will be a draft day trade unless we can get a pick out the deal.

For instance. If Cleveland goes as low as #4-7 in the draft... Misses out on Labron. I think they'd deal. I think they'd deal Big Z in a trade with their pick. The question is what would we offer?

Theo/JT (SNT)

for

Big Z/Davis/1st.

Why?

Well, they don't trust Big Z's feet (me either). With Boozer, they could use the inside toughness. Finally, I don't think that Davis has made any friends on the court. So that first is their chance to get a legitimate star. Theo/Miles would be a good defensive combo. What we get is room and a first. I would hope they would take Heinrich. He's the best PG in the draft. There's Ford also.... If he comes out.

[Gray Mule]

With the entire season down the drain, we need to look

at what we have and ask, of all the present roster, who

showed the most improvement this season.

Theo Ratliff has come back and should be in the running

for comeback player of the year. He has gone from being

very questionable at the beginning to what we see now,

a very good player.

My vote for most improved goes to Ira Newble. He is

one of the better defenders and continues to show what

he can do there. He has improved greatly on the

offensive end of the court. He is no star player, that's

true, but he has become a much better all around

contributor because of his hard work and determination.

He is my type of player and I would love to have a full

12 man team that brings his type of attitude every game.

Of all the Hawk players, this is the one I would hate to

loose the worst.

[cynic]

I don't think it's mathematically possible for them to pick any lower than 5th, and 5th in itself is EXTREMELY unlikely.

A team cannot move down more than three spots from its league ranking, and that only occurs when three teams behind it jump ahead by winning each of the three lotto spots.

[KB21]

Cleveland can pick no lower than 4th. The lottery only determines the first three picks. Every pick after that is determined by record. Cleveland can pick no lower than fourth and Denver can pick no lower than 5th.

[KB21]

Shareef Abdur-Rahim

22.7 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, 52.9% on FGs

Glenn Robinson

22.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.4 apg, 45.5% on FGs

Jason Terry

16.7 ppg, 8.6 apg, 3.3 topg, 43.9% on FGs

All three players are having their best months of the season in March.

Theo's best month came in February, where he averaged almost 5 blocks per game and shot 57% from the floor. Those numbers fell to 3.4 bpg and 44% from the floor for March.

[cynic]

I mean they *could* pick 5th if they pass Denver. They've 14 wins and Denver has 16.

But, the odds are long on their winning three more games or dropping three spots in the lottery.

The Bulls did drop out of the lottery 2 straight years after finishing with the worst record. They picked Marcus Fizer and Eddy Curry 4th after being the favorites to win the lottery those years.

Were they the worst last year? If they were, they fell to get Jay Williams. They have rotten luck (well, since their championship run, anyway).

[Traceman]

I have been saying for some time that realistically, we are not likely to get a lot better before 05/06 unless our key players that we have now (Reef, Dog, JT, Theo, DJ) get better. We can get better and become a playoff team in the EC if we can get a 2nd ballhandler and some interior toughness next year but unless we get lucky in the draft, I don't think this team is going to significantly change its talent level before 05/06.

If we resign JT and DJ and go out and spend our full MCE next year on a SG who can handle the ball and/or a tough PF/C who can rebound and defend, I will be just fine with that. I'd rather see us do that than to take a risk and make a dumb trade trying to get better too quickly. If we can get a good deal in the off seasn, by all means pull the trigger but don't do anything that ruins our ability to have significant cap room in 05/06.

[mrhonline]

is one player that may become available this summer that may [censored] the Hawks' interests...It's too early to tell.

[mrhonline]

LOL...I think that's the first time I have EVER been censored...should I feel spurned or honored? :>

I was trying to use the word

P

R

I

C

K

as a verb, not a noun.... :>