The needs that we filled, and the needs that remained

[niremetal]

The most important thing that was running through my mind in the past few weeks is that the clock is rapidly running out for the Hawks. In fact, without a significant change in the starting 5 (read: not simply replacing Marvin with another borderline starter), the clock had already run out. The Hawks only real shot at contention in the near future is if they get a favorable matchup, pull off a second-round upset, and break through to the conference finals. That's the tipping point past which teams are viewed as legit contenders. Once a team does that, all the dominoes can fall into place. They get huge ticket revenues from the deep playoff run and increased season ticket sales, which gives them financial flexibility to spend over the tax (just ask Orlando). Perhaps more importantly, such teams become desired free agent destinations for veterans who are ring-hunting.

That's why I was pumped to see this trade goes down. It plugs some of the team's biggest weaknesses now. I agree that it's disappointing to see JC2 go. During the preseason, he looked like he could develop into a Jamal-type scorer off the bench in a couple years. The problem is that we didn't have a couple years to wait. The team clearly had plateaued and was starting to backslide as a unit. And for all the moaning about Al continuing as our center, it was clear to me, at least, that PG was our achilles heel. Teams were mercilessly exploiting our lack of a decent defender at PG. Bibby's defense was bad, and the most depressing thing is that Jamal and Teague usually seemed to be even worse.

That was perhaps both the team's most glaring need AND the need most completely filled by the Hinrich trade. The contortions we had to do to cover for our defensive deficiencies were painful to watch and undoubtedly exhausting for the other players. JJ had to chase around the opposing PG, switching schemes led to tons of mismatches, and Josh and/or Al had to play help D on tons of defensive possessions. Hinrich is literally one of the 5 best defensive PGs in the league today - the only guys clearly better are Rondo and CP3. Defensively, to go from Bibby to him is like upgrading from a beeper to an iPhone (h/t Jon Wertheim). He also is more aggressive going to the basket, and is only a modest downgrade as a spot-up shooter. Add to that the fact that he should be motivated now that he's playing for the best NBA team he's ever been on, and it's easy to see how many of our potholes he can fill. Perhaps the best news is that his defense has remained elite for his position despite the fact that he has always been among the slower PGs in the game. His game is built on jumpshooting, effort, tenacity, and savviness. Those are things that won't fade with age.

Of course, the trade doesn't solve all our problems. The big short-term downside is that we now have a roster that is rather putridly frontcourt-heavy, with 5 guys who've spent most of their minutes at center during their respective careers, 4 of whom have regressed to borderline scrub or pure scrub-level over the past 2 years. Our center depth chart would have looked great in 2008, but notsomuch in 2011. And of course, there are weaknesses still remaining that the trade did not seem to resolve. There's no guarantee that a new PG will help JJ return to his Jan/early Feb form or that he'll be able to stop Josh and Al from spending so much of their time hanging out on the perimeter. Hinrich is a shot in the arm, but it wasn't a shot that rid us of all our major ills. That's why I'm hoping that the front office still has a minor (read: Zaza) and/or a major (read: Josh) deal up their sleeve before the deadline. I don't think there is but hey, I didn't think the front office had the balls to trade for Hinrich either.

If I had to identify the Hawks' biggest fillable problems at this juncture (ie excluding unrealistic suggestions like "trade for Dwight Howard") that were not obviously addressed by the Hinrich trade, they would be:

1. A frontcourt that is increasingly content with spending its time on the perimeter. This hurts us on multiple levels. We have plunged from 9th in the league in points in the paint per game last year to 26th this year. We have plunged from 4th in the league in ORebs/game last year to 27th this year. In FTAs/gm, we've gone from 23rd last year to 29th this year. The percentage of Josh's shots that are jumpers has shot up from 36% last year to 60% this year. Al's has increased from 51% last year to 67% this year. I can't think of a team in the NBA that has contended in recent years with its starting PF and C taking so many jumpers and scoring so few points in the paint. Marvin and JJ have both increased their jumper percentage (by more modest margins) as well, but their shot distribution is not out of line from what one expects from players at their respective positions. Unfortunately, this is to me both the biggest remaining issue and the one least likely to be solved without an additional major trade.
   
   With Josh in particular, I just don't see him suddenly realizing that he should be spending more time near the basket simply because there's a new PG in town. J-Smoove needs to start thinking of himself as J-Smash. Or better yet, just Smash, because the Js really need to go altogether. Yes, his jumper is better this year than last, but that's only because he really had nowhere to go but up from last year, when his eFG% on jumpers was .285. This year, it's .432 and falling (that's my math using his Hoopdata stats, since 82games doesn't regularly update its stuff midseason), and that's with nearly every jumper being a wide-open attempt. When Josh is around the basket, he's a force to behold. On the perimeter, he's barely a threat. It's that simple.
   
