hawksfanatic, love your cap articles but you are wrong in your latest article broski

[NBASupes]

I like to refer to your first post-Teague chart which is accurate. 

Your Teague article: http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2016/6/22/12008602/jeff-teague-trade-atlanta-hawks-salary-cap-update

 

In the event that Atlanta intends to stay over the cap (which I detail much more here), nothing has actually changed. Trading away Jeff Teague generates a $8,000,000 traded player exception which carries a cap hold and the team will start off with $97,072,715 on their cap sheet. The team can easily expunge this amount, and the various other exceptions, by renouncing their rights to create cap space. It's fairly likely that Atlanta intends to use their cap space this summer, which would effectively make the rights to the Teague trade exception, Kirk Hinrich, Non-Taxpayer MLE, Bi-Annual Exception, and Holiday trade exception a total of $24,365,692 in worthless cap holds. So let's get rid of them for the moment.

Player	2016--2017	2017--2018	Total
Paul Millsap	$20,072,033	$21,472,407PO	$20,072,033
Al Horford	$18,000,000	---	---
Tiago Splitter	$8,550,000	$12,825,000	$8,550,000
Kyle Korver	$5,239,437	$9,954,931	$5,239,437
Thabo Sefolosha	$3,850,000	$7,315,000	$3,850,000
Mike Scott	$3,333,334NG	$6,333,335	$3,333,334
Kirk Hinrich	$5,692,416	---	---
Kent Bazemore	$2,600,000	---	---
Dennis Schröder	$2,708,582	$6,771,455	$2,708,582
Tim Hardaway Jr.	$2,281,605	$5,704,013	$2,708,582
Kris Humphries	$1,200,000	---	---
Walter Tavares	$1,000,000	$1,014,746NG	$1,000,000
Mike Muscala	$1,015,696NG	$1,014,746	$1,015,696
Lamar Patterson	$874,636NG	$1,014,746	$874,636
2016 NBA Draft (#12)	$1,931,900	$2,018,800	$3,950,700
2016 NBA Draft (#21)	$1,249,800	$1,306,000	$2,555,800
Total (only guaranteed)	$46,883,357	---	---
Total	$52,107,023	---	---
Total + FA cap holds	$79,599,439	---	---
Exceptions	$17,473,276	---	---
Notes: Red denotes cap hold; PO-Player Option; TO-Team Option; NG-Nonguaranteed. Exceptions that carry cap holds are in the last row. The Holiday trade exception expires 2/18/2017 and is $947,276. The Teague trade exception expires one year after the trade is officially made and is $8,000,000. The Non-Taxpayer MLE is for $5,628,000 and the Bi-Annual Exception is for $2,898,000.

1. Coming into FA, we had 52,107,023 in salary with 12 players (two being draft picks) You left out Prince in your article and mention we had 13 players which is wrong. This makes a massive difference and stop estimating as well, every cent matters in these projections. 

We have signed Bazemore and Dwight Howard for a combined first year total by your numbers of 38,218,377 million with now 14 players. 

Add 38,218,377 + 52,107,023 = 90,325,400 is our total salary with 14 players. Due to this, we now have only who can even possibly have his Humphries who can even have his cap hold if this stands once Dwight and Kent is officially signed. We also officially lose Teague's TPE once these two are signed.

That leaves us with 94,000,000 - 90,325,400 = 3,674,600 of cap space. 

Al's cap hold is 18,000,000. We need to clear 14,325,400 in salary for Al. As you stated, this involves cap gymnastics. 

After doing the numbers, Tim Hardaway Jr. is out of the question. He doesn't make enough so lets use Thabo to see the different which both work if paired with Scott and Splitter. 

Trade Thabo Plan: 

Splitter- 8,550,000

Thabo- 3,850,000

Scott- 3,333,334

Total= 15,733,334

Clearly, this works. We cleared over 14,325,399 which is needed to hold Al's BR.  Also gives us 1,407,934 in cap space.

Tim is short by about 160,461  dollars. 

