Die by the sac bunt, die by the sac bunt

[CBAreject]

The situation: Bottom of the 4th inning, tied 0-0. Runners on 1st and 2nd with none out. David Ross, our best RH hitter, is up against Maholm, a left-handed pitcher. Behind Ross are Wilkin Ramirez and Julio Lugo, neither of which deserves to be on a major league roster.

The decision: Frediot sac bunts with David Ross to "move 'em over" for Ramirez and Lugo.

The outcome: Predictably, Ramirez pops up, chasing a 3-1 pitch up out of the strike zone. Lugo strikes out. Inning over, no runs.

The analysis: The situation was almost too good to be true. None out, 2 runners on, and our best RH bat is up against a LHP. Early in a tie game, it is important to score as many runs here as you can, since the Pirates have a lot of hitting left to do. As a secondary concern, you'd like to score at least one to take the lead. The way to do the first is undoubtedly to have Ross swing away. You maximize your chances of a big inning by doing so. In this particular situation, however, the way to do the second is still to have Ross swing away. The runners' being at 2nd and 3rd is nice, but with Ramirez, an impatient, strike-out prone, sub-replacement level batter up next with poor bat control and poor situational hitting, there is a fairly low chance you will score the runner from third in his at-bat. By bunting Ross, Fredi reduced his chances of a big inning significantly and reduced his chances of scoring just one run as well.

[CBAreject]

Keith Law tweets: "If Atlanta scores a run without sacrificing, does Fredi notice it?"

[macdaddy]

I don't see how this is any different than every other national league manager would have played it. 1st and 2nd no outs is text book bunt situation. Especially with the game tied 0-0 when one run may win it. Despite your contention that Ross is our best RH hitter (which is scary in itself), he's our backup catcher who is as likely to hit into a double play in that situation as he is to clear the bases.

[coachx]

Had Freddie let Ross swing and he hit into a douple play or force out at 3B you would blame Freddie too.

[Guest]

Had Freddie let Ross swing and he hit into a douple play or force out at 3B you would blame Freddie too.

Yup. Over the past few weeks it is blatantly obvious CBA just hates fredi. It's not a stats issue (he inflates how much he actually knows) or a pure baseball perspective or even a rational argument. His whole contention is fredi sucks and he rationalizes why he sucks either from a sabermetrics angle or the conventional baseball wisdom. I would not be shocked if the fake fredi twitter account was actually CBA.

[AHF]

What CBA sees in Fredi, so do national writers like Keith Law.

[coachx]

What CBA sees in Fredi, so do national writers like Keith Law.

At least he is paid to hate and cast blame on any decision throughout a baseball game where a bunt , relief pitcher, or pinch hitter don't work out perfectly.

[AHF]

At least he is paid to hate and cast blame on any decision throughout a baseball game where a bunt , relief pitcher, or pinch hitter don't work out perfectly.

Law doesn't blast many other people the way he does Fredi. As far as ESPN guys go, I do find Law's scouting on young players unusually insightful so I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

[CBAreject]

I don't see how this is any different than every other national league manager would have played it.

Perhaps, but I don't have enough information on every national league manager to say. Nonetheless, I strongly doubt your assertion because not all national league managers make as many traditional, "by the book" plays as Fredi Gonzalez does. It's hard to analyze MLB managers comprehensively, but this article introduced a metric called traditional managing index (TMI), which is simply a sum of sacrifice bunts and intentional walks. These stats are fully 2 months old, but you can see a wide variation in how frequently managers utilize these traditional plays. They are both controversial plays which are usually sub-optimal, which is why the author was interested in the metric. Note that Kirk Gibson and Bruce Bochy were bunting about half as frequently as Fredi over the season's first 2 months (I'm thinking they must have left out the times that pitchers sacrifice, which is almost always called for if possible, given how poorly they hit). Clearly, the fact that Fredi bunts in any particular situation does not imply that all other NL managers would do the same in that situation. Regardless, even if all NL managers would do the same thing Fredi did, that would not conclusively demonstrate that the play was correct (optimal).

1st and 2nd no outs is text book bunt situation. Especially with the game tied 0-0 when one run may win it.

If there actually were a traditional managing text book, it could not be followed in such a general sense without making lots of errors. You must consider the situation in more specific detail than you have here. The single most important factors in deciding whether to bunt runners over are who the bunter is (including how good he is as a hitter and as a bunter, since bunts are not fool proof--the NL average is only 68% success rate) and how good the hitter behind him is. This is what makes bunting with the pitcher (generally a horrible hitter) to set up the lead-off man (ideally the highest OBP on the team) a good play most of the time. This is also why you should almost never have the #8 hitter bunt a man over for the pitcher. Bunting with a bad hitter to move runners over for a good hitter can swing the expected number of runs scored upward AND swing the probability of scoring at least one run upward. If you take an average of all bunting scenarios, however, it is a negative-expectancy play in both situations. There are some cases where it is a positive play and many more cases where it is a negative play. A good manager can reason out which is which.

