"Catch a Rising Star," or "The Case for Allen Crabbe"

[sturt]

So the attitude of many around here is, if you can't get Durant, or at least Derozan, you're just not going to improve this roster sufficiently to give us a shot at the next level.

Probably true.

So, is that it? Is that all? Might we just as well blow it up?

It's easy to think that.

But I'd like to present an alternative, which is to assess whether there might be an upward-trending RFA worth the risk whose current team would be hard pressed to justify a big contract.

You're already ahead of me, since you read the subject header.... I present to you Allen Crabbe.

Allen Crabbe is not an elite talent at 24 yrs old. He isn't even considered a starter for the Blazers.

But how likely is it that he's going to build on what he's achieved so far? I think so. Could he start for the Hawks? I'm pretty certain of that much.

What would it take to obtain him? Taking a risk by extending a contract offer to him that is too pricey for the Blazers to give to a guy who isn't going to supplant the incumbent (McCollum). What is the number that would achieve that? Only my guess, but I'd imagine $15m/per is in that ballpark.

Wow. Geez. That's a lot. Yes, but it's several million from the max ($23m).

Is he worth it? All I can say for sure is, there's a lot of reason to think so.... based on his comps vs. Derozan after appx . the same number of games:

But you just drafted 3 wings. Is it really wise to make this kind of commitment? On that one, I have to say almost certainly yes.... this is a player who you already know can play at this level.

And wrapping this thing up before I turn it over to the jury gathered here... thoughts from some Blazers media types talking about the prospect of his exit vs. the Blazers replacing him....

Quote

 

 

4. If you have to choose between Allen Crabbe and a free agent wing, who do you go after?

(CM) Crabbe is exactly what you drafted, a good shooter who needs work on his all-around game. He may not have the next level stuff Lillard and McCollum have on offense, and may never be a starter, but that doesn’t make him a bad player or a risky signing. If Crabbe is willing to take a reasonable deal, go for it, but if he demands a big contract you have to do what’s best for all involved and let Crabbe test the open market and take a shot at signing versatile albeit inconsistent players like Harrison Barnes and Evan Turner.

(BK) If the debate is Allen Crabbe vs. Kevin Durant or LeBron James, the answer is easy. But assuming we’re talking about free-agent wings who are actually on Portland’s radar, it has to be Crabbe. The 24-year-old has added to the Blazers’ culture and established himself as a legitimate three-and-D threat. As Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale recently wrote, Crabbe could be one of the Association’s surprising max-contract candidates this summer. While it’s possible Portland chooses not to compete in a negotiating battle over the career 7.0-points-per-game player, it’s also possible the team values him for what he brings to the table: solid defense and consistent shooting. Crabbe needs to be a priority, especially considering the chemistry this team needs to retain moving forward.

(JW) Again, Kevin Durant is a given. I would also inquire about restricted free agents Bradley Beal and Harrison Barnes. It’s doubtful Washington lets Beal go, but if Blazers basketball czar Neil Olshey wants to screw with the Warriors, he’ll tender a max offer to Barnes like he did to Enes Kanter last year; Olshey is the sole reason why Oklahoma City is paying a backup center more than $70 million a year.

The difference between Barnes and Kanter is that Barnes’ versatility and youth would make him a perfect fit alongside Damian Lillard, McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu, and the other members of the young core Portland’s assembled. The Blazers can even afford both Barnes and Crabbe, which would be a huge coup.

(GT) In NBA Free Agency, it’s all about the price. I am not a proponent of a “home town” discount. I think that NBA players only have so long to make their money, so they need to sign the big-money contracts while they can. I do think, however, that some players prefer to stay put and simply won’t look into free agency as hard as others. I can see Crabbe feeling comfortable in Portland, being a 6th man of the year candidate for the next few years, and taking a bit less money to stay put. This group of free agent wings doesn’t impress me at all, besides DeMar DeRozan, who is staying put or heading to Los Angeles. Crabbe has an established role and a familiarity in Portland.

(PM) Allen Crabbe is a nice, young offensive player on the upswing of his career that provides the Blazers with consistent outside scoring threat that opens up room for their two star guards to operate, and even shown some flashes of legit defensive prowess at times. That, in and of itself, is a good enough reason to keep Crabbe in the fold going forward.

But, his on-court skills aren’t the biggest reason to pick Crabbe over going after another free agent wing. The biggest reason is his contract, and more specifically, his minimal cap hold and Restricted Free Agent status. To put it simply, the Blazers can use virtually none of their cap space to retain Crabbe’s rights, thus allowing them to spend their money on other, more pressing needs, specifically at the power forward and center positions.

