NBA Expansion pre-conversation

[thecampster]

Its going to happen folks, sooner rather than later.  The last time this happened, teams were allowed to protect 8 players (I'm assuming 10 this time around).

 

So lets assume we can protect 10 players.  Who on the current roster are you leaving unprotected?  Now remember there is a strategy to this. The two expansion teams will have to operate under the same rules in team construction. Leaving a player unprotected may hurt their feelings. Leaving a high salary player unprotected risks losing them. Leaving an undeveloped, low salary player unprotected could be a disaster.  This is a tool to deal with bad salary, bad decision but also could unmake your franchise in a bad way.  So step up or shut up.  List the 10 current Hawks you protect with a brief bit on your strategy.

[JayBirdHawk]

10 Keepers
PG: Trae Young, Kobe Bufkin
SG: Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovich
SF: DeAndre Hunter, AJ Griffin, Mouhamed Gueye
PF: Jalen Johnson, Saddiq Bey
C - Onyeka Okongwu

[NBASupes]

It's too early to say. I am pretty sure by 2025 or 2026 when expansion is here, teams will be more selective with their players.

[thecampster]

I'll start -

Protected - Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Okongwu, AJ, JJ, Gueye, Bey, Capela, Lundy, Hunter.

Unprotected - Bogi, Mills, Bufkin, Fernando, Matthews, Krejci, Martin, Norris, Mills

 

Strategy, of all of our higher priced players, I'm betting Bogi is least likely to get drafted at his salary. I'm betting Bruno is taken because he's a bargain, Probably Vit, Maybe Bufkin and Norris.

 

I see the Bufkin pick as a huge blunder and wish we would have drafted Cam Whitmore on draft night (I was disappointed and early results show me to be right). I have no problem if he's lost in the expansion draft. My only players in this exposure I would regret are Norris and Vit.  I'd honestly expose Bruno because I think he's grown and deserves a chance at minutes.

 

Only waiver was to expose Capela or not.  I can't be 100% sure he wouldn't be lost to an expansion draft and if losing him, I'd prefer to get an asset for it.

6 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

10 Keepers
PG: Trae Young, Kobe Bufkin
SG: Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovich
SF: DeAndre Hunter, AJ Griffin, Mouhamed Gueye
PF: Jalen Johnson, Saddiq Bey
C - Onyeka Okongwu

Play fair, give your reasoning/strategy.

Edited July 15, 2023 by thecampster

[thecampster]

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

It's too early to say. I am pretty sure by 2025 or 2026 when expansion is here, teams will be more selective with their players.

Hey play the game or sit in the corner.

[sillent]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

I'll start -

Protected - Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Okongwu, AJ, JJ, Gueye, Bey, Capela, Lundy, Hunter.

Unprotected - Bogi, Mills, Bufkin, Fernando, Matthews, Krejci, Martin, Norris, Mills

 

Strategy, of all of our higher priced players, I'm betting Bogi is least likely to get drafted at his salary. I'm betting Bruno is taken because he's a bargain, Probably Vit, Maybe Bufkin and Norris.

 

I see the Bufkin pick as a huge blunder and wish we would have drafted Cam Whitmore on draft night (I was disappointed and early results show me to be right). I have no problem if he's lost in the expansion draft. My only players in this exposure I would regret are Norris and Vit.  I'd honestly expose Bruno because I think he's grown and deserves a chance at minutes.

 

Only waiver was to expose Capela or not.  I can't be 100% sure he wouldn't be lost to an expansion draft and if losing him, I'd prefer to get an asset for it.

Play fair, give your reasoning/strategy.

I was with you almost all the way except for protecting Lundy over Bufkin.

As much as I love Lundy I think he will go under the radar and not get picked.

Kobe Bufkin on the other hand will be a star (in my opinion) and even if he was someone we traded later on because of redundancy or whatever he would have more value.

Mock my words about Kobe but watch what I say. Trae's summer league was surprisingly more trash than Bufkin's but the intangibles are there.

Other than that I agree with all your strategies including the Bogi one. I honestly think they may reach for a Bogi before Lundy but even then we have a replacement in AJ. Unfortunately that would be the risk of an expansion draft but like you said they may look elsewhere for their choices before spending that money on an aging Bogi.

[Hawkish]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

Its going to happen folks, sooner rather than later.  The last time this happened, teams were allowed to protect 8 players (I'm assuming 10 this time around).

 

So lets assume we can protect 10 players.  Who on the current roster are you leaving unprotected?  Now remember there is a strategy to this. The two expansion teams will have to operate under the same rules in team construction. Leaving a player unprotected may hurt their feelings. Leaving a high salary player unprotected risks losing them. Leaving an undeveloped, low salary player unprotected could be a disaster.  This is a tool to deal with bad salary, bad decision but also could unmake your franchise in a bad way.  So step up or shut up.  List the 10 current Hawks you protect with a brief bit on your strategy.

