Josh Smith: A Fair Assessment

[coachx]

Why is the fact that Josh has been in the league 7 years even a topic of conversation? Does NBA years count extra toward time on earth years? He's still young; he's still a bit immature and but I don't see how the length of his NBA tenure is expected to remedy those things. Only remedy I can think of is long term exposure to good coaching.

Its a topic of conversation for those who wish to apply common sense. I won't spend much time on explaining common sense but here is a quick run down for anyone who struggles to comprehend this point of view.

A 4 year college player would play in around 140 games, if healthy, with practice time being constrained under NCAA rules. They would have the possibility of adding 5 games per year IF they win the NCAA Tournament each year. Their season not only are shorter in terms of games played but they are also much shorter in calendar year days as well which would cut out up to 2 months of coaching instructions per year.

A player who skips college would play in approximately 328 games (not even counting any playoff appearances) and would have no limits on the hours a week they choose to practice and would not have to worry about being a full time student at the same time. Not to mention each NBA game is 8 minutes longer then a NCAA game. Plus and NBA player could add any where from 4 to 28 games per season with playoff games (1/2 the teams go to the playoffs, a higher percentage then college teams who have post season play.)

So ya......I'd say there is an obvious difference IF you simply apply basic common sense.

Edited April 5, 2011 by coachx

[AHF]

Again you are being a hard head just like #5 would.

Al Horford is leading the entire NBA in shooting percentage outside of 10 feet. The system needs a big who can make jumpers.......not a big who simply "takes" jumper. If you can't make your perimeter jumpers common sense tells anyone to shoot closer to the basket.

Is common sense too much to expect ? Obviously it is when the subject is #5.

In Josh's defense, he is shooting a pretty good % this season on jumpers so it is a little unfair to say a person who has shot more efficiently on perimeter jumpers this season than Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams that they shouldn't "simply take" jumpers.

By way of comparison, Duncan takes 66% of his shots as jumpers and hasn't shot nearly as well this year as Josh.

http://www.82games.com/1011/10SAS20.HTM

Al Jefferson shoots 62% jumpers at .421 eft%.

http://www.82games.com/1011/10UTA13.HTM

Horford is the best in the NBA - not living up to that standard is not an indictment of someone's perimeter game but the fact remains that we need more interior scoring, more drawing contact, etc. and that the best candidates to provide that are JJ at SG not being doubled; Horford; and Josh. Marvin should be able to do this as a SF with his size but I don't see him having the game to go inside. Josh has a few moves inside and with his explosive leaping he can get to the rim with just a half of a step on his man. We need someone to provide that and while Josh is shooting marginally better on jumpers than JJ it doesn't mean that he isn't better utilized inside.

[Guest]

Take Note Josh:

Everyone can take a lesson from Thaddeus Young.

The 76ers combo forward followed two inspiring seasons with an off note in 2009-2010. His field goal percentage—which was a robust 53.9% as a rookie—had dwindled down to a 47% mark in his third season. Young was starting and taking more than two 3-pointers per night, but he struggled to define himself on the court and, as a result, couldn't build his game.

Then the 76ers hired veteran coach Doug Collins.

Where most coaches ask for more from their players, Collins wanted less from Young. Heading into his fourth year, the Georgia Tech 22-year-old product was to come off the bench, play less and stay away from the 3-point arc.

"Just talking to coach Collins," Young told HOOPSWORLD. "He's helping me buy into the fact that I'm not a 3-point shooter. I realize that also. I shot the three ball well two years ago, but hey, you shouldn't live and die by threes. You should always try and be aggressive, try and get to the free throw line and get higher percentage shots. That's what I've been doing—just going for the high-percentage shots."

Now Young's making over 54% of his field goals, and while his scoring has dipped for a third straight season (down to 12.6 PPG), he's now a serious candidate for NBA Sixth Man of the Year. Most importantly, he's been an integral part of Philadelphia's second-half push.

He's also raised his Player Efficiency Rating to a career-high 18.56 (NBA average is 15), thanks to his improved shot selection and a reduced turnover rate. Of course, there a few people that miss that 3-pointers.

