The Tank Thread

[davis171]

12 minutes ago, KB21 said:

You don’t have to suck for years to get a HOF caliber player.  

History says it is more likely at the top of the draft.

[KB21]

23 minutes ago, davis171 said:

History says it is more likely at the top of the draft.

History also shows that bad teams stay bad for extended periods, but you pro tankers love to ignore that.  

[Wretch]

5 hours ago, Buzzard said:

For me it is not tanking that guarantees anything; but it is the lottery that is the best path to a championship. For every one team that you say won without their own lottery pick, you can find ten that did win with their own lottery pick.

I favor the 10 to 1 odds for vs the 10 to 1 against.

This is the truth and the ratio is higher than 10:1. Especially when you expand that to include every team that has gone beyond the 2nd round and used their own lottery pick in some form or another...the numbers are so stupidly tilted towards the lottery that it makes a debate about it pointless. Even if you do a bunch of tap dancing to make an argument fit around who did or didn't draft a guy and whether or not he's a core piece, the fact remains that the guys who win the big games are drafted in the lottery and are there for the taking. The best argument you can come up with is that losing isn't necessary to get these players - which is true. That doesn't change the fact that the vast majority of upper tier teams are not built that way.  And again, I'm not talkin about tanking or whatever. That's a whole other conversation.  I'm just talkin about where the best players come from and your best chances for securing one.

TBH this all comes down to the fact that some people just want to see us make the playoffs every year. Losing in the 1st or 2nd round year after year has no effect on them just as missing the playoffs has no effect on those who want to rebuild. 

(By the way, our commissioner must be a loser too. Because he also makes a distinction between rebuilding and tanking.)

[AHF]

12 hours ago, KB21 said:

Do you not see the flaw in that belief?   That a strategy that only guarantees losing is better than a strategy where you are actually trying to compete on a daily basis.  

There was NO EFFORT MADE to field a competitive team this year, and as a result, at least the next five seasons are completely lost.   Nothing good will come out of this strategy.  

The only person guaranteeing things is you.  You guarantee it will fail for a decade.  You then throw up red herrings claiming people say building through the draft is guaranteed despite people telling you numerous times that no is claiming a guaranteed result.  Classic strawman.

[Buzzard]

26 minutes ago, Wretch said:

This is the truth and the ratio is higher than 10:1. Especially when you expand that to include every team that has gone beyond the 2nd round and used their own lottery pick in some form or another...the numbers are so stupidly tilted towards the lottery that it makes a debate about it pointless. Even if you do a bunch of tap dancing to make an argument fit around who did or didn't draft a guy and whether or not he's a core piece, the fact remains that the guys who win the big games are drafted in the lottery and are there for the taking. The best argument you can come up with is that losing isn't necessary to get these players - which is true. That doesn't change the fact that the vast majority of upper tier teams are not built that way.  And again, I'm not talkin about tanking or whatever. That's a whole other conversation.  I'm just talkin about where the best players come from and your best chances for securing one.

TBH this all comes down to the fact that some people just want to see us make the playoffs every year. Losing in the 1st or 2nd round year after year has no effect on them just as missing the playoffs has no effect on those who want to rebuild. 

(By the way, our commissioner must be a loser too. Because he also makes a distinction between rebuilding and tanking.)

I get the despair some have when you see that only 10 different teams over the past 30 years have won a championship. That is pretty overwhelming. But if you take into consideration the Pistons, Lakers, Spurs, and Celtics  did it with two different teams it becomes a little more manageable to absorb.

In essence they rebuilt twice to be a champion. If they can do that twice,, any other team should be able to at least see some hope of doing it once.

Edited April 1, 2018 by Buzzard

[Peoriabird]

3 hours ago, KB21 said:

When this team is five years into this tanking strategy and still hasn’t made the playoffs, come back at me about how this strategy isn’t about guarantees.   

There will be no incentive to tank after this year so there will be no tanking strategy going forward

[davis171]

35 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

There will be no incentive to tank after this year so there will be no tanking strategy going forward

I think the hawks are still in the deep lottery next year with a probable top 5 pick.

Edited April 1, 2018 by davis171

[Buzzard]

4 minutes ago, davis171 said:

I think the hawks are still in the deep lottery next year with a probable top 5 pick.

Barring a miracle and two of our picks become productive starters in their 1st year, I have to agree with the assumption we are a lottery team next season.

[Diesel]

51 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

There will be no incentive to tank after this year so there will be no tanking strategy going forward

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I don't understand the response!  I am referring to the new lottery rule that will not incentivize team to openly tank because there will be no advantage to purposely lose

[Peoriabird]

15 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

20 minutes ago, davis171 said:

I think the hawks are still in the deep lottery next year with a probable top 5 pick.

Barring a miracle and two of our picks become productive starters in their 1st year, I have to agree with the assumption we are a lottery team next season.

