To my Siakam Fans....

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Huh? Hunter got his extension (10/17/22) before AJ played one NBA minute.

You're right I stand corrected...

Not even the Hunter extension can be blamed on AJ. 

 

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

How many times have Siakam destroyed Collins head to head, leading to a Toronto victory?

Is that even related??

Come on @TheNorthCydeRises, make a reasonable argument.   A head to head doesn't prove anything.   Moreover, as I said, Siakam is JC with more attempts.   Of course he should win head to head...  he has more attempts. 

Since we're comparing 1st options and 4th options...   Can we go with the Steph Curry vs. Dillon Brooks saga next?

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Just now, Diesel said:

Siakam is JC with more attempts.   

 C'mon man, you can't really believe that. Siakam has a more varied offensive skillset than JC, he has a bigger tool bag and has been the better defender for most of their careers. 

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Babcock traded Dominique when we were the #1 team in the East and the #2 team in the league. 

I want to trade a mid-level player ( Hunter ) and rookies with "potential", in order to obtain an All-NBA player.

Two totally different scenarios.

Yes, the scenerio is different but the thinking just as flawed. 

Babcock wanted to make a move that risked the immediate future of the Hawks in order to make sure that we were set in the future with a younger player... even though the risk was very high. 

You want to make a move that risk the future of the Hawks in order to bring in an allstar talent even though the risk is very high. 

Same flawed thinking.   The flaw is that you miss the risk being very high.  Much like Babcock, you believe that it's a done deal that regardless of fit the player coming in will stay. 

It's an interesting read...  It tells how Manning left our 25 Million on the table to take Phoenix'  1 Million dollar deal. 

Quote

Let’s make a list, he says sensibly. Whenever the sheer weight of logic crushes you, make a list.

One this side of the ledger, he says, we will put our pluses: the players, fans, organization, facility, weather, lifestyle, etc.

On the other side, there is only one thing: money.

Other teams are offering Manning $25 million. Colangelo figures he has a shot, but he has been an NBA executive a long time, which means he has seen players sneer at better offers and throw millions of dollars back in his face as if it were Monopoly money. This is the first time he has ever found himself trying to persuade a player to trade $24 million for a bunch of intangibles.

They talk all afternoon.

Finally, Colangelo says they have to talk to reporters, who know the player is in town.

To Colangelo’s amazement, the player turns to his agent and, as the Sun president remembers it, says, “Well, this is where I want to be.”

And that’s how Danny Manning joined the Suns.

Closing the deal, Colangelo suggested that Manning’s agent call Atlanta to tell Stan Kasten, the Hawks’ president. According to Colangelo, Kasten sputtered that Manning couldn’t do that, the Suns didn’t even have a slot!

This is the risk of trading our future for a rental.   You ignore it the same way that Babcock and Kasten did.  The man has already said that he will not resign with the team that trades for him.  WTF else do you need??

 

 

 

[Diesel]

9 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 C'mon man, you can't really believe that. Siakam has a more varied offensive skillset than JC, he has a bigger tool bag and has been the better defender for most of their careers. 

Worse shooter their whole career... even last year when JC was ailing getting through his bad finger.   I will give Siakam the dribble and passing.. but how much passing do you expect him to do on Trae's team?  Let me help all of yall...  Trae is not going to play off ball.  You wouldn't ask Isaiah or John Stockton to play off ball.. why the hell should Trae play off ball.  He's not Curry. 

This is part of what makes Siakam such a bad fit.

He's a less efficient scorer than JC.  We don't need his passing or running the offense.  He's high usage. 

Trae is not going to play off ball and Siakam will not like being the PNR man 100% of the time.  Plus whether it's CC or OO, the lane is not going to be open for what Siakam likes to do unless we play small ball. 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

11 minutes ago, Diesel said:

but how much passing do you expect him to do on Trae's team? 

............More than we have been getting and actually need from the front court position of DH/JC/CC.  This is not even about Trae off ball....this is more about when teams try to take Trae out of the game having a player in the front court that can do something with the ball - score himself or set up a play.

When teams deny Trae the ball in the backcourt, knowing you have that guy, instead of waiting for Trae to come free and give him the ball back.  It allows us to play faster and not against a set defense.

[Diesel]

Just for grins.....

The fit test...  A look at JC vs. Siakam vs. KAT...  and how they get their points and their efficiencies. 

 

Pascal Siakam from 82 games.

John Collins from 82 games.

KAT from 82 games. 