"He's always been efficient to me," teammate Elton Brand told HOOPSWORLD. "The threes, I kind of liked his three shot a little. He wasn't bad at them. But he cut them out completely. Maybe he'll add it again for the playoffs or something, because he can stretch the floor. He's so efficient now, though, and when he's on he's awesome."

"The guys, when I get the ball at the 3-point line, they want me to shoot it, because they know I can shoot it, but I try and get better opportunities," Young said. "I feel like a 3-point shot is not a great opportunity for me. I feel like, if we're down on the shot clock, I can get close, so I'll take a dribble in, or I can create a shot for somebody else or I'll let the guards take a three."

Young has also allowed the 76ers to play different brands of ball. Philadelphia ranks 16th in possessions per game mainly because of alternating brands of ball. Collins sticks to a halfcourt offense when 7-1 center Spencer Hawes starts the game next to veteran power forward Elton Brand, but increases the tempo when Young and point guard Lou Williams come off the bench (the 76ers have the third-highest scoring bench in the NBA). Of course Young doesn't have to sit when Hawes and Brand come back into the game because he can easily slide over to small forward.

"He's just very versatile," Nets guard and Young's former Georgia Tech teammate Anthony Morrow told HOOPSWORLD. "He does a lot of things. He's really underrated. He can score, he can rebound. He's got a good nose for where the ball is going in transition. He's on a perfect team for him. They're using him right. He's just a tough guy to match up with. He can play the 3 or the 4, post up, he has a little perimeter game if you go big on him."

Ironically, Young's recent transition from a jump shooter to someone who attacks the basket is a journey he made as an amateur. Once again, Morrow sees a player leaving the perimeter for the paint, where Young's quickness becomes a dangerous asset.

"He was kind of more like he is now," Morrow said. "He started out playing more on the perimeter. We started seeing that he would be more versatile if he primarily played on the inside instead of being a bigger guy outside. Once he did that, he did amazing and it really led to him coming out early. He had a great year. He's good now and I think he'll be an All-Star one day."

[thecampster]

In Josh's defense, he is shooting a pretty good % this season on jumpers so it is a little unfair to say a person who has shot more efficiently on perimeter jumpers this season than Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams that they shouldn't "simply take" jumpers.

By way of comparison, Duncan takes 66% of his shots as jumpers and hasn't shot nearly as well this year as Josh.

http://www.82games.com/1011/10SAS20.HTM

Al Jefferson shoots 62% jumpers at .421 eft%.

http://www.82games.com/1011/10UTA13.HTM

Horford is the best in the NBA - not living up to that standard is not an indictment of someone's perimeter game but the fact remains that we need more interior scoring, more drawing contact, etc. and that the best candidates to provide that are JJ at SG not being doubled; Horford; and Josh. Marvin should be able to do this as a SF with his size but I don't see him having the game to go inside. Josh has a few moves inside and with his explosive leaping he can get to the rim with just a half of a step on his man. We need someone to provide that and while Josh is shooting marginally better on jumpers than JJ it doesn't mean that he isn't better utilized inside.

So these stats beg this question. Should Al Jefferson and Tim Duncan stop shooting jumpers and be benched if they do since they are shooting worse than Josh?

[MaceCase]

In Josh's defense, he is shooting a pretty good % this season on jumpers so it is a little unfair to say a person who has shot more efficiently on perimeter jumpers this season than Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams that they shouldn't "simply take" jumpers.

By way of comparison, Duncan takes 66% of his shots as jumpers and hasn't shot nearly as well this year as Josh.

http://www.82games.com/1011/10SAS20.HTM

Al Jefferson shoots 62% jumpers at .421 eft%.

http://www.82games.com/1011/10UTA13.HTM

Horford is the best in the NBA - not living up to that standard is not an indictment of someone's perimeter game but the fact remains that we need more interior scoring, more drawing contact, etc. and that the best candidates to provide that are JJ at SG not being doubled; Horford; and Josh. Marvin should be able to do this as a SF with his size but I don't see him having the game to go inside. Josh has a few moves inside and with his explosive leaping he can get to the rim with just a half of a step on his man. We need someone to provide that and while Josh is shooting marginally better on jumpers than JJ it doesn't mean that he isn't better utilized inside.

