2009-10 Forecast: Atlanta Hawks

[capstone21]

2008-09 recap

It wasn't a remarkable season, perhaps, but it was certainly an odd one. For starters, a Hawks team that appeared to have no bench whatsoever found itself carried by its second unit into an unlikely second-round playoff appearance. And for no apparent reason, Atlanta's offense somehow broke one of the most fundamental correlations in basketball.

HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS

W-L: 47-35 (Pythagorean W-L: 46-36

Offensive Efficiency: 106.6 (10th)

Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (11th)

Pace Factor: 91.9 (24th)

Highest PER: Joe Johnson (18.26)

Let's tackle the second point first. There's a predictable relationship between free-throw attempts and turnovers -- teams with lots of one tend to accumulate lots of the other, too. The reason should be obvious: Arms that are close enough to hack an opponent often find the ball as well. Take last season, for instance. Of the 10 teams with the lowest turnover rate, six were also in the bottom 10 in free-throw rate; similarly, six of the high turnover teams were also in the top 10 in free-throw rate.

Somehow, the Hawks severed this relationship. It's strange that it would be them, since they weren't a particularly good offense in any other respect. Atlanta shot just below the league average from the field and was a poor offensive rebounding team. By all rights, they should have been a mediocre offensive team.

Instead, they finished 10th in offensive efficiency, thanks to one remarkable stat: They have the sixth-lowest turnover rate, with miscues on only 13.9 percent of their trips, but the ninth-highest free-throw rate, at .323 per field goal attempt.

FTA per TO: 2008-09 leaders

Team FTA/TO Golden State .199 Atlanta .199 Denver .198 Utah .194 League average .176

* Min. 500 minutes Atlanta was the league's only team to finish in the bottom 10 in turnover rate and the top ten in free-throw rate, as somehow the Hawks owned a unique ability to generate free throws without imperiling the ball. An easy way to look at this phenomenon is by looking at free-throw attempts per turnover (see chart), an area in which the Hawks ranked a close second to Golden State at 1.99 -- the league average was 1.76.

Individually, it's easily to see why. The biggest overachiever here was Marvin Williams, who averaged nearly four free-throw attempts for every turnover -- the highest rate in basketball, and more than double the league average. Zaza Pachulia (2.53) and Josh Smith (2.23) also had strong rates, but it was a team effort -- only Mike Bibby's mark was notably below the league average.

Free-throw attempts per turnover: 2008-09 individual leaders

Player Team FTA TO FTA/TO Marvin Williams Atlanta 273 70 3.90 Hakim Warrick Memphis 372 98 3.82 Antawn Jamison Washington 454 125 3.62 Kevin Martin Sacramento 527 146 3.61 Chris Bosh Toronto 617 174 3.55

* Min. 500 minutes Pachulia's strong number in this category was the second plank in the Hawks' unusual season. Heading into the year the second unit appeared to be a disaster zone. Pachulia had played horribly a year earlier, reserve guard Flip Murray was dumped by two different teams and Maurice Evans was the only other accomplished reserve.

Instead, the second unit carried the Hawks on many nights. Pachulia and Murray outperformed expectations, and the Hawks stayed healthy enough that they rarely had to venture deeper than eight men -- which is great news for a team that only had eight decent players. While several different Hawks missed time, it worked out that the injuries were rarely simultaneous, making it easier to fill in the gaps.

Murray set a career high in PER, and Pachulia raised his by over three points from the year before. As a result the two had the best plus-minus marks on the team, while the Hawks became one of the league's strongest second-quarter teams.

Defensively, the story was more mundane but no less pleasant. The Hawks had been an offense-first squad a year earlier after a midseason trade for Mike Bibby. But they improved to 11th in defensive efficiency last season, mostly as a result of improved effort and experience up and down the roster. Coach Mike Woodson, in his fifth season at the helm, also deserves some credit for keeping his message fresh with a crew that's been hearing his voice for quite a long time now.

