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2013 Atlanta Dream and WNBA Preview


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Dream Preview

It’s that time of year again. As the Hawks hibernate, the Dream rises!

The Atlanta Dream will be kicking off their 34-game WNBA season Saturday night at the Highlight Factory, against Skylar Diggins and the Tulsa Shock. I would suggest not getting your hopes up too high about the title aspirations of this year’s edition. Team depth is not what it once was, and there’s instability at one critical position, while perennial doormat teams below them are actively retooling.

On the good side, head coach Fred “Freddy Bass” Williams will start the season at the helm, so the tumult that bubbled over last year with superstar Angel McCoughtry, leading to the abrupt late-season dismissal of Marynell Meadors on her 69th birthday, is gone… at least for now.

Williams, who had prior WNBA head coaching experience with the former Utah Starzz, salvaged Atlanta’s 2012 season with a 7-3 finish to clinch the Dream’s fourth consecutive playoff berth. Unfortunately, he was overmatched by Lin Dunn’s cohesive Indiana Fever team, the eventual WNBA champs, in a three-game semifinal series.

Like Meadors, the Dream ownership is trusting Williams to buy the groceries as GM (his first season doing so) and cook the meal as coach. Williams will have to be more vocal with the referees in games, keeping his key players out of technical trouble.

Also on the positive side, it appears the top players are coming in healthy to start the year, with no absences scheduled due to international obligations, like last year with Brazilian center Erika DeSouza. Backup center Yelena Leuchanka will likely be absent until midseason to help Belarus’ contingent in Eurobasket competition.

Unfortunately, there remains a big question mark at the point guard spot. The starter from the past two seasons and former #1 overall pick, Lindsey Harding, joined former Dream assistant Carol Ross in Los Angeles. She’ll be bringing up the ball for a stacked L.A. Sparks squad. There were no players of Harding’s talent level available via free agency or the draft. Ketia Swanier performed admirably in short spells late last season, but was not a full-time-caliber player, and was cut last week.

The Dream traded their first-rounder and swapped second-round picks with Washington to acquire third-year guard Jasmine Thomas. Thomas guided the league’s worst scoring offense last year, and struggled from the outset (2.8 APG, 2.2 TO/G) as she focused on improving ball distribution at the expense of looking for her own shot. The change of scenery may help, but she will need to play the traditional point role better if she’s going to be effective here.

What Coach Williams will consider doing is starting fan-favorite and speedy veteran Armintie Herrington (née Price) at the point, perhaps moving Tiffany Hayes up into the starting 2-guard spot. Hayes made the All-Rookie Team last season after emerging as a viable offensive option during Angelgate. But she struggled to reestablish her role on the floor once McCoughtry returned from her suspension. She’ll need to improve her jumper to stick in the starting lineup.

Whether it’s Herrington or Thomas leading the charge, the Dream will make their mark with a solid halfcourt defense and the most breakneck-paced backcourt transition offense the league has to offer. A literal track meet with the basketball can be expected on the court. They’ll get even more help in that area with rookie Alex Bentley, who stands to learn a lot from Herrington. The Penn State senior won the 2013 Frances Pomeroy Naismith award as the nation’s best collegiate player below 5-foot-8. The Indy native might even help the Dream against the reigning champion Fever, as she interned with that team in their video department last summer.

Last year’s league-leading scorer, McCoughtry spent her WNBA offseason in Turkey, teaming with WNBA legend Cappie Pondexter to lead Fenerbahce to their 8th straight Turkish women’s league title. While she will come into this season with a much more positive outlook, if there are losing strings as the rigors of the season wear on, it remains to be seen whether (and in what ways) we’ll see the “Dark Angel” emerge. With no ball-dominant passers on the team, expect a healthy dose of Iso-Angel in halfcourt sets. No forward in the WNBA can create her own offense as easily as McCoughtry, but she also proved in the Olympics she’s a clever passer as well. She is the only thing standing in the way of her first MVP trophy.

The Dream will be fortunate to have a full season of shutdown defense from their frontcourt of McCoughtry, Sancho Lyttle, and Erika DeSouza. Lyttle is a defensive Swiss Army knife, but she must put to rest her Smithesque habits of poor shot selection and pouting to refs at inopportune times. The tighter WNBA flopping rules means Lyttle will also have to tighten up her man defensive strategies. DeSouza remains a stout rebounder and shotblocker, and is at her peak offensively when she is decisive in the paint and stays out of foul trouble. She’ll also have to get used to the league’s new defensive three-second rule.