I think your comparison is off especially with the use of eFG%. eFG% gives more weight to the 3 point shot and you are comparing two players that don't take 3's at all numbers to Josh's. Inside the arc Josh is considerable worse than they are considering that I have him at 35% from 10-23 feet according to hoopdata. If you were to average that with his raw 3point% then it will only drop further.

Edit:

My math may be off at some point but just to make it easier for comparison sake and also so I don't have to rip out scratch paper and seeing as Josh and them take the majority of their jumpshots from 16-23 feet:

Josh shoots 39% on 4.3 attempts per game

Duncan 42% on 2.9 attempts

Jefferson 41% on 3.8 attempts.

.Edit again;

From that same distance lets look at his teammates.

Jamal 45% on 3.2 attempts

Marvin 44% on 3 attempts

Joe 39% on 4 attempts

It just goes to show that his "improved" jumper has really just been influenced by the hot start of his 3point shooting and that has skewed his overall eFG%.

Edited April 6, 2011 by CrawfulToCrawesome

[AHF]

I think your comparison is off especially with the use of eFG%. eFG% gives more weight to the 3 point shot and you are comparing two players that don't take 3's at all numbers to Josh's. Inside the arc Josh is considerable worse than they are considering that I have him at 35% from 10-23 feet according to hoopdata. If you were to average that with his raw 3point% then it will only drop further.

Edit:

My math may be off at some point but just to make it easier for comparison sake and also so I don't have to rip out scratch paper and seeing as Josh and them take the majority of their jumpshots from 16-23 feet:

Josh shoots 39% on 4.3 attempts per game

Duncan 42% on 2.9 attempts

Jefferson 41% on 3.8 attempts.

.Edit again;

From that same distance lets look at his teammates.

Jamal 45% on 3.2 attempts

Marvin 44% on 3 attempts

Joe 39% on 4 attempts

It just goes to show that his "improved" jumper has really just been influenced by the hot start of his 3point shooting and that has skewed his overall eFG%.

3pters deserve extra weight. They are worth 50% more points. I don't get why anyone would want to ignore that. I want my guy shooting 35% from 3pt range shooting long jumpers over my midrange guy shooting 45% for that very reason.

Even by your method, Josh = Joe so I don't see that as a harsh condemnation (or maybe it is damning Joe with faint praise). By that analysis, Josh has been Joe's equal from 10-23 feet and his superior from further out (granting that the defensive attention is very different).

[coachx]

I didn't mean disciplined as in "slapped on the wrist." I meant disciplined as in last year he consciously made the decision not to shoot 3's and took a disciplined approach to that where he resisted firing up 3pters even when wide open. That is the type of discipline that needs to return to his game.

Of course, it would have been nice if Woodson had instilled better habits from day 1 and used benchings or whatever was necessary to convey the message but that is spilled milk at this point.

I believe that #5's lower 3 point shooting attempts last season was a direct result of Woodson discipline over 6 years. I'm not saying it was enough discipline but Woodson worker for 6 years to get Smoove's 3 point attempts down. Smoove still shot many perimeter shots last year too.......he just most of them 1 foot inside the 3 point line to try and appease Woodson but that does not make the shot any better.

I have no hope for Smoove to ever "discipline" himself right now.

[MaceCase]

3pters deserve extra weight. They are worth 50% more points. I don't get why anyone would want to ignore that. I want my guy shooting 35% from 3pt range shooting long jumpers over my midrange guy shooting 45% for that very reason.

Even by your method, Josh = Joe so I don't see that as a harsh condemnation (or maybe it is damning Joe with faint praise). By that analysis, Josh has been Joe's equal from 10-23 feet and his superior from further out (granting that the defensive attention is very different).

