For those worried about the lack of extensions.

[mrhonline]

I've said several times that I think there's a risk that Childress takes the qualifying offer, but not Josh Smith. For one, Smith's QO ($3.17M) is far below his value ($8-$10M), while Childress' ($4.84M) is much closer ($5-6M). So bear that in mind when evaluating teams that could sign them, because taking the QO puts Childress in a much better spot than Smith. (Plus, it appears there will be loads of teams with cap space to burn in 2009). It'd be a risky move for Childress, but it's still a possibility.

Now, let's break down each team's financial flexibility for next year, specifically their ability to sign Smith or Childress to an offer sheet.

Boston - over the luxury tax; no chance

Charlotte - They're not as flexible as some assume. Okafor's cap hold is $13M, so adding that to the contracts of Richardson, Wallace, Carroll, Morrison, Felton, May, and Dudley puts them at $52M for just eight players. That doesn't include their draft pick which should be at least another $2M, or the cap holds for Brezec ($5.5M) or Herrmann ($2.5M). Factor in their need for a center and similar players on their roster, and I say there's no chance here.

Chicago - The cap hold for Gordon is $13M and for Deng it's $10M. Add that to $48M in guaranteed contracts and the Bulls will be approaching the luxury tax next season. No chance.

Cleveland - They need a PG, not a forward, but even so they're approaching the luxury tax even before re-signing Daniel Gibson. Zero chance.

Dallas - Luxury tax even before re-signing Diop. No chance.

Denver - Luxury tax HELL. Nope

Detroit - They've done an admirable job of staying just below the tax, and will continue to do so. Nada.

Golden State - $9M in cap holds total for Biedrins + Ellis, and Davis' cap hold would be the max ($16M?). It's about one in a million here, and only a fool would let go of Baron Davis to sign Josh Smith when you already have Brandon Wright. Ain't happening.

Houston - Luxury tax. Sorry.

Indiana - See Houston

L.A. Clippers - This one is interested, at least. Maggette will opt out, because his $7M option is barely more than he'd get for the MLE (~$6M), and he'd likely be seen as the piece to put a team over the top. I can see the Clippers letting him go because Thorton is cheaper and younger. I could also see Cassell quickly jumping ship to Denver or similar. Where does that leave the Clippers? It depends on their draft. If they take a PG and renounced Livingston (he's probably going to only get the min. anyway), that leaves them with somewhere in the neighborhood of $7-8M to deal with. That's not enough for Smith, but it does make them an attractive option for Childress, who is from California and would be a nice compliment to an aging Mobley and an offense-only Thorton. Keep an eye on this one.

L.A. Lakers - Unless they get nothing but expirings for Kobe, they're luxury tax material. Nope.

Memphis - It's hard to gauge what they're going to be doing. Stromile Swift could opt out, but that would leave them with little wiggle room under the cap (less than the MLE). Personally, I see them doing one of two things - packaging Swift+Damon or stuff for a veteran to push them into the playoff picture, or waiting things out and continuing to add talent through the draft. They really don't have any needs, except maybe some depth at the 2 and 5 spots, which would be better addressed in the draft or a trade rather than free agency. I see them as a minimal threat, at best.

Miami - Luxury tax. Uh-uh.

Milwaukee - They WILL NOT pay the luxury tax, so not happening.

Minnesota - With Jefferson's cap hold ($7.4M), they're looking at $52M. That doesn't include holds for Telfair, Craig Smith, or their top5 draft pick. They're waiting it out for 2009.

New Jersey - They don't want to pay the luxury tax, so nothing happening here.

New Orleans - $61M in committed salaries. Sorry, they're long-term money is going to Chris Paul.

New York - Ha ha.

Orlando - Don't know the exact numbers on the Jameer extension, but it basically relegates them to the MLE. They'll also have a $4M cap hold for Ariza, a player as valuable to them as Childress would be. If they could arrange a trade for an expiring contract in exchange for Turkoglu, they'd have a shot at Smith, but that's highly unlikely. I put them in the Memphis category.

Philadelphia - I think they're looking at 2009 as well, but that's just my guess. Their GM and coach love Andre Miller, and don't seem interested in trading him. If they did, they'd be a colossal threat to sign Smith because there are several PG's of interest in the draft. There's also the possibility of trading Korver because they have cheaper alternatives and his value is high around the league (i.e., I can see them getting expirings plus a decent pick for him).

As it stands, if they keep Miller (or Korver), and keep the rights to Louis Williams and Shavlik Randolph, they'll have no money to pursue any free agents. And they may, in fact, do just that - draft a PG or PF, and wait it out until 2009. A lot depends on the progression of Louis Williams, IMO.

Phoenix - Luxury tax.

Portland - See "Suns, Phoenix."

Sacramento - They're near the tax even with Artest opting out.

San Antonio - They're right at the cap if you ignore the Finley and Elson cap holds (Horry and Barry likely retire), and I do imagine they'll be some interest in Childress. But with only the MLE to offer, I think Atlanta matches.

Seattle - They're at the cap if you ignore the Swift and West cap holds, but I think they'll re-sign both players, so don't expect them to be players. They do have some moveable contracts, but I don't see them going hard after anyone other than a legit big man while they wait for Durant to develop. Expect them to make some noise in 2009.

Toronto - They're similar to Seattle in that they are over the cap, but have moveable contracts. Minimal threat at this point.

Utah - They do a good job like San Antonio and Detroit at staying under the luxury tax, and already have good players at the forward spots. Childress is not the SG they need. Not much chance here.

