Bold Predictions 2022-2023

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I've been saying this all off-season.

Trae will average 2 steals per game.

[NBASupes]

Atlanta will be the best mid range and 3pt shooting team percentage wise in the NBA.

[AHF]

14 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Bold predictions

Dejuante Murray EFG% will be higher than Trae Young's and will have a better TS than Kevin Huerter

Dejuante Murray will have a better assist to turnover ratio than Trae young.

Clint Capella will again be top 5 in blocks and rebounds per game

Our bench unit will be top 10 in the league in point differential

De'Andre Hunter will average 5 or more rebounds per game and will be 3rd or higher on the team in EFG%

The Hawks will have a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense

 

Nice list, Peo.

This one is the biggest stretch:

Quote

De'Andre Hunter will be 3rd or higher on the team in EFG%

Last year he was 16th on the team so being 3rd or higher would be mind blowing.

[Diesel]

My Bold Predictions. 

1.  Clint Capela will challenge for DPOY.

2.  Clint Capela will challenge for Rebound King. 

3.  Clint Capela will shoot 67% from the field. 

4.  Trae Young will lead the league in Assists. 

5.  Hawks will finish #1 or #2 in the EC.

6.  Hawks will win the ECFs and go to the Finals. 

7.   DJM will reup with the Hawks. 

8.   One of the Holidaze will be in the running for 6th man of the year.   JJ also. 

9.  JJ will be in the running for MIP .  JC too. 

10.  The Hawks will send 4 players to the Allstar game.  (Trae, DJM, JC, and CC)

11.  Those same 4 players will be player of the week for 1 week in the season.

12.  Nate will get some looks for COY. 

13.  The Falcons will make the playoffs after winning a wildcard game vs. Green Bay.  The Hawks will be at the game for Support.

14.  For the first time in forever, the city will support the Hawks during the season!

more to come. 

[AHF]

For me, I predict:

The Hawks will improve by 11 or more spots in DRTG from last year.

Hunter will improve from a 10.6 PER to a 16.5 PER and from 1.1 Win Shares to close to 4 Win Shares.

Bogi will struggle over the first half of the season, missing significant time and having trouble getting back up to speed, before locking in after the All-Star break.

OO will see incremental improvement rather than a huge breakout.  His game will get more diverse but he will hold his previous 20 PER / .200 WS/48 numbers and his big improvements will come from being more healthy seeing a jump to 7 Win Shares and 1.5 VORP.

JC is going to continue the moderate production of his last few years averaging around 17 and 8 rather than his 20/10 numbers from a few years ago.  This isn't because of his performance but is the fact that CC limits his rebounding opportunities and the ball needs to be shared with more people now that the roster has better depth and talent.

AJ will receive a disappointingly small amount of time this year unless we see a major injury open up time.  Minutes will go to DM, Bogi, AH, and JH instead.  I'm expecting something on the order of 400 total minutes.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Not so much all inclusive BOLD predictions but some expectations as well:

Expectations:
[  ] Trae needs to leave the refs alone, play defense, limits TOs
[  ] Cap - above 55% (61%) from freethrow line and 14rpg, 2 bpg
[  ] JC - 14 shots per game, +82%FT, 2bpg
[  ] DJ - 36% from 3, +80% FT
[  ] Hunter - 6rpg, 2apg, 1steal, 1 block, +80% FT, in best wing defender convo league wide
[  ] AJ and JJ in rookie/soph game, JJ in convo for 6th man of the year.
[  ] OO MIP and 6MOY  conversation
[  ] Bogi - healthy the 2nd half of season.

[Peoriabird]

3 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I've been saying this all off-season.

Trae will average 2 steals per game.

Getting the ball stolen from him I can believe but him stealing the ball?  We win the NBA finals if that happens!

[Peoriabird]

5 hours ago, Diesel said:

5.  Hawks will finish #1 or #2 in the EC.

6.  Hawks will win the ECFs and go to the Finals. 

 

I like all of your prediction but if these 2 come true, I will win a lot of money this year!  And if they play the Mavericks in the finals it will be over $300,000.00!

[Diesel]

35 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I like all of you prediction but if these 2 come true, I will win a lot of money this year!  And if they play the Mavericks in the finals it will be over $300,000.00!

If that happens, lemmehold something.

 

[AHF]

41 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I like all of you prediction but if these 2 come true, I will win a lot of money this year!  And if they play the Mavericks in the finals it will be over $300,000.00!

Mavs / Hawks NBA Finals = Pizza Party at Peo's place!

[Final_quest]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

Hunter will improve from a 10.6 PER to a 16.5 PER and from 1.1 Win Shares to close to 4 Win Shares.

 

That would be huge.  He has the most opportunity to be the guy that makes a leap.  AJ is the dark horse break out candidate.  Can't wait to watch these games.  

[marco102]

Can't get much bolder than that and I'm surprised I'm the only one to say it. 

[AHF]

13 hours ago, marco102 said:

Can't get much bolder than that and I'm surprised I'm the only one to say it. 

We can't all be Clint Capela.

[Spud2nique]

9 minutes ago, AHF said:

We can't all be Clint Capela.

AHF feelin it today… I feel the comedic flow! 

[Diesel]

 

 

 

[Final_quest]

On 10/17/2022 at 8:36 PM, marco102 said:

Can't get much bolder than that and I'm surprised I'm the only one to say it. 