In 2012, McCoughtry and Lyttle ranked #1 and #2 in steals per game in the league, while McCoughtry and DeSouza were two of just five WNBA players averaging more than one block and one steal.

Veterans Cathrine Kraayeveld and (possibly) Leuchanka return to back them up, but are definitely a step down defensively. If the re-signed Aneika Henry shows vast improvement (as she has so far this preseason), she’ll make the roster again and provide more size upfront.

The sole addition to the Dream frontcourt is free agent forward Le’Coe Willingham. A former Georgia state high-jump champion who starred at Auburn under Dream assistant coach Joe Ciampi, Willingham’s a nine-year vet who won a WNBA championship with the Seattle Storm in 2010.

Atlanta still has a pair of Achilles' heels -- a core of players that are unreliable at the free throw line (73.9 FT%, 9th of 12 teams last season), and cannot buy a three-point shot (29.6 3FG% last season, just 0.1% above the tanking Phoenix Mercury). Regarding the former, the Dream were already the most fouled team in the league in 2012 even without full-season contributions from McCoughtry and DeSouza. Hack-a-Dream can be expected to continue until Atlanta can prove they can make foes pay for it. Herrington relies on her world-class speed to get to the bucket, but when fouled she must shoot better than her usual 60% at the line.

The latter becomes an even mightier challenge this season, as the WNBA extended the three point arc out from 20.52 feet to the international distance of 22.15 feet. Without a reliable outside threat, opponents will devise zone defenses to entice anyone, aside from McCoughtry, to take shots and beat them over the top. Former Dream guard Laurie Koehn was released before becoming one of this month’s viral video sensations (hitting 132 of 135 treys in a span of 5 minutes, in an empty gym). Thomas shot an encouraging 36.5% for the Mystics and will help out when plays break down at the end of the shot clock. 3rd-round rookie Anne Marie Armstrong, from Norcross and UGA, has a slim chance to make the 11-person roster if she impresses with her range in preseason practice.

The Dream made just five threes in their two preseason games, and three of them came from undrafted rookie Courtney Clements. Arriving from San Diego State, Clements shot 13-for-20 and averaged a team-high 18 PPG against Tulsa and the Brazilian National Team. If Clements can improve her defensive presence, especially against the pick-and-roll, she has a chance to stick and push one of Henry or Leuchanka off the roster. To make room for Clements, it’s possible Williams will suspend Leuchanka and make the tougher personnel decision at mid-season (perhaps a trade) when the latter is done with Belarus.

WNBA Preview

As is seemingly the case every season, the Dream seek first to squeeze into the Eastern Conference playoffs then scare the mess out of higher seeds as they attempt to advance. To achieve the first, they have to continue outperforming at least two Eastern Conference clubs.

Washington (ex-Hawks assistant and 2-time Coach of the Year Mike Thibault, formerly with Connecticut) and the New York Liberty (three-time WNBA champion coach Bill Laimbeer) have each stepped up in the coaching department. Laimbeer has restocked the Libs with former Detroit Shock players, as Katie Smith and Cheryl Ford reunite with former teammates Plenette Pierson and Kara Braxton. It will be interesting to see how much these players still have in the tank to help out their star in Pondexter. Washington has more of an uphill climb, but will have fewer problems in the scoring department with former Dream guard Ivory Latta in the fold. Each team has rookies that will need to make immediate impacts, in center Kelsey Bone (New York) and guard Tayler Hill (Washington).

The team everyone expects to finally emerge in the East, though, is the Chicago Sky. The only WNBA franchise yet to play in the postseason, Chicago was rocking and rolling a month before the 2012 midseason break on a six-game streak. But then the Sky was falling, when breakout player Epiphanny Prince was lost for most of the season due to injury. Prince is back along with a newly-healthy MVP-caliber center in Sylvia Fowles. The Sky added a top-notch rookie forward in Elena Delle Donne, a post player with sharp passing and shooting skills. Chicago will need solid point guard play from Courtney Vandersloot plus some steady bench help to lock down a playoff spot.

