The Tank Thread

[Diesel]

2007	1	3	Al Horford	Dominican Republic	University of Florida
2007	1	11	Acie Law	United States	Texas A&M University
2006	1	5	Shelden Williams	United States	Duke University
2005	1	2	Marvin Williams	United States	University of North Carolina
2004	1	6	Josh Childress	United States	Stanford University
2000	1	6	DerMarr Johnson	United States	University of Cincinnati
1999	1	10	Jason Terry	United States	University of Arizona
1992	1	10	Adam Keefe	United States	Stanford University
1991	1	9	Stacey Augmon	United States	University of Nevada, Las Vegas
1990	1	10	Rumeal Robinson	Jamaica/ United States	University of Michigan
1985	1	5	Jon Koncak	United States	Southern Methodist University

I thought this would be entertaining.  Considering top 14 as Lottery picks... Thought it would be interesting to look at our draft History with lottery picks.  No...yay or nay from me... Just want to hear your opinion of the talent that we gleaned from the lottery.

Comments?

 

[HawkItus]

Eh, different management, even owners for these picks.   Most of them were bad though.

[Diesel]

58 minutes ago, HawkItus said:

Eh, different management, even owners for these picks.   Most of them were bad though.

Management and Owners constantly change... it's a variable that is a constant so need not be considered.   However, the point is what do you see in how the Lottery has worked for us??

[KB21]

Two of the biggest flaws in the fans point of view who support the idea of tanking the season out to get a top pick are:

1.  A top three pick guarantees you will get a superstar player.  No, it doesn't.  Atlanta had the #2 and the #3 pick during the previous tank job they did that didn't work.  Those picks produced Marvin Williams and Al Horford, who was a very good player but is what I would call a "yeah, but" player.  Meaning yeah he's good, but he's not.....etc.  

2.  The thought that because Travis Schlenk comes from the Warriors, and they did well with their mid to lower lottery picks and draft picks overall, that this will also be the case in Atlanta.  You know what.  Rob Hennigan was also a part of the OKC front office that drafted Durant, Westbrook, and Harden in the lottery and Ibaka in the late first round.  How did that drafting success translate to his time as GM in Orlando?

The only guarantee about tanking that is actually real is that when you tank, you are going to be a losing organization for a several years.

[Thomas]

Guess its good there is an official tank thread now but just the same we are where we are. No question of "if". That part is done. How do we move forward with our season and our future picks. If healthy we have three very potentially quality starters and actually two backups counting both Bembry and Marco (Marco at least for most of this year anyway). Lets help our management figure it out, whether they listen or not, or at least our fellow Squawkers figure it out.   

[hazer]

"Past performance is not indicative of future results." ~ Every Investment Vehicle Ever Created

[KB21]

Question for the pro tank crowd.  If the Hawks finish with the worst record in the league, which I think is definitely possible with this roster construction, and they end up getting the 4th overall pick instead of the 1st, is it worth it still to you to tank the season?

[KB21]

1 hour ago, Thomas said:

Guess its good there is an official tank thread now but just the same we are where we are. No question of "if". That part is done. How do we move forward with our season and our future picks. If healthy we have three very potentially quality starters and actually two backups counting both Bembry and Marco (Marco at least for most of this year anyway). Lets help our management figure it out, whether they listen or not, or at least our fellow Squawkers figure it out.   

There really isn't a good way to move forward with this.   The only quick way out of this is to either land a true generational talent in the draft or trade the pick for a veteran that can get you back to the playoffs.

If you rely on building through the draft, it's going to be at best 3 years before the team is competitive again and more than likely 5 years before it is competitive for just a playoff spot.  

[TheNorthCydeRises]

8 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Question for the pro tank crowd.  If the Hawks finish with the worst record in the league, which I think is definitely possible with this roster construction, and they end up getting the 4th overall pick instead of the 1st, is it worth it still to you to tank the season?

If the Hawks get the 4th pick, that may guarantee that the Hawks get your guy . . . 

