If The Percieved Dooms Day Scenerio Happens ?

[coachx]

1. we lose Smoove to a sign and trade

and

2. rumored sign and trades of Odom and Prince / A Johnson are true.

What is best case scenerio out of each situation ?

1. Odom's deal expires in a year at $14.5 mill or so. This deals makes absolutly no sense to me except for the fact the Odom can play PF. However, at 30 he would only be a 1 year rental. Would the ASG actually use the cap space created by: Marvin, Solo, ZaZa, Odom, and Bibby all expiring. One would think we would have enough cap space to throw out a max offer at a real star. Whether or not they sign to play with Horford, Smith, and Law is another matter all together. To me getting Odom means the ASG would have to be spenders and convince a star to come in free agency on max deal. I have no faith in the ASG pulling any of that off so I am totally against that trade.

2. The Prince and Amir Johnson trade gets us some talent but is far from ideal. Prince has 2 years left on his deal. He and JJ will be FA the same year. Prince will then be 30 and JJ would be 29. That is a tough age to re-up wing players long term for the big money they will be looking for. Prince and Marvin play thesame position. While I like the depth I just don't see those 2 complimenting each other on the floor together. Amir Johnson could potentially be a nice post player next to Horford. However, he is unproven and may be nothing more then Solo part II. The best case scenerion here is that A. Johnson turns out to be a Blatche' (from the Wizards) like player who can block shots next to Horford down low. Prince makes us a smarter and more efficient team while Marvin becomes more agressive on the offensive end as a scorer in a 6th man role. (No way do I see him playing PF any time soon.) Could be a decent team. Maybe no better or no worse then a team with Smoove. Just less long term potential and less exciting.

[frosgrim]

Both trades are lousy.

The Piston deal is only slightly better since we get a guy that MIGHT be able to play center and allow Horford to slide over to the PF.

If I were to bet, the Pistons' deal is the most likely one. Sund is obsessed with raw centers (see his drafts in Seattle).

Ife we do get Prince, I don't think he starts for the Hawks. Prince fills the Childress role, playing SF, SG, and PG for times. Yes, Woodson is obsessed with playing SFs a PGs (I think he wanted to play PG when he played, so now he plays that out with his players).

IMO, if we do the Detroit trade, Amir also becomes the starting center for the Hawks. They have to as the Hawks have no one else to play PF other than Horford. The other option is to start Prince at SF and use, gulp, Marvin as the starting PF.

Face it folks, the Hawks will be lucky to win 33 games next year, but more than likely they will slide back into the 20s. When Smith plays us, he'll put up 40/15 with 6 blocks.

[jhay610]

I think the doomsday scenario is Smith accepting the QO. While I recognize that is unlikely and doesn't make much sense for him, if he did, that would be Armageddon. The Odom 1-year rental sucks. Even if ASG wanted to try to go after a big name, it is highly unlikely one could be landed because of the perception that is being created/perpetuated that the ASG is not really committed to winning.

Why would that be their plan anyway? It was obvious after the playoffs that we had an up-and-coming team. The goal should be keeping it together. Losing Smooth would set us back 5 years.

It cannot be a good sign that we stated our main goal of the offseason is to sign our guys and it doesn't get done. I am still holding to hope that we can get him resigned.

At least, it seems Sund is holding out for a SnT that he feels is equitable.

[AtLaS]

Sund/ASG are bound to screw us one way or the other. Their offseason "plan" at all costs was to resign Smith and Childress. It is now likely neither will be back. Great job guys.

[Cwell]

Sund/ASG are bound to screw us one way or the other. Their offseason "plan" at all costs was to resign Smith and Childress. It is now likely neither will be back. Great job guys.

they're liars. They said they'd match any offer for him. 12 million is what he easily could have gotten but they don't want to give it to him.They're liars and can't believe the 2-3 people that back them at all cost.

[Chris18]

they're liars. They said they'd match any offer for him. 12 million is what he easily could have gotten but they don't want to give it to him.They're liars and can't believe the 2-3 people that back them at all cost.

Yep...

[AtLaS]

they're liars. They said they'd match any offer for him. 12 million is what he easily could have gotten but they don't want to give it to him.They're liars and can't believe the 2-3 people that back them at all cost.

Philly was rumored to give him 5 years, 68 million and pretty much everyone on this site agreed that that would be a good deal and an easy match. Now they won't even give him 5 years, 60?? WTF. I guess the ASG did flat out lie to us, but I didn't expect any different.

[Sasha_Volkov]

they're liars. They said they'd match any offer for him. 12 million is what he easily could have gotten but they don't want to give it to him.They're liars and can't believe the 2-3 people that back them at all cost.