Washington - Arenas' cap hold (and subsequent max contract) prevents them from doing anything. Not happening unless they lose their marbles.

[mrhonline]

Josh Smith -->

Legit threat - Philadelphia

Minimal threat - Orlando

Josh Childress -->

Legit threat - L.A. Clippers

Minimal threat - Memphis, San Antonio, Toronto, Utah

--- ---- ----- ---- --- ---- -----

When you realize that the only legit threats to sign the Joshes outright are likely to be worse than the Hawks, and would have to gut some of their veterans to be a threat...

...you can see why the Hawks are waiting this out.

--- ---- ----- ---- --- ---- -----

Now, if someone wants to take the time and detail the teams that are legit S&T possibilities (i.e., have players the Hawks would want in return, aren't in the luxury tax, and are better teams), then I'd say the discussion will get interesting.

[exodus]

Quote:

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I think there's a risk that Childress takes the qualifying offer, but not Josh Smith. For one, Smith's QO ($3.17M) is far below his value ($8-$10M), while Childress' ($4.84M) is much closer ($5-6M).

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Interesting point. never thought of that.

[TexasPete]

Great analysis...of course, it doesn't support the popular opinion around here.

Smith hardly has unlimited options and the players union had no idea that free agency was going to be so restrictive.

There is no reason to pay Smith the max right now because his options are limited. He will only go somewhere else in a JJ type deal where we get a lot back in return. And he isn't going anywhere.

[AnnArborHawk]

Great stuff. Hadn't considered this, but I think you're dead on.

[coachx]

Thanks !

Good info to keep reality in perspective.

[HAWKEYE]

Great job !!!

No reason to hit the "panic" button or the "easy" button.

[gutz]

I pray your right TexasPete. Keep up with the optimism that Smoove is going nowhere. It makes me feel better at least but i'm still worried with this ownership in shambles and no money.

[TheDude]

Excellent breakdown. I'm glad someone here has the skills to do something like that, cuz I sure as hell don't.

Hell, maybe I'll give you my 401k to look at and tell me what to invest in.

[TexasPete]

Is Iggy going somewhere? How about Luol Deng? Ben Gordon? These guys are all unable to come to terms with their teams. I guess the sky is falling for their fans.

Their teams know that the market is tight and as long as they can match a deal they hold the cards. I can assure you that Deng and Iggy will be re-signed after the year...just like Josh Smith.

[Johnnybravo4]

I am glad that you guys can tell the future and read minds of GM's to determine likely need.

[TexasPete]

JB, you'd be a lousy poker player. You'd fold before the cards were dealt.

[Johnnybravo4]

I'm actually pretty good.

[Diesel]

The 1995-1996 Los Angeles Lakers had agood team... Vlade, Magic, Van Exel, Campbell, Peeler, etc..

This team was capped out by the rule back then.

This team cleared out enough money to offer Shaq a 6 year 117 million dollar deal.

Orlando was left looking like Fools.

The reason why is Orlando thought that nobody would have the money to sign Shaq. They felt that Jordan coming back meant nothing; the same with the infighting with Penny. Welp, he bolted. They could have extended him when they went to the championships 1994-1995. However, they felt they would still have leverage the next year, so they concentrated on keeping their championship team together.

[TexasPete]

Why didn't Orlando match Shaq's Laker offer?

[exodus]

Quote:

---

The 1995-1996 Los Angeles Lakers had agood team... Vlade, Magic, Van Exel, Campbell, Peeler, etc..

This team was capped out by the rule back then.

This team cleared out enough money to offer Shaq a 6 year 117 million dollar deal.

Orlando was left looking like Fools.

The reason why is Orlando thought that nobody would have the money to sign Shaq. They felt that Jordan coming back meant nothing; the same with the infighting with Penny. Welp, he bolted. They could have extended him when they went to the championships 1994-1995. However, they felt they would still have leverage the next year, so they concentrated on keeping their championship team together.

---

They didn't have restricted free agency then.

[gsuteke]

Quote:

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Quote:

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The 1995-1996 Los Angeles Lakers had agood team... Vlade, Magic, Van Exel, Campbell, Peeler, etc..

This team was capped out by the rule back then.

This team cleared out enough money to offer Shaq a 6 year 117 million dollar deal.

Orlando was left looking like Fools.

The reason why is Orlando thought that nobody would have the money to sign Shaq. They felt that Jordan coming back meant nothing; the same with the infighting with Penny. Welp, he bolted. They could have extended him when they went to the championships 1994-1995. However, they felt they would still have leverage the next year, so they concentrated on keeping their championship team together.

---

They didn't have restricted free agency then.

---

Are you accusing Diesel of attempting to mislead people?

[exodus]

Quote:

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Are you accusing Diesel of attempting to mislead people?

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You know i would never do any such thing.

[TexasPete]

I'm shocked he hasn't responded. I love it when people throw out totally different situations and then act like their the same.

The free agent rules now are extremely restrictive for the players. The market will set Smith's value after the year and if he has a problem at the end of the year he can sit next to Varajeo...although I highly doubt it comes to that.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Quote:

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I'm shocked he hasn't responded. I love it when people throw out totally different situations and then act like their the same.

The free agent rules now are extremely restrictive for the players. The market will set Smith's value after the year and if he has a problem at the end of the year he can sit next to Varajeo...although I highly doubt it comes to that.

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Great article on that very subject right here