We are not trading JJ

[niremetal]

Do you really think this ownership wouldn't blink twice about paying JJ a max deal, Josh's deal, Marvin's deal and soon to be Horford's deal? There is no way we can avoid paying the luxury tax to keep this team together.

Actually, once Crawford expires, we can.

[Sothron]

Actually, once Crawford expires, we can.

We wouldn't resign Crawford?

[Buzzard]

Actually, once Crawford expires, we can.

Great point and I also think Crawfords expiring is a wildcard if Sund thinks we need more help next season. Patience is not one of my virtues as a fan. I want the big deal now; I do not think its going to happen until after the season is over. First move resign JJ, then see how things are after the dust has settled, finally we may make a move sometime next season if for instance a team like Miami has moved ahead of us.

Edited January 13, 2010 by Buzzard

[spotatl]

I don't think that keeping this team together is going to produce a championship contender. I personally wouldn't be willing to pay the luxury tax for this team if I were the owner. This team isn't just a couple tweaks away from being a top 3 team in the league.

[niremetal]

We wouldn't resign Crawford?

Not for more than the mid-level, assuming we want to bring him back at all. As much as some people delude themselves into thinking Crawford could somehow replace JJ, Crawford won't draw anything close to the attention JJ will get on the free agent market. He is a 6'5 volume-scoring shooting guard who will be not at his peak, as JJ is now (JJ turns 29 this summer), but a year or two past his peak (he turns 31 next spring). Remember that even guys like Artest have a tough time getting more than the mid-level these days. I have a tough time seeing Crawford getting more than that. So if he stays, it'll be for ~$4M less than he is making this year.

Assuming we re-sign JJ for the max or a little under, keep Smoove/Marvin/Bibby/Zaza/Teague, extend Horford for something starting around $10M, and re-sign Crawford at the mid-level, our cap number for 2011-2012 would still be a manageable ~$63M, which would leave us at least $6M under the tax threshold (probably more, assuming the economy recovers - the threshold is $69.9M this year) to round out the roster.

Edited January 13, 2010 by niremetal

[Buzzard]

I don't think that keeping this team together is going to produce a championship contender. I personally wouldn't be willing to pay the luxury tax for this team if I were the owner. This team isn't just a couple tweaks away from being a top 3 team in the league.

That is where we disagree. I think this team is just one player away; and with Craws expiring and/or moving someone like Bibby, Marvin, or Smoove we could add another decent all-star type player.

Craw alone could get us that player if a owner goes on the cheap as is the apparent case in Washington. Throw in Marvin, Smoove, or Bibby and it gets even easier to absorb a large contract.

Edited January 13, 2010 by Buzzard

[Admin]

a MAX contract for JJ from the Hawks would be around a 6 year 120 million dollar contract.

The most another team could offer would be a 5 year 93 million dollar deal.

What would the 1st year salary be on a 6 year 120 million dollar contract? My guess is that his annual salary would either be flat or would start out higher and decrease.

[Admin]

That is where we disagree. I think this team is just one player away; and with Craws expiring and/or moving someone like Bibby, Marvin, or Smoove we could add another decent all-star type player.

Craw alone could get us that player if a owner goes on the cheap as is the apparent case in Washington. Throw in Marvin, Smoove, or Bibby and it gets even easier to absorb a large contract.

While I agree that are one or two players away, I don't believe that player(s) should replace Crawford, I believe that player(s) should be in addition to, primarily to strengthen the bench although if Teague were to dramatically improve next year I'd say we'd only be an upgrade at the backup PF spot away from being a real contender.

[spotatl]

What would the 1st year salary be on a 6 year 120 million dollar contract? My guess is that his annual salary would either be flat or would start out higher and decrease.

I was using 16 million as a starting salary. And if you are doing a flat salary or a decreasing contract then you certainly aren't talking about a max contract anymore.

[spotatl]

That is where we disagree. I think this team is just one player away; and with Craws expiring and/or moving someone like Bibby, Marvin, or Smoove we could add another decent all-star type player.

I said that this team wasn't a couple tweaks away from being a contender. It sounds like we both agree that the Hawks are an allstar caliber type player away from contending. You add an allstar type player to this roster and maybe it could be a championship caliber team and maybe then it would be worth paying the luxury tax. But just tweaking the roster isn't going to get it done.

[tbhawksfan]

We are still very un championship at PG.

Horf and Smoove do an admirable job, but I agree with those that say that they are not a championship PF/C combo.

We have a very nice young team with lots of keepers, but we still don't have a dominant C or PG. For years everyone has been saying; we're unbalanced, but when the time is right the trade possibilities will arise. Well JJ's expiring is the biggest trade possibility that the team will see. Re-sign JJ and tweak and we might back into the third round at best, but JJ will be a decliing contract very quickly and at a very high price. In two years everyone wil say that his contract is tying the hands of a fine young team.