Why not try to upgrade the top end of the roster with 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 deals to get it to 10 strong where you aren’t concerned about veterans 11-15 being taken?

Trae/Bufkin/Mills

DJ/Bogi/Griffin/Lundy

Hunter/Bey

JJ/Gueye

Capela/OO

That’s thirteen right there.  A 3-for-1 deal would get us to eleven (assuming our FO just cannot proceed without a third “name” player added).  I’m not a proponent of Towns (nor do I want to trade Mills), but I’ll use him for example.

Trae/Bufkin

DJ/Griffin/Lundy

JJ/Bey

KAT/Gueye

OO

There is ten. Bogi would have to be the one “risked” with the hope an expansion team wouldn’t want him.

 

However, we have the TPE to use, so that may require another 2-for-1 trade or making Lundy available.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Hawkish

[sillent]

1 hour ago, Hawkish said:

Why not try to upgrade the top end of the roster with 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 deals to get it to 10 strong where you aren’t concerned about veterans 11-15 being taken?

Trae/Bufkin/Mills

DJ/Bogi/Griffin/Lundy

Hunter/Bey

JJ/Gueye

Capela/OO

That’s thirteen right there.  A 3-for-1 deal would get us to eleven (assuming our FO just cannot proceed without a third “name” player added).  I’m not a proponent of Towns (nor do I want to trade Mills), but I’ll use him for example.

Trae/Bufkin

DJ/Griffin/Lundy

JJ/Bey

KAT/Gueye

OO

There is ten. Bogi would have to be the one “risked” with the hope an expansion team wouldn’t want him.

 

However, we have the TPE to use, so that may require another 2-for-1 trade or making Lundy available.

I get where you're going. You didn't quite solve the problem in your example but I get where you're going.

I'd still stick with what I got (which was a leech off of @thecampster idea) because I think that strategy would work. They might not even look our way as far as players to grab out of what's available so I wouldn't want to make moves out of fear but if it made sense and was worthwhile I wouldn't oppose.

[thecampster]

2 hours ago, Hawkish said:

Why not try to upgrade the top end of the roster with 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 deals to get it to 10 strong where you aren’t concerned about veterans 11-15 being taken?

Trae/Bufkin/Mills

DJ/Bogi/Griffin/Lundy

Hunter/Bey

JJ/Gueye

Capela/OO

That’s thirteen right there.  A 3-for-1 deal would get us to eleven (assuming our FO just cannot proceed without a third “name” player added).  I’m not a proponent of Towns (nor do I want to trade Mills), but I’ll use him for example.

Trae/Bufkin

DJ/Griffin/Lundy

JJ/Bey

KAT/Gueye

OO

There is ten. Bogi would have to be the one “risked” with the hope an expansion team wouldn’t want him.

 

However, we have the TPE to use, so that may require another 2-for-1 trade or making Lundy available.

Stay on track. I said it happens today, who are you protecting. Not a conversation on how to protect against it.  Like Supes, play the game or sit in the corner.

[thecampster]

2 hours ago, sillent said:

I was with you almost all the way except for protecting Lundy over Bufkin.

As much as I love Lundy I think he will go under the radar and not get picked.

Kobe Bufkin on the other hand will be a star (in my opinion) and even if he was someone we traded later on because of redundancy or whatever he would have more value.

Mock my words about Kobe but watch what I say. Trae's summer league was surprisingly more trash than Bufkin's but the intangibles are there.

Other than that I agree with all your strategies including the Bogi one. I honestly think they may reach for a Bogi before Lundy but even then we have a replacement in AJ. Unfortunately that would be the risk of an expansion draft but like you said they may look elsewhere for their choices before spending that money on an aging Bogi.

Trae's summer league, I still saw him playing eyes up, etc. Still liked what I saw, hated the results.  I'm not liking what I'm seeing from Kobe. He seems like he's at his best trying to play 1v1.... he may be better at what he's doing but I'm not of fan of that playstyle.

[Gray Mule]

Thank you JayBirdHawk, I agree with your picks.  The reason you picked them?  Because you believe in them!  I do too.  Two new teams.  15 players each = 30 players, one from each of the present 30 teams.

I assume that's the correct way.  These new teams should have a G League team the year before they do their picking from the NBA teams.  Remember this season past, there was one G League team of high school kids who went pro and payed for that team, then were drafted this summer.

[JayBirdHawk]

4 hours ago, thecampster said:

Play fair, give your reasoning/strategy.

I kept the guys that I think would have more trade value going forward, can play different roles/positions, gives us more flexibility in varying lineups. I also wanted to reduce salary so it was either CC or Bogi - kept Bogi: I think his contract is a steal and his skillset much more in demand. 

[Hawkish]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

Stay on track. I said it happens today, who are you protecting. Not a conversation on how to protect against it.  Like Supes, play the game or sit in the corner.

Trae/Bufkin

DJ/Griffin/Bogi

Hunter/Bey

JJ/Gueye

OO

As others have said, trade value, potential, and/or reasonable contracts are the reasoning.  I’d just have to hope Capela/Lundy survive. I’d hate to lose Terrell Patrick-Evans (TPE). He had potential to become an important piece.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Hawkish

[Phunkabilly]

Think I'm in agreement with Jaybird and Hawkish, and would keep the same 10.  To me, there's a clear top 11 worthy of keeping (Capela being the other).  I'd really, really hate to expose Capela, but I don't think I could bring myself to exposing any of the other 10.  I think Capela would have like a 95% chance of getting selected in the expansion draft, but so would the 10 we're keeping, I think.  I was considering keeping Capela and exposing Gueye, just because he has a chance to survive since he did last into the 2nd round of this year's draft and he hasn't had much exposure yet.  MAYBE an expansion team would overlook him due to the sheer volume of similar type of players that would be available to them.  But I really like his skillset and think he's the perfect developmental big for the Hawks, so ultimately I don't think I would risk exposing him.  As others have said, Bogi is a possibility as well, but I think his shooting and overall offensive game is too important for a team trying to compete for a 'chip like the Hawks.

[bird_dirt]

Make it 8, there’s not enough pain picking ten. Many teams don’t even go ten men deep games.  
Heck, make it 6 or 7 and let’s see how real it he in here. 

[bird_dirt]

3 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

Make it 8, there’s not enough pain picking ten. Many teams don’t even go ten men deep games.  
Heck, make it 6 or 7 and let’s see how real it he in here. 

Top 6: Trae, DJM, Hunter, JJ, OO, AJ. Top starters each position plus a sixth man microwave.

7: Bey. It was him or Bogi, but Bey is younger and less injury prone.

8: Gueye. I like his apparent potential, multi-positional player, too. 

Keep it young and fresh with room to grow. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Trae, Dejounte - cornerstones of the team and the leaders of the squad.

JJ, AJ ,OO - future starters and possible tradeable pieces. Hopefully one will surpass expectations.

Hunter - if I couldn't flip him, keep him until AJ is ready to take his spot

Bufkin - at the most, i see him as a 6th man type. Keep him in case AJ is only a shooter and nothing else

Gueye - I like his versatility. Definitely keep him around for development.

Vit - another person I'd keep developing, due to his passing ability. He can defend as well.

Bruno - A coach is going to figure out that Bruno's passing + screening are untapped elements to his game.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Darn. You said if this happened today.

OK well drop Vit and keep Bogi.

[sillent]

7 hours ago, Hawkish said:

Trae/Bufkin

DJ/Griffin/Bogi

Hunter/Bey

JJ/Gueye

OO

As others have said, trade value, potential, and/or reasonable contracts are the reasoning.  I’d just have to hope Capela/Lundy survive. I’d hate to lose Terrell Patrick-Evans (TPE). He had potential to become an important piece.

I'll be honest Capela is probably gone as a good starter piece for an up and coming team. If you're doing it for salary like @JayBirdHawk I understand but when building an expansion team you look for bargain pieces like that to give your build a head start.

Unfortunately @Gray Mule I don't think it works that way as far as 1 player per team but that would seem fair I suppose. I think how they actually do it is build their team from the 30 teams available best on players available and salary. On a 15 man roster if 10 were spared they could choose 5 players from 1 team if they like which is why most teams attempt to strategize and leave the least bait possible.

I could be wrong but I do remember it used to be like this. They may have/create different rules now though.

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by sillent

[bird_dirt]

21 hours ago, sillent said:

I'll be honest Capela is probably gone as a good starter piece for an up and coming team. If you're doing it for salary like @JayBirdHawk I understand but when building an expansion team you look for bargain pieces like that to give your build a head start.

Unfortunately @Gray Mule I don't think it works that way as far as 1 player per team but that would seem fair I suppose. I think how they actually do it is build their team from the 30 teams available best on players available and salary. On a 15 man roster if 10 were spared they could choose 5 players from 1 team if they like which is why most teams attempt to strategize and leave the least bait possible.

I could be wrong but I do remember it used to be like this. They may have/create different rules now though.

 

I think only one player per team can be selected in an expansion draft. 
Sometimes teams will get out in front of it and preemptively trade a player to an expansion team with an agreement in place that they wouldn’t take one of their players in the draft, that way they aren’t surprised by who is taken and they can come away with an asset like a draft pick.