Stat du Jour: Crime is Down in the ATL

[lethalweapon3]

There are some notorious pickpocket spots around this rough-and-tumble town, but it appears Atlanta's Finest can safely cut back on their resources in and around Philips Arena.

That's because "theft by taking" in the arena is down considerably.

Fewest Steals per Game:

Nets 5.2

HAWKS 5.9

Magic 6.2

Suns 6.3

Bobcats 6.5

Hawks Steals per Game:

2006-07: 7.4

2007-08: 7.3

2008-09: 7.4

2009-10: 7.2

2010-11: 5.9

If it holds, the Hawks' current steals rate would be the 6^th lowest by an NBA squad in at least the past six seasons.

At the moment, the Hawks and Suns are the only NBA teams with no more than one regular rotation player contributing 1.0 steal or more per contest. Josh Smith represents the single Hawk contributing more than one steal per game (1.3, his lowest per-game rate since 2005-06). Behind him is Jamal Crawford (0.9, actually up on a per-minute basis compared to recent seasons), Al Horford (0.8), and Joe Johnson (0.7, lowest per-game since his rookie season and lowest per-minute in his career).

On a per-minute basis, Jeff Teague leads the team with 1.7 per 40 minutes (down from 1.9 is his rookie season). Among players with at least 30 games and 10+ minutes per game, Teague's team-leading per-minute rate ranks 42^ndin the NBA right now.

Other players with noticeable drop-offs include Marvin Williams (0.7 steals per 40, down from 1.1 last year), Mo Evans (0.8 per 40, down from 1.0 last year, lowest since his rookie season), Zaza Pachulia (0.9 per 40, down from 1.4 last year, and a career-low 0.3 per game), and Mike Bibby (1.0 per 40, down from 1.2 last year, and a career-low 0.7 per game).

The Hawks' opponents aren't exactly swooping in on the ball either:

Fewest Opponents' Steals per Game:

Bucks 6.0

Hornets 6.2

HAWKS 6.5

Pistons 6.6

Blazers 6.7

So, what's the deal with the drop-off in steals? Pace is about the same as in past years, so I don't think that's a factor. Is it the diminished reliance on help defenders? Modified defensive stance? Less full-court pressure? Collective passiveness?

In the case of not getting the ball stolen from opponents, is it just good ball handling, or the low-pace approach? There seems to be a decent correlation between low-pace and low numbers of turnovers-by-steal.

~lw3

Edited February 10, 2011 by lethalweapon3

[Dejay]

What do you mean by a dropoff? They've been stealing $$$ for the most part since 1968. Did you check out the Sixers game? They did everything short of don ski-masks and shove AK-47s in the faces of everyone who showed up...

[lethalweapon3]

What do you mean by a dropoff? They've been stealing $$ for the most part since 1968. Did you check out the Sixers game? They did everything short of don ski-masks and shove AK-47s in the faces of everyone who showed up...

I ran out of "positives" already this morning, so I owe you one.

~lw3

[MaceCase]

It has to be scheme when you see a drop off like this across the board. Along with eliminating the switch as a base and not doubling off the perimeter the team seems to be more concerned with just staying in front of their man which in itself is never a guarantee. Been noticing the stats for some time now and from watching the games I've noticed that we only try to jump passing lanes on the "tittays" as Reggie would call them. I've also noticed that Jamal's steals are only when he's up against a smaller guard and he uses his length against their passes. Beyond that I never see presses outside of Al on inbounds and Josh doesn't gamble in the post anymore, it's just one big vanilla defense.

[lethalweapon3]

Slight correction:

If it holds, the Hawks' current steals rate would be the 6th lowest of ALL TIME (or, at least since 1973-74, when they started keeping track of steals), not just the past six seasons. They are just a shade behind the 1991 Pistons (the Bad Boys' end run). The Nets will be easily breaking the record this year.

