Give me a good reason THJ shouldn't be considered to start

[Guest]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I didn't literally mean whether they could sign him, I know they could sign him to a max deal if they really want.  It is a question of whether the market will price him out of what they are willing to invest given what we invested in Baze and the rookies this year and our needs for the total roster.

We also invested a 1st round pick in THjr and  watching him develop this year.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

We also invested a 1st round pick in THjr and  watching him develop this year.

Agreed.  But since we no longer control his price point it comes down to how much you can stomach for salary.  We don't need two borderline starter/reserve SGs for $17M or so with Baze and THJr and the fact we drafted two swingmen last season is an indication that management saw departures coming.  Perhaps that is Thabo and Korver and we are planning to run some combination of $$ Tim / $$ Kent / rookie contract Prince / rookie contract Bembry going forward but as relatively cheap as I'd expect Thabo and Korver to be I'd assume there is a go/no go price point for THJr.  Will be interesting.

[Guest]

 

[macdaddy]

14 hours ago, AHF said:

Agreed.  But since we no longer control his price point it comes down to how much you can stomach for salary.  We don't need two borderline starter/reserve SGs for $17M or so with Baze and THJr and the fact we drafted two swingmen last season is an indication that management saw departures coming.  Perhaps that is Thabo and Korver and we are planning to run some combination of $$ Tim / $$ Kent / rookie contract Prince / rookie contract Bembry going forward but as relatively cheap as I'd expect Thabo and Korver to be I'd assume there is a go/no go price point for THJr.  Will be interesting.

That's a great point.   Korver and Thabo were experienced vets that we signed for low cost deals.   So the fact that they weren't great wings was no surprise.    Investing $30+ million in Baze/Tim if neither has become a solid, go to scorer would make it difficult for us to put together a contender unless Prince morphs into Kawhi pretty quickly.   

This year is really interesting for the Hawks and next year even more so.   

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

That's a great point.   Korver and Thabo were experienced vets that we signed for low cost deals.   So the fact that they weren't great wings was no surprise.    Investing $30+ million in Baze/Tim if neither has become a solid, go to scorer would make it difficult for us to put together a contender unless Prince morphs into Kawhi pretty quickly.   

This year is really interesting for the Hawks and next year even more so.   

Low cost deals (now they are) ????  The squawk went nuts with Korver's 4 year/24 million dollar deal, complaining we would be paying him $5 million at the end of the deal when he is 36 years. Same with Thabo's 3yr/$12 million - we don't hear a peep about those deals NOW.  My how times have changed.

The difference I see with both Baze/Tim vs Korver/Thabo is they are both young players with room to improve.

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Low cost deals (now they are) ????  The squawk went nuts with Korver's 4 year/24 million dollar deal, complaining we would be paying him $5 million at the end of the deal when he is 36 years. Same with Thabo's 3yr/$12 million - we don't hear a peep about those deals NOW.  My how times have changed.

The difference I see with both Baze/Tim vs Korver/Thabo is they are both young players with room to improve.

I think 'went nuts' is an exagerration.   A few people went nuts but even at the time those aren't contracts that are really eating a ton of cap space.   I'm mean it's 3 years later and we're talking about paying similar wings 4-5 times those amounts.   Sure the cap has gone up and salaries have gone up but they haven't quadrupled across the board.   I mean the cap potentially is what 40-50% higher than it was when Korver signed?   

[Thomas]

Pretty funny when signing Thabo at four per there was some static though nothing like the signing of Baze's new one. Thabo's value now is so much higher than that paltry (today's standards of course) salary. Do see the problem with a possible upcoming contract like you all mentioned with Tim while already drowning right now in Baze's deal. A little scary there. 

[AHF]

33 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I think 'went nuts' is an exagerration.   A few people went nuts but even at the time those aren't contracts that are really eating a ton of cap space.   I'm mean it's 3 years later and we're talking about paying similar wings 4-5 times those amounts.   Sure the cap has gone up and salaries have gone up but they haven't quadrupled across the board.   I mean the cap potentially is what 40-50% higher than it was when Korver signed?   

More to the point - both were below MLE price when they signed so comparing that to Korver and Thabo's deals is comparing apples to oranges since Baze is making 3x the MLE.

The projected cap is $102M for next year and if THJr is signed for $17M like Baze then we will be looking at 33% of our cap tied up by two SGs neither of whom is a clear starter.

Like I said, it will be interesting.

[JTB]

51 minutes ago, AHF said:

More to the point - both were below MLE price when they signed so comparing that to Korver and Thabo's deals is comparing apples to oranges since Baze is making 3x the MLE.

The projected cap is $102M for next year and if THJr is signed for $17M like Baze then we will be looking at 33% of our cap tied up by two SGs neither of whom is a clear starter.