 

http://oregonsportsnews.com/team-news/portland-trail-blazers/portland-trail-blazers-offseason-roundtable-who-stays-who-goes-who-do-you-sign.html

 

So put me down for some Crabbe, please.

 

[BigDog90]

I'd love him in ATL but I'm sure POR will match any deal. I guess Harkless would be the guy they lose.

[Misha Owens]

Rather have Harkless

[sturt]

Not necessarily against that, but would want to study it more. Nice thing about RFAs.... you offer, and if you can't reel the fish in, you can go on to the next one.... so, offer one, and if you don't get him, then offer the other.

[RWF]

I would be for it. When I mean 'rebuild', I just don't want to tank (that's an option). If we can get young potential that keeps the team good, I'm all for that too.

 

What I'm not for is to keep the same team, putting more money into that core, while they all age past their prime.

 

I just want some youth injected into the team, that can POTENTIALLY be better than our current situation.

 

I'm for signing Crabbe.

Edited June 25, 2016 by RWF

[Guest]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

Not necessarily against that, but would want to study it more. Nice thing about RFAs.... you offer, and if you can't reel the fish in, you can go on to the next one.... so, offer one, and if you don't get him, then offer the other.

I love Crabbe. I think it's a good idea. Problem with jumping from one RFA to another isn't that easy because we would have to wait for the period for their original team to match that offer. So you should be somewhat confident that when you reach out to a RFA, that they have interest in you as well and not just using you as leverage. 

 

Having said that, I love Crabbe and I also love Harkless. Lot of Blazer players with big hearts, I think it has something to do with their point guard...possibly.

[DBac]

I remember being very impressed by his playoffs play. I would not mind this at all.

[MrYellow]

I like Crabbe, but actually Portland had a (slightly) better Net rtg with him off the court.

[benhillboy]

He had moments in the playoffs but nothing stood out to me. McCollum and Aminu are the Blazers gems.

[Guest]

RFA is so tough to negotiate. Unless he signs the contract right away, you are tying up your money waiting for his team to either match or decline, (I think it's 3 days) meanwhile other players are dropping like flies.

[JTB]

Unrealistic at this point. I would love to have him but I know Portland is going to match any offer for him .

[Guest]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

RFA is so tough to negotiate. Unless he signs the contract right away, you are tying up your money waiting for his team to either match or decline, (I think it's 3 days) meanwhile other players are dropping like flies.

You really don't read my posts do you...lol. I just said that a few posts above. I'll chalk that one up to you having to deal with Diesel. Lol

[sturt]

Tough to justify paying your back-up SG $15m (or more).

Tough to justify.... if you really/truly/honestly are sold out that all other possible acquisitions amount to only treading water (or worse)... being unwilling to take the risk b/c of what you otherwise might miss out signing while POR deliberates.

Given more thought since posting last night, to me, this really comes down to either this move, or putting your faith in the idea that the progress Baze made this season is going to continue to even greater things... ie, that we have a star in the making in him.

I don't dismiss the possibility. It's something that has to be objectively and seriously evaluated. Baze hasn't just elevated his game offensively each season he's been here, but he's even improved in a significant way on his defensive numbers.  The case can be made that Baze is on a path to elite defender status, and with any continued improvement offensively, we might have an exceptional player developing right in front of our eyes. All-Star? Elite defenders don't make All-Star games. But for that reason, I'm not sure that the measure of whether he projects as a future All-Star is actually meaningful to our purposes of competing for a championship. To wit, DMC was the only one of the starting 5 season before last to not make the ASG, and yet, hardly anyone fails to recognize his value to our own team's success.

But what still might give Crabbe an edge is age... at nearly 3 years younger than Baze, there's more reason to believe in the likelihood of his continuing to develop, and, at that, the likelihood of a higher ceiling.

I think there are good arguments for both.

In terms of what ideally would happen, I'm inclined to think Crabbe is a slightly better option.

In terms of will actually happen, because signing Baze is a simpler process and we have an upper-hand in signing him, that probably will be what tilts things in favor of that option.

 

Edited June 25, 2016 by sturt

[ViewsFromTheSquawk]

Id take either or but I would prefer Crabbe over Harkless

[sturt]

7 hours ago, MrYellow said:

I like Crabbe, but actually Portland had a (slightly) better Net rtg with him off the court.

First, the more you play with the second unit, the more likely this is going to be the case. But too, as @benhillboy said in the post right after this, McCollum wasn't chopped liver, of course. But that's another reason their left brains would be disinclined to match.