Fewest Steals per Game, All-Time:

Nets 2010-11* 5.21

Blazers 2007-08 5.55

Wolves 2004-05 5.61

Spurs 2008-09 5.78

Pistons 1990-91 5.94

HAWKS 2010-11* 5.94

Clippers 2000-01 5.98

Mavericks 2007-08 5.98

No other teams since at least 1974 have managed to snare less than six steals per game in a season.

~lw3

[capstone21]

I think steals are a very overrated defensive stat. It usually means the player gambles in the passing lane. You might get steals but you also leave your man open when you miss.

[BudBall]

Speedy Claxton is needed.

[benhillboy]

Steals are overrated most of the time (Ellis, Iverson, Nash) when talking about passing lane jumpers. Chris Paul is probably the model guy to look at as far as stealing dribbles in front of him. The dropoff is startling though. I would go with overall passiveness because Joe and Josh both are capable of using size and length advantages more often while staying in front of their man while poking away dribbles, especially the weaker ones. Bibby is good at getting his hands on unexpecting big men's handles down low when helping, but we all know what liability he is. We all know funddamentals have eroded in the league over the last 10-15 years so there are plenty guys you should go after. Chris Paul knows every single one. You have to swipe low with good timing while crotched and staying in front, and that takes a little effort. Something that is highly questionable with this team at times.

Edited February 10, 2011 by benhillboy

[tremor]

I think steals are a very overrated defensive stat. It usually means the player gambles in the passing lane. You might get steals but you also leave your man open when you miss.

That's oversimplification. Stealing by getting in passing lanes is only one the methods and even then, when fails, it doesn't have to lead to advantageous situation for opposing team (although often does).

Steals are of the way to avoid losing a basket and often lead to fast break points which are the easiest way to score. You can't overrate that.

[Atlantaholic]

Steals can be a great thing. Especially for a team that is good in transition like the Hawks. Obviously they can be misleading, since they don't guarantee that good defense is being played, but they are not a negative stat by any means.

[lethalweapon3]

Going ahead and churning out final tallies on the Damned Lies du Jour. Here's Steals...

Fewest Steals per Game, 2010-2011:

Nets 5.6

HAWKS 6.1

Bobcats 6.4

Cavaliers 6.6

Heat 6.6

Fewest Steals per Game, All-Time:

Blazers 2007-08 5.55

Nets 2010-11 5.59

Wolves 2004-05 5.61

Spurs 2008-09 5.78

Pistons 1990-91 5.94

Clippers 2000-01 5.98

Mavericks 2007-08 5.98

Pistons 2008-09 6.01

HAWKS 2010-11 6.06

Nets 2006-07 6.09

Despite Deron Williams' injury, the Nets rode some late-season thefts from The Machine and Jordan Farmar to slip out of the all-time bottom spot. The Hawks' 11-steal game versus the Heat on Monday saved the team from joining the less-than-six-steals club, but breaks the club's all-time mark (1999-2000 Hawks) by three thefts.

Player Steals Per Game, 2010-11 (2009-10 in parentheses):

Josh Smith 1.27 (1.60)

Kirk Hinrich (ATL) 0.79 (N/A)

Jamal Crawford 0.75 (0.77)

Al Horford 0.75 (0.73)

Jeff Teague 0.66 (0.48)

Joe Johnson 0.65 (1.08)

Marvin Williams 0.52 (0.81)

Damien Wilkins 0.52 (N/A)

Zaza Pachulia 0.43 (0.47)

Player Steals Per 40 Minutes, 2010-11 (2009-10 in parentheses)

Jeff Teague 1.92 (1.89)

Josh Smith 1.48 (1.81)

Zaza Pachulia 1.09 (1.36)

Jamal Crawford 0.99 (0.99)

Al Horford 0.86 (0.83)

Joe Johnson 0.74 (1.14)

Marvin Williams 0.73 (1.07)

The drop-off of three the teams' four leading daily steal-makers from last season (Joe, Josh, Marvin) is most notable.

Fewest Opponents' Steals per Game, 2010-11:

Hornets 6.1

Bucks 6.2

HAWKS 6.7

Nets 6.8

Pistons 6.9

Blazers 6.9

Bulls 6.9

Spurs 6.9

~lw3