Like I said, it will be interesting.

We need to start THJ with the starters to find out if he's worth keeping at a 17m per contract. If THJ doesn't start I don't believe he can show what his true value is off the bench.  Just my 2 cents.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

More to the point - both were below MLE price when they signed so comparing that to Korver and Thabo's deals is comparing apples to oranges since Baze is making 3x the MLE.

The projected cap is $102M for next year and if THJr is signed for $17M like Baze then we will be looking at 33% of our cap tied up by two SGs neither of whom is a clear starter.

Like I said, it will be interesting.

THJr is more of a starter than Skip (BazeLess) or Kyle.  And don't start throwing nimbers at me.  I'm full-on eye-test on this one.

You're like a bizarro episode of Sesame Street.  I'mma start calling you Count von Count up in dis bish.

Ah, that's one FGA!  Hah, hah, huh!  Two FGAs ... hah, hah, huh!

[macdaddy]

Except Baze did start for a full year and was pretty effective before he got that contract.    I agree that Tim should be starting now, but it's not like Baze became a starter after we gave him the big deal. 

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Except Baze did start for a full year and was pretty effective before he got that contract.    I agree that Tim should be starting now, but it's not like Baze became a starter after we gave him the big deal. 

I'm contending he's never been an effective starter (assuming you're yelling at me) deal or no deal.

[Lurker]

The only time that Bazemore really was an effective starter was the first half of last season but even then the starting lineup wasn't fitting together well with him playing with the starters and it was getting bailed out by.....guess what.....the bench. The only reason why the starting lineup finished on the plus side of effectiveness was because of it's hot run in the spring last season and it did so with him playing pretty badly for the most part.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

I think 'went nuts' is an exagerration.   A few people went nuts but even at the time those aren't contracts that are really eating a ton of cap space.   I'm mean it's 3 years later and we're talking about paying similar wings 4-5 times those amounts.   Sure the cap has gone up and salaries have gone up but they haven't quadrupled across the board.   I mean the cap potentially is what 40-50% higher than it was when Korver signed?   

But it was the cap was at $58 million then. Some were complaining the only reason to bring back Kyle was if we were getting Howard then we ended up with Millsap and DMC - then the squawk really went nuts.

From 2004-2014 the cap moved by $15 million, that's 10 years.  Over the past 3 years it's jumped by $36 million.

The % of what is considered a max deal hasn't changed:

25% 0-6 years

30 % 7-9 years

35%  10+

What's changed

2 hours ago, AHF said:

More to the point - both were below MLE price when they signed so comparing that to Korver and Thabo's deals is comparing apples to oranges since Baze is making 3x the MLE.

The projected cap is $102M for next year and if THJr is signed for $17M like Baze then we will be looking at 33% of our cap tied up by two SGs neither of whom is a clear starter.

Like I said, it will be interesting.

Name a guy who was signed for the MLE this past season?  That's how much things have changed with the new cap figures.  MLE's were once for your 4th and 5th starter and your 6th man.  Now the MLE is going to vets who should be getting vet mins or your 12th rotation guy.

I've adjusted my thinking accordingly, so I just can't get bent all out of shaped over the deals.

The year of DMC's free agency, I started the year saying he is worth double his currently salary which would be $5 mil or the mid-level. Then talk of the new TV deal hit I said he would get anywhere from $7-$9 mil.  Then the crazy talk starting I said not a penny over $12 mil.  He signed for $15 million.

It's the nature of the beast - get used to it.

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

I'm contending he's never been an effective starter (assuming you're yelling at me) deal or no deal.

Of course i'm yelling at you.   Who else?   Nah, i'm just saying that if Tim goes the whole season coming off the bench for 15-20 minutes a game and we give him 17+million that's a little different than paying a guy who was your full time starter (effective or not) on a good playoff team.   But I"m solidly in the camp that Tim should start and that his ceiling in this league is way higher than any wing on our roster not named Taurean.  

[macdaddy]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

But it was the cap was at $58 million then. Some were complaining the only reason to bring back Kyle was if we were getting Howard then we ended up with Millsap and DMC - then the squawk really went nuts.

From 2004-2014 the cap moved by $15 million, that's 10 years.  Over the past 3 years it's jumped by $36 million.

The % of what is considered a max deal hasn't changed:

25% 0-6 years

30 % 7-9 years

35%  10+

What's changed

Name a guy who was signed for the MLE this past season?  That's how much things have changed with the new cap figures.  MLE's were once for your 4th and 5th starter and your 6th man.  Now the MLE is going to vets who should be getting vet mins or your 12th rotation guy.

I've adjusted my thinking accordingly, so I just can't get bent all out of shaped over the deals.