Note the particulars above.   A lot has been made about Siakam's ability to create for himself.   That's a great ability but is that what we need?  I suggest that Siakam's ability to create for himself leads to below 40% on his Ast'd percentages.   To me, it's a clear indication that he runs the offense and he needs the ball in his hands. 

Over 60% of the time, he has the ball in his hand.   Does that fit with Trae?

Notice JC and KAT Ast'd percentages.   More of what you would expect from a PF. 

 

 

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

............More than we have been getting and actually need from the front court position of DH/JC/CC.

The front court problem is really DH.  Mainly because he has the ball more.   JC took 10 freaking attempts last year.   He barely touched the damn ball.   CC  had 8 attempts.    DH took 12.3 attempts. with .2 assist more than JC and .3 assist more than CC.   Now if CC never passes the ball then DH who takes over 4 more shots than CC  is the worst passer on the team. 

But what is Team Assists anyway?

 

We finished 17th.  San Antonio, Indiana, Washington, Charlotte,  all finished ahead of us...  None of them made the playoffs. 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

14 minutes ago, Diesel said:

The front court problem is really DH.

The entire front courts inability to offer any sort of play making capability is problematic no matter which way you slice it.

I'm simply talking about if a play breaks down can these guys give us some play making in some capacity vs waiting to hand the ball back to Trae to reset the offense. Make the offense more functional and providing alternate ways to provide more.

Total assists 

JC - 85 in 2130 minutes

JJ - 83 in 1042 minutes.

CC - 58 in 1730 minutes

OO - 81 in 1849 minutes

And again, I'm not talking about being a ball handler to initiate the offense, but being capable of making reads depending on the defense to assist another player.

[AHF]

@Diesel - You are either really overrating what JC did or underrating Siakam.  Siakam isn't my favorite player in the league by a long shot but they haven't been close in years without even talking defense.  Siakam is an obvious and significant upgrade in talent.  JC has had a big chance to do more things over the last few years other than run to the rim but he hasn't shown himself to be capable of really anything but rim running (which he is great at but which he and CC can't do at the same time) and taking open jumpers.  He is assisted on almost every shot he takes (even moreso than CC and every other rotation player on the team each of the last two years which was all I looked at).  

I loved rooting for JC but I feel like trying to spin him as a better Siakam with less usage is a huge stretch.  If they are making the same money, every team in the league takes Siakam over JC 10 out of 10 times.

 

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

The entire front courts inability to offer any sort of play making capability is problematic no matter which way you slice it.

I'm simply talking about if a play breaks down can these guys give us some play making in some capacity vs waiting to hand the ball back to Trae to reset the offense. Make the offense more functional and providing alternate ways to provide more.

Total assists 

JC - 85 in 2130 minutes

JJ - 83 in 1042 minutes.

CC - 58 in 1730 minutes

OO - 81 in 1849 minutes

And again, I'm not talking about being a ball handler to initiate the offense, but being capable of making reads depending on the defense to assist another player.

You will have to show me the benefit of front court passing aside from Jokic and Embiid.   I would like to see more passing out of our Sf spot but to have a PF who is hogging the ball and making assists doesn't help our cause.   Or atleast you have to show me how it does.   We're 17th in team passing and we finished better than more than a few teams who were above us on that list.   As far as efficiency, we were 6th in the league in A/TO.   

It sounds nice to have passing from three and 4 position on the floor until you see Trae in the corner doing nothing but being a decoy.... making plans to go play somewhere where he is used correctly. 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, Diesel said:

You will have to show me the benefit of front court passing aside from Jokic and Embiid.   I would like to see more passing out of our Sf spot but to have a PF who is hogging the ball and making assists doesn't help our cause.   Or atleast you have to show me how it does.   We're 17th in team passing and we finished better than more than a few teams who were above us on that list.   As far as efficiency, we were 6th in the league in A/TO.   

It sounds nice to have passing from three and 4 position on the floor until you see Trae in the corner doing nothing but being a decoy.... making plans to go play somewhere where he is used correctly. 

 

I think when we had a more versatile Gallo on the team it helped.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 hours ago, Diesel said:

None of that suggests that the Bogi extension has anything to do with AJ.   AJ isn't even projected to play the same position as Bogi.  You would have had a better argument saying that Hunter's extension is due to Aj's bad second half.   But Bogi's extension is due to the fact that Bogi is the best three point shooter on our team.  Our spacing didn't get better until we got Bey and he was able to log some minutes.   So the loss of Bogi would have been catastrophic for our team. 

As far as AJ.. he hit the rookie wall.   Expected.  Nothing else to conclude. 

