Awesome new Michael Cunningham blog about JJ,cap, etc

[niremetal]

I don't see how this addresses that being above the tax, both contracts count equally in terms of their value. If you are over the tax, which contract is responsible for it? Its foolish to say that one contract is more responsible for being over the tax because its not like you are discounted the value of a contract because it is good/bad.

I think we are somewhat talking across points here, as these lines indicate. I don't think we fundamentally disagree on any of this.

I am not saying which contract is "responsible" for being over the tax. In an absolutist sense, of course you are correct in that all contracts' dollars count the same, so no one contract's dollars are more valuable than the same number of dollars from a different contract in terms of which is "responsible" for being over the cap/tax threshold. That's not what I'm saying.

I'm saying which contract is "worse" in a relative sense, taking into account ALL aspects of a team's ability to build a competitive team. The larger "bad contract" is more of an albatross than the smaller contract because of the flexibility a team loses as a result. Notice my nod to context and "all other things being equal" - of course the length and timing of the contracts (not to mention the other personnel on the team's roster) are hugely important in terms of how good/bad a contract is for a team. All I was saying is that it is much more difficult to "work around" a $15M bad contract than it is to "work around" a $5M bad contract.

The idea behind fungibility that I am referring to has a lot more to do with timing. Let's simplify things by talking about two contracts of equal value at $10 million where we will denote one as "good" and one as "bad".

In scenario 1, we have the "good" contract and are right below the luxury tax. We are thinking about signing player X for the MLE and we actually value him a lot higher. Do we sign him?

In scenario 2, we have the "bad" contract and again are right below the luxury tax. We still value player X the same and want to sign him for the MLE. Do we sign him?

Of course, that's viewing these "good" and "bad" contracts at the back end. The other issue - and the one that is the topic of this thread and what Gearon was discussing - is whether to enter into such contracts on the front end. Specifically, the issue is whether it's a good idea to sign JJ now knowing that the contract will pay JJ $20M+ when he is 34 years old and likely will not be worth that much (hell, a lot of people think he isn't even worth the $15M we'd be paying him next year). Of course I realize that the dollars we pay JJ then would be worth the same as they would if we paid the dollars to another player (or players) instead. But no doubt, how much we "value" Player X is in large part a function of how competitive we are as a team, no? Because we are, at the VERY least, going to be more willing to go into the luxury tax to sign Player X if the team is competitive than if it is not. And if we pay $20M to a player who isn't worth it, it will be much less likely that we are fielding a competitive team than if we spend $20M on players who are worth it, no? I think that's what the crux of this good/bad contract thing is.

As I said, I don't think we disagree on any fundamental points here.

hawksfanatic - I think you both agree that $75 million in contracts imposes the exact same luxury taxes whether it is $75M in salary for $50M worth of productivity or $75M in salary for $58.5M in productivity.

I think the argument that niremetal is making is that (a) the $5M contract for $1.5M in productivity is better than the $15M contract for $5M in productivity because with the additional $10M to spend on another player or players, you can expect to acquire more than $3.5M in productivity which means you end up with better value for those dollars (>$5M value) for the same cost. Thus the total value of the team's production is higher for the same cost in a world where you sign the $5M player than the $15M player and make reasonable choices with the rest of the roster.

or

(b) to end up at $60M in productivity you will have to spend more money, all other things being equal, if you have signed someone to a $15M contract for $5M in value versus having signed someone to a $5M contract for $1.5M in value because he is assuming both players are giving you a value/dollar ratio that is substantially lower than the other players on your team and the other players available in the free agent market.

I think his statement is about opportunity cost and not about luxury tax implications - that: ($5M for $1.5M value + Player(s) X for $10M) > ($15M for $5M value). I think he agrees that both will have the same luxury tax implications under the CBA (assuming the same total salary comprising the remaining roster).

Yeah, AHF's got it. That's what I was saying.

[Nicholasp27]

what offensive system in the league addresses uncoordinated drives and missing wide open shots?

why are you changing the topic to smoove?

[Buzzard]

One other note on Gearons opinion about giving the fans of ATL a great product while also spending millions....

The Pistons had the 18th ranked team in terms of NBA salary while having the 3rd highest paid coach in the NBA during the 2005 season. The Pistons also sold out every home game in 2005 despite having the 2nd largest arena in the NBA.

Now I know this is what Gearon and the Spirit is trying to accomplish in the Atl; but down playing the resigning your best player and hiring a head coach on the cheap is not a good way of going about it IMO.

Lineup questions need to be answered.....We have our RIP in JJ if he stays...where is our Chauncey? Is Horf and Smoove really equal in value to Big Ben and Rasheed? I also think Marvin cab be equal to Princes value with a good coach.