 

2. Another part where you were wrong was after we sign Al. You mentioned we only get the $2.898 million Room Mid-Level Exception and minimum salaried players. While this is true is things stand, if we resign Al we get Non-Taxpayer MLE and the Bi-Annual Exception. This gives us MLE ($5.628 million) and BAE ($2.203 million) to sign in free agency.  This is critical if we want to get a PG and a resign Humphries.

We can still sign Humphries with the MLE or BAE even renouncing his Early bird rights via Larry Coon and Article 41. 

Quote

41. What does renouncing a player mean?

As detailed in question number 38, free agents continue to be included in team salary. By renouncing a player, a team gives up its right to use the Larry Bird, Early Bird, or Non-Bird exception (see question number 25) to re-sign that player. A renounced player no longer counts toward team salary, so teams use renouncement to gain additional cap room. Teams are still permitted to re-sign renounced players, but only with cap room or an exception other than the Bird exception¹. The exception to this rule is that an Early Bird free agent, at the team's option, can be renounced to the Non-Bird level. A team might do this in order to sign the player to a one-year contract, instead of the minimum two years required by the Early Bird exception.

If the player does not sign with any team (his prior team or any other team) for the entire season, then his renouncement continues. In other words, the team is not permitted to renounce a player, let him sit idle for the year, and then re-sign him the following summer using Bird rights. However, if the player re-signs with his prior team, then his renouncement is no longer in effect when his contract ends. For example, if a team renounces their Larry Bird rights to a player, then re-signs that player to a one-year contract using cap room, the player will be a Larry Bird free agent once again the following summer.

After renouncing a player, a team can still trade the player in a sign-and-trade agreement (see question number 91).

---

1

The team is bound to the restrictions on salary, contract length and raises associated with the means they use to sign the player -- for example, if a team renounces its Bird free agent and then re-signs him with the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception, the contract must conform to the requirements of the Non-Taxayer Mid-Level exception. However, if a team renounces its Bird free agent and later re-signs him using its cap room, the player can still receive the contract length and raises associated with the Bird exception. This is because the maximum contract length and raises in a cap room signing are determined by the player's original free agent status, and are not affected by renouncement. http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q41

 

The issues is not moving Thabo or Scott. That will be extremely easy and likely to get us some legit assets in trade to the point you simply keep Thabo and see if you can package him with Millsap and get a great collection of assets. Splitter is the tough one due to 

A. Teams know we need to trade him. 

B. While his value is extremely fair, teams know we need to trade him. 

C.  See A and B. 

D. Teams who could be interested like Houston, Boston, Portland and Washington are trying to get Al and they aren't going to help us at all. This means teams like Dallas, Brooklyn who has incentive to do this and several others with a lot of cap space could be open to helping us out. 

Most Likely: Brooklyn. They need a backup center. Check. They need Boston to be worse than them. Check. They need a center who knows the Atlanta system. Double Check. They seem like the obvious trade partner for Splitter. 

 

Here is HF's latest article: http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2016/7/2/12086718/nba-free-agency-2016-al-horford-atlanta-hawks-salary-cap

 

Thanks Squawk! 

Supes

Edited July 2, 2016 by NBASupes

[mrhonline]

Reread the section where HF talks about his cap projections being off by 400K (via info from HeatHoops).

IOW, it depends on what the cap comes in at...

[NBASupes]

5 minutes ago, mrhonline said:

Reread the section where HF talks about his cap projections being off by 400K (via info from HeatHoops).

IOW, it depends on what the cap comes in at...

If the cap is at 94,000,000. What I have above is accurate. If it's at 94,400,000 as HeatHoops is projecting. We are all off.  This also means that Atlanta could get rid of Splitter without having to trade him to stay under the cap to keep Al's BR.

Edited July 2, 2016 by NBASupes

[RandomFan]

NBASupes calling out hawksfanatic on accuracy? Dis gone be good!

[thecampster]

SMH...Hawksfanatic making an omission is not "wrong" its an omission and the kind of thing he regularly corrects in updated articles (having written 5 books myself, believe me...mistakes and omissions happen).  Most of your post is a direct restating of my earlier posts, all of which I give credit to Hawksfanatic for giving the appropriate background info. If Hawksfanatic came on here and corrected my numbers, I would agree with his assessment until I had a chance to double check my own math. Then I'd go back to him and ask him to show me where I'm wrong if I can't find it.