In the end the Hawks won 47 games, and there was room for them to go higher -- Josh Smith had a disappointing season that saw him slump to 58.8 percent from the line, Joe Johnson had his second straight midseason funk that suppressed his overall numbers, and Williams missed 21 games and was useless in the playoffs due to a late-season wrist injury.

All told, it was a hugely successful and somewhat bizarre year that saw the Hawks, five years removed from a miserable 13-win campaign, finally become one of the league's respectable teams. Now the challenge is whether they can stay there.

<h3 class="subhead">Offseason Moves</h3>It was an interesting offseason in Atlanta because so many of their players were free agents, but ultimately not much changed. The Hawks brought back the same cast, with only a few changes around the edges to improve the questionable depth situation. The one unfinished piece of business is an extension for Joe Johnson, who will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. That might be a tough negotiation; he makes nearly $15 million this year and probably isn't interested in a pay cut, but in the current market he's not worth that kind of money.

Re-signed Mike Bibby to a three-year, $18 million deal. This was a bit of a risk given Bibby's age -- he'll be 34 by the end of the deal -- but as well as he played last season he was going to command midlevel money from somebody. Since he's mostly a 3-point shooter he shouldn't decline too severely, though his defensive shortcomings could become increasingly acute.

Re-signed Marvin Williams to a five-year, $38 million deal. This was great value for the Hawks, as Williams is only 23 and is already one of the league's better two-way forwards. Incentives could take the value of the deal to $43 million, but in that case the Hawks won't mind. Given Williams' production, age, and continued improvement as a shooter, it's a good bet he'll provide substantial value at this price. Even if he doesn't improve at all from this date forward it's a reasonable contract.

Re-signed Zaza Pachulia to a four-year, $19 million deal. Pachulia re-signed for virtually identical money to his previous contract (four years, $16 million), a solid reward for his strong 2008-09 campaign. There isn't much upside here, but he played well in three of the previous four seasons in Atlanta. If he repeats that ratio the Hawks will have a solid return on their investment.

Signed Joe Smith to a one-year deal for the minimum. This was a great deal for the Hawks, and it's a sign of how far they have come that veterans are considering them among potential destinations. Smith fills the one major gap in their frontcourt depth picture -- a solid, jump-shooting 4 who could stretch defenses -- and provides some veteran wisdom to a young locker room.

Let Flip Murray leave, drafted Jeff Teague and Sergiy Gladyr. Teague was a solid choice with the 19th pick. Although listed as a point guard, he's more of a shooter and scorer who can play off the ball with the Hawks -- much as Bibby frequently does -- while the wings do the bulk of the ballhandling. Letting Murray leave was a tough call, but it was unlikely he would play as well as he did a year ago, and the Hawks were able to cover his spot at limited expense with this move and the next one below. As for Gladyr, he's a 19-year-old Ukrainian wing who was a second-round stash pick. He'll play in Spain this year and will likely stay in Europe a few more years to develop.

Traded Acie Law and Speedy Claxton to Golden State for Jamal Crawford. I'm not a big fan of Crawford; in fact, I think he might be the most overrated player in the league. That said, you can't beat this price. Atlanta got him for two players who weren't going to play, and while taking on the $10 million obligation to Crawford a year from now is unpleasant, Atlanta has managed its cap situation well enough that it shouldn't put them into the luxury tax.

Signed Jason Collins to a one-year deal for the minimum. This was a roster-filler move, but it will help the Hawks deal with some of the league's bigger front lines. Among Atlanta's rotation players only Pachulia is big enough to handle behemoth centers in the Howard-Shaq-Yao mold, but Collins has defended such players very well over the course of his career. He's a horrific offensive player and is unlikely to play much otherwise, but should be useful in those specific matchups.

Left Josh Childress in Europe. The Hawks still owned Childress' rights as a restricted free agent, and other teams showed interest in sign-and-trade propositions, but ultimately Atlanta couldn't find a workable deal. They'll own his rights again next summer, when Childress has another out in his contract in Greece and can again try to make a move to the NBA.

