Bold Predictions 2022-2023

[Final_quest]

Now that we got the win total projection thread, it's time to get into the bold predictions of 2022-2023.  Who will be all stars, all NBA?  Who surprises us on the roster?  What will happen that will shock people?  Give us 2-3 bold predictions for the Hawks.

Here are mine:

1. Capela gets back into form and becomes a top 3 rebounder in the league.

2. Hawks will end the season in the top 5 power rankings.

 

3. AJ Griffin will have a higher VORP than Okongwu.  

[Guest]

1.  Bogi will have a resurgent year and be in the talk for 6th man of the year.

2. Jalen Johnson will average more rebounds per game than Collins and Hunter.

3. Capela will make the 1st team All-NBA defensive team.

[JayBirdHawk]

BOLD - Clint shoots 61% from the freethrow line. A combination of him trying to meet his incentive (65%) but more importantly having Korver' help.

 

 

[Wretch]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

BOLD - Clint shoots 61% from the freethrow line. A combination of him trying to meet his incentive (65%) but more importantly having Korver' help.

 

 

Y'know...I noticed a few extra FT's going down for Cap during this preseason.  And I just checked....  Small sample, but he's 70% through 3 games...

[Wretch]

Bold predictions...hmm

I don't have enough data. lol I have a couple of thoughts brewing, but I need to see something first. 

One thing I can say right now...  I'm  not making a prediction, because I want to believe in this team, and it is most certainly not a bold statement, but...all eyes on Nate.

 

[Peoriabird]

I hate the Hawks coverage in this town...They all sound like Brad Rowland

 

• 2022-23 NBA Season Preview

What are the best and worst case scenarios for the Atlanta Hawks this season?

By Zach Hood@zhood_ Oct 14, 2022, 9:30am EDT

48 Comments / 48 New

Share this stShare this on Facebook (opens in nAll shPhoto by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images

 

The NBA season will be back early next week. The Atlanta Hawks have a lot of excitement swirling around them as they enter another new season. Heading into the new campaign, we try to predict the best, worst and most likely outcomes for the franchise in the 2022-23 season, as well as the Hawks’ win-loss record and conference seeding.

Best Case scenario

The best case scenario for the Hawks is a top-4 seed. The addition of Dejounte Murray could be a big enough splash to elevate Atlanta into the upper echelon of the conference. He and Trae Young would need to obviously build a really strong chemistry out of the gates in this outcome.

Worst Case scenario

The worst case naturally would involve some time of detrimental injury or injuries to key players. There are a few players on the roster that would be difficult to stomach losing for any amount of time. In this scenario, the Hawks may struggle to make the postseason as a top-6 seed, or worse, depending on who and how many players go down.

Non-injury wise, the Hawks could theoretically struggle to gel with all of the new additions. It would be surprising to see such a talented top-7 or 8 players struggle if healthy, but crazier things have happened in the NBA.

Most Likely outcome

The most likely outcome is probably a seed between Nos. 5 and 7 in the Eastern Conference. The East has some tough competition at the top, so cracking the top four will be a tough task even with the addition of Murray.

Most exciting thing(s) heading into the new season

The most exciting thing is easily the addition of Murray. He was an All-Star last season and changes the team on both ends of the court. He brings a level of defense and athletic ability the Hawks’ backcourt has not had in recent years.

Projecting the win/loss record for the season

Atlanta should improve on last season’s mark of 43 wins. These things are always tough to nail down, but let’s say the Hawks go 49-34 for 2022-23.

Predicting the Hawks’ conference seedingThe East is maybe as deep as ever this season, or at least it appears that way entering the season. 49 wins could still be good enough for the No. 5 seed in the conference.

 

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2022/10/14/23402997/atlanta-hawks-best-worst-case-scenarios-2022-23-nba-season-preview-predictions-eastern-conference

[NBASupes]

I said 62 wins and I am already regretting it.

[Final_quest]

18 hours ago, Wretch said:

One thing I can say right now...  I'm  not making a prediction, because I want to believe in this team, and it is most certainly not a bold statement, but...all eyes on Nate.

 

Reading between the lines.  Sounds like you are saying Nate is out by the end of the season.  After trading for DJM, Nate has to get it done or else he's gone.  

[Wretch]

On 10/15/2022 at 11:48 AM, Final_quest said:

Reading between the lines.  Sounds like you are saying Nate is out by the end of the season.  After trading for DJM, Nate has to get it done or else he's gone.  

I mean...lol

Our offense was cooking last year and we've upgraded.  We have too much talent.  Minimum expectations for this team should be top 4 seed and/or 2nd round.  If we aren't committed to defense, we continue to struggle in the clutch, and we don't at least put up a strong fight in the 2nd round...it just might be a bad fit.  

