The Hawks offense this season

[spotatl]

I had posted this in a thread by Diesel but didn't want to sidetrack his thread. Basically I was just looking at the 82games data for different hawks lineups and what jumps out so much to me about those stats is how ridiculously good the Hawks offense has been this season when Crawford has been on the floor with the other starters.

Here are the PPP of the lineups that have played at least 100 minutes for all the top 4 teams in the east plus the Suns who have the best offense in the league this season.

Atlanta http://www.82games.com/0910/0910ATL2.HTM

1.08 (Bibby, Marvin)

1.26 (Bibby, Crawford)

1.23 (Crawford, Marvin)

Cleveland http://www.82games.com/0910/0910CLE2.HTM

1.05

.99

1.14

1.15

Orlando http://www.82games.com/0910/0910ORL2.HTM

1.09

1.12

1.16 (only 83 minutes)

Boston http://www.82games.com/0910/0910BOS2.HTM

1.12

1.12

1.01

Phoenix http://www.82games.com/0910/0910PHO2.HTM

1.17

1.06

1.21

But sure people- keep telling yourselves that Woodsons offense is the problem with this team.

Edited March 1, 2010 by spotatl

[AHF]

The proof will be in the pudding come playoff time. (No question our fastbreak/iso offense has been effective in the regular season. Just note for these numbers that you need to look at them as a weighted average to give meaning - for example, Phoenix's numbers are better than ours if you do that. Our numbers still look good in this light but not quite as good since the 1.08 is nearly double the next two combined in terms of minutes.)

[spotatl]

Of course Phoenix's offense is better than the Hawks once you weight by minutes- they have the best offense in the league this season. I just thought that it was interesting that when the Hawks have Crawford in the game with the other starters that the offense reaches a level that the other playoff teams have not been able to match this season. I do think that the offense is going to slow down in the postseason- all offenses do because they are facing better teams.

I still think the hawks issue in the postseason is far more likely to be the defense than the offense. Once again- PPP for the top teams in the east.

Boston 99.5 (2nd)

Orlando 99.8 (3rd)

Cleveland 101.4 (7th)

Atlanta 103.8 (13th)

Those teams do have the ability to shut down the opposition at a level the Hawks have not been able to match.

[AHF]

Of course Phoenix's offense is better than the Hawks once you weight by minutes- they have the best offense in the league this season. I just thought that it was interesting that when the Hawks have Crawford in the game with the other starters that the offense reaches a level that the other playoff teams have not been able to match this season. I do think that the offense is going to slow down in the postseason- all offenses do because they are facing better teams.

I still think the hawks issue in the postseason is far more likely to be the defense than the offense. Once again- PPP for the top teams in the east.

Boston 99.5 (2nd)

Orlando 99.8 (3rd)

Cleveland 101.4 (7th)

Atlanta 103.8 (13th)

Those teams do have the ability to shut down the opposition at a level the Hawks have not been able to match.

Do you know where the fastbreak numbers are for these teams? I'd like to see where we rank when you take those out of the equation because I expect to see our fastbreak opportunities severely limited in the post-season compared to the regular season and for games to come down to halfcourt execution.

I agree with you that our defense needs to be able to adjust much better than we did against Dallas down the stretch. The issues aren't mutually exclusive.

[spotatl]

I'd think the best widely available proxy is percentage of shots taken in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. Those would be both the fast and slow break points but thats probably what you want.

Atlanta 38% of shots taken, 34.7 PPG

orlando 38% of shots taken, 32.6 PPG

Boston 35% of shots taken, 30.0 PPG

Cleveland 30% of shots taken, 27.6 PPG

Cleveland sure looks to be the team that relies the least on the break. With shaq and Z on the roster that makes sense.

But when you think about it- if teams are focusing on stopping transition points that means in order to do so they won't be going after offensive rebounds as much. Considering that to me the single biggest weakness of the hawks is defensive rebounding, if the other team would rather stop transition points than go after offensive boards thats a benefit to the hawks in my opinion.

[exodus]

Do you know where the fastbreak numbers are for these teams? I'd like to see where we rank when you take those out of the equation because I expect to see our fastbreak opportunities severely limited in the post-season compared to the regular season and for games to come down to halfcourt execution.

I agree with you that our defense needs to be able to adjust much better than we did against Dallas down the stretch. The issues aren't mutually exclusive.

The Hawks are 4th in the league in fast break points at 16.6.

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/fastbreak-points-per-game

The other three teams are 15th or worse.

