Are We Overreacting to Our Playoff Loss to CLE?

[yardbird]

Tired of the status quo, I discontinued my season tickets before these playoffs, which I had held since Horford was a rookie.  Until recently, I was in favor of a significant roster remake.  I am starting to rethink that.

Cleveland is in the midst of an historic run.  If they play like they did against us, I don't see either Golden State or OKC beating them in 7 games, much less Toronto.  The key qualifier is "if they play like they did against us".  I know it's stating the obvious, but Cleveland shot 51% from the 3 point line against us.  That's 15 percentage points more than their season average of 36%.  Do you realize that, holding everything else constant, if Cleveland shoots their season average of 36% against the Hawks, Atlanta sweeps Cleveland instead of the other way around (e.g., in the Game 2 blowout, they shot 56% from 3, making 25 of 45 shots.  They make 16 shots and score 27 fewer points at 36%, while we lost by 26)?  Even if they shoot 40% from 3, we would have split the 4 games.  The Hawks finished the season ranked 6th in defending against the 3 pointer, at just under 34%.  Our game plan was to pack the paint against penetration and rotate aggressively against the 3 point shot.  Many of the long shots they made were off of the third or fourth pass, after effective close outs earlier.  Our strategy was sound, we just couldn't account for unprecedented passing and shooting by the Cavs.  So, don't overreact by blowing this thing up and spend the next 6 years becoming today's Boston Celtics.  If Cleveland stays like this, we won't be the only ones chasing them until LeBron fades, everyone will because their Big 3 complements each other almost perfectly, especially when you add in the Others (JR, Frye, Shump, etc.)

Regarding the roster, effective rim protection ala Andre Drummond to keep LeBron and Kyrie from total domination of the lane (a healthy Splitter and a more seasoned Tavares might have helped), plus doing a little better on close outs after multiple passes would go a long way.  The other thing needed is scoring at key points, including down the stretch.  We're not getting a superstar, and we can probably get by without one.  Finding the next Jamal Crawford or Isaiah Thomas (millennium version) is a lot more doable.  I'm now leaning towards bringing back Al and, unless we can upgrade the small forward spot significantly, Bazemore too.  Tweaking the roster primarily with stronger wings and a physical big  is better than starting from scratch. 

[Trout7]

Yeah, you can tell we are stronger than Toronto after these first 2 games.

[Diesel]

Aside from the loss to Cleveland or what Toronto is doing, we still are a flawed team.  Mainly our defensive rebounds.   Our defensive rebounds allowed second chance opps and is part of the reason why we lost close games to Cleveland.  Moreover, they were able to score on us at will.  When we had leads, there was an uneasy feeling that it wouldn't hold.   It shouldn't be that way.  Keeping the same team is keeping the same problems.   I would just like to see us address them.  I know that there are some that want to tear the team up to get one superstar.  I don't know if we're that far along.  It's just going to be delicate this offseason.  This offseason will make us or break us for years to come. 

[Bankingitbig]

26 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Aside from the loss to Cleveland or what Toronto is doing, we still are a flawed team.  Mainly our defensive rebounds.   Our defensive rebounds allowed second chance opps and is part of the reason why we lost close games to Cleveland.  Moreover, they were able to score on us at will.  When we had leads, there was an uneasy feeling that it wouldn't hold.   It shouldn't be that way.  Keeping the same team is keeping the same problems.   I would just like to see us address them.  I know that there are some that want to tear the team up to get one superstar.  I don't know if we're that far along.  It's just going to be delicate this offseason.  This offseason will make us or break us for years to come. 

I don't necessarily agree about the rebounding. We outrebounded Cleveland and had more OReb in Game 1 (still lost). Game 2 was pretty close in terms of rebounding. Game 3 they killed us, but also blew us out. Game 4 we outrebounded them, but they got more ORebs.

Furthermore, you can play a guy like Tristan Thompson who has no presence offensively (except ORebs) because you have a player like LeBron who can pretty much space the floor himself by sucking in the defense to him. Unfortunately, we do not have that luxury.

[AUhawksfan]

Even though we lost 4-0, it didn't feel that way.  I don't think we necessarily played terrible as a team.  We looked better against them this year than last IMO but as @Diesel said, we are still flawed.

Yes they shot extremely well but I think we also gave them confidence early on with how we played and the 3 pointers became contagious from there.  Overall we did fairly well limiting them inside and closing in on the lane but that opened up the perimeter.  We picked our poison and lost.

We still couldn't get a win either way.  Look at the first round scores with Detroit, it could be argued they played the Cavs just as good as we did.

[Jody23]

If the Hawks want the fans to be great, then the fans should demand they try to be great too.  So I don't think the fans response is an overreaction.  I don't think blowing it up is the answer, but settling for mediocrity isn't either.