Waiting for everything to play out in a scenario rife with misinformation before rendering a judgment is hardly backing them at all cost. I've yet to see anyone heartily endorse the ASG here. There's basically two groups: those who are already flipping out and those waiting for the facts to be revealed before flipping out.

If Smith and the Hawks come to terms aren't you going to feel silly having whipped yourself in a frenzy for nothing?

Furthermore, teams don't state their intentions for your or my edification. It's to ward off other teams from signing their RFA's via fear the offer would be matched tying up their cap for a week and getting nothing. In turn thwarting the demand makes it cheaper to resign your RFA's.

Edited July 29, 2008 by Sasha_Volkov

[Swish]

Both trades suck and since ASG doesn't sign big free agents; even if Odom/Bibby come off the books we are still screwed. We'll probably line up Law/Evans/Marvin/Horf/Morris or someother hideous deal. If this scenario happens then we can mark ourselves down as the worst team in the NBA for at least five years.

[tmac13]

Both trades are lousy.

The Piston deal is only slightly better since we get a guy that MIGHT be able to play center and allow Horford to slide over to the PF.

If I were to bet, the Pistons' deal is the most likely one. Sund is obsessed with raw centers (see his drafts in Seattle).

Ife we do get Prince, I don't think he starts for the Hawks. Prince fills the Childress role, playing SF, SG, and PG for times. Yes, Woodson is obsessed with playing SFs a PGs (I think he wanted to play PG when he played, so now he plays that out with his players).

IMO, if we do the Detroit trade, Amir also becomes the starting center for the Hawks. They have to as the Hawks have no one else to play PF other than Horford. The other option is to start Prince at SF and use, gulp, Marvin as the starting PF.

Face it folks, the Hawks will be lucky to win 33 games next year, but more than likely they will slide back into the 20s. When Smith plays us, he'll put up 40/15 with 6 blocks.

I disagree that the team will go backwards this year. Both of the rumored trades bring back guys that will help us. Odom is a good player. He is a much better rebounder and passer than Smith. Prince is also a good player. Offensively I think both are at least equal to Smoove. Next year with either tarde the Hawks should continue to improve because guys like Bibby will be here all year and guys like Horf and Acie will get better. Its in 2 or 3 years the Hawks will feel losing Smoove as he is in his prime.

[Packfill]

I disagree that the team will go backwards this year. Both of the rumored trades bring back guys that will help us. Odom is a good player. He is a much better rebounder and passer than Smith. Prince is also a good player. Offensively I think both are at least equal to Smoove. Next year with either tarde the Hawks should continue to improve because guys like Bibby will be here all year and guys like Horf and Acie will get better. Its in 2 or 3 years the Hawks will feel losing Smoove as he is in his prime.

What is the point of trying to be "decent" for one year? Neither of those deals makes the Hawks a title contender next year and neither deal makes the team a title contender in the future.

It is one thing to go all in to win it like the Celtics did, but it is an entirely different thing to go "half-in" just so you can win 44 games.

[Hoosier]

they're liars. They said they'd match any offer for him. 12 million is what he easily could have gotten but they don't want to give it to him.They're liars and can't believe the 2-3 people that back them at all cost.

What makes this situation so bad for Hawks Fans too, is what will happen to Marvin next summer, unless he panics and takes a low ball offer this Fall.

Sund has now used-up his bluff card this summer, and teams pursuing someone like Marvin will know that they can slightly over pay for his services, and he will be gone too. This organization can no longer say with any kind of credibilty that they "will match any offer", for their RFAs.

Why did they build through the draft, just to watch their aquired assets leave one summer after the next? What a disaster Stern has on his hands, in a top ten city to boot!

Edited July 29, 2008 by Hoosier

[crimedog]

Hoosier makes a good point, if Smith gets SnT'd for anything less than a star, it will look money motivated and we will lose that traditional RFA - fear of matching advantage in the future.

The Odom deal makes no sense unless we are dumping bad salary (Speedy) and getting back another asset (multiple draft picks), otherwise just let Josh play out his QO.

Prince/Johnson has some potential, although Detroit has said that they haven't made an offer as of yet. It gives us a solid wing player who pushes Marv to the bench or allows him to be traded for utility players/picks and it gives us a young frontcourt player to (hopefully) take Josh's spot next to Al. It doesn't necessarilly move Al to PF because Amir Johnson weighs like 14 pounds and looks like Andre from Outkast (that part is irrelevant but Al would still be bodying up the big guys).