You're right.  No one else has said it.  We had bigger expectations last season, but this team is way better.  

[sturt]

In January, the starting five plus BogBog will be named players of the month.

There will be a ceremony in the first State Farm game in February (2/9 vs. Suns) in which Teague and Korver present each of the boys with golden sashes and a dozen roses.

 

And, more seriously...

 

Albeit due to some other player sitting out, John Collins nonetheless will be named to his first All-Star Game.

[AHF]

Well, since we are at the halfway point of the season here is an update on hits and misses (so far - I know these can change):

On 10/17/2022 at 10:33 AM, AHF said:

For me, I predict:

The Hawks will improve by 11 or more spots in DRTG from last year.

 

HIT: Hawks finished last season #27 in DRTG and sit at #14 right now.

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Hunter will improve from a 10.6 PER to a 16.5 PER and from 1.1 Win Shares to close to 4 Win Shares.

MISS:  Hunter has improved to an 11.6 PER well short of 16.5.  He is on pace to finish with 2.4 Win Shares well short of 4 (but materially better than last year).

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Bogi will struggle over the first half of the season, missing significant time and having trouble getting back up to speed, before locking in after the All-Star break.

MIXED:  Bogi has been better on offense and as bad on defense as I feared he would be while coming back up to speed.

Quote

OO will see incremental improvement rather than a huge breakout.  His game will get more diverse but he will hold his previous 20 PER / .200 WS/48 numbers and his big improvements will come from being more healthy seeing a jump to 7 Win Shares and 1.5 VORP.

HIT:  OO has fallen a  bit short of PER/WS/48 numbers (at 17.2 and .160 respectively) but fundamentally he is on pace to finish with 8.4 Win Shares and a 1.4 VORP with the incremental changes in his game I was expecting.  Career highs in per game production but very similar per minute production is consistent with my overall projection and his better health is turning into overall WS and VORP numbers that are on point.

Quote

JC is going to continue the moderate production of his last few years averaging around 17 and 8 rather than his 20/10 numbers from a few years ago.  This isn't because of his performance but is the fact that CC limits his rebounding opportunities and the ball needs to be shared with more people now that the roster has better depth and talent.

 

MISS:  JC has fallen from 17 and 8 to 13 and 8 this year.  Right that he would not rebound to prior heights but he hasn't maintained the recent scoring due to a combination of poor perimeter shooting and a decrease in FGAs.

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AJ will receive a disappointingly small amount of time this year unless we see a major injury open up time.  Minutes will go to DM, Bogi, AH, and JH instead.  I'm expecting something on the order of 400 total minutes.

MISS:  Very happy to report a miss on this.  AJ was getting the exact kind of treatment I feared early in the season.  Over the first 9 games, he played an average of less than 5 minutes per game and was on pace to play ~370 minutes on a full season run.  Then with Trae and Bogi out against the Bucks he went off for 24 points off the bench.  Since then he has crushed the minutes I feared he would get and is already over 700 minutes for the year.  Hurray!

 

Bonus:

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Jalen averages less than 20 mpg in the 2022-23 season

HIT:  From the bets thread, I am on the line with the side of JJ averaging fewer than 20 mpg.  This could change before the end of the year if JC got traded, etc. but as of today JJ is averaging 15.1 mpg.  He will need to average almost 25 mpg the rest of the way to get there so I'd put that in the "unlikely" column right now.  Would love to see him blow up and for me to lose this one by year end.

[JayBirdHawk]

On 10/17/2022 at 10:37 AM, JayBirdHawk said:

Not so much all inclusive BOLD predictions but some expectations as well:

Expectations:
[  ] Trae needs to leave the refs alone, play defense, limits TOs
[  ] Cap - above 55% (61%) from freethrow line and 14rpg, 2 bpg
[  ] JC - 14 shots per game, +82%FT, 2bpg
[  ] DJ - 36% from 3, +80% FT
[  ] Hunter - 6rpg, 2apg, 1steal, 1 block, +80% FT, in best wing defender convo league wide
[  ] AJ and JJ in rookie/soph game, JJ in convo for 6th man of the year.
[  ] OO MIP and 6MOY  conversation
[  ] Bogi - healthy the 2nd half of season.

Yikes:

[  ] Trae needs to leave the refs alone, play defense, limits TOs  I think his techs are down, his TOV goes from 4.0 to 3.9
[  ] Cap - above 55% (61%) from freethrow line and 14rpg, 2 bpg 60%FT, 11.9 rpg, 1.3 bpg
[  ] JC - 14 shots per game, +82%FT, 2bpg 10.4 shots per game, 80.8 FT, 1.4 bpg
[  ] DJ - 36% from 3, +80% FT   34% from 3, 84% FT
[  ] Hunter - 6rpg, 2apg, 1steal, 1 block, +80% FT, in best wing defender convo league wide 4.5rpg, 1.2apg, .5spg, .2 bpg, 81.7% FT
[  ] AJ and JJ in rookie/soph game, JJ in convo for 6th man of the year. - AJ should be in the game, JJ should have been if Nate develops and plays him.
[  ] OO MIP and 6MOY conversation - not even close
[  ] Bogi - healthy the 2nd half of season. Hit

[Spud2nique]

I didn’t say ish 

I just made a note that AHF was on one one day