[NBASupes]

Let's assume Atlanta trades for Danilo Gallinari who makes 15,050,000 and has a trade kicker in which he could waive. Let's assume he does. 

 

We trade Millsap and Thabo for Danilo since Denver has cap room.  

We would have 12,546,633 of new cap space. We could SA Splitter and would would have enough to resign Al. 

Gives us a total of 12,546,633 at the proj of 94.0 salary cap. If you cut Tiago it's equals- 18,246,633.

The issue of course comes if Gallinari wants his trade kicker. We would then have to cut Patterson. 

Meaning if Gallo wants his trade kicker, it cannot exceed 1,121,269 or if the cap is at 94.4, it cannot exceed 1,521,269

 

The best trade might be Rudy Gay and WCS for Millsap/Thabo. This frees more than enough money once Mike Scott is traded for a pick since WCS makes him replaceable. 

 

 

Edited July 2, 2016 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, thecampster said:

SMH...Hawksfanatic making an omission is not "wrong" its an omission and the kind of thing he regularly corrects in updated articles (having written 5 books myself, believe me...mistakes and omissions happen).  Most of your post is a direct restating of my earlier posts, all of which I give credit to Hawksfanatic for giving the appropriate background info. If Hawksfanatic came on here and corrected my numbers, I would agree with his assessment until I had a chance to double check my own math. Then I'd go back to him and ask him to show me where I'm wrong if I can't find it.

I wasn't disrespecting him, just letting him know where he was wrong since I don't comment on Peachtreehoops, I just read the articles. 

[nathan2331]

Why don't you PM or email him so he can get back to you sooner?

Sent from my SM-N910P using Tapatalk

[NBASupes]

Honest the Kings trade is the best scenario. We don't have to trade Splitter, we can just stretch him. We can cut or trade Scott and we could sign Hump to a 4 years 12 million. It has to be at or under 3,020,110 if the cap is at 94.4 or 2,620,110 at or under if the cap is 94. Clearly, trading Splitter is most ideal. 

4 minutes ago, nathan2331 said:

Why don't you PM or email him so he can get back to you sooner?

Sent from my SM-N910P using Tapatalk

We don't like each other. We blocked each other from that form of contact. I literally only read his cap threads. 

[sturt]

My mind instantly tracks back to....

 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Honest the Kings trade is the best scenario. We don't have to trade Splitter, we can just stretch him. We can cut or trade Scott and we could sign Hump to a 4 years 12 million. It has to be at or under 3,020,110 if the cap is at 94.4 or 2,620,110 at or under if the cap is 94. Clearly, trading Splitter is most ideal. 

We don't like each other. We blocked each other from that form of contact. I literally only read his cap threads. 

We aren't trading for Gay, he sucks.

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, Spud2Nique said:

We aren't trading for Gay, he sucks.

I would say Gay for Sap is a terrible deal and one someone should get fired for but WCS and Gay is solid value for an expiring like Sap. That's a deal that would interest the brass who was in love with WCS last year till he got drafted too high. 

Edited July 2, 2016 by NBASupes

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I would say Gay for Sap is a terrible deal and one someone should get fired for but WCS and Gay is solid value for an expiring like Sap. That's a deal that would interest the brass who was in love with WCS last year till he got drafted too high. 

We already got Dwight...if we add Gay we are significantly drop our bball IQ.

[NBASupes]

17 minutes ago, Spud2Nique said:

We already got Dwight...if we add Gay we are significantly drop our bball IQ.

You know, I am not sure about that. I been watching Sac games and he tends to have the highest BBIQ with Collison and Rondo. Back in Toronto, I though he was stupid. 

[NBASupes]

@Spud2Nique

 

Rudy is a player with clear strengths and weaknesses. 

His strengths: 

Scoring. A potential tweeter #1/#2 option offensively. 

Versatility. He can defend three positions and quite well. 

Clutch. One of the most clutch players in the NBA. 

Moves well off the ball. Think of Bazemore. Not great like DMC or Kyle at it. 