Despite your contention that Ross is our best RH hitter (which is scary in itself), he's our backup catcher who is as likely to hit into a double play in that situation as he is to clear the bases.

The question you're asking here is something like "What's more likely, that Ross gets an XBH or a GDP?" That question isn't very important, because there are many other possiblities besides the best and worst case scenarios, respectively (which are actually about equally likely, since he gets an XBH 10% of the time in his career and a GDP in 10% of opportunities - source baseball reference). Ross may walk, get a single, get HBP, reach on an error, hit a ground ball that moves the runners over anyway. Take note it is far more likely that Ross fails to get the bunt down than it is that he grounds into a double play (22% for his career vs 10% for his career). But all of this is unimportant when you consider just how bad the 2 guys were behind him.

[CBAreject]

At least he is paid to hate and cast blame on any decision throughout a baseball game where a bunt , relief pitcher, or pinch hitter don't work out perfectly.

First, I don't hate Fredi. I hate the way he manages, because it's moronic, but I wish him no harm as an individual. I do want him to be fired, but I hope he would find an even better job elsewhere.

Second, you're implying that my cricism is only fashioned in hindsight. Nothing could be further from the truth. I have never come on here and blasted Fredi for something that made sense at the time simply because it failed. I actually posted on the CAC blog "Wait, did we just bunt our best hitter for Ramirez and Lugo???" That was done the second Ross bunted before Ramirez had seen his first pitch. A shrewd poster named NRPS over there said "even if this works out, it will be the wrong play...process >> results". The point is, it was wrong at the time. The results do not justify or condemn the individual decision.

Also note that Fredi had Prado bunt in the 10th, and it failed (Prado got behind 2 strikes after fouling the bunts and had to swing at a bad pitch). I thought that was a slightly sub-optimal play, but a reasonable/understandable one, since Freeman/Uggla/Ross were up next. The fact that it failed didn't change the fact that was a reasonable play at the time. As such, I made no criticism of that play, in spite of its failure. In this light, please defend your assertion that I would've criticized Fredi for letting Ross swing away if Ross had GDP.

Edited July 28, 2011 by CBAreject

[macdaddy]

David Ross is a career .237 hitter. I'm not an expert on stats by any means but i checked baseball reference since you mentioned it. They have a stat Rdp - number of runs better or worse than average the player was at avoiding grounding into double plays. For his career Ross is a -3.

I get frustrated by this type of conservative baseball too, but in this particular instance i'm bunting David Ross with 1st and 2nd, no outs, 0-0 game everytime.

[AHawks89]

AHF - Consider this the last unofficial warning about taunting. Knock it off.

Edited July 29, 2011 by AHF

[coachx]

AHF - Consider this the last unofficial warning about taunting. Knock it off.

LOL........when I first looked at this I thought AHawks89 was being sarcastic to AHF/Mod and giving him a nofficial warning since he is not a mod.

I'm slow and was about to +1 for a good sense of humor.........then I finally caught on.

[AHawks89]

LOL........when I first looked at this I thought AHawks89 was being sarcastic to AHF/Mod and giving him a nofficial warning since he is not a mod.

I'm slow and was about to +1 for a good sense of humor.........then I finally caught on.

LOL, that would had been funny. I would have guessed you wanted me to get banned if I saw a +1 after he edited my emiticon haha. Well, geeze I was being sarcastic with the emoticon.

I guess I can't voice my opinion in the baseball threads. I think it's ridiculous that someone can bash the manager, and yet I can't "taunt" my thoughts. O well, I'll just stop posting about the Braves because I can't deal with all this negativity about the Braves. I hate seeing all this negative attitudes about Atlanta Sports. The media, now the fan(s). :negative:

Edited July 29, 2011 by AHawks89

[coachx]

Well, geeze I was being sarcastic with the emoticon.

I have no idea what it was about but I will guess this emoticon :P probably had something to do with it.

I have been waiting for the perfect time and place to use it myself.

Edited July 29, 2011 by coachx

[CBAreject]

David Ross is a career .237 hitter.

OK, but in the last 3 years with ATL, he is a .284 hitter with an .875 OPS in 392 plate appearances. Sample sizes are always important to consider, but players' ability levels change over the course of their career. The fact that Ross hit .207 in the first 3 years of his career with the Dodgers isn't that imporant to how he is playing in his prime, which is now.

I'm not an expert on stats by any means but i checked baseball reference since you mentioned it. They have a stat Rdp - number of runs better or worse than average the player was at avoiding grounding into double plays. For his career Ross is a -3.

So Ross is roughly average at grounding into double plays (or very slightly worse). Brian McCann's rdp is -9. He grounds into double plays 12% of the time, which is more frequently than Ross does. Should we also bunt with McCann, who is an MVP candidate simply to stay out of double plays? Better yet, should we bunt with McCann when the 4 hitters up behind him can barely make contact and shouldn't be on a major league roster?

I get frustrated by this type of conservative baseball too, but in this particular instance i'm bunting David Ross with 1st and 2nd, no outs, 0-0 game everytime.