I don't see it quite frankly....The Hawks basically blew thru the west and then had to start faking injuries, buying out vets, giving Prince the green light to jack up any shot and putting in strange line ups that included G-leaguers and Plumlee to start losing again...I don't think that they are that far away from 35 wins

[Diesel]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I don't understand the response!  I am referring to the new lottery rule that will not incentivize team to openly tank because there will be no advantage to purposely lose

Our team quality won't allow us to be  top team so whether you call it tanking or just losing, we won't  be good enough not to be a lottery team. 

Moerver, they may not incentivize it but as long as there are good players, there will be an incentive.

 

[Peoriabird]

Just now, Diesel said:

Our team quality won't allow us to be  top team so whether you call it tanking or just losing, we won't  be good enough not to be a lottery team. 

Moerver, they may not incentivize it but as long as there are good players, there will be an incentive.

 

I don't even know how to unwrap your response but we are talking apples and oranges. 

[Diesel]

6 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I don't even know how to unwrap your response but we are talking apples and oranges. 

Let me help you.  You are of the belief that we are good and that we were just faking bad.  I'm suggesting that we were not faking, we are really bad, we have bad chemistry, and we will get a good draft pick that will not profit us much more this year.  I suspect we will move from the top of the draft lottery to about the 10th pick or so. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

There will be no incentive to tank after this year so there will be no tanking strategy going forward

The incentive will be there but not as strong.  Makes being in the middle of the lottery more attractive but still an incentive to be at the top for both %s and worst case scenarios.

2 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Let me help you.  You are of the belief that we are good and that we were just faking bad.  I'm suggesting that we were not faking, we are really bad, we have bad chemistry, and we will get a good draft pick that will not profit us much more this year.  I suspect we will move from the top of the draft lottery to about the 10th pick or so. 

I think we would have been around the 13th pick this year had we returned last year's roster.  That team had bad chemistry and Paul's continued diminished play and big chunk of lost time would have left us a bad team but not bad enough to get one of the top guys in the draft.

[Peoriabird]

8 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Let me help you.  You are of the belief that we are good and that we were just faking bad.  I'm suggesting that we were not faking, we are really bad, we have bad chemistry, and we will get a good draft pick that will not profit us much more this year.  I suspect we will move from the top of the draft lottery to about the 10th pick or so. 

So do you truly think that if we were trying to win that we would have bought out Ilyasova and Belinelli?

What about declare Baze, Delaney and Dennis out for the season for minor injuries

Do you really think that Plumlee would have a role on a team trying to win...What about Magette, Morris and White?

You think Tyler Dorsey would be getting over 20 minutes per game if something wasn't up?  What about Taylor and Lee

Y'all are basically hopeless if you think for 1 minute that this team is trying to win games!!!!

Oh yeah, I forgot about cavanaugh

[KB21]

6 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Let me help you.  You are of the belief that we are good and that we were just faking bad.  I'm suggesting that we were not faking, we are really bad, we have bad chemistry, and we will get a good draft pick that will not profit us much more this year.  I suspect we will move from the top of the draft lottery to about the 10th pick or so. 

This.  Thanks to Travis Schlenk, the talent level on this team is atrocious.  It’s the worst in the NBA.   This team will be bad for years.  

[Buzzard]

21 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I don't see it quite frankly....The Hawks basically blew thru the west and then had to start faking injuries, buying out vets, giving Prince the green light to jack up any shot and putting in strange line ups that included G-leaguers and Plumlee to start losing again...I don't think that they are that far away from 35 wins

We will see. I predicted 30 this season. I think 30 next season is also a high side. To get 30 it will depend on whether Bud starts the youngsters or the vets. If he starts our vets, he is trying to win. If he starts two rookies most of the time, we are looking at the lottery.

The new rule makes it harder to get the #1 pick; but there is still an incentive to be bad and try to secure a top 5 pick.

Edited April 1, 2018 by Buzzard

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

So do you truly think that if we were trying to win that we would have bought out Ilyasova and Belinelli?

What about declare Baze, Delaney and Dennis out for the season for minor injuries

Do you really think that Plumlee would have a role on a team trying to win...What about Magette, Morris and White?

You think Tyler Dorsey would be getting over 20 minutes per game if something wasn't up?  What about Taylor and Lee

Y'all are basically hopeless if you think for 1 minute that this team is trying to win game!!!!

What administration does and what goes on on the court are two different things.   Our FO is tanking.  Our players on the court are not trying to tank.  Our FO has put our players on the court in a position where we lack the chemistry and skill to be a 35 win team as you have suggested.   Even after we get the draft pick.. that may be a good player or may be a miss, we still will be in "lottery terroritory" because He can only do so much and he has a lot to learn.  Moreovr, you have to consider that we just may move Dennis. 

[Peoriabird]

Just now, Buzzard said:

We will see. I predicted 30 this season. I think 30 next season is also a high side. To get 30 it will depend on whether Bud starts the youngsters or the vets. If he starts our vets, he is trying to win. If he starts two rookies most of the time, we are looking at the lottery.

The new rule makes it harder to get the #1 pick; but there is still an incentive to be bad and secure a top 5 pick.

That prediction was made before the team truly went into tank mode...Before tank mode they would have easily eclipsed 30 wins...Although the decision to start Babbitt at the beginning of the season was somewhat odd