The year of DMC's free agency, I started the year saying he is worth double his currently salary which would be $5 mil or the mid-level. Then talk of the new TV deal hit I said he would get anywhere from $7-$9 mil.  Then the crazy talk starting I said not a penny over $12 mil.  He signed for $15 million.

It's the nature of the beast - get used to it.

I'm not disagreeing that this is the new normal (for now) but the fact remains that to sign two borderline starter wings 3 years ago it took about 15% of our cap space and now for two borderline starter wings it's potentially going to take 33% of our cap space.   I think we are going to have to figure some things out with our roster now that it takes big money to have role players.   Makes even more sense to bring your rookies along as quick as possible assuming they have the potential.    I mean if we let Korver and Thabo walk, sign Hardaway, and re-sign Paul I'm guessing we're fairly well done.   But is that a contending team?  Dennis/Tim/Prince/Sap/Dwight with Baze/bembry/delaney/moose off the bench.   

[Diesel]

4 hours ago, macdaddy said:

That's a great point.   Korver and Thabo were experienced vets that we signed for low cost deals.   So the fact that they weren't great wings was no surprise.    Investing $30+ million in Baze/Tim if neither has become a solid, go to scorer would make it difficult for us to put together a contender unless Prince morphs into Kawhi pretty quickly.   

This year is really interesting for the Hawks and next year even more so.   

Well, 

Let's not act like the Hawks didn't have the foresight to see the departure of Korver.   It's coming.  Korver will be 36 by years end and I think he would still be OK coming off the bench but that's a huge leap for a team whoose offense was once dictated by Kyle.   I think THJr is a step in the right direction going forward.   People bring up Bembry and I just don't know.. I was never sold on him and still is not but it's about development.  Prince on the otherhand has potential.   However, he just may slide up to PF. 

The truth is that we're all just waiting on Little Goldie.  He is what will make the most difference. 

 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

But it was the cap was at $58 million then. Some were complaining the only reason to bring back Kyle was if we were getting Howard then we ended up with Millsap and DMC - then the squawk really went nuts.

From 2004-2014 the cap moved by $15 million, that's 10 years.  Over the past 3 years it's jumped by $36 million.

The % of what is considered a max deal hasn't changed:

25% 0-6 years

30 % 7-9 years

35%  10+

What's changed

Name a guy who was signed for the MLE this past season?  That's how much things have changed with the new cap figures.  MLE's were once for your 4th and 5th starter and your 6th man.  Now the MLE is going to vets who should be getting vet mins or your 12th rotation guy.

I've adjusted my thinking accordingly, so I just can't get bent all out of shaped over the deals.

The year of DMC's free agency, I started the year saying he is worth double his currently salary which would be $5 mil or the mid-level. Then talk of the new TV deal hit I said he would get anywhere from $7-$9 mil.  Then the crazy talk starting I said not a penny over $12 mil.  He signed for $15 million.

It's the nature of the beast - get used to it.

You are looking at this short-term and for the short-term I agree  with you logic.  But that bubble will burst.  Once salaries stabilize (or stop ratcheting up at some astronomic levels) just as many people will be signing for lower priced deals again (as a % of the cap).  

Think about your logic.  The total cap dollars went up and it created a short-term bubble of contracts way below the new market norm that give teams tons of free cap space.  Once those "old" contracts drop off and are replaced with higher contracts taking up a larger % of the cap, deals like the Evan Turner signign will no longer have any rationale justification like the people talking themselves into it based on the exploding cap can lean on today.  You look at this through the lens of what % of the cap these guys are occupying.  It doesn't matter if you are talking 17% of the new cap (roughly $17M) or 17% of the old cap ($10M) once things settle down.  Guys are signing contracts that are outrageous today not through the lens of total dollars but as a function of their % of the cap.  The old salaries occupy a smaller % of the current cap so there is excess money to spend.  Again, that bubble will burst and the dollars (as a % of the cap) for middling talent will dry up.

Whatever was worth ~$10M back in the old $58M cap days is the same level of performance that justifies a ~$17M deal today.  (Hint:  borderline starters were not worth $10M/year then and are only "worth" it now because of the bubble).

[AHF]

3 hours ago, JTB said:

We need to start THJ with the starters to find out if he's worth keeping at a 17m per contract. If THJ doesn't start I don't believe he can show what his true value is off the bench.  Just my 2 cents.

I'm down with starting him and letting him show his value for as long as he is outplaying Baze and Kyle in that role and KK/Baze are sucking so much this year that this is a no-brainer right now.

[Thomas]

The rotation formula of late has made us a decent bit better. Finally Bud consented and Kyle is playing his true role or at least the one he can handle backing up Tim. Hope to see Prince backing up Thabo with a good bit more minutes but whatever as long as we win. Nervous that Baze is available already so we will see how it goes starting with tonights game. Three in a row please.