2. Offensive ball-stopping. JJ and Jamal still go ISO too much, and the new look offense has increasingly been discarded in favor of ISOs and post-ups (which are really just ISOs by another name). This is perhaps the weakness MOST likely to be addressed by the arrival of Hinrich, who I doubt will be as deferential to JJ and Jamal as Bibby was.
   
3. Marvin's invisibility cloak. Marvin still disappears on offense for long stretches. If Marvin returns to his offensive form from '07-'08 and '08-'09, or the form he showed in the games before his back injury, we improve immensely. And if he could relocate the fire and intensity he had as a Tar Heel...well nevermind, because that ain't happening. There is at least some chance that Hinrich's arrival will get him more interested and involved on the offensive end. But he might just need a fresh start with a new team where he isn't so used to playing the deferential role he plays now.
   
4. Quality (not quantity) frontcourt depth. The decline of Zaza over the past couple years leaves us without a quality backup center that we can trot out every game. I think Zaza might be the type of player who needs 18+ minutes per game to get into enough of a rhythm to be effective. We can't offer him that, so if that's what he needs, we should move him to a team that can, and bring in a backup center who can provide quality minutes off the bench every night, even when they just go in for 10-12 minutes. As it is, we can use Collins against other immovable objects and bring 24 fouls off the bench the rest of the time, but we can't do much else with our backups.
   
5. Backup PG. Teague has still yet to give more than brief flashes of an indication that he can be a quality backup PG now or starting PG in the future. That means Jamal is the one who is, in effect, backup PG for most games. That's not good.
   

All that being said, if I could have picked one PG in the NBA who fit our needs at PG, Hinrich would have topped our list, at least among the ones we had a chance in hell of acquiring. I wish we could have gotten him a year ago when Chi was shopping him at the deadline, but better late than never. Now let's hope the trade spurs the team to solve its remaining issues, whether through trade or through a change in on-court attitude brought about by our new starting PG.

Edited February 24, 2011 by niremetal

[coachx]

+1

Great post and well said !

I can't even find anything that I disagree with even when I put on my devil's advocate hat.

Edited February 24, 2011 by coachx

[Supporter]

This post made me feel a lot better. And we should also remember that the last time the Hawks traded for a new Point Guard (Bibby) was when things finally changed and Hawks went to the playoffs for the first time.I think a change is what this team needs because they have become to accustomed to seeing the same faces and having the same standards set day in and day out. It's time for a new beginning and hopefully trading Bibby for Hinrich helps us make that leap towards the right direction.

[Crank]

I disagree with the ball stopping culprits being jj and jamal .

This entire team stops the all because its a one screen team . The key to any motion offense is the energy level of the bigs . They have to constantly be screening and moving but if you watch you will see the primary screen get set and then its either stand around and watch or call for the ball..

If you dont believe me watch the Bulls and Celts games tonight and watch the level of energy that KG and Noah etc use on offense that doesnt involve them getting the ball. They set screens and move and thats where Rondo and Rose pick up quite a few easy assists .

I think Al and Smoove simply are reluctant to pick up ticky tack fouls screening and have to come out of the game with the 2 foul rule .

This isnt 2 players stopping the ball its a entire teams mentality that is stopping the ball.

[niremetal]

I disagree with the ball stopping culprits being jj and jamal .

This entire team stops the all because its a one screen team . The key to any motion offense is the energy level of the bigs . They have to constantly be screening and moving but if you watch you will see the primary screen get set and then its either stand around and watch or call for the ball..

If you dont believe me watch the Bulls and Celts games tonight and watch the level of energy that KG and Noah etc use on offense that doesnt involve them getting the ball. They set screens and move and thats where Rondo and Rose pick up quite a few easy assists .

I think Al and Smoove simply are reluctant to pick up ticky tack fouls screening and have to come out of the game with the 2 foul rule .

This isnt 2 players stopping the ball its a entire teams mentality that is stopping the ball.

I definitely can't disagree with that. I think that JJ and Jamal are the most frequent culprits simply because they were tasked with initiating the offense the most, but the frontcourt is not blameless either. Like I said, post-ups are just ISOs by another name - it's going 1-on-1 with no expectation of ball movement or off-ball movement.