The best case there is that we can move Marv for some more bodies and Amir develops into something like Smith was for us as a shotblocker and 2-way transition stud. That way we shore up the perimeter D without losing too much on the interior D and get the 3pt. shooting we need.

Its unlikely that Amir ever develops into what Josh is though, its also unlikely that ASG takes care of both Joe and Prince in the same offseason.

[Hoosier]

if Smith gets SnT'd for anything less than a star, it will look money motivated and we will lose that traditional RFA - fear of matching advantage in the future.

What the ASG does not get, is that they will actually save money by coming closer to meeting JS's demands, than not. By building through the draft, they have several RFAs hitting the open market in the next few years. This summer the ASG made it obvious they were not about to match offers, were they to be offered, by the 76ers or the Clippers.

This has absolutly set them up to be challenged everytime they have a RFA hit the marketplace, by teams under the Cap issuing a slightly inflated offer for a Hawk player, and holding firm without the possibility of a S&T. No doubt, teams will be coming after these players.

Sund will then have to either not match and lose his RFAs for nothing, or worse, maybe take on a Koncak type contract. Something for these frugal boneheads to think about.

Edited July 29, 2008 by Hoosier

[Cwell]

What makes this situation so bad for Hawks Fans too, is what will happen to Marvin next summer, unless he panics and takes a low ball offer this Fall.

Sund has now used-up his bluff card this summer, and teams pursuing someone like Marvin will know that they can slightly over pay for his services, and he will be gone too. This organization can no longer say with any kind of credibilty that they "will match any offer", for their RFAs.

Why did they build through the draft, just to watch their aquired assets leave one summer after the next? What a disaster Stern has on his hands, in a top ten city to boot!

I don't want Marvin back so that's a non issue to me. He's done nothing to justify an extension.

[EazyRoc]

Hoosier makes a good point, if Smith gets SnT'd for anything less than a star, it will look money motivated and we will lose that traditional RFA - fear of matching advantage in the future.

The Odom deal makes no sense unless we are dumping bad salary (Speedy) and getting back another asset (multiple draft picks), otherwise just let Josh play out his QO.

Prince/Johnson has some potential, although Detroit has said that they haven't made an offer as of yet. It gives us a solid wing player who pushes Marv to the bench or allows him to be traded for utility players/picks and it gives us a young frontcourt player to (hopefully) take Josh's spot next to Al. It doesn't necessarilly move Al to PF because Amir Johnson weighs like 14 pounds and looks like Andre from Outkast (that part is irrelevant but Al would still be bodying up the big guys).

The best case there is that we can move Marv for some more bodies and Amir develops into something like Smith was for us as a shotblocker and 2-way transition stud. That way we shore up the perimeter D without losing too much on the interior D and get the 3pt. shooting we need.

Its unlikely that Amir ever develops into what Josh is though, its also unlikely that ASG takes care of both Joe and Prince in the same offseason.

Neither trade makes sense. Prince is a roleplayer and Amir is a bench scrub who played like 10 minutes a game. Amir will never be anything close to Josh Smith and the absolute best case scenario is that he becomes a Tyson Chandler. Even then, he's very foul prone (like Solomon Jones) and is very raw. It would be a few years before he starts with us, and he wouldn't even be our first big man off the bench. I don't necessarily care if we don't get a star back for Smith, as long as we get a few pieces we actually need.

[EazyRoc]

I don't want Marvin back so that's a non issue to me. He's done nothing to justify an extension.

I'm going to ask you the same question I asked Diesel.

If Marvin Williams averages 16/7/2 next year, you wouldn't extend him for 7-8.5 million a year ?

[foeteen14]

I don't want Marvin back so that's a non issue to me. He's done nothing to justify an extension.

he hasn't done anything YET! he might not have a choice but to live up to the hype if we lose both joshes though. could you imagine losing both joshes and marvin, and shelden, and salim, it would make the youth rebuilding movement look like a joke. unless of course they get some very good players for them. not just rentals either. that's what bibby is and what odom would be.

[Cwell]

I'm going to ask you the same question I asked Diesel.

If Marvin Williams averages 16/7/2 next year, you wouldn't extend him for 7-8.5 million a year ?

I'm not gonna dislike the guy no matter what. If he performs well i'm all for it but he hasn't shown that ability. Those numbers are similar to what he had this year but obviously I wasn't impressed with his on court play. Stats have never meant much to me. They don't tell the full story. If he's still doing nothing but shooting wide open mid range jumpers and bulldozing to the basket and losing the ball I don't want him back. If he starts looking like a legit threat I'm all for keeping him.