 

 

[KB21]

Luka should go #1, and no one else should even be considered.

[NBASupes]

4 hours ago, KB21 said:

Question for the pro tank crowd.  If the Hawks finish with the worst record in the league, which I think is definitely possible with this roster construction, and they end up getting the 4th overall pick instead of the 1st, is it worth it still to you to tank the season?

We might consider drafting your boy Doncic at 4, although you will be really happy as we have no choice at 5. 

Edited November 1, 2017 by NBASupes

[Diesel]

10 hours ago, hazer said:

"Past performance is not indicative of future results." ~ Every Investment Vehicle Ever Created

The problem is that this is not an investment that has nothing to do with environment.  Do you ever wonder why ever GM who has come to Atlanta has talked about changing the culture before starting their fire sale?? (except Sund).    It's because when you are in Atlanta, you realize that getting free agents to come is nearly impossible, you don't have enough scouts, and the fanbase is weaker than most franchises.   Those three things have to change before you can change the dynamic of drafting a franchise player... or better a player who will stay with the franchise. 

So Past Perfomance quotes for investments give way to the regular quote about Atlanta Sports... It is what it is...   In other words, it's not easily changeable so you will get what you always get. 

[AHF]

I have no idea what you are talking about, D.  We have the worst drafting history of any team in the league.  That is squarely on the shoulders of our past GMs who sucked beyond sucking at the draft.  The idea that the team environment produces these results is headscratching for me.  You think if Sam Presti had been running things here with a bunch of lotto picks and OKC had hired Pete Babcock during their lotto binge that OKC would have still drafted all the studs they did and we would have screwed up our picks like we did?  No.   That is like saying that we can't have a guy who leads the league in assists because our PGs haven't been among the league leaders in assists in the past.  It depends on the person more than the place.

14 hours ago, KB21 said:

Question for the pro tank crowd.  If the Hawks finish with the worst record in the league, which I think is definitely possible with this roster construction, and they end up getting the 4th overall pick instead of the 1st, is it worth it still to you to tank the season?

Depends who we get right?

#4 Kristaps Porzingis

#4 Russell Westbrook

#4 Mike Conley

#4 Chris Paul

#4 Chris Bosh

etc.

Not all #4 picks will be worthless scum.  Or so says #4 pick:

[KB21]

or....#4 Dragan Bender, #4 Aaron Gordon, #4 Cody Zeller, #4 Dion Waters, #4 Tristan Thompson, #4 Wesley Johnson, #4 Tyreke Evans....etc

 

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, KB21 said:

or....#4 Dragan Bender, #4 Aaron Gordon, #4 Cody Zeller, #4 Dion Waters, #4 Tristan Thompson, #4 Wesley Johnson, #4 Tyreke Evans....etc

 

It depends who you get.  There are no guarantees.  If you were waiting for some team to hand us a guaranteed MVP player in a trade for Moose or Sap or Joe Johnson, you will be kept waiting forever.  To get the MVP talent you have to nail it in the draft, have the lottery assets to trade for one or be in a market like LA.  We aren't in a market like LA and we would never have the lottery assets winning 40-50 games a season.

[KB21]

7 minutes ago, AHF said:

It depends who you get.  There are no guarantees.  If you were waiting for some team to hand us a guaranteed MVP player in a trade for Moose or Sap or Joe Johnson, you will be kept waiting forever.  To get the MVP talent you have to nail it in the draft, have the lottery assets to trade for one or be in a market like LA.  We aren't in a market like LA and we would never have the lottery assets winning 40-50 games a season.

So the answer to everything is to tank and commit yourself to years of losing in hopes that you may one day find that MVP caliber player.

[AHF]

Just now, KB21 said:

So the answer to everything is to tank and commit yourself to years of losing in hopes that you may one day find that MVP caliber player.

If you want to win a ring, you need to find that MVP player and to do that we need to play in the lottery.  I don't care if we are winning and trading assets to get into the lottery, losing games to get in the lottery, seeing our best player injured resulting in a lost season, etc.  Don't care.  Get in the lottery and nail your Curry, Jordan, Hakeem, Kobe, Duncan, etc. or don't pretend to care about winning a ring.