[AHF]

The Hawks are 4th in the league in fast break points at 16.6.

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/fastbreak-points-per-game

The other three teams are 15th or worse.

Thanks, ex. I knew I had seen that before and those numbers don't surprise me in the least.

[macdaddy]

This is all well and good but actually watching the games we lose (mostly to good teams) we usually lose because we go 10 minutes without scoring in the 4th or have a 13 point 4th quarter. So running up 130 on NJ may look good for our offensive numbers but i'd like to see our numbers against better opponents or 4th quarter offensive numbers. I'm just not smart enough to find them.

[Wretch]

This is all well and good but actually watching the games we lose (mostly to good teams) we usually lose because we go 10 minutes without scoring in the 4th or have a 13 point 4th quarter.

...that's when we need a better game plan than let Joe dribble for 15 seconds and then shoot over 3+ defenders. This is where the games are won and lost and this is where we need to be moving the ball. In the playoffs, I expect those 10 minute stretches will come more often if we don't tighten this thing up.

Edited March 1, 2010 by Wretch

[buckeye242424]

...that's when we need a better game plan than let Joe dribble for 15 seconds and then shoot over 3+ defenders. This is where the games are won and lost and this is where we need to be moving the ball. In the playoffs, I expect those 10 minute stretches will come more often if we don't tighten this thing up.

The regular season is totally different from the playoffs, of course, in terms of intensity and defense. Guys play harder, and give up more fouls to stop buckets. Fast break points, and points in general seem to go down. That doesn't bode well for us, but we'll see.... We're going to live and die using the iso game, I'm used to it. Nothing is going to change offensively - which the numbers say is a good thing - but I know better just watching our team play. The lack of ball movement and iso frustrates me. I hate watching 6'9 athletic, talented players sit and watch the ball being pounded...there's got to be something more productive to be doing.

Then again, that won us the game vs. the Bucks last night. Joe came through....

[Plainview1981]

The proof will be in the pudding come playoff time. (No question our fastbreak/iso offense has been effective in the regular season. Just note for these numbers that you need to look at them as a weighted average to give meaning - for example, Phoenix's numbers are better than ours if you do that. Our numbers still look good in this light but not quite as good since the 1.08 is nearly double the next two combined in terms of minutes.)

While stats are not invaluable you can't throw everything on stats. When you watch games you see how this team has a bad offense.

[spotatl]

A fan wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter in baseball just by watching the games. Its simply too infrequent a difference to really register. But once you get enough atbats the stats make it CLEAR whats really going on.

Its the same with basketball- casual fans have confirmation bias so they will just get reinforced for whatever they come into the game believing. If you think the Hawks offense sucks then you are going to go crazy every time Joe takes a bad shot that doesn't go in. People dislike the offense because they think its too predictable and not pretty enough but if its effective then I couldn't care any less. I think once you look at the bigger picture you would see that the Hawks offense is not the problem- defense (and particularly defensive rebounding) is the biggest issue this team has.

I just laugh at all the people who think the Hawks offense sucks because its not pretty enough. Woodson is taking a very flawed halfcourt team and is getting great production out of them. I'll just say this- if the Hawks change coaches this offseason I'll put significant money on them winning fewer games next season.

Edited March 1, 2010 by spotatl

[AHF]

A fan wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter in baseball just by watching the games. Its simply too infrequent a difference to really register. But once you get enough atbats the stats make it CLEAR whats really going on.

.300 hitter = Prince Fielder (.300 in 2009)

.250 hitter = Nick Swisher (.249 in 2009)

If they hit the same number of home runs in a season, a casual fan can't tell the difference between these guys?

I think you are selling fans short. The difference between a Prince Fielder or Mark Texeira and a Nick Swisher or Adam Dunn is easy to see over the course of the season with or without metrics.

Its the same with basketball- casual fans have confirmation bias so they will just get reinforced for whatever they come into the game believing. If you think the Hawks offense sucks then you are going to go crazy every time Joe takes a bad shot that doesn't go in. But once you look at the bigger picture you would see that the Hawks offense is not the problem- defense (and particularly defensive rebounding) is the biggest issue this team has.

I just laugh at all the people who think the Hawks offense sucks because its not pretty enough.

I have seen a lot of critics of our offense and very few who say "its not pretty enough." You say that others are claiming this in every thread on offense, but the vast majority of criticism is not based on something like "I love alley-oops so the prettiest offense would be all alley-oops Why aren't we running that?"