Let it be known though that I'm absolutely not a Nate-hater.  I'm just putting it out there.  I like Nate and have actually liked him for a long time.  The only issue I have (and it's minor) is with his questionable rotations - especially where young players are concerned.  Guys who clearly need the experience, could help, and at the same time, have a lot of expectations about them.

[swanlee]

Hope for 50 wins and a good solid seed. IF we suffer crazy injuries like we seem to every year then should be another wild ride but hopefully we get hot around the playoffs.

[Diesel]

On 10/15/2022 at 11:48 AM, Final_quest said:

Reading between the lines.  Sounds like you are saying Nate is out by the end of the season.  After trading for DJM, Nate has to get it done or else he's gone.  

Well,  Nate is 70 - 50 (53.8%)  since taking over the team with two playoffs stretches and one that ended in ECFs....  We can talk about firing Nate but if he keeps producing, it makes no sense. 

Just a recent history...

 

Nate McMillan	2021-2022	Atlanta Hawks	70-50	11-12
Lloyd Pierce	2019-2021	Atlanta Hawks	63-120
Mike Budenholzer	2014-2018	Atlanta Hawks	213-197	17-22
Larry Drew	2011-2013	Atlanta Hawks	128-102	10-14
Mike Woodson	2005-2010	Atlanta Hawks	206-286	11-18
Terry Stotts	2003-2004	Atlanta Hawks	52-85
Lon Kruger	2001-2003	Atlanta Hawks	69-122
Lenny Wilkens	1994-2000	Atlanta Hawks	310-232	17-30

 

Nate = 53.8%

LP = 34.4%

Coach Bud = 51.9%

Coach Drew = 55.6%

Woodynogoody  = 41.8%

Stotts = 37.9

Kruger = 36.1%

Wilkens = 57.1%    

 

So... really... Firing Nate would be similar to firing Larry Drew.   Drew had a good win percentage with a good team but we just felt that he wasn't good enough. 

 

[Gray Mule]

BOLD PREDICTION

Hawks will win more than they lose.

Some great eastern power will fail bad against Atlanta.

A close game will depend on the calls of the officials to determine who wins.

Nate will suprise us and allow JJ & AJ to play meaningful minutes before the season ends!

[Peoriabird]

Bold predictions

Dejuante Murray EFG% will be higher than Trae Young's and will have a better TS than Kevin Huerter

Dejuante Murray will have a better assist to turnover ratio than Trae young.

Clint Capella will again be top 5 in blocks and rebounds per game

Our bench unit will be top 10 in the league in point differential

De'Andre Hunter will average 5 or more rebounds per game and will be 3rd or higher on the team in EFG%

The Hawks will have a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense

 

[Final_quest]

5 hours ago, Diesel said:

Well,  Nate is 70 - 50 (53.8%)  since taking over the team with two playoffs stretches and one that ended in ECFs....  We can talk about firing Nate but if he keeps producing, it makes no sense. 

Just a recent history...

 

Nate McMillan	2021-2022	Atlanta Hawks	70-50	11-12
Lloyd Pierce	2019-2021	Atlanta Hawks	63-120
Mike Budenholzer	2014-2018	Atlanta Hawks	213-197	17-22
Larry Drew	2011-2013	Atlanta Hawks	128-102	10-14
Mike Woodson	2005-2010	Atlanta Hawks	206-286	11-18
Terry Stotts	2003-2004	Atlanta Hawks	52-85
Lon Kruger	2001-2003	Atlanta Hawks	69-122
Lenny Wilkens	1994-2000	Atlanta Hawks	310-232

 

He has to win more than 54% the next two years to keep his job.  History isn’t what he’s being measured against.  

[Diesel]

1 minute ago, Final_quest said:

He has to win more than 54% the next two years to keep his job.  History isn’t what he’s being measured against.  

I can see that.  A little.  You're saying that the winning has to be there because he has Trae. 

I think he can pull it up to a 58-60% wins...  However, the playoff wins will determine. 

 

[Wretch]

1 minute ago, Diesel said:

I can see that.  A little.  You're saying that the winning has to be there because he has Trae. 

I think he can pull it up to a 58-60% wins...  However, the playoff wins will determine. 

 

So....I don't want to get into a binary conversation where it's Nate's fault (FIRE HIM!) or it's not (NATE'S DOING FINE!).  Sometimes, changing coaches isn't about performance.  Sometimes it's just about the right fit and expectations.  If we keep winning at his current clip ~53%, that's a play-in spot.  That's no better than we were last season.  He won't be able to keep his job if we're doing that for the next 2 seasons.  Sh!t, there's a good chance that we won't be able to keep Dejounte if we're doing that and getting bounced.