Connecticut was within just 0.5 seconds of sweeping Indiana and reaching the Finals last year. Now the Sun is retooling its frontcourt around reigning MVP center Tina Charles, having already lost forwards Asjha Jones and Danielle McCray for the season to injuries from international play. The Sun also jettisoned Thibault, in favor of legendary coach Anne Donovan. Fresh from an NCAA title, versatile rookie guard Kelly Faris will boost the UConn Huskie contingent on Connecticut’s roster, but they’ll need more rebounding help and dominant point guard play from the resurgent Kara Lawson and reigning Sixth Woman of the Year Renee Montgomery to keep from sliding in the standings.

The surprise of the 2012 WNBA season was former free agent forward Erlana Larkins, who came along late in the season with her best Dennis Rodman impression, rebounding like crazy and solidifying the Indiana Fever’s first successful championship campaign. The title likely saved the team from a threatened overhaul. Now, Finals MVP Tamika Catchings and company remain the odds-on favorites to come out on top of the East. They won the title without starting shooting guard Katie Douglas, who tore an ankle tendon in the conference finals but appears ready to go.

Almost all of the excited talk around the league, once again, is about the competitiveness out West.

For the L.A. Sparks, Harding’s addition allows Kristi Toliver to fire away at shooting guard and provides a steadier hand guiding the ball to Candace Parker (Mrs. Shelden Williams). The superstar center is fully capable of carrying this team all the way to the title, if her teammates allow her to. She’s flanked by 2012 #1 overall and Rookie of the Year Nneka Ogwumike, an ideal glue player who will help the Sparks dominate in the rebounding department. Former Dream assistant Carol Ross was last year’s Coach of the Year and has lofty expectations to manage.

Phoenix was accused by WNBA fans of tanking last season with a number of mysterious illnesses sitting star players down, particularly Diana Taurasi, at the season’s end. The ping-pong balls rewarded the Mercury’s half-hearted efforts with 2013 top pick Brittney Griner. The athletic contralto-ranged center can dunk the ball with ease and has the potential to immediately transform the expectations of the WNBA’s elite bigs, if she can manage to stay out of foul trouble. With Candice Dupree and DeWanna Bonner (2nd in WNBA scoring in 2012, behind McCoughtry) at the forward spots plus Taurasi’s and Penny Taylor’s return accompanying Griner’s arrival, this team should be able to score in bunches and in a variety of ways.

If you’re at the Dream home opener on Saturday and notice not only a huge crowd but an odd proportion of hetero cis-gendered men in attendance, know it has everything to do with the regular-season debut of one Miss Skylar Diggins. The Notre Dame star is not only a certified dime piece who blows up Twitter with every televised appearance, but a tremendous point guard who can be sensational in crunch time. Tulsa absorbed a shock when Aussie center Liz Cambage reneged on her promise to return after the Olympics last summer, then announced she would play in China rather than in the WNBA this summer. Her sudden change of plans last week to make it to Oklahoma after all puts Tulsa squarely in the mix for postseason play for the first time since the franchise’s dominating Detroit years. Diggins will get roughed up a bit in the paint, as she learned in the preseason game with the Dream (bloodied lip). But she has veteran Candice Wiggins (Diggins and Wiggins!) and forward Glory Johnson to provide offensive balance and spread the floor.

Gwinnett County’s Maya Moore stays winning, scoring over 40 points per game in the offseason while leading her Chinese team to its league championship. But her WNBA Finals loss, a sweep at the hands of Indiana (perhaps her first postseason defeat since high school?) has left a bad taste, and she vows to come back hungrier than ever for her Minnesota Lynx, the team with the league’s best regular season record the past two seasons. How successful she, Lindsey Whalen and Seimone Augustus will be depends on how well Rebekkah Brunson and the Lynx frontline holds up against imposing centers in the West in Parker, Griner, and now Cambage.

Out of the gate, consider this season a Mulligan for the Seattle Storm, who are expected to be without legendary players Sue Bird and Lauren Jackson for the entire season due to leg injuries. Camille Little, who the Dream literally gave away in 2009, will have to lead the charge for the Storm. San Antonio will also have an uphill climb without leading scorer Sophia Young, recovering from an ACL tear in Chinese league play. The Silver Stars have a deeper team, though, and the emergence of its younger players (Danielle Adams and Jayne Appel, particularly) will take pressure off of Becky Hammon (sidelined at the start of the season with a broken finger) to perform heroics every night.