Woodson is taking a very flawed halfcourt team and is getting great production out of them.

In the regular season, his approach is working great. I have no problem crediting him 100% for that. As I have always said, I have my doubts that the fastbreak baskets and iso options available in the regular season that make our numbers look great will still be there in the post-season as the fastbreak is taken away and teams come up with more creative solutions for our iso offense.

[buckeye242424]

A fan wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter in baseball just by watching the games. Its simply too infrequent a difference to really register. But once you get enough atbats the stats make it CLEAR whats really going on.

Its the same with basketball- casual fans have confirmation bias so they will just get reinforced for whatever they come into the game believing. If you think the Hawks offense sucks then you are going to go crazy every time Joe takes a bad shot that doesn't go in. People dislike the offense because they think its too predictable and not pretty enough but if its effective then I couldn't care any less. I think once you look at the bigger picture you would see that the Hawks offense is not the problem- defense (and particularly defensive rebounding) is the biggest issue this team has.

I just laugh at all the people who think the Hawks offense sucks because its not pretty enough. Woodson is taking a very flawed halfcourt team and is getting great production out of them. I'll just say this- if the Hawks change coaches this offseason I'll put significant money on them winning fewer games next season.

Why are they flawed in the halfcourt? Could it be because they lack a system, and they look like they don't know what they're doing out there?

And if defense and rebounding are the real issues with the team, we're in trouble because those two aspects are what Woody preaches!

[DJlaysitup]

While stats are not invaluable you can't throw everything on stats. When you watch games you see how this team has a bad offense.

I remember back before all the at-hand media/internet when I usta study the boxscores in the paper. I latched on to one stat that I always thought was key - team shooting percentage. At the time I was a Celtics fan (Bird years) and I knew ATL was a serious foe...still (while I didn't do a game-by-game chart on it), I noticed that the Celtics consistently had a higher team shooting percentage than the Hawks. Therefore, I never gave the Hawks much of a chance in a 7 game series...the numbers catch up to you.

Sometimes it's not who has the best shooters - it's who takes the best shots.

[spotatl]

AHF- the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter is an extra hit every 4 or 5 games- a fan just watching almost certainly couldn't tell the difference without keeping track. Maybe a writer who watched every game could tell the difference- but no fan would be able to. THats what I am saying- visual perceptions SUCK at picking out long term trends like this.

People always talk about how they don't htink there is enough motion or other stuff that are purely aesthetics and they simply don't care what the final results are. To me thats 100% them saying they don't like the Hawks offense because it isn't pretty enough. THere are lots of offenses that aren't as effective as the Hawks that people here think are better just because of them being more pretty. I only care about effective.

Edited March 1, 2010 by spotatl

[spotatl]

Here's why the Hawks are a flawed halfcourt team.

The Hawks have no post threat on the roster

The Hawks don't have a big that is enough of a threat from outside to draw his man out of the paint consistently.

The Starting PG is no longer a threat with the ball in his hands.

The Hawks have just 2 guys who can consistently get their own shots.

To me its absolutely remarkable that the Hawks are a top 5 offense in the league. Woodson deserves credit for that.

Edited March 1, 2010 by spotatl

[AHF]

AHF- the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter is an extra hit every 4 or 5 games- a fan just watching almost certainly couldn't tell the difference without keeping track. Maybe a writer who watched every game could tell the difference- but no fan would be able to. THats what I am saying- visual perceptions SUCK at picking out long term trends like this.

It is more than that. Better hitters get better contact on the ball, they have better at bats, etc. That is the reason they get more hits. Fans can see the difference between .300 hitters and .250 hitters both in the results and in the approach that leads to those results.

[spotatl]

And AHF- If you asked fans to judge who the best hitters were without looking at stats then I think you would end up with them picking the guys with the prettiest swings. Just like fans here like the prettiest offenses. Fans could certainly pick out hte best power hitters, but no way could they tell the diffference between a .300 hitter and a .250 hitter. Over 500 at bats all season the difference woudl be just 25 hits. If you think that fans are perceptive enough to tell the difference between 1 hit in a week I think you are crazy. These are simply not differences that people can notice without keeping track of the stats.

Edited March 2, 2010 by spotatl

[Joker]

Our offensive system can work in the playoffs, it's when we only make two passes in the half-court system is where we expose ourselves. Lack of ball movement and not consistently using our post players when they are our best passers is the problem.

Edited March 2, 2010 by nbasuperstar40