Say we do improve to a 60% winning season, that's still only 49 wins...and barely gets us into the upper 4 of the East (if we're going by last season).  Even if we do crack the top 4 with 50-ish wins, like you said, we still have to show strong in the playoffs.  This is literally my point.  A top four seed and a strong 2nd round showing is the minimum.  TBH, I can't say for certain that this team (incl. the front office) is going to be happy with that either.

[Diesel]

20 minutes ago, Wretch said:

So....I don't want to get into a binary conversation where it's Nate's fault (FIRE HIM!) or it's not (NATE'S DOING FINE!).  Sometimes, changing coaches isn't about performance.  Sometimes it's just about the right fit and expectations.  If we keep winning at his current clip ~53%, that's a play-in spot.  That's no better than we were last season.  He won't be able to keep his job if we're doing that for the next 2 seasons.  Sh!t, there's a good chance that we won't be able to keep Dejounte if we're doing that and getting bounced.

Say we do improve to a 60% winning season, that's still only 49 wins...and barely gets us into the upper 4 of the East (if we're going by last season).  Even if we do crack the top 4 with 50-ish wins, like you said, we still have to show strong in the playoffs.  This is literally my point.  A top four seed and a strong 2nd round showing is the minimum.  TBH, I can't say for certain that this team (incl. the front office) is going to be happy with that either.

To your point, this can't be done in a vacuum either.   We do have to consider the competition. Brooklyn had an off year last year.  All signs is that they are back.  Everybody expects Milwaukee and Philly to be top 4... and Boston won the conference last year.   So of those 4 who may not even be the top 4, who do we replace?

 

[Wretch]

10 hours ago, Diesel said:

To your point, this can't be done in a vacuum either.   We do have to consider the competition. Brooklyn had an off year last year.  All signs is that they are back.  Everybody expects Milwaukee and Philly to be top 4... and Boston won the conference last year.   So of those 4 who may not even be the top 4, who do we replace?

 

I mean... If I'm being honest?  We need to be solidified in that conversation.  Why talk about other teams like ours doesn't belong or it's a stretch to even consider us?  I'm not directing that at you because I know where you are as a fan. I'm reaching back for an old adage I used to throw around to describe the general acceptance of just being happy with playoff basketball...good old welfare mentality.

Like...no man. Lol  No more "positive takeaways" or playing hard in a loss. We need be one of those teams that everyone draws a line under like the 3-4 teams at the top every year. They should be worried about US and if we're not there then how do we get there?

I'm saying we should be better than ANY AND ALL of those teams for this team to stay intact.  I think player movement will happen first if we meet the minimum as mentioned above.  Anything less than that...I think Nate's gone. 

 

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, Wretch said:

I'm saying we should be better than ANY AND ALL of those teams for this team to stay intact.  I think player movement will happen first if we meet the minimum as mentioned above.  Anything less than that...I think Nate's gone. 

You see,  I agree here.   We just showed our dominance over Milwaukee in Preseason play.  I know it's preseason but they were out there playing hard in the first and we dominated.  I just don't think that Boston or Philly is better than us.   I don't know what to say about BKLN though.   That's not describing them as better than us, that's saying I don't really know what they bring.  Kyrie and Simmons are so unpredictable.   Other teams are Cleveland and Chicago.   Cleveland has a complete team and they could win some matchup with us but I dont think they are better.  Of course all of this will come down to coaching.   Nobody expected Nate to make the biggest turn around in BBALL history... yeah, I said it.   All that was missing was us winning it all... and we probably could have if not for the foot of stone. 

Now, we're better. Better than that team that made Simmons quit, that made Embiid Cry, that made ever Network executive pissed off and that beat every NY fan out of their drawls.  We're better and they don't want to admit it, but we're probably the best in the East. 

 

[Gray Mule]

Hot or not?  

Winning usually depends on whether the overall team and especially their stars have a hot hand or not.  Great, recent example of this?  The Atlanta Braves in the playoffs.  They picked aa terrible time to go cold.

Health of the roster is a big thing.  Healthy, the Hawks are very good.  Take a couple of starters out with sickness or injury and we might be doomed.

Going into the playoffs, and I sincerely believe that the Hawks will be there, these two things will determine how we fare.  Both things must be there.  Talent is there.  When their shots are falling and the entire roster is healthy this team can and will beat any other NBA team.

Nate can go along for the ride.  Or, if everything isn't great, then he must be able to coach up a storm and make all the right moves.

Building a winner!