(Or show me the teams that were constructed like our 2016-17 Hawks and that went on to transform their 1st/2nd round exit selves into champions without playing in the lottery.)

[noble]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

If you want to win a ring, you need to find that MVP player and to do that we need to play in the lottery.  I don't care if we are winning and trading assets to get into the lottery, losing games to get in the lottery, seeing our best player injured resulting in a lost season, etc.  Don't care.  Get in the lottery and nail your Curry, Jordan, Hakeem, Kobe, Duncan, etc. or don't pretend to care about winning a ring.

(Or show me the teams that were constructed like our 2016-17 Hawks and that went on to transform their 1st/2nd round exit selves into champions without playing in the lottery.)

This is the part I think KB misses. I get that we as fans want to see a competitive team or at least an exciting product. But we were never really considered a team that could win a championship. It sucks hard when you know your team will be bad and I get that KB is super frustrated with just how bad this team is looking. But on the other side you are dead on. If you don't have that MVP type player you are just another team, even if you make the playoffs.

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

I have no idea what you are talking about, D.  We have the worst drafting history of any team in the league.  That is squarely on the shoulders of our past GMs who sucked beyond sucking at the draft.  The idea that the team environment produces these results is headscratching for me.  You think if Sam Presti had been running things here with a bunch of lotto picks and OKC had hired Pete Babcock during their lotto binge that OKC would have still drafted all the studs they did and we would have screwed up our picks like we did?  No.   That is like saying that we can't have a guy who leads the league in assists because our PGs haven't been among the league leaders in assists in the past.  It depends on the person more than the place.

 

I don't deny that we have the worst drafting history.  What makes you think that will change because we want it to? We've wanted it to change everytime we brought in a new guy.  Even Ferry who some believe was a god amoung GMs.. he didn't get it right.  As a fan, my thinking is that since we don't have Presti... let's not weigh so heavily on the idea that now we have a GM who will make a smart decision. The draft is a crapshoot anyway.   For every Carmelo, you have a Darko.  For every Jordan, you have a Bowie.  For every Greek Freak, you have an Anthony Bennett.   Hindsight is perfect but we have to understand that these GMs are not idiots because they made a decision with limited information.  We should have come to the understanding that we have to build an environment that can still thrive even after mistakes and that's not having a tank attitude.

However, let's say we do get a franchise player... Undeniable franchise player.  How many franchise players have our weak fanbase alienated right out of town??  The best of those draft picks... Al Horford.  We offered him money to stay.  He left.   That was during the time that we were still good.  The point is that First you have to change the environment to one that welcomes a star player... and then get the star player.. and he will go out and get other star players.   Right now, if we got a star, he's on an island. 

 

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, noble said:

This is the part I think KB misses. I get that we as fans want to see a competitive team or at least an exciting product. But we were never really considered a team that could win a championship. It sucks hard when you know your team will be bad and I get that KB is super frustrated with just how bad this team is looking. But on the other side you are dead on. If you don't have that MVP type player you are just another team, even if you make the playoffs.

Nope.  KB sat through the same thing with Billy Knight. 

His picks in the lottery were:   Law, Shellhead, Horford, Marvin, and Childress.   We had 5 shots in 4 years.  Only Horford ever amounted to anything and he was never in the conversation for MVP.   Did we learn anything?  Obviously not because we're on our way to do it again.  This time will be better though... right??  But what if it's not?  What if we gave up all those gains for nothing?  One loss we have already taken is our reputation among free agents.   The second loss will be Bud... a coach of the year winner, we've converted to a lame duck coach.  The third will be our sometimey fanbase.    So this is what you want to bring a "Star" into?  I'm waiting for the reaction when we fire Bud and bring in another treadmill coach.  My guess is Mike Brown.  In fact, I'm going to laugh hysterically when he's hired.   It's going to signal.... non-reform.