2013 WNBA Season Predictions

Eastern Conference

1. Indiana Fever

2. Chicago Sky

3. ATLANTA DREAM

4. Connecticut Sun

5. New York Liberty

6. Washington Mystics

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Sparks

2. Phoenix Mercury

3. Minnesota Lynx

4. Tulsa Shock

5. San Antonio Silver Stars

6. Seattle Storm

Conference Semifinals – Indiana over Connecticut (2-0); ATLANTA over Chicago (2-1); L.A. over Tulsa (2-0); Phoenix over Minnesota (2-1)

Conference Finals – Indiana over ATLANTA (2-0); L.A. over Phoenix (2-1)

WNBA Finals – L.A. over Indiana (3-1)

MVP – Candace Parker, Los Angeles

Rookie of the Year – Elena Delle Donne, Chicago

Most Improved Player – Mistie Mims, Connecticut (Trivia: Daughter of singer Chubby Checker)

Defensive Player of the Year – Sylvia Fowles, Chicago

Peak Performers – Maya Moore, Minnesota (Scoring); Sylvia Fowles, Chicago (Rebounding); Lindsay Whalen (Assists); Candace Parker, Los Angeles (Blocks); ANGEL MCCOUGHTRY, ATLANTA (Steals)

Coach of the Year – Pokey Chatman, Chicago

~lw3

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DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS:

Two Eastern Conference items I didn't notice until last night:

* Indiana has an assortment of injuries to three players (center Jessica Davenport, guards Erin Phillips and Jeanette Pohlen) that will deplete their bench for the next 4-8 weeks. Longtime center Tammy Sutton Brown has not been brought back.

* Chicago Sky starting 2-guard Epiphanny Prince is obligated to play for Russia's national team in Eurobasket and will miss seven games in June.

If the Dream want to make a run at the Eastern title, they'll need to get a jump on these two teams early.

Also: one more pick, for Sixth Woman of the Year: Samantha Prahalis, Phoenix

~lw3

Edited by lethalweapon3
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Cat Kraayeveld is off the final roster, so it seems Courtney Clements AND Anne Marie Armstrong will make it, assuming they suspend Leuchanka until midseason. These 11-person rosters are brutal.

~lw3

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Dream win!

Opening season in Phillips and Tulsa didn't have a chance.

Dream fell just 2 points short of 100 with their 98/81 victory.

Note to the Hawks: Neither team missed a free throw until

late in the 4th quarter - - Observe and learn.

Sancho looked great! These gals play at a very high speed

and they know how to rebound and have a lot of steals and

fast break points.

GO DREAM!!!

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Note to self: do NOT wait until Skylar sits to go to the food court area. Missed the entire halftime and part of the 3rd quarter.

Solid game all-around. Sancho looks like she's diversifying her offense, which looks promising, and was cutting off Shock passes left and right. Tiffany Hayes (21 points!) off the bench was as aggressive as Armintie (6 steals!) which is a great development. The newcomers aren't up to speed yet in Angel's passing game so the turnovers will pile up for awhile. So good to see this team nailing free throws! Erika's overhacking a bit, and the young wings were getting burned occasionally on D, especially by Riquna Williams, but not much else to quibble over. Gotta get used to that defensive 3-second awareness.

Candace Wiggins was a mess. Skylar did what she could but got little help from Wiggins or Cambage, who was also in quick foul trouble like Erika. Lots of defensive parting-of-the-seas that will have to be corrected if Tulsa's going to make the postseason.

~lw3

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DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS: I mentioned there's no international obligations, but Sancho is likely to miss about 6 games in June, as she's obligated to play for Spain in the Eurobasket tourney. Lyttle missed 6 games in 2011 as well for the same reason. They'll probably have to bring someone in (Kraayeveld? or another free agent?) since they'll be thin at the four (Le'Coe Willingham and that's about it).

~lw3

Edited by lethalweapon3
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Indiana won it all last season. Tonight, before their game,

they recieved their rings and raised their banner.