<h3 class="subhead">Biggest Strength: Frontcourt Mobility</h3> The reason the Hawks' defensive approach works is that they have three 6-foot-9 frontcourt players who are quick enough to switch every screen and cover opposing guards. <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3213">Al Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams all are comfortable picking up dribblers as they turn the corner and then using their length to force the opponent into a long jump shot, and that was a huge factor in making Atlanta's undersized defense respectable. It also helped them mask Bibby's shortcomings as a defender, as any pick-and-roll was met with a switch and a big man on the opposing point guard.

We saw the result in the postseason, as the Hawks eliminated Dwyane Wade's forays to the basket in the first round by switching everything and forcing him to shoot over the top of their big men. Look for Atlanta to use this approach once again, as newly acquired Joe Smith can also switch onto guards comfortably and the rest of the crew is largely intact from a year ago.

Offensively, the frontcourt's foot speed is also a factor. Horford and Smith excel at taking rebounds and pushing the ball up the floor themselves, while those two and Williams frequently beat their opponents in transition to create easy buckets for themselves or teammates. That has made the Hawks a dangerous transition team despite starting two guards who are much more comfortable in half-court settings.

<h3 class="subhead">Biggest Weakness: Star Power</h3> The Hawks have a bunch of good players. What they don't have is an elite one, and that's the reason last season's 47 wins are probably their ceiling. The Hawks paid big money to Johnson hoping he'd become that type of player, and in spurts he has been, but he's never had a PER over 20 for a full season. While he has proved to be durable and productive, it's difficult to roll up a huge win total if he's the best player on the team. Go through the league's top 15 teams and everybody has at least one player who's better.

If Johnson isn't going to become a superstar, it begs the question of who might. Smith has the most potential but had a disappointing campaign last season, and after half a decade has yet to figure out that he's not a good jump shooter. Williams has strong potential, too, but he's much more of a complementary player. The same goes for Horford, who is rock-solid on defense and the boards but a mechanical post player and a middling shooter.

As a result, the Hawks are unlikely to challenge the upper tier of the Eastern aristocracy. Only a breakout year by Johnson or Smith seems likely to change that prognosis.

<h3 class="subhead">Outlook</h3>The Hawks bring back the same team that won 47 games a year ago, with a few upgrades: Teague offers a vast improvement over the departed Law as a fourth guard, and Joe Smith provides a fourth big man that simply didn't exist a year ago.

On paper, all that should make the Hawks a better team than a year ago, but not so fast. Crawford is a better player than Murray if you're comparing careers, but he'll be hard-pressed to match the season Murray put together a year ago. Similarly, Pachulia and Bibby may also struggle to match their solid 2008-09 campaigns.

And the Hawks aren't as youthful as they once were. While they still own three 23-year-olds in the frontcourt, the four veteran backcourt players are 31, 30, 29 and 28; additionally, Smith is 34 and Pachulia's listed age of 25 is only believable if you use a 500-day calendar.

Between the limited scope for improvement and the lack of star power, it seems the Hawks shouldn't be much worse than a year ago … but neither should they be any better. It's quite possible they'll finish this season in the exact same position as last season -- at the top of the East's pretender heap, but miles away from the ruling Cleveland-Boston-Orlando trinity.

<h3 class="subhead">Prediction: 44-38, 2nd in Southeast Division, 4th in Eastern Conference</h3>

[Crank]

This is why stat geeks should only use stats and stop trying to give actual basketball analysis

Crawford is a better player than Murray if you're comparing careers, but he'll be hard-pressed to match the season Murray put together a year ago.

Flip

24.7 mpg

12 ppg

2 apg

1 rpg

44% fg

36% 3fg

all I gotta say is lol

[macdaddy]

We're not miles away from Clevland-Boston-Orlando. I like the negative of our front court being old when Clevland and Boston are sporting Shaq, Garnett, and Rasheed.

[Duff_Man]

That was a fantastic read. Thanks for posting it.

He makes a lot of valid points. Love what he said about Marvin. This is all good stuff. I honestly believe the difference in 47 and 50+ wins goes like this: FT shooting and Josh stepping in or driving when he is all alone at the 3pt line.

Josh is obviously the biggest culprit for both. If he steps up...I mean even like 68% from the line, it can go a long way. He started to show good signs closer to and in the playoffs by passing up a gfew threes and going to the hole. It yielded good results. Why he can't listen to the nagging doubts in his head is beyond me, but if (and when) it clicks, it could really help change a lot of the dynamic of our offense.

[Duff_Man]

This is why stat geeks should only use stats and stop trying to give actual basketball analysis

Flip

24.7 mpg

12 ppg

2 apg

1 rpg

44% fg

36% 3fg

all I gotta say is lol

Flip was perfect for us off the bench last year. He was an aggressor, pushed tempo, and led well while on the floor. A lot of what he did for us isn't going to show up in a box score. We got the perfect player for our situation. Luckily for us he stayed in a good mood all year.

[Admin]

That was a fantastic read. Thanks for posting it.

He makes a lot of valid points. Love what he said about Marvin. This is all good stuff. I honestly believe the difference in 47 and 50+ wins goes like this: FT shooting and Josh stepping in or driving when he is all alone at the 3pt line.

Josh is obviously the biggest culprit for both. If he steps up...I mean even like 68% from the line, it can go a long way. He started to show good signs closer to and in the playoffs by passing up a gfew threes and going to the hole. It yielded good results. Why he can't listen to the nagging doubts in his head is beyond me, but if (and when) it clicks, it could really help change a lot of the dynamic of our offense.

I agree about Josh Smith as the x-factor. I think that his FT shooting was an aberration last season as he was an adequate FT shooter in previous seasons and started to shoot better in the playoffs. If he's truly dedicated to being a post player this year then he could have a breakout year and that would makes the Hawks a very dangerous team. I'm optimistic about this as he said the reason he shot 3's last year was because we needed guys that could stretch the defense and while I agree with that principle in general I think we had a larger team need for him to score in the paint and from mid-range, both of which he says he will focus on this year and abandon the 3.

I had no idea that Marvin was the best in the league at FTA to TO ratio though, that's very impressive.

[coachx]

Let's tackle the second point first. There's a predictable relationship between free-throw attempts and turnovers -- teams with lots of one tend to accumulate lots of the other, too. The reason should be obvious: Arms that are close enough to hack an opponent often find the ball as well. Take last season, for instance. Of the 10 teams with the lowest turnover rate, six were also in the bottom 10 in free-throw rate; similarly, six of the high turnover teams were also in the top 10 in free-throw rate.

Somehow, the Hawks severed this relationship. It's strange that it would be them, since they weren't a particularly good offense in any other respect. Atlanta shot just below the league average from the field and was a poor offensive rebounding team. By all rights, they should have been a mediocre offensive team.

Instead, they finished 10th in offensive efficiency, thanks to one remarkable stat: They have the sixth-lowest turnover rate, with miscues on only 13.9 percent of their trips, but the ninth-highest free-throw rate, at .323 per field goal attempt.

[

Thank you Mike Bibby ! (for the low turnovers...........his poise really helped here) That tough defensive mind set coupled with solid offensive efficiency is the recipe for real success...........especially playoff success...........not that junk the Suns became known for.

I am little suprised our free throw rate was so high (9th) considering our leading scorer, JJ, and starting PG, Bibby, rarely got to the foul line.

Edited September 29, 2009 by coachx

[gsuteke]

The point of us not having a SuperStar type player is valid, however the Hawks don't have a weakness either truth be told. This roster is solid from top to bottom. And the starters that the Hawks do have outside of Bibby are Very Good players - perhaps not spectacular but well above average at each position with being being an average player in his own right.

I don't see 47 wins as a plateau. In fact during our preseason predictions thread I'll probably go 50 on the nose.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Definitely a good read.

When I saw the stat about the FT/TO ratio, I said to myself, that has to because of Marvin . . and sure enough, it was. That's because it seems like the only time he'll make a turnover, is when he's driving to the hole and someone draws a charge on him. I need to check 82games.com and see how many bad pass turnovers and charges he had called on him. I think they keep stats for both categories.

Once again, Woody will get little credit for all of this, including the team's improved offensive and defensive ratings, but he's used to it by now.