And just as importantly....where the hell is our Larry Brown Mr. Gearon?

Links:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2005/32/320844.html

http://www.insidehoops.com/nbasalaries.shtml

Edited May 20, 2010 by Buzzard

[NineOhTheRino]

why are you changing the topic to smoove?

lol....yeah he's not much better. which is why signing JJ is a must. The Hawks are guaranteed to have the ugliest offense in the NBA if they rely on Smoove and Marvin to fill the void left by Joe.

Edited May 20, 2010 by NineOhTheRino

[niremetal]

One other note on Gearons opinion about giving the fans of ATL a great product while also spending millions....

The Pistons had the 18th ranked team in terms of NBA salary while having the 3rd highest paid coach in the NBA during the 2005 season. The Pistons also sold out every home game in 2005 despite having the 2nd largest arena in the NBA.

Now I know this is what Gearon and the Spirit is trying to accomplish in the Atl; but down playing the resigning your best player and hiring a head coach on the cheap is not a good way of going about it IMO.

Lineup questions need to be answered.....We have our RIP in JJ if he stays...where is our Chauncey? Is Horf and Smoove really equal in value to Big Ben and Rasheed? I also think Marvin cab be equal to Princes value with a good coach.

And just as importantly....where the hell is our Larry Brown Mr. Gearon?

Links:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2005/32/320844.html

http://www.insidehoops.com/nbasalaries.shtml

Look at the photo/caption here. Priceless:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2005/32/323662.html

[lethalweapon3]

Look at the photo/caption here. Priceless:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2005/32/323662.html

LOL. Whoops! Steve Belkin got Sooooul!

~lw3

Edited May 20, 2010 by lethalweapon3

[Buzzard]

Look at the photo/caption here. Priceless:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2005/32/323662.html

Yea...he did not turn out be Larry Brown II did he?

[DeacKillsaDevil]

I forwarded this article to a friend and he asked if the following question:

If we renounce Childress and let JJ walk, can we sign Bosh?

[niremetal]

I forwarded this article to a friend and he asked if the following question:

If we renounce Childress and let JJ walk, can we sign Bosh?

Your friend needs to be barred from having children.

[DJlaysitup]

I guess I've been theorycrafting for so many years that I don't think the CBA is that hard to understand especially if you read Coon's FAQ about it.

But regardless, this was a good article. The casual fans need to realize that if Joe walks out that door we don't have the cap space to go out and replace him with another All star caliber player.

Of course you could just plug Crawford into the starting lineup...done...easy...fixed.

[DJlaysitup]

at the least they should bring Flipper back.

I think Flipper is the Key. (sarc)

[DJlaysitup]

Very true. I have never heard of a company make a product, then have a response like "well its all up to the consumers now." Where would that get you? Don't you normally change up your business plan after you realize no one wants to buy your product? The ASG is sitting on their hands and insulting fans at the same time.

This is one of the most intelligent posts I have ever read. seriously

[DJlaysitup]

...As I've stated before, even long-suffering fans in Oakland and D.C. can look up in their arenas and see a world title banner hanging up. They even have one of those in Milwaukee; where's ours?...

Yeah Dejay..back when I was in the navy we got some free Celtics tickets (at the old Boston Garden) of course the seats s_cked, we on the very top row. Bird looked like an ant and the only guy that I could recognize as a human being was Mark Eaton of Utah (7'5"). We were actually about as high as all the banners. It was kinda cool at first but we had to keep craning our necks to look under all those dang championship banners.

(sorry for all the posts - catching up)

Edited May 20, 2010 by DJlaysitup

[DeacKillsaDevil]

Your friend needs to be barred from having children.

Seriously, is that even possible?

[DrReality]

Doesn't sound like there is a lot of options when it is boiled down. Get a good coach and sign JJ.

[jhay610]

BUT BRAD-DOG AND SCHULTZIE SAID WE COULD SIGN D-WADE!!!!! Get that stinker JJ out of town and get a real max player in his spot! Use that money to on a real (!) MAX player not Joe Blow!

Then sign and trade Marvin, Bibby and our first for Lebron, bring back chillz and sign Bosh! Trade Smoove for Howard:

1) Teague

2) Wade

3) Lebron

4) Bosh

5) Howard

With Horford and Craw off the bench. Then trade Mo Evans and a bucket of basketballs for Delonte West and Lebron's mom for team chemistry. Sign Avery Johnson as coach and tell me that team right thar won't win a championship. [/sarcasm]

Wait, these aren't the AJC blogs so forget what I said. Thank you MC -- thank you, thank you, thank you. Could we get JS or MB to take a quick look at this since someone else has done their work for them?