Harshing your draft buzz

[thecampster]

So private talks with others have led to this post.  So many posters on this board are relying on stat lines to prove their chosen player is going to be a beast at the NBA level. Forget that 3 of 10 top 10 picks solidly fit the bust profile. So I thought I'd give you all a stat line or 2 and ask you where you'd draft these players. I'll reveal the player names over the weekend.

These are final year of college stats for random players

 

Player 1

18.7 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.3 apg. 2.4 bpg

Player 2

15.5 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 2.5 apg

Player 3

19.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.1 apg

Player 4

15.1 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 2.1 apg

Player 5

15.3 ppg,  4.5 rpg, 6.6 apg

Player 6

28.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.7 apg

Player 7

22.2 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 2.9 bpg

 

So go ahead draft experts, tell me where you would draft each player. No cheating!

Player 1 - 

Player 2 -

Player 3 -

Player 4 - 

Player 5 - 

Player 6 - 

Player 7 -

[thecampster]

Here, I'll add an eighth.

Player 8 - 18.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 3.8 bpg.

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

Here, I'll add an eighth.

Player 8 - 18.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 3.8 bpg.

3.8 blocks? Damn! 18.8 a game. Who's that, prime Alonzo?

[AHF]

It would help a lot for context to put in measurements, conference and age.  Pure counting numbers from box scores don't give you much to go on.

Seeing 20.9 points, 5.2 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 1.3 steals without the context that this is 5'11'' senior Frank Mason or seeing 22.3 ppg, 5.8 apg, 5.6 rpg without knowing that this is a senior (Nate Wolters) putting these numbers up against the competition seen by South Dakota St gives you very little to chew on.

[thecampster]

22 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

3.8 blocks? Damn! 18.8 a game. Who's that, prime Alonzo?

Some of these players turned out to be stars, some are bagging groceries, the question is who.

[thecampster]

11 minutes ago, AHF said:

It would help a lot for context to put in measurements, conference and age.  Pure counting numbers from box scores don't give you much to go on.

Seeing 20.9 points, 5.2 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 1.3 steals without the context that this is 5'11'' senior Frank Mason or seeing 22.3 ppg, 5.8 apg, 5.6 rpg without knowing that this is a senior (Nate Wolters) putting these numbers up against the competition seen by South Dakota St gives you very little to chew on.

That's the point of this thread. Most people (myself included to some extent) are going off eyeballing and stats.  Just seeing how people would draft people if there are no names (ie...peer pressure, "expert" articles to go by).

Go ahead, just guess what their draft position should be/should have been.

[AHF]

Just now, thecampster said:

That's the point of this thread. Most people (myself included to some extent) are going off eyeballing and stats.  Just seeing how people would draft people if there are no names (ie...peer pressure, "expert" articles to go by).

Raw numbers without additional context will give you about as much to go on as alphabetizing them by third letter of their middle name.  I can already tell you that without more context, I cannot tell them apart at all.  So point made with me here.

[thecampster]

Should I spoil it with their actual names?

 

[JayBirdHawk]

To AHFs point context matters, teammates, coaches, age, position they play etc. 

[thecampster]

For example - compare player 1, 7 and 8 with Jaren Jackson Jr.'s stats

10.9 ppg, 5.3rpg, 3.0 bpg

 

Or Ayton's

 

20.1 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 2.0 bpg

 

or Mo Bamba

12.9 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 3.7 bpg

 

 

[AHF]

I think college numbers should be part of the conversation with prospects but @thecampster is right when he says you need a more fulsome discussion of a lot more than just those numbers.  The numbers don't tell you much by themselves but I would say that certain numbers can be a red flag or a positive part of a player's profile with context.  Fortunately, I think most of our posters have been drawing on more than raw numbers for most of these discussions.

[KB21]

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

For example - compare player 1, 7 and 8 with Jaren Jackson Jr.'s stats

10.9 ppg, 5.3rpg, 3.0 bpg

 

Or Ayton's

 

20.1 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 2.0 bpg

 

or Mo Bamba

12.9 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 3.7 bpg

 

 

Or Joel Embiid's 11.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 2.6 BPG.

Raw stats like this don't tell the story.  I'm more interested in efficiency and impact on winning.

[TheFuzz]

No point in drafting a player without some tape. And if we can't see the tape, I'll need more than box score stats. 

[thecampster]

Now we're getting it.

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

Or Joel Embiid's 11.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 2.6 BPG.

Raw stats like this don't tell the story.  I'm more interested in efficiency and impact on winning.

 

But go ahead...give it a shot....play along.

[AHF]

Agreed.  For example, PPG without shooting %s and an understanding of team role and other elements of context is useless even if you are purely looking at the numbers.  Same for %s by themselves.  You need to know if someone is getting double teamed, is the team's 4th option, is spreading the floor, can sustain efficient scoring beyond a secondary or tertiary option role, etc.

[thecampster]

So for example, if I were ranking these players purely on stats and discussion on this board.

 

1.  draft ranking around 6

2. draft ranking around 10

3. draft ranking around 15

4. draft ranking around 15

5. Draft ranking around 20

6. Draft ranking #1

7. Draft ranking #2

8. Draft ranking 1-4

[thecampster]

Now...who are the players listed?

 

Player 1 – Mike Muscala

Player 2 – Kawhi Leonard

Player 3 – Michael Jordan

Player 4 – Charles Barkley

Player 5 – Chris Paul

Player 6 – Adam Morrison

Player 7 – Michael OlowoKandi

Player 8 – Sheldon Williams

[DBac]

I agree that you can't go just off numbers but having their class would've helped as far as ranking them goes. A 22 ppg freshman more appealing than a 22ppg senior.

[sillent]

19 hours ago, thecampster said:

So private talks with others have led to this post.  So many posters on this board are relying on stat lines to prove their chosen player is going to be a beast at the NBA level. Forget that 3 of 10 top 10 picks solidly fit the bust profile. So I thought I'd give you all a stat line or 2 and ask you where you'd draft these players. I'll reveal the player names over the weekend.

These are final year of college stats for random players

 

Player 1

18.7 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.3 apg. 2.4 bpg

Player 2

15.5 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 2.5 apg

Player 3

19.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.1 apg

Player 4

15.1 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 2.1 apg

Player 5

15.3 ppg,  4.5 rpg, 6.6 apg

Player 6

28.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.7 apg

Player 7

22.2 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 2.9 bpg

 

So go ahead draft experts, tell me where you would draft each player. No cheating!

Player 1 -  #2

Player 2 -  #3

Player 3 -  #7

Player 4 -  #4

Player 5 -  #5

Player 6 - #6

Player 7 - #1