Weaknesses: 

Decision making with the ball. Can take poor shots, think of Dennis. 

Dribbling. He is as effective dribbling as Carroll. The issue is, at least Carroll wasn't going to force the issue 8 out of 10 times. While with Gay, 4 or 5 out of 10 times, he will. This shows in his shooting charts. 53.8 eFG with no dribbles which is very good for a SF. 54.7 eFG with one dribble which is even better. Then it gets bad, real bad.  44.4 eFG with 2 dribbles. 42.9 with 3-6 and then at a whooping 3.6% frequency 37.5 eFG with 7+ dribbles. Who the hell is coaching Rudy Gay and letting him dribble out like he's Joe or Kobe. At 3.6% freq, that's insane. 

Scoring on tight defense is another issue. His percentages are average role player levels when he gets shots like a star. That has to change. 

That's about it. 

[NBASupes]

For those who don't know. 

[Bankingitbig]

I don't see anything wrong with his latest article here: http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2016/7/2/12086718/nba-free-agency-2016-al-horford-atlanta-hawks-salary-cap?_ga=1.4870707.1671827576.1465334943

We have $70,107,023 in committed cap holds across 13 roster spots, as he states, if we renounce Kirk and Humphries and keep Horford. See below:

Paul Millsap		20,072,033
Kyle Korver		5,239,437
Thabo Sefolosha		3,850,000
Dennis Schröder		2,708,582
Tim Hardaway Jr.		2,281,605
Walter Tavares		1,000,000
Mike Muscala		1,015,696
Taurean Prince		1,931,900
Deandre Bembry		1,249,800
Al Horford		18,000,000
Tiago Spliiter		8,550,000
Mike Scott		3,333,334
Lamar Patterson		874,636

He is assuming a salary cap of $94,400,000, which was estimated by Albert Nahmad. This means that dropping Splitter, Scott and THJ would fit Dwight and Baze plus Horford. Math is here: $70,107,023 - $8,550,000 - $3,333,334 - $2,281,605 = $55,942,084 + Dwight $22,488,039 + Kent $15,730,338 = $94,160,461.

Alternatively, I believe we could also drop Prince and Patterson instead of THJ in that scenario, but I don't see that as being likely.

 

[NBASupes]

36 minutes ago, Bankingitbig said:

I don't see anything wrong with his latest article here: http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2016/7/2/12086718/nba-free-agency-2016-al-horford-atlanta-hawks-salary-cap?_ga=1.4870707.1671827576.1465334943

We have $70,107,023 in committed cap holds across 13 roster spots, as he states, if we renounce Kirk and Humphries and keep Horford. See below:

Paul Millsap		20,072,033
Kyle Korver		5,239,437
Thabo Sefolosha		3,850,000
Dennis Schröder		2,708,582
Tim Hardaway Jr.		2,281,605
Walter Tavares		1,000,000
Mike Muscala		1,015,696
Taurean Prince		1,931,900
Deandre Bembry		1,249,800
Al Horford		18,000,000
Tiago Spliiter		8,550,000
Mike Scott		3,333,334
Lamar Patterson		874,636

He is assuming a salary cap of $94,400,000, which was estimated by Albert Nahmad. This means that dropping Splitter, Scott and THJ would fit Dwight and Baze plus Horford. Math is here: $70,107,023 - $8,550,000 - $3,333,334 - $2,281,605 = $55,942,084 + Dwight $22,488,039 + Kent $15,730,338 = $94,160,461.

Alternatively, I believe we could also drop Prince and Patterson instead of THJ in that scenario, but I don't see that as being likely.

 

We have 14th players. 12 players with two draft holds. Bembry and Prince.

I am not on my PC so I can't proof through other information nor do I know what heath oops is saying

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

We have 14th players. 12 players with two draft holds. Bembry and Prince.

I am not on my PC so I can't proof through other information nor do I know what heath oops is saying

Sssshhhh...just move the couch already.

[Guest]

There is absolutely nothing wrong with what I have written. If anyone finds an "error", then you need to take a step back and try to figure out how you screwed up.

I've laid out everything you need to know to figure out the cap situation in my most previous article and the one before.