Then, they had their home opener against the Atlanta Dream.

Any basketball fan who could watch this, as the Dream won

going away and not get excited needs to have their pulse checked.

And all this with one of the Dream starters too ill to play. This

years team seems to be faster / quicker than last years very

good team.

GO DREAM! Awesome win!!

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Indiana won it all last season. Tonight, before their game,

they recieved their rings and raised their banner.

Then, they had their home opener against the Atlanta Dream.

Any basketball fan who could watch this, as the Dream won

going away and not get excited needs to have their pulse checked.

And all this with one of the Dream starters too ill to play. This

years team seems to be faster / quicker than last years very

good team.

GO DREAM! Awesome win!!

Got home late last night to watch the replay. Big win last night, especially without Armintie available. Angel was getting pretty much anything she wanted on offense even despite some turnovers and heady defensive play from Catchings.

For a rookie out of the gate, Alex Bentley's confidence on offense is shocking to me. Maybe it shouldn't be... as I noted above, just last summer she interned with Indiana for video coordination. Jasmine Thomas is finding her comfort zone on offense, too. We'll see how it holds up later in the season, but the offensive punch in the backcourt is much better than I thought it would be at the outset.

Sancho has been playing much smarter without the ball and is being rewarded when she gets advantages in the paint. Fred and the coaching staff looks to be doing a great job so far. On to New York Sunday afternoon.

~lw3

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Well, nothing different when the Dream wemt visiting.

Won Sunday afternoon by 10 points and start the season 3-0!

Dream girls looking good!

GO DREAM!

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Another big win!

4-0 Dream top visiting NY.

Now, Sunday we drop in to visit them with back to back games.

Falcon's starting QB, Mutombo and Zaza among those in attendance.

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I'm eating my words, but how good has Sancho Lyttle been? Is this the same player we're always talking about offensively? 8-for-10 from the floor! She's got to be in the early lead for Most Improved Player right now. They're going to miss her presence over the next six games or so after Sunday, when she heads out for Eurobasket Women for Team Spain. Hopefully, Le'Coe Willingham will have a strong veteran presence in Sancho's place. I do wonder if Fred will release Armstrong to bring on a free agent big like Ashley Robinson.

Sure hope Essence Carson is doing better, that was a tough injury. The Libs are going to need all the backcourt help around Cappie Pondexter they can get. There's a lot of pressure on Cappie from Laimbeer to lead the team in scoring and assists, and the pressure showed last night against Atlanta's scrappy defense. Pondexter shot just 2-for-12, and Pondexter, Kamiko Williams, and Carson combined for 11 turnovers and just one assist. Georgia Tech alum Alex Montgomery (12 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks in 29 minutes) played very well and will probably move into a starting spot if Carson, now their second-leading scorer, remains out.

Jasz Thomas, Alex Bentley and especially Tip Hayes are struggling with their shots, just a matter of finding a comfort level with their stronger spots on the floor, as Sancho seems to be doing. Angel McCoughtry (10 assists) could have had 20 easily if some of those shots from her teammates had dropped.

They're doing a superb job of helping in many areas and spreading duties around: Angel leading in assists (and steals, with six), Hayes leading in rebounds with Thomas right behind her. Pretty good team-oriented basketball right now.

~lw3

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No, you won't get 3 minutes of your life back, so don't ask!

6-1, Tho! Really oughta be 7-0, they let that fourth quarter on the road against the Liberty (Sunday before last) get away from them.

Philips Arena is fast becoming a House of Horrors for opponents! The two wins against the Storm and Sky last week makes it 9 regular season wins in a row for the Dream at home. Atlanta's off until next Sunday at Connecticut, then they'll get a three-game homestand to close out the month.

If they blot out the Sun next Sunday, they'll be the first team in the league this season with at least one win against each of its conference foes. Sancho will return hopefully healthy and in time for the rough 6-out-of-7 road stretch that follows in July.

Angel is gonna win Player of the Week yet again. She leads the league in turnovers (4.7 per game), but nobody really cares about that, because her TOs are not signs of carelessness but exceptional All-Star quality passes (5.0 APG, 4th in the league) that her teammates are struggling to figure out how to handle. She's also taking quite a bit of the pressure off of Jasz Thomas (3.3 APG, 1.4 TO/G). Even without a star point guard, Atlanta is far ahead of the WNBA East in assists per game.