The problem is not that the play was conservative. Conservative plays sacrifice a chance at a big inning for an improved chance at a single run. Sometimes, these plays are preferable, such as when the game is tied in the 8th or 9th inning. This play did sacrifice a chance at a big inning but without the benefit of increasing our chances of scoring just one run. As such, it was a demonstrably poor decision to bunt with Ross in that situation. I'm actually not sure I've ever seen a manager bunt in a more unfavorable situation than this one. Again, it has a lot more to do with who was hitting behind Ross than it does with Ross himself. If Freeman/Uggla were up behind Ross, it would be understandable, though it's not clearly beneficial, even in that case.

[AHF]

I guess I can't voice my opinion in the baseball threads.

Express your opinion. Don't taunt other posters. What is hard to understand about that? What is ironic is that the post I edited expressed no thought, it simply taunted.

Had you actually expressed an opinion, I would have left it there and edited out the taunting. Since there was only taunting, nothing was left. The whole issue is that the personal comments and taunting detract from people's ability to exchange ideas and have meaningful conversation.

Bring the substance and leave the finger pointing at home.

Edited July 29, 2011 by AHF

[CBAreject]

I guess I can't voice my opinion in the baseball threads.

Sure you can.

I think it's ridiculous that someone can bash the manager, and yet I can't "taunt" my thoughts.

My criticisms of Fredi Gonzalez have been thoroughly supported with facts and data. You are welcome to disagree, but I'd appreciate it if you took the same care in supporting your case that I have in supporting mine.

O well, I'll just stop posting about the Braves because I can't deal with all this negativity about the Braves. I hate seeing all this negative attitudes about Atlanta Sports. The media, now the fan(s).

I'm a die-hard Braves fan. I've watched over 2000 Braves games in my life and suffered through 14 playoff exits. If I cared a lot less about the Braves, I would be relatively indifferent to Fredi's ineptitude. I just don't see indifference about whether your manager is costing your team games as a sign of dedication. The complaint Atlanta fans have about the media is that they give us an undeserved negative evaluation due to ignorance, apathy, or even hatred. I tend to disagree with most fans on here who think the media, by and large, has it out for Atlanta. Their negative evaluation of our franchises has been mostly well-deserved. I wish so much it were not so, because it hurts to be a fan of arguably the worst professional sports city (1 championship in over 150 professional seasons). Despite now living in Dallas, I couldn't appreciate that the local Mavs won a championship as I watched in a bar a mile down the road. I just wished it had been my Hawks. I couldn't appreciate that the Rangers won their first ever world series game, thinking that my Braves could've beaten those Giants if Conrad hadn't been forced to start at 2B. And I couldn't have cared less that the superbowl was played here this year, because my Falcons weren't in it. Was there a better sports city to live in this year than Dallas? I can't change allegiances, though. I haven't even lived in Atlanta in a decade, but I'm still fiercely loyal to my Atlanta teams.

[AHawks89]

Although I might disagree with you on some things, or we're not on the same page, I respect your writing. You always back up your opinion; which is something I need to start doing when I'm not to lazy. And yeah, if we weren't big Braves fans, none of this would occur. I don't dislike Freddi, but I do agree that he makes some dumb decisions. Some of the decisions he chooses to make, makes me wonder how in the hell he is even a baseball manager, but I like him for the most part.

I think it's time for a new hitting coach.

Edited July 29, 2011 by AHawks89

[macdaddy]

OK, but in the last 3 years with ATL, he is a .284 hitter with an .875 OPS in 392 plate appearances. Sample sizes are always important to consider, but players' ability levels change over the course of their career. The fact that Ross hit .207 in the first 3 years of his career with the Dodgers isn't that imporant to how he is playing in his prime, which is now.

So Ross is roughly average at grounding into double plays (or very slightly worse). Brian McCann's rdp is -9. He grounds into double plays 12% of the time, which is more frequently than Ross does. Should we also bunt with McCann, who is an MVP candidate simply to stay out of double plays? Better yet, should we bunt with McCann when the 4 hitters up behind him can barely make contact and shouldn't be on a major league roster?

The problem is not that the play was conservative. Conservative plays sacrifice a chance at a big inning for an improved chance at a single run. Sometimes, these plays are preferable, such as when the game is tied in the 8th or 9th inning. This play did sacrifice a chance at a big inning but without the benefit of increasing our chances of scoring just one run. As such, it was a demonstrably poor decision to bunt with Ross in that situation. I'm actually not sure I've ever seen a manager bunt in a more unfavorable situation than this one. Again, it has a lot more to do with who was hitting behind Ross than it does with Ross himself. If Freeman/Uggla were up behind Ross, it would be understandable, though it's not clearly beneficial, even in that case.

Ross hit into a nice bases loaded, 1 out double play last night. Couldn't get the ball in the air against Livan. Despite your high regard for Ross he is a backup catcher for a reason. He's a mediocre hitter. Fredi should have tried a squeeze last night i guess. :derisive: