Way too early trade deadline watch

[bird_dirt]

The next opportunity for the Hawks to make a move to push this team ahead would be an in season trade. Today I started thinking about what some realistic options might be and came up with a short list (that you’re probably going to hate). 

My methodology. 

1. My first thought is where do we need help the most? I’m thinking solid depth at PF or C. 

2. What teams would be the most willing to let go of a PF or C that could help us this year in the playoffs? This is where it gets interesting. I’d eliminate any probable playoff teams (BOS, DEN, MEM, DAL, TOR, MIL, PHO, PHI, GSW, MIA, LAC, MIN, NOP, BKN, CLE). I’d also eliminate the guaranteed bottom dwellers, as they won’t be as desperate for help to tank to get to the bottom 5 for a shot at a VW or a Scooter. So that takes out HOU, ORL, DET, OKC, and SAS. 

The rest of the field is stuck in the middle, and will have to decide if they’ll fight for a play in position, or try going all in on tanking as bad as they can if things aren’t  going well come January. That list is UTA, CHA, NYK, POR, IND, SAC, WAS, LAL, and CHI.

This is where I narrow my focus. For some teams could potentially get desperate if they see any light at the end of the lottery tunnel. 

I think the teams that could most likely find themselves having a worse than expected year and in a desperate position to crash fast are WAS, SAC, IND, and POR. LAL would fall here, too, but they owe a pick swap to NOP, so they have zero incentive to tank. Remember, the key here is desperation. 
 

3. Any team trying to tank for a top pick aren’t likely going trade anyone decent under 25 if they want to build a good team in the future.
 

So I’m looking for PF or C, 25 or older, good enough to become a top four big with JC, Clint, and OO, and they are currently playing for WAS, SAC, IND, and POR.

 

So ladies and germs, here’s my list:

Nurkic (POR, 28 yo, $15.5)

Turner (IND, 26 yo, $18)

Sabonis (SAC, 26 yo, $18.5)

and maybe even Taj Gibson (WAS, 107 yo, $5.2)

 

Most likely trade candidates from the Hawks?

Bogd at $18 would work well for 4/5 of this list. This would likely depend on if AJ or Vit does better than expected this year, or if Bogi has a down year and the receiving team is getting a cold Bogi. 

JHol at $6.3 for Taj and change could work too, or Culver at $6.4 if his contract is guaranteed. 
 

Well, I told you you would hate it. Who do you think would be a REALISTIC target at a position of need? 

Edited October 23, 2022 by bird_dirt

[sturt]

13 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

Culver at $6.4 if his contract is guaranteed

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/07/2022-23-nba-two-way-contract-tracker.html

 

19 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

1. My first thought is where do we need help the most? I’m thinking solid depth at PF or C. 

Right.

But shouldn't #2, then, be, which of the 4 bigs in the rotation you're going to push out of the rotation or off the roster?

Because we can agree that the head coach is going to play 10 at most in the post-season, right?

[NBASupes]

We don't have a tradable player outside of Justin Holiday who we likely aren't trading so I'll say this is a wishful thinking thread. I do think we could use a vet at the 4. JJ is a negative in all of our lineups, hopefully, he turns it around.

[JayBirdHawk]

11 hours ago, bird_dirt said:

So ladies and germs, here’s my list:

Nurkic (POR, 28 yo, $15.5)

Turner (IND, 26 yo, $18)

Sabonis (SAC, 26 yo, $18.5)

and maybe even Taj Gibson (WAS, 107 yo, $5.2)

 

Most likely trade candidates from the Hawks?

Bogd at $18 would work well for 4/5 of this list. This would likely depend on if AJ or Vit does better than expected this year, or if Bogi has a down year and the receiving team is getting a cold Bogi. 

JHol at $6.3 for Taj and change could work too, or Culver at $6.4 if his contract is guaranteed. 

Regarding the Players:

Nurkic - he is interesting @Spud2nique mentioned him. I don't know what his trade value is.

Turner - Indy is looking for a real asset for him, what/who  are you trading for a few months rental (FA at the end of the season)

Sabonis - Kings traded Haliburton for him, it will cost a lot - they would probably want JJ+

Gibson - as you said he's 107 years old  

Note: Culver is on a 2way GL contract, so the $6.4 mil is in incorrect 

Dec. 15th - Frank Kaminsky and Aaron Holiday  are eligible to be traded $2.4 million and $1.9 million respectively.

Until AJ plays some minutes I wouldn't pencil him in as Bogi's replacement. If Bogi is still injured we'd likely be paying to move him.

JHol is our only moveable piece at the moment, but until Bogi returns it's less than likely he returns.

Hawks are current under the tax by $1.7 million - in My opinion any trade that will take us over the LT this year will not happen unless it's for a real big name difference maker.  Consider the Warriors alone have a tax bill of $483, divide that by say 22 teams not in the tax that's a $21 mill payment to the Hawks (and that doesn't include the other 8 teams that will be paying the tax). I don't see the Hawks going into the tax by a little this year and missing that payment and having the repeater tax in play.