The solution is to admit good but not great this season, trade JJ and build for the next two or five years with the rest of the core and a creative JJ trade.

Smoove and Horf is a log jam at PF and Woodson still ain't the coach.........

BUT, we're right on the edge of a championship.......

[coachx]

We wouldn't resign Crawford?

Good question.

He would be 31 entering the first season on a new contract. The same age that quick iso players start their decline.

[Admin]

I was using 16 million as a starting salary. And if you are doing a flat salary or a decreasing contract then you certainly aren't talking about a max contract anymore.

I was not aware that you couldn't do a flat or decreasing salary for a max contract but thank you for clearing that up.

So the bottom line is whether the owners will be willing to increase JJ's salary by 1 million starting next year, plus raises for a total of 6 years and I think that they will be willing to do so.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

The only player in my lifetime who has carried a team to a title without any All-Star caliber players alongside him was Duncan in 2003. Wade sure as hell isn't THAT good. He needs the right players around him to contend for a title. But I think you can also win a title with JJ as your best player if you surround him with the right people, same as with every other non-point guard who is a top 10-12 player. True, you might need slightly higher-caliber runningmates to do it, but the difference isn't as drastic as many people seem to think (especially when you consider that from the standpoint of defensive matchups, it's much better to have a 6'7 swingman at SG than a 6'3 combo guard).

JJ reminds me a bit of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett c.2007 - both were perennial All-Stars, but neither was good enough to lead a team to a title on their own (you can add "anymore" to the end of that sentence in the case of Garnett). The Wolves took the approach of "well, we might as well trade KG for a younger semi-star because he isn't a top 5 player anymore." That hasn't so much worked out for them. But the Celtics didn't give up on Pierce simply because he wasn't LeBron - even though there were plenty of Celtics fans who were screaming to trade Pierce and rebuild around Jefferson. Instead, they made moves to surround Pierce with two other players of comparable caliber.

So it is with JJ. We shouldn't say "to hell with it" just because he isn't Kobe. And fortunately for us Hawks fans, Sund won't - no matter how much his haters say he should.

Great post.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

a MAX contract for JJ from the Hawks would be around a 6 year 120 million dollar contract.

The most another team could offer would be a 5 year 93 million dollar deal.

So if the Hawks gave JJ say . . . a 6yr - 100 million deal ( 16.7 a year ), that'll probably secure JJ as a Hawk. If a team doesn't offer a max deal, then could go with a 5 year deal around 80 million.

In other words . . . Sund should stay put with JJ, and pay that man come the summer.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

We wouldn't resign Crawford?

Question . . . who are the most important players on the Hawks, in your opinion? List them 1 through 5.

[Sothron]

Question . . . who are the most important players on the Hawks, in your opinion? List them 1 through 5.

Right now? I'd say:

JJ

Horford

Smith

Crawford

frankly no one is good enough to be 5. I guess I'll say Bibby just for the three point threat.

[buckeye242424]

Question . . . who are the most important players on the Hawks, in your opinion? List them 1 through 5.

JJ

Smoove

Horford

Crawford

Bibby

Not my question to answer, but I was intrigued.

[spotatl]

So if the Hawks gave JJ say . . . a 6yr - 100 million deal ( 16.7 a year ), that'll probably secure JJ as a Hawk.

actually- I seriously doubt JJ would accept that deal if other teams are offering him max contracts. Thats a 6 year deal starting at 13.3 million which means you would be asking JJ to take a paycut for the first several years of the contract over what another team would offer him. Or to put it another way- he wouldn't accept a 6th year at just 7 million dollars.

Edited January 13, 2010 by spotatl

[Buzzard]

I said that this team wasn't a couple tweaks away from being a contender. It sounds like we both agree that the Hawks are an allstar caliber type player away from contending. You add an allstar type player to this roster and maybe it could be a championship caliber team and maybe then it would be worth paying the luxury tax. But just tweaking the roster isn't going to get it done.

I see Craws expiring as a huge asset for next season. I see Bibby and ZaZa being decent assets at the break since they will only have one more year remaining. Marvin will be in the 2nd year of his contract; much easier to deal should Sund see it that way also. If Sund thinks that JJ wants to walk there is no doubt in my mind he will move him. If he does not move him, it will be because he is 100% positive he will match with ownerships blessings in hand and JJ will accept.

It is what it is. JJ, his agent, and Sund have talked. We were not included in those talks. Sund will make his decision based on those disscusions along with ownerships wishes. We are worrying over nothing. Sund has the ball well in hand and will do what is needed to do.

I think JJ is happy in Atlanta. I think he is content with the signings of Bibby and Crawford, that ownership does not want to take a step backwards with this franchise; but instead is looking to add another major part. Just as they did one season with Bibby and the next with Crawford.

Edited January 14, 2010 by Buzzard