It should be ignored because you chose to compare him with two PF/Cs that don't attempt any 3s. Of course Josh hitting just a few threes as compared to them would seemingly suggest him to be a better jumpshooter whereas in fact he is not from the area they operate in. It's seemingly apples to oranges, IMO. Perhaps you should compare Josh with other PFs that take a considerable amount of threes such as a Kevin Love, Channing Frye, Jeff Green or Dirk. Perhaps we should question what 82games considers a jumper. Does a hook and floater count because they aren't layups? I say this because Duncan is claimed at shooting 66% of his shots as jumpers by 82games but then Hoopdata has him taking 6.3 shots inside of 9 feet to 4.7 attempts from 10 and out. Can one really attempt a full formed jumper inside of 9 feet?

And there should be condemnation of Josh that in his career shooting year he is only equaling an injury plagued season by Joe with the admitted difference in defensive attention. How and why is he allowed and it found acceptable for him to be taking more shots from 16-23 feet than any of the wing players in the offense yet he is hitting them at a lower %? Even his vaunted 3point% has nosedived throughout the season to barely 33%. I find that it should be a rather Pyrrhic victory that many of his supporters feel he should be proud of or hang his hat on being a shooter for the rest of his career because he managed to match Joe Johnson in an off year.

[AHF]

I believe that #5's lower 3 point shooting attempts last season was a direct result of Woodson discipline over 6 years. I'm not saying it was enough discipline but Woodson worker for 6 years to get Smoove's 3 point attempts down. Smoove still shot many perimeter shots last year too.......he just most of them 1 foot inside the 3 point line to try and appease Woodson but that does not make the shot any better.

I have no hope for Smoove to ever "discipline" himself right now.

He went from 36% jump shots last season to 64% this season so it is a major, major shift in his game. I agree that he still took too many deep 2's but it was far from something where he was taking the same number of jumpers but now he is taking more 3's ala Marvin's move from inside the arc a few years ago.

Coach and player deserve blame.

[AHF]

It should be ignored because you chose to compare him with two PF/Cs that don't attempt any 3s. Of course Josh hitting just a few threes as compared to them would seemingly suggest him to be a better jumpshooter whereas in fact he is not from the area they operate in. It's seemingly apples to oranges, IMO.

Who cares? If they are shooting a jumper and will score more points by taking 3's then step a step or two back and shoot the 3. It isn't like shooting a jumper from 17'' spreads the floor in a better way than a short 3.

Perhaps you should compare Josh with other PFs that take a considerable amount of threes such as a Kevin Love, Channing Frye, Jeff Green or Dirk.

Dirk is a HOF jump shooter and Frye is a specialist who shoots 88% of his shots as jumpers but let's look at your others that actually profile similarly to Josh in terms of their offense:

Kevin Love efg% on jumpers .445 - basically the same as Josh

Jeff Green efg% on jumpers .400 with OKC/.467 with BOS - worse than Josh

Perhaps we should question what 82games considers a jumper. Does a hook and floater count because they aren't layups? I say this because Duncan is claimed at shooting 66% of his shots as jumpers by 82games but then Hoopdata has him taking 6.3 shots inside of 9 feet to 4.7 attempts from 10 and out. Can one really attempt a full formed jumper inside of 9 feet?

That I can't answer.

And there should be condemnation of Josh that in his career shooting year he is only equaling an injury plagued season by Joe with the admitted difference in defensive attention. How and why is he allowed and it found acceptable for him to be taking more shots from 16-23 feet than any of the wing players in the offense yet he is hitting them at a lower %? Even his vaunted 3point% has nosedived throughout the season to barely 33%. I find that it should be a rather Pyrrhic victory that many of his supporters feel he should be proud of or hang his hat on being a shooter for the rest of his career because he managed to match Joe Johnson in an off year.

You are preaching to the choir as far as what I want to see from Josh. I don't want to see him shooting jumpers but measuring him against Dirk or Horford isn't a fair standard, IMO, anymore than saying Joe shouldn't shoot jumpers simply because he is radically less efficient than Curry or Allen. With Josh's athleticism, he can be an impact guy on the inside on a team that desperately needs fewer jumpers and more inside presence and he can also be an impact guy on the offensive boards as long as he isn't floating on the perimeter.

Edited April 6, 2011 by AHF

[Hawkxan1]

Josh Smith has the tools to be an All-NBA Player. He knows it, and the staff knows it.

PROS:

Developing jumper

Freak Athlete

Great help-side defender/blocker

Quicker than his defender - ALWAYS

Highlight dunks

Decent passer

CONS:

Shoots too much from outside

Has too many silly turnovers

Doesn't always play towards his strengths

Inconsistent effort/support of teammates

--

What does this table illustrate?

His issues are mental and his ceiling is absurd. Even though his developing his jumper has caused him to periodically be lazier and dependent on them, it could really round out his game if it's his secondary move (as opposed to his primary move of getting to the rack).

The fact that his shot has improved so much speaks to his work ethic. This is a rare element to an NBA player with his type of maturity, and it might be a signal that Smoove is more coachable than people might think.

If I'm Rick Sund, I would have a good sit-down with Josh this offseason and try to find an assistant coach who will focus his efforts on Smoove's character, development, and skill. He's got all the raw materials to be an all-NBA player, but the head of an 16-year-old high school kid. I think somebody mentoring him will be the best way for him to mature into the player that the Hawks (and himself) want him to be.

Hit the nail on the head. You can't just abandon a talent like Smoove when there is there is so much potential that would be left on the table.

[Eddielives]

Did they ever get the cracked backboard repaired at the Staples Center? Smoove said he paid the bill for destruction of property.

[Jungle Jack]

Hello,

I will never understand all of the "maturity" questions about Smoove. He has kept his nose clean throughout his Career, is one of the most physically gifted Players to ever suit up for the Hawks, and has indeed worked on a new wrinkle to his game is seemingly every Off Season.

We have to accept the Hawks are horrible in respect to Player Development. Much of this is due to them never spending money for a top notch Coaching Staff. What other 50 Win Team would hire a long term Assistant Coach from their own Team so they can continue to have about the lowest paid HC in the NBA. If we are paying out HC what some Teams pay their Assistant Coaches, I just do not ever see us getting the most out of the talent that has been squandered and Draft Picks wasted.

For as much as Marvin is bashed, at least all the pundits thought he was going to be something special. Drafting Shelden Williams high in the Lottery was the choice that made me literally throw the Remote Control at the TV. If Billy had liked him that much, for God's sake, Trade down as he would have been available in the 20's.

It is going to take real Ownership to right what truly ails this Franchise. I am beyond afraid we are going to trade Smith only to see us become a 30 Win Team with him gone.

Cheers,

JJ

Edited April 9, 2011 by Jungle Jack

[AHF]

Hello,

I will never understand all of the "maturity" questions about Smoove.

I'll give you my quick summary. He has obvious flaws in his game that can be fixed merely by deciding to play discipline basketball (i.e., don't shoot long jumpers since you are giving the opposing defense exactly what they want - they fear you driving and love to see you settling; don't hang around the 3pt line on offense - this removes you from where you are most effective and let's the defense off the hook while eliminating your ability to be the best offensive rebounder on the team; don't run the fast break when a guard is equally available since the guard is better at dribbling/passing and you are much better at filling the lane and finishing on the break than said guard; block out your man for rebounds - you have a ton of physical talent and could be a dominant rebounder; don't wast time whining to the refs - it doesn't get you calls and removes you from the game at times; etc.). Since Josh is deciding deliberately to play undisciplined basketball, that is a sign of immaturity. With maturity and better application of his talents, Josh will do more for his game than 20,000 hours with a shot doctor telling him to ignore what his coaches are telling him to do offensively.

I am a big fan of Josh's but it is easy to have some degree of frustration with his maturity and decision-making process.

[tremor]

I really had liked Josh despite all his flaws until his infamous incident with Hinrich. What he did was beyond immature.

Edited April 9, 2011 by tremor

[DJlaysitup]

I really had liked Josh despite all his flaws until his infamous incident with Hinrich. What he did was beyond immature.