JJ does need to elevate his game back to the level he showed back in 2005, when he shot 47% FG and 38% 3FG. If we can get that version of JJ next year, we become really dangerous. That version of JJ had very few 7 - 17 FG nights.

Then again though, that version of JJ played very well with Al Harrington, a guy who was a legit #2 option on the team who could score from the outside and down on the block.

And we all agree that the X-factor is Josh Smith. Always has been. If he abandons the long range jumper, and limits the amount of short range jumpers he takes, we'll see him become a 50%+ FG shooter. That only helps him, and the offense as a whole.

The switching defense is great, until we play Boston, and Pierce gets matched up on Bibby. Flip wasn't a great defender, but he was tougher than Bibby. Crawford isn't tough, but he's longer than Bibby.

It's going to be very interesting to see if Woody can reduce some of Crawford's well known deficiencies on the defensive end. And if the situation arises that Crawford is switched on a Pierce, can he at least play big enough to make Pierce work for the shot.

There is a chance that we could stay the same, or even slip a little, depending on how teams like Washington, Chicago, and Detroit play next year. But if most everything comes together for us, we should be that #4 seed again, and win 50 - 54 games.

I'll go on the record right now, and say 51 - 31.

[jerrywest]

I go on record 54+.

[sillent]

The point of us not having a SuperStar type player is valid, however the Hawks don't have a weakness either truth be told. This roster is solid from top to bottom. And the starters that the Hawks do have outside of Bibby are Very Good players - perhaps not spectacular but well above average at each position with Bibby being an average player in his own right.

I don't see 47 wins as a plateau. In fact during our preseason predictions thread I'll probably go 50+ on the nose.

Agreed and Teague, Crawford, Mo, Smith, and Zaza don't look too bad either. Everybody has their subjective opinions but all in all great read/article.

Edited September 30, 2009 by sillent

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Definitely a good read.

When I saw the stat about the FT/TO ratio, I said to myself, that has to because of Marvin . . and sure enough, it was. That's because it seems like the only time he'll make a turnover, is when he's driving to the hole and someone draws a charge on him. I need to check 82games.com and see how many bad pass turnovers and charges he had called on him. I think they keep stats for both categories.

Once again, Woody will get little credit for all of this, including the team's improved offensive and defensive ratings, but he's used to it by now.

JJ does need to elevate his game back to the level he showed back in 2005, when he shot 47% FG and 38% 3FG. If we can get that version of JJ next year, we become really dangerous. That version of JJ had very few 7 - 17 FG nights.

Then again though, that version of JJ played very well with Al Harrington, a guy who was a legit #2 option on the team who could score from the outside and down on the block.

And we all agree that the X-factor is Josh Smith. Always has been. If he abandons the long range jumper, and limits the amount of short range jumpers he takes, we'll see him become a 50%+ FG shooter. That only helps him, and the offense as a whole.

The switching defense is great, until we play Boston, and Pierce gets matched up on Bibby. Flip wasn't a great defender, but he was tougher than Bibby. Crawford isn't tough, but he's longer than Bibby.

It's going to be very interesting to see if Woody can reduce some of Crawford's well known deficiencies on the defensive end. And if the situation arises that Crawford is switched on a Pierce, can he at least play big enough to make Pierce work for the shot.

There is a chance that we could stay the same, or even slip a little, depending on how teams like Washington, Chicago, and Detroit play next year. But if most everything comes together for us, we should be that #4 seed again, and win 50 - 54 games.

I'll go on the record right now, and say 51 - 31.

Damn near DEAD ON . . with everything I said:

- I wanted JJ to return to his 2005 shooting levels, and he damn near did . . currently shooting 46% FG and 37% 3FG

- Said that if Smoove limited his jumpshooting, he'd become a 50%+ FG shooter . . . he's currently shooting 50.5% FG

- Asked if Woody could reduce some of Crawford's well known deficiencies on the defensive end . . . and I'll have to say that he did, even if Crawford still isn't an above average defender.

- predicted a 51 - 31 record . . . we're currently at 52 - 29