 

AJ played games to close the season.  And he wasn't that bad.

 

3 hours ago, Diesel said:

At best, he replicates what JC did. 

Here's the for sure.  For sure, if he's paired with Trae, he won't be able to run the offense like he does in Toronto.   He knows that.  I know that.  That's why he doesn't want to play in Atlanta.   That's why he won't resign with us. Specifically. 

Tell me.. who is going to suffer in order to give Siakam more shots?   He shot ~9 more attempts than JC did.   Where are those 9 attempts coming from.     Hell, I will make it easier...  Where are those 6 attempts coming from?   Is Trae giving up 6 attempts?  Is DJ giving up 6 attempts. 

We talking DJ's 17.8 attempts going to 11.8 attempts and his 20.5 ppg going to ....about 13.6 ppg?

We talking about Trae's 19 attempts going to 13 attempts and his  26.2 ppg going to about 17.9 ppg?

OK.. let's split the difference.  Each of them give up 3 attempts per game...

DJ = 17.5 ppg;   Trae = 22.05 ppg...  So that Siakam could come in with ~20 ppg?

You think everybody is going to be cool with that?

 

 

You're not good at this type of basketball math Diesel.  We've gone through this before.

You need to write out how many shots the entire team will get, before we go down this rabbit hole again.

I'm a good dude, so I'm going to give you some starting points to go by.

 

Hawks averaged 92 shots per game last season ( 3rd in the league, by the way )

Quin goes with a 9 to 10 man rotation.

Whomever you think would be on the team in a Siakam trade, let's see if you can come up with how many shots per game our main 9 or 10 man rotation will get.  We know Hunter would be one of the guys traded. Pick one of the kids + Mills, and set your 9 - 10 man rotation out of the remaining guys.

Then come up with how many shots each guy would take per game. 

And make it = 92 shots.

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 hours ago, Diesel said:

Is that even related??

Come on @TheNorthCydeRises, make a reasonable argument.   A head to head doesn't prove anything.   Moreover, as I said, Siakam is JC with more attempts.   Of course he should win head to head...  he has more attempts. 

Since we're comparing 1st options and 4th options...   Can we go with the Steph Curry vs. Dillon Brooks saga next?

 

 

LMAO . . you're the one who brought up the head to head graphic.  Why did you bring up the comparison, if you didn't want me to compare the two?  LMAO!

I feel like the dude behind the camera, when his little sister was chastising him for "screaming" at her.

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 hours ago, Diesel said:

Yes, the scenerio is different but the thinking just as flawed. 

Babcock wanted to make a move that risked the immediate future of the Hawks in order to make sure that we were set in the future with a younger player... even though the risk was very high. 

You want to make a move that risk the future of the Hawks in order to bring in an allstar talent even though the risk is very high. 

Same flawed thinking.   The flaw is that you miss the risk being very high.  Much like Babcock, you believe that it's a done deal that regardless of fit the player coming in will stay. 

It's an interesting read...  It tells how Manning left our 25 Million on the table to take Phoenix'  1 Million dollar deal. 

This is the risk of trading our future for a rental.   You ignore it the same way that Babcock and Kasten did.  The man has already said that he will not resign with the team that trades for him.  WTF else do you need??

 

 

 

 

On the flip side Diesel, even if he was willing to sign an extension, you wouldn't do the deal because you don't think he's that good. You believe our young talent is a better fit for the team, than he'd be . . . despite none of our young talent even cracking the starting lineup on a consistent basis.  You are entitled to your opinion.

But my stance is what it is.

Losing Hunter and AJ ( or even Bufkin ) is nowhere near catastrophic to this team's future, in my opinion.  Even if Siakam walked at the end of the year, the void that Siakam leaves is filled by JJ at a much smaller level, and we retain Bey for the AJ/Hunter role.  Then you go out in free agency next season to see if you can either find another high level talent to target ( KAT ), or you add a veteran complimentary piece.

If we keep AJ, I'm hope I'm wrong about him and he becomes our 3rd best player next season.  He'll have to be extraordinary to get the type of minutes to reach that level on the team.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

............More than we have been getting and actually need from the front court position of DH/JC/CC.  This is not even about Trae off ball....this is more about when teams try to take Trae out of the game having a player in the front court that can do something with the ball - score himself or set up a play.

When teams deny Trae the ball in the backcourt, knowing you have that guy, instead of waiting for Trae to come free and give him the ball back.  It allows us to play faster and not against a set defense.

 

3 hours ago, Diesel said:

Just for grins.....