Wow...guess i haven't been paying attention enough :sad: ..."infamous?" what did he do? must have been pretty bad :sad: .

Well I will say one thing...whatever he did that was "infamous"...he deserves the time the judge gives him. Off to jail JSmoove...you deserve the jail time that tremor has called you on...that is...just in case...

[DJlaysitup]

I'll give you my quick summary. He has obvious flaws in his game that can be fixed merely by deciding to play discipline basketball (i.e., don't shoot long jumpers since you are giving the opposing defense exactly what they want - they fear you driving and love to see you settling; don't hang around the 3pt line on offense - this removes you from where you are most effective and let's the defense off the hook while eliminating your ability to be the best offensive rebounder on the team; don't run the fast break when a guard is equally available since the guard is better at dribbling/passing and you are much better at filling the lane and finishing on the break than said guard; block out your man for rebounds - you have a ton of physical talent and could be a dominant rebounder; don't wast time whining to the refs - it doesn't get you calls and removes you from the game at times; etc.). Since Josh is deciding deliberately to play undisciplined basketball, that is a sign of immaturity. With maturity and better application of his talents, Josh will do more for his game than 20,000 hours with a shot doctor telling him to ignore what his coaches are telling him to do offensively.

I am a big fan of Josh's but it is easy to have some degree of frustration with his maturity and decision-making process.

Good post - but to be fair - Smoove was a 2nd 1st round pick when we sucked...as a high school player. He has made very good strides without quality coaching. To say that he needs to do this and that to become a leader and an all star is absurd. In a quality program Smoove would be a borderline starter/6th man. The problem is not with Smoove...it's that (due to ignorant coaching and management) we expect too much out of the guy.

Hawks fans see him putting up big stats and have this idea that he should do all the stuff to make up for all the F-ups of the past. He should be smart - drop step like McHale - be a wizard around the hoop. But the truth is he is (and was always) a 6-8 jumper...McHale was 6-11 and very well schooled.:stirthepot:

If Kevin McHale (in his prime as a PF) ever went up against Smoove (as a PF) it would be a total mess. Smoove would be fouled out of the game by halftime.

Edited April 9, 2011 by DJlaysitup

[tremor]

Wow...guess i haven't been paying attention enough :sad: ..."infamous?" what did he do? must have been pretty bad :sad: .

Josh being big time douche to his teammate

[Wretch]

I'll give you my quick summary. He has obvious flaws in his game that can be fixed merely by deciding to play discipline basketball (i.e., don't shoot long jumpers since you are giving the opposing defense exactly what they want - they fear you driving and love to see you settling; don't hang around the 3pt line on offense - this removes you from where you are most effective and let's the defense off the hook while eliminating your ability to be the best offensive rebounder on the team; don't run the fast break when a guard is equally available since the guard is better at dribbling/passing and you are much better at filling the lane and finishing on the break than said guard; block out your man for rebounds - you have a ton of physical talent and could be a dominant rebounder; don't wast time whining to the refs - it doesn't get you calls and removes you from the game at times; etc.). Since Josh is deciding deliberately to play undisciplined basketball, that is a sign of immaturity. With maturity and better application of his talents, Josh will do more for his game than 20,000 hours with a shot doctor telling him to ignore what his coaches are telling him to do offensively.

I am a big fan of Josh's but it is easy to have some degree of frustration with his maturity and decision-making process.

Wish I could +50 this. It's not a matter of him being a All-Pro talent in the paint. It's the fact that the things that he is doing and has been focusing on are the last things we need from him. In some cases (trying to do too much with the ball) we simply don't need at all. I don't see how anyone who watches this team can't see that.

[ryandauwalker]

Here's how easy it can be:

If Josh thought to himself whenever he gets the ball (and sees there's not an open man), "I'm taking this to the rack," we would be so much better.

Also, if he thought to himself, "where's my PG?" when he doesn't have a mismatch or a 1-on-1 fast break, we'd be a lot better too.

Isn't that crazy?

Edited April 9, 2011 by ryandauwalker