And Cleveland is playing very good basketball.  But, alot of what they did against the Hawks is the Hawks' own fault.  I do believe a large number of those made threes against the Hawks were uncontested.

 

[Germantor]

Everyone on here over reacts and some of the worst fans ever!!! 

[Thomas]

Yeah I agree AU. Besides the blowout in Cleveland we were competitive and really close but couldn't score at the end of any of the games. About the rebounds from a previous post, yeah we won that battle in game one but with the Cavs shooting the way they did we had to have more offensive rebounds to improve our scoring. We sure didn't shut down their threes. Since we  were not hitting threes well then a rebound and a two foot bucket would really have helped especially in the two close games in Atlanta. One rebound or one made shot would have won game four.  

[yardbird]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

Aside from the loss to Cleveland or what Toronto is doing, we still are a flawed team.  Mainly our defensive rebounds.   Our defensive rebounds allowed second chance opps and is part of the reason why we lost close games to Cleveland.  Moreover, they were able to score on us at will.  When we had leads, there was an uneasy feeling that it wouldn't hold.   It shouldn't be that way.  Keeping the same team is keeping the same problems.   I would just like to see us address them.  I know that there are some that want to tear the team up to get one superstar.  I don't know if we're that far along.  It's just going to be delicate this offseason.  This offseason will make us or break us for years to come. 

I agree there's work to do, shown by my point about adding a physical big to address the defensive rebounding.  I'm not suggesting we keep the same team, but don't think it wise to give up Horford, who will be coveted elsewhere.  He's not a superstar, but he is a max player in this NBA and will thrive in an environment where he's a second or third option.  The elements we are missing from the current roster are an athletic wing, rebounding/consistent rim protection and scoring off the dribble.  Lose Al and we are also missing a second stretch big, a big with the foot speed to defend the perimeter and push the fast break (his foot speed is rare and underrated, IMO).  I think adding the physical big and an athletic two way wing player is achievable, while adding a superstar is unrealistic.  If we try to build a team to beat the Cleveland we faced in this year's playoffs, we fail.  But, add some interior physicality and additional ability to create our own shot and we can compete with Cleveland so long as they don't shoot 51% from 3.  They won't do that forever, perhaps not again.  When the 4th perimeter option is able to hit consistently, it's just not your day.  Don't blow up the team just because the stars lined up for Cleveland in one series.

[ATLSmith]

42 minutes ago, Germantor said:

Everyone on here over reacts and some of the worst fans ever!!! 

Not sure if I'd go that far.  Most of the negative posts are fans venting frustration, which is understandable.  They just want to see the Hawks succeed.  Although, it may not always come across that way.

[Thomas]

5 hours ago, Germantor said:

Everyone on here over reacts and some of the worst fans ever!!! 

Ever seen or heard a comment by a Philly fan about  any of their teams. Believe they are ahead of us in qualification for that title of worst ever. Atlanta sports radio has one of those emotionally twisted Philly fans that most people choose not to listen to. Kincade.  

[AHF]

When I look at our non-Cleveland playoff series the last two seasons, I see us looking good but not great.  I.e., good to beat significantly flawed opponents but not a real contender.  Beating teams like Boston, Washington and the Nets 4-2 doesn't show any kind of dominance.  Just a solid second tier, non-contender team similar to Memphis at their peak.

[yardbird]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

When I look at our non-Cleveland playoff series the last two seasons, I see us looking good but not great.  I.e., good to beat significantly flawed opponents but not a real contender.  Beating teams like Boston, Washington and the Nets 4-2 doesn't show any kind of dominance.  Just a solid second tier, non-contender team similar to Memphis at their peak.

So, what's the best way to improve?  Essentially start over by letting Al go, or add components to our good team that let us compete with Cleveland if they come back to Earth?  It can be argued that we are the 2nd best team in the east right now and we're not catching Cleveland unless we attract Durant (pipedream) or get terrible, win the lottery, draft the next LeBron and wait for him to mature.  In the latter case, current LeBron is retired by then anyway.  Isn't it smarter to add a physical big and a Jamal Crawford to what we have, while assuming Cleveland plays less than perfect basketball over the next few years?  At least then, we are competitive.  Rooting for a non-playoff team the next few years doesn't interest me.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Diesel said:

Aside from the loss to Cleveland or what Toronto is doing, we still are a flawed team.  Mainly our defensive rebounds.   Our defensive rebounds allowed second chance opps and is part of the reason why we lost close games to Cleveland.  Moreover, they were able to score on us at will.  When we had leads, there was an uneasy feeling that it wouldn't hold.   It shouldn't be that way.  Keeping the same team is keeping the same problems.   I would just like to see us address them.  I know that there are some that want to tear the team up to get one superstar.  I don't know if we're that far along.  It's just going to be delicate this offseason.  This offseason will make us or break us for years to come. 