The fit test...  A look at JC vs. Siakam vs. KAT...  and how they get their points and their efficiencies. 

 

Pascal Siakam from 82 games.

John Collins from 82 games.

KAT from 82 games. 

Note the particulars above.   A lot has been made about Siakam's ability to create for himself.   That's a great ability but is that what we need?  I suggest that Siakam's ability to create for himself leads to below 40% on his Ast'd percentages.   To me, it's a clear indication that he runs the offense and he needs the ball in his hands. 

Over 60% of the time, he has the ball in his hand.   Does that fit with Trae?

Notice JC and KAT Ast'd percentages.   More of what you would expect from a PF. 

 

 

 

It's exactly what we need, for the exact reasons @JayBirdHawk listed.

Siakam's on ball usage will drop if he's paired with Trae.  But so will Trae's on ball usage.

Both Siakam and Trae have to work way too hard to get their shots at times.  In Quin's offense, they will compliment each other and use great passing to get people open looks, including each other.

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

54 minutes ago, Diesel said:

You will have to show me the benefit of front court passing aside from Jokic and Embiid.   I would like to see more passing out of our Sf spot but to have a PF who is hogging the ball and making assists doesn't help our cause.   Or atleast you have to show me how it does.   We're 17th in team passing and we finished better than more than a few teams who were above us on that list.   As far as efficiency, we were 6th in the league in A/TO.   

It sounds nice to have passing from three and 4 position on the floor until you see Trae in the corner doing nothing but being a decoy.... making plans to go play somewhere where he is used correctly. 

 

 

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

@Diesel - You are either really overrating what JC did or underrating Siakam.  Siakam isn't my favorite player in the league by a long shot but they haven't been close in years without even talking defense.  Siakam is an obvious and significant upgrade in talent.  JC has had a big chance to do more things over the last few years other than run to the rim but he hasn't shown himself to be capable of really anything but rim running (which he is great at but which he and CC can't do at the same time) and taking open jumpers.  He is assisted on almost every shot he takes (even moreso than CC and every other rotation player on the team each of the last two years which was all I looked at).  

I loved rooting for JC but I feel like trying to spin him as a better Siakam with less usage is a huge stretch.  If they are making the same money, every team in the league takes Siakam over JC 10 out of 10 times.

 

We speak greatly about the difference in JC and Siakam.   I'm not saying JC is as good as Siakam, what I am saying is that there is not a great difference as you would believe listening.

Even Defense.

Last season.

JC defensive rating = 115.2

Siakam defensive rating = 113.3

JC Defensive win shares 2.1

PS Defensive win shares 2.6

Then when you consider DBPM... highlighted in yellow....

 

So.. Im not seeing how Siakam's defense is miles ahead of JC's.  Maybe you can explain it better without stats??

As far as offense.  Siakam gets far more usage.. but JC shoots better.   Blame it on Trae... Cool.. JC shoots better.  Blame it on Derozen's daughter giving Siakam nightmares... Cool.. JC shoots better. 

I'm not saying that JC is the better player... Just saying that Siakam has the benefit of being the first option on his team and he's a good passer. 

 

 

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I think when we had a more versatile Gallo on the team it helped.

Gallo was a shooter!?!!??!!  Give me a guy who can hit 42% from 3 and my offense will be a lot better!!

 

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

On the flip side Diesel, even if he was willing to sign an extension, you wouldn't do the deal because you don't think he's that good. You believe our young talent is a better fit for the team, than he'd be . . . despite none of our young talent even cracking the starting lineup on a consistent basis.  You are entitled to your opinion.

But my stance is what it is.

Losing Hunter and AJ ( or even Bufkin ) is nowhere near catastrophic to this team's future, in my opinion.  Even if Siakam walked at the end of the year, the void that Siakam leaves is filled by JJ at a much smaller level, and we retain Bey for the AJ/Hunter role.  Then you go out in free agency next season to see if you can either find another high level talent to target ( KAT ), or you add a veteran complimentary piece.

If we keep AJ, I'm hope I'm wrong about him and he becomes our 3rd best player next season.  He'll have to be extraordinary to get the type of minutes to reach that level on the team.

No... if he signed the extension, I would do the deal.   Because at this point he becomes tradable. 

He doesn't fit.   It will take a lot of trades to make him fit.   However, signed, he becomes a great trade target.. so if he doesn't work out and he won't because of spacing ....  we can move him easier than Toronto will be able to move him without a deal.  BUt He's not going to sign the extension with us... He's a rental and he made that known.

I would even give AJ if he signed the extension.