Edited February 24, 2011 by niremetal

[bird_dirt]

Thanks nire. I can honestly say I appreciate and value posts by you, crawful and coachx the most. Its good to have reasonable and intelligent voices around here.

[frosgrim]

I definitely can't disagree with that. I think that JJ and Jamal are the most frequent culprits simply because they were tasked with initiating the offense the most, but the frontcourt is not blameless either. Like I said, post-ups are just ISOs by another name - it's going 1-on-1 with no expectation of ball movement or off-ball movement.

I would slightly disagree about the post-ups. In a post-up game, with a true post threat, opens the offense more than a slasher going 1:4. I do agree that it is another form of 1:1 ball, but it's been shown to be more effective WHEN you have a guy that can get his shot.

But that is just a nit-pick on a very good post.

[coachx]

I disagree with the ball stopping culprits being jj and jamal .

This entire team stops the ball because its a one screen team . The key to any motion offense is the energy level of the bigs . They have to constantly be screening and moving but if you watch you will see the primary screen get set and then its either stand around and watch or call for the ball..

If you dont believe me watch the Bulls and Celts games tonight and watch the level of energy that KG and Noah etc use on offense that doesnt involve them getting the ball. They set screens and move and thats where Rondo and Rose pick up quite a few easy assists .

I think Al and Smoove simply are reluctant to pick up ticky tack fouls screening and have to come out of the game with the 2 foul rule .

This isnt 2 players stopping the ball its a entire teams mentality that is stopping the ball.

Actually, Horford constantly sets screens.

You say watch the Bulls and Celtics for players moving without the ball. You know why they move without the ball so well ? Rose and Rondo dominate the ball and create shots for others.

Too bad we have not had one of those types of PGs.......At least Hinrich is a step in the right direction though.

[Bawse]

quality post.

[AtlHomer]

Thanks nire. I can honestly say I appreciate and value posts by you, crawful and coachx the most. Its good to have reasonable and intelligent voices around here.

+1 on the original post...

Add me to the list of those that agree with this reasoned post! You stripped out the emotion and presented great insight.

[Superiorblogman]

We don't have a single player that get's to the FT line consistently. Not one in the top 40 of the NBA at getting to the line. Sessions and Harris are both in top 40. Kirk is nowhere to be found. He is a stop gap who is getting paid $9 million a year and cost you 2 1st round picks. Horrible.

[coachx]

We don't have a single player that get's to the FT line consistently. Not one in the top 40 of the NBA at getting to the line.

+1

essions and Harris are both in top 40. Kirk is nowhere to be found. He is a stop gap who is getting paid $9 million a year and cost you 2 1st round picks. Horrible.

-1 for unjustified anger.

The Hawks tried to get both Sessions and Harris but did not have the pieces to make it happen.

Crawford was the 27th pick in the draft. That is not worth much.

Our pick this year will be around 22-25 in an even weaker draft. Again there is no value there.

Heck, it took a unprotected lottery pick for the Cavs ship off Mo Williams......so it doesn't look like they were willing to take Teage / Mo for Sessions or even Teague / Mo / 1st for Sessions.

There is no way the Nets would deal us Harris given the results of what they actuall got in Deron Williams who is a top 10 player in this league.

Edited February 24, 2011 by coachx

[Seano]

Sessions and Harris are both in top 40. Kirk is nowhere to be found. He is a stop gap who is getting paid $9 million a year and cost you 2 1st round picks. Horrible.

Well you had nothing positive to say about Sessions either, so what exactly is it that you'd want? It seems your primary interest lies in complaining, no matter what we might or might not do.

Anyway, very good post Nire.

[Superiorblogman]

Well you had nothing positive to say about Sessions either, so what exactly is it that you'd want? It seems your primary interest lies in complaining, no matter what we might or might not do.

Anyway, very good post Nire.

Do you think I care about what you think about me? :thumbsdownsmileyanim: No I did not think much of Sessions, but I thought the world of Devin Harris, STUCKEY, and other PG's that get to the line. Did you ask me about my full thoughts before you jumped out there trying to criticize someone? Stop reading my posts. There is not a person on here who can bother me with there opinions I have stopped reading most of you guys post already, follow the lead dude.

[sturt]

In my top 5, I'd definitely have something about how thin we are at the 3... Damien is a 2, not a 3, and we're going to be in trouble there if we can't find an alternative solution. And it seems like every player right now being bandied about as a buy-out possibility is something other than a 3... with the exception maybe of Kapono, who simply doesn't have any skill set worth having beyond his 3-point shot.