I agree except the rebounding to some extent.  When we badly needed a rebound we couldn't get one but in general we hung with them in that department.

We failed miserably at our offensive execution in 4th quarters and compounding the issue was our subpar defense in those same stretches - can't be horrible at both at the same time.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

When I look at our non-Cleveland playoff series the last two seasons, I see us looking good but not great.  I.e., good to beat significantly flawed opponents but not a real contender.  Beating teams like Boston, Washington and the Nets 4-2 doesn't show any kind of dominance.  Just a solid second tier, non-contender team similar to Memphis at their peak.

That's true of all these East teams.

[Jody23]

Honestly, both Horford and Millsap are the 3rd or 4th best players on a team that can win a title in today's league.  You can add whoever you want, as long as those two guys are your best players, the destination is mediocrity.  The Hawks don't want to blow it up and jump in the lottery.  So, there options are...

1. Trading for a younger veteran and hope you can develop him into a really good to great player.

2. Hope that a guy who can develop into a great player falls to the middle or end of the draft.

3. Attract a great player in free agency.

The problem with 1 and 2 is even if you can get a guy that fits that description, it takes time to develop him.  Horford is 30, Millsap is 31 and Korver is 35 already.

[benhillboy]

Cleveland has shown the rest of the East cannot be competitive.  How can it when LeBron's player option next season is still less than what Joe Johnson made this year.  Pile on the ownership's willingness to dive deep into the luxury tax and it's a lost cause really.

I gotta give Griffin credit.  The Hawks succeeded at keeping them out of the paint, no one would've guessed they'd have the best three point shooting series of All Time.  What else was Toronto supposed to do but spread out and press the three point line?  They're getting mauled at the rim.  If you're a decent GM you get what your owner paid for.

Edited May 20, 2016 by benhillboy

[yardbird]

36 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

Cleveland has shown the rest of the East cannot be competitive.  How can it when LeBron's player option next season is still less than what Joe Johnson made this year.  Pile on the ownership's willingness to dive deep into the luxury tax and it's a lost cause really.

I gotta give Griffin credit.  The Hawks succeeded at keeping them out of the paint, no one would've guessed they'd have the best three point shooting series of All Time.  What else was Toronto supposed to do but spread out and press the three point line?  They're getting mauled at the rim.  If you're a decent GM you get what your owner paid for.

I'm no capologist, but shouldn't we be able to pick up a big to protect the rim and rebound (like Detroit did with Drummond), plus a wing who can score on his own in late clock/late game situations (if THJr. had Korver's nerve and shooting consistency, we'd have this), and bring back Horford all without going too deep into luxury territory?  Then, we're competitive if Cleveland doesn't shoot lights out again, which I don't think they will.  This won't give us an advantage over Cleveland, but will give us a fighting chance against them and the western teams.  I agree with Jody23 about seeking a young vet, a draft pick or a free agent, but those are lesser odds of happening.  I don't think we have tradable assets that would net an up and coming vet (Jeff or Dennis won't get you this, unlikely Millsap will and Al isn't under contract anymore), we're not luring a top free agent, and we can develop the late draft pick without becoming non-competitive (giving up Horford).  Philips would be like a morgue if we go back into the lottery, and I think our crowds turn off free agents as it is.

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, yardbird said:

I'm no capologist, but shouldn't we be able to pick up a big to protect the rim and rebound (like Detroit did with Drummond), plus a wing who can score on his own in late clock/late game situations (if THJr. had Korver's nerve and shooting consistency, we'd have this), and bring back Horford all without going too deep into luxury territory?  Then, we're competitive if Cleveland doesn't shoot lights out again, which I don't think they will.  This won't give us an advantage over Cleveland, but will give us a fighting chance against them and the western teams.  I agree with Jody23 about seeking a young vet, a draft pick or a free agent, but those are lesser odds of happening.  I don't think we have tradable assets that would net an up and coming vet (Jeff or Dennis won't get you this, unlikely Millsap will and Al isn't under contract anymore), we're not luring a top free agent, and we can develop the late draft pick without becoming non-competitive (giving up Horford).  Philips would be like a morgue if we go back into the lottery, and I think our crowds turn off free agents as it is.

@yardbird I'm  unclear what you are asking? Are you talking about draftinng guys like Drummond and the shooter or gettig them via free agency?

[BigDog90]

4 hours ago, Jody23 said:

If the Hawks want the fans to be great, then the fans should demand they try to be great too.  So I don't think the fans response is an overreaction.  I don't think blowing it up is the answer, but settling for mediocrity isn't either.

And Cleveland is playing very good basketball.  But, alot of what they did against the Hawks is the Hawks' own fault.  I do believe a large number of those made threes against the Hawks were uncontested.

 

 

I just wonder what would get management's attention.  They've dealt with low ticket sales before.