Dream players are #1 (Armintie), #2 (Angel), and #3 (Sancho) in the WNBA in steals per game. Erika's up to 3rd in blocks, and had her way offensively once again with Chicago's defensive stalwart Syl Fowles yesterday. Atlanta is first in the league (by far) in steals, second in blocks, but next to last in personal fouls per game. Very good defensive discipline. They're the only WNBA team giving up less than 70 PPG, and haven't given up 80 or more since Tulsa scored 81 in the season opener. Opponents are last in assists, next to last in 3-point shooting percentage, and highest in turnovers, all working to Atlanta's competitive advantage so far.

~lw3

Edited by lethalweapon3
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Just Win Baby!

The Dream get by on the skin of their teeth and on the strength of 34 points from Angel McCoughtry, who's probably a lock to make that POTW award winner again. They rise to 7-1 and now sit two games ahead of Chicago, who just got Epiphanny Prince back.

They coughed up a 15-point lead late in the game and, down by 1 in the final minute, needed a McCoughtry layup in the final minute to hang on. She only managed a team-high (!) two assists, but the non-Angels were 16-for-51, which isn't getting it done. They did shoot 16-for-18 from the charity stripe, though, and the improved free throw shooting is a positive development. They can't rely on Angel every game for heroics, although she sure doesn't mind. Connecticut made a spirited late charge without star point guard Kara Lawson available.

Next three games are home games on SportSouth, including Tuesday's (12:00 noon ET) big game versus Indiana. The shorthanded champs are still reeling with 6 straight losses (1-6) and would welcome a break from the first-place Dream. Will Atlanta keep their foot on the Fever's neck?

~lw3

Edited by lethalweapon3
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Shameless reminder of today's game starting at 12 noon Eastern time at The Highlight Factory. On SportSouth with you-know-who on the mike:

~lw3

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One other personnel note. The well-worn Ruth Riley (former Olympian and NCAA+WNBA champ) is on the roster, at least momentarily taking the place for Sancho Lyttle. Riley was signed before the game at Connecticut, but in true WNBA fashion, the team did not purchase a ticket for her flight. So today's her likely Dream debut.

~lw3

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8-1, building up that cushion! Indy was without Catchings in addition to Katie Douglas and others, and Atlanta put the screws to the Fever in that second quarter and again in the back half of the third. A career-high 7 steals for Angel, and she even poked away a few others that didn't show in the stat column. Six separate Fever players had at least 3 turnovers.

Best sign of the Fred Williams' pressure defense cooking: Indiana couldn't get the ball up past halfcourt, Lin Dunn calls a timeout to avoid an 8-second call, then the Fever lose the ball anyway on a 5-second call when they can't inbound.

Bentley is turning into a fantastic find in the second round of the Draft, and I'm not against finding a way to fit her into the starting lineup, as her outside shot (2-for-2 on threes today) gives this team a different dimension. Only problem with that is finding offense from the reserves if they sit Herrington, as she and Tiffany Hayes get erratic on transition offense.

Two more home games this weekend against surprisingly dangerous Washington and San Antonio. But the Dream have done exactly what they needed to do ahead of a West Coast road trip in July, and that's taking advantage of the shortcomings of their Eastern rivals to get a jump in the standings.

~lw3

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A little bonus for you Waldo/Carmen Sandiego fans out there.

~lw3

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Alex Bentleyyyyyyyyy... Alex BENTLEY! (That's in my Hurricane Chris voice)

9-consecutive threes (at the new international line) and nailing shots at the shot clock and time clock buzzers left and right. It's easy to confuse the WNBA draft with the Dream games lately... but what a STEAL so far! She may be edging out Griner/DelleDonne/Diggins in the Rookie of the Year race and wasn't even a first-round pick,

Angel is just having her way with the league right now.

9-1! Another home game on Sunday!

~lw3

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Another Bob Rathbun Special at 3 PM, as the Dream face the San Antonio Silver Stars trying to reach 10-1 at The Highlight Factory. Game of course will be on SportSouth. I think Sancho rejoins them from Europe after this game, before they head on their road trip.

~lw3

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