This is how much salary the Hawks can take back in salary:

Outgoing Salary	Incoming Salary Allowed
$0 - $6,533,333	175% of the outgoing salary, plus $100,000
$6,533,334 - $19.6 million	Outgoing salary + $5,000,000
>$19.6 million	125% of the outgoing salary + $100,000

 

[JayBirdHawk]

8 hours ago, Jdawgflow said:

Another thought I have right now as my youngest is having severe growing pains in his legs (which are no joke for any of you lucky enough to not have kids with these), I know who I want us to trade for.

we need the Moose goggles back for a backup center who can shoot 3s.  Only owed 3.5mil each of the next two seasons.  Not exactly sure how the trade would go down but he is my choice for now after a quick lookup.

The only thing I can think of is, Dec 15th - Frank Kaminsky($2.4 mil) for Moose. Hawks remain under the LT.

[bird_dirt]

15 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

The only thing I can think of is, Dec 15th - Frank Kaminsky($2.4 mil) for Moose. Hawks remain under the LT.

That doesn’t really move any needles for anyone. 
 

My thought would be dependent on AJ showing out, and Bogi not. 
If that were to happen, we could move with AJ filling that sniper role, while Bogi is a great $18m trade piece for a team trying to tank. 
 

If there’s it’s a swap based on Bogi and above, we could still remain under the line. 
A lot of If-Thens gotta happen, I know. It’s been a while since I’ve cranked up my Dieselputer, and I think it’s still running on Windows 95, but I think there might be something here. 

[Spud2nique]

26 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Moose

I’m ready for it!

[JayBirdHawk]

4 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

My thought would be dependent on AJ showing out, and Bogi not. 
If that were to happen, we could move with AJ filling that sniper role, while Bogi is a great $18m trade piece for a team trying to tank.

Nate has to play him first. Seems he might be getting the JJ treatment this year (both Fields and Koonin alluded to playing in GL).

Bogi has a player option for next season so we'd have to pay at least a 1st to dump him if he's still injured.

[sturt]

10 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

My thought would be dependent on AJ showing out, and Bogi not. 

Well, but we have Justin... if those two can't show out, then who's to say Justin won't?

[Spud2nique]

Just now, sturt said:

who's to say Justin won't?

You did.

[sturt]

1. @Spud2nique I'm surprised you didn't read that with the dripping sarcasm intended (, or at least it doesn't come across based on that post).

(And even a little more surprised that Jay didn't apparently pick up on it, tbh.)

2. But more objectively, it's not actually true that I said "Justin won't."

Stating a likelihood based on math is one thing. Stating a prediction is another.

Why is it so hard for otherwise intelligent people to understand the difference b/t saying "the likelihood is lousy, and we need a better option," and saying "hi, my name is Nostradamus, and I can tell you exactly what will happen"... ?

I can't cay Justin won't. No one can. (And of course, the converse is also true.)

What motivated my comment was to highlight that people generally get it that Justin is (... today, though maybe/maybe not later as we progress through the season...) the weakest link in the rotation...

 

And likely... there's that word again... to be weak enough to be the difference in the bucket or two or three during any given game that is the difference b/t winning and losing.

 

"That's a little dramatic, don't you think, sturt?"

Mind you, little things count in a game where, if 200 are scored, and the good guys win by 10, 105-95... that means the final result was decided by a mere 5% of the points scored... and... that had just 2-3 possessions went differently, and instead of the Hawks scoring when the Heat didn't, the opposite happened... that 10 point win could be a 1 point loss... the Hawks missing two 3 point shots, when the Heat made a 3 point shot and a lay-up. Good guys 99... Miami 100.

So. Nope. Not dramatic at all. That's the reality.

 

You/we can't be satisfied in this game with merely being "maybe good enough." You/we have to put the best possible product on the floor and on the bench because you/we just can't know how any given game may evolve... and that given game may be the difference between home court advantage in the post season or not, and/or playing a lesser team in the post season or not.

Where is any of that wrong?

[Spud2nique]

48 minutes ago, sturt said:

 

1. @Spud2nique I'm surprised you didn't read that with the dripping sarcasm intended (, or at least it doesn't come across based on that post).

 

Us OG’s here at squawk, we use the green font for that. Hmm, surprised you didn’t know that. 
 

[warcore]

5 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Bogi has a player option for next season so we'd have to pay at least a 1st to dump him if he's still injured.

Not if he's going to a tanking team. I think bird dirt is trying to say that would benefit their tank plans because they'd trade away something that helps them win for something sitting on the pine injured. In this scenario I believe he's assuming Bogi is injured for the season.... so a what-if scenario. 

I think it's still possible Ayton comes here once he's allowed to be traded. 

[sturt]

3 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Us OG’s

Spose that means I'm not an OG... whatever that is... ... ominous gangsters?

 

[sturt]

2 hours ago, warcore said:

he's assuming Bogi is injured for the season

If that were to emerge as